olivLaw · US equity research
RedCloud Holdings plc RCT
Retail-Retail Stores, NEC · SIC 5990 · Vertical: Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990)
RedCloud Holdings plc, a England and Wales company, develops the RedAI infrastructure that facilitates B2B trade in FMCG products between brands, distributors and retailers in emerging markets such as Nigeria and South Africa. Revenue rose modestly in fiscal 2025 while trade volume grew strongly, and the company is shifting toward decision intelligence sold through subscriptions and licensing to international partners. The company remains loss-making, so how it monetises the new model is a central point to watch.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, RedCloud Holdings plc (RCT) stock was 0.03 USD (+3.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.3 m USD, beta 1.73, 52-week range 0.03–2.12 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 16.2
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.02 – 0.13
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.08 · band width 140.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.15 / 0.54
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / -0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −82.0% | −2.0% | −80.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −83.3% | −2.2% | −81.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −95.2% | +4.3% | −99.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −97.8% | +10.6% | −108.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −98.3% | +10.5% | −108.8 pp | −17.0% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +73.7% | unavailable | −38.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.8 m | 46.5 m | 48.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +134.8% | +4.3% |
| Net income | -32.4 m | -50.7 m | -46.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.69 | -2.09 | -1.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -163.5% | -109.1% | -95.3% |
| Free cash flow | -22.1 m | -35.3 m | -37.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 479.0 k USD
- Financial debt
- 3.8 m USD
- Net debt
- 3.3 m USD
- Equity
- -7.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 12.7 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.27x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -306.1%
- FCF margin
- -76.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.8 m | 46.5 m | 48.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | -25.6 m | -38.6 m | -43.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.2 m | 295.6 k | 295.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -24.4 m ≈ | -38.4 m ≈ | -43.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -32.8 m | -52.6 m | -46.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | -402.2 k | -1.9 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Net income | -32.4 m | -50.7 m | -46.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.69 | -2.09 | -1.03 | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 19.2 m | 24.3 m | 45.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 554.7 k | 800.7 k | 479.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.6 m | 5.5 m | 2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.6 m | 10.8 m | 5.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 127.1 k | 593.4 k | 445.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.6 m | 6.2 m | 6.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.3 m | 17.6 m | 12.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.0 m | 3.4 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 544.7 k | 558.2 k | 3.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 20.5 m | 63.8 m | 19.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 29.9 m | 86.3 m | 19.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Equity | -22.6 m | -68.8 m | -7.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -22.0 m | -34.7 m | -37.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 101.2 k | 630.0 k | 147.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -22.1 m ≈ | -35.3 m ≈ | -37.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.6 m | -3.9 m | -3.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 19.8 m | 35.0 m | 39.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.3 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
19% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -95.3% | 6 (vs peers) | 33% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -1,645.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 44% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial6/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
RedCloud Holdings plc (RCT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 48.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.3%; net margin -95.3%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -95.3%
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- FCF yield: -1,645.5%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | 27.1 bn | 23.1 | 46.1% | 9.3% | +9.7% | +18% / +49% |
| BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc. | 4.7 bn | 6.1 | — | 10.8% | −0.2% | +35% / −28% |
| SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 1.8 bn | 10.0 | 23.5% | 5.2% | −0.4% | +21% / +99% |
| YJYunji Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -13.5% | -42.0% | −20.8% | −27% / −62% |
| TITNTitan Machinery Inc. | 530.0 m | — | -9.7% | -2.5% | −10.2% | +22% / −1% |
| SGUStar Group, L.P. | 429.8 m | 4.9 | — | 4.6% | +1.0% | +9% / +2% |
| NAASNaaS Technology Inc. | 223.8 m | — | — | -454.5% | −38.9% | −44% / −100% |
| NEGGNewegg Commerce, Inc. | 207.4 m | — | -3.7% | -0.3% | +16.9% | −87% / −61% |
| RENTRent the Runway, Inc. | 83.1 m | 0.2 | — | 11.8% | +7.7% | −49% / −77% |
| BARKBark, Inc. | 75.2 m | — | -36.7% | -8.4% | −18.5% | −42% / −49% |
| TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. | 58.0 m | 68.5 | 1.7% | 0.2% | +77.6% | −48% / −82% |
| BQBoqii Holding Limited | 10.5 m | — | -2.8% | -1.2% | −5.7% | −79% / −98% |
| INHDInno Holdings Inc. | 8.7 m | — | -7.2% | -72.7% | +221.4% | −97% / unavailable |
| RCTRedCloud Holdings plc | 2.3 m | — | — | -95.3% | +4.3% | −98% / unavailable |
| LESLLeslie’s, Inc. | 955.3 k | — | — | -21.2% | −6.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| HITIHigh Tide Inc. | — | — | -44.0% | -8.5% | +13.7% | +8% / +85% |
| JDJD.com, Inc. | — | 30.1 | 10.2% | 1.8% | +17.9% | −7% / +1% |
| FLWS1 800 Flowers Com Inc | — | — | -65.4% | -9.0% | −10.8% | −17% / −68% |
| WOOFPetco Health & Wellness Company, Inc. | — | 31.1 | 2.6% | 0.5% | −2.5% | −2% / +4% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RCT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 May 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026).
