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olivLaw · US equity research

JD.com, Inc. JD

Retail-Retail Stores, NEC · SIC 5990 · Vertical: Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990)

27.73USD+3.05% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

JD.com is one of China's largest e-commerce companies, combining direct online retail with a third-party marketplace and its own logistics services. Its revenue for 2025 passed 1,300 billion RMB, and it is now extending its reach into Europe through the acquisition of control of CECONOMY.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, JD.com, Inc. (JD) stock was 27.73 USD (+3.05% on the day), with market capitalisation 40.6 bn USD, P/E 30.1 on diluted EPS of 0.92 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.66%, beta 