In brief
RedCloud Holdings plc, a England and Wales company, develops the RedAI infrastructure that facilitates B2B trade in FMCG products between brands, distributors and retailers in emerging markets such as Nigeria and South Africa. Revenue rose modestly in fiscal 2025 while trade volume grew strongly, and the company is shifting toward decision intelligence sold through subscriptions and licensing to international partners. The company remains loss-making, so how it monetises the new model is a central point to watch.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a large volume of transaction data collected from the daily activity of its network, which management considers a structural advantage.
- The revenue model based on a percentage of transactions links income directly to the commercial activity of its clients.
- The number of active retailers and completed orders grew significantly, indicating expanding adoption.
Weaknesses
- The company reports large operating and net losses relative to revenue, which limits its margin of safety.
- Dependence on a single cloud provider and external payment processors creates operational vulnerabilities.
- Revenue depends on a small number of markets, and the decline in Argentina shows sensitivity to capital allocation decisions.
Opportunities
- Monetising through subscriptions and international licences could diversify revenue if adoption follows the plan.
- The phased launch of the new RedAI architecture to enterprise customers could open larger contracts.
- Expansion into new countries through local partnerships could reduce the capital needed for growth.
Threats
- Restrictions imposed by mobile app marketplaces or changes in their policies could affect user access.
- Interruptions to undersea cables and mobile networks can temporarily stop access to the platform.
- Regulation of artificial intelligence is still forming and could create unforeseen compliance costs.
Risks
- Dependence on a single cloud providerhigh
The platform runs on a single external cloud infrastructure, and an outage there could halt services and damage reputation.
- Persistent operating losseshigh
The company has not reached profitability in the reported period, and continued investment may require additional funding.
- Dependence on app marketplacesmedium
The Red101 app relies on Google Play and the App Store, and changes in their policies could reduce usage.
- Dependence on external payment processorsmedium
Payments are processed through third parties, and higher fees or withdrawal of services could affect margins.
- Artificial intelligence legal risksmedium
The legal framework for artificial intelligence is uncertain and evolving quickly, which may create costs or restrictions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If transaction volume keeps growing and the company monetises its data through subscriptions, revenue could become more predictable.
- International joint ventures could expand coverage quickly without a proportional need for equity capital.
- Data built from real transactions could become a hard-to-replicate advantage as the network grows.
What would break the thesis
- If losses persist and funding becomes more expensive, the company could be forced to cut development investment.
- Growth in small-format retailers could reduce average transaction value and profitability per client.
- Repeated infrastructure outages or changes in supplier terms could erode customer confidence.
What to watch
- Launch of the new RedAI architecture for enterprise customers and its adoptionH2 2026
- Development of revenue from distributor subscription packagesQ1 2027
- Contribution of revenue from joint ventures in Türkiye and Saudi Arabia2027
- Trend in net loss and operating costs in the annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 May 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026).
The business
RedCloud Holdings plc, headquartered in London, operates the RedAI infrastructure and associated products, which facilitate trade in everyday consumer goods between brands, distributors and retailers in Nigeria, South Africa, Argentina and Brazil, and through joint ventures in Türkiye and Saudi Arabia 1. The company says it collects, cleanses and aggregates transactional data at scale and converts it into AI-powered recommendations. Revenue comes mainly from fees calculated as a percentage of the total value of transactions, paid by brands and distributors, while retailers pay no fees 1.
For fiscal 2025 the company reported revenue of approximately 48.5 million USD, up 4.4% year-on-year, and total transaction value reached 3.2 billion USD, up 31% 1. Completed orders rose more than 107% to 827,323, indicating network expansion, even though average transaction value fell as the company entered the open market retail segment in Nigeria 1. The company still reports significant operating and net losses 1.
The business model is shifting toward decision intelligence products. The company began deploying RedAI packages for mid-market distributors in January 2026, with a subscription fee on top of transaction revenue, while joint ventures pay an annual fee to license the infrastructure 1. The company states that it does not sell directly, hold inventory or compete with its sellers 1.
Segments
B2B trading via RedAI
This is the core of current activity: a platform connecting distributors and retailers that earns revenue from a percentage applied to transaction value. The blended transaction-based revenue was approximately 1.5% of transaction value in fiscal 2025 1.
Geographic markets
Nigeria remains the largest market, with revenue of 38.5 million USD in fiscal 2025, followed by South Africa, while Argentina revenue fell almost entirely as capital was reallocated 1.
Intelligence packages and licensing
The new segment includes distributor subscriptions and annual licence fees from joint ventures in Türkiye and Saudi Arabia. The company presents it as a strategic direction, not yet as a separately reported contribution 1.
Market context
The company operates in markets with fragmented distribution networks and developing infrastructure, where trade in consumer goods is largely invisible to manufacturers. According to the company, an estimated 2 trillion USD of the 14.6 trillion USD global FMCG annual trade is lost to inventory inefficiency 1. The reference market is therefore open, but competition and digital adoption vary considerably between countries.
The company identifies high consumer growth markets as suitable for expansion, and operations are affected by internet connectivity and undersea cable infrastructure that can interrupt services 1. Demand for data and decision-automation solutions depends on distributor adoption and on the ability to persuade brands to participate.
Trends
- AI applied to commercetailwind
The company links product development to AI agents and new integrations, which could allow data monetisation through subscriptions if adoption follows the announced timetable.
- Digitisation of distribution in emerging marketstailwind
A rising number of digitally connected retailers could expand the transaction base, although demand depends on the maturity of each market.
- Payment costs and cloud infrastructureheadwind
Dependence on a single cloud provider and external payment processors could raise costs or interrupt services if conditions deteriorate.
- Economic instability in certain countriesmixed
Inflation and currency rules, including in Argentina, can affect revenue and local-currency accounting, with a mixed effect on the business.
Competitive position
The sources provided do not name direct competitors, but they describe rivalry implicitly through traditional distribution models and B2B commerce platforms in the markets where the company operates. The differentiation the company cites rests on the volume and depth of the transaction data it collects.
The declared advantage is proprietary data built from real transactions, which new entrants might find hard to replicate if the network stays dense. The company does acknowledge dependence on third-party suppliers and the risk that large platforms may favour competing apps on mobile markets.
- Traditional distribution platforms and local wholesalers
Indirect competition that controls direct relationships with retailers and does not necessarily offer centralised transaction data.
- B2B commerce platform providers
Players that may offer similar ordering functions but without the company's data network, as described in the report.
- Digital payment and logistics solution providers
Partners for some services that could also become competitors if they extend their offer toward B2B commerce.
- Sales data analytics companies
Providers that may offer similar market information, though without real-time transaction data from the same network.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Caloria.ro - Cum să redai strălucirea hainelor albe printr-un truc simpluProfit.ro · 25 Sept 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 25 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / RedCloud Holdings plc · 15 May 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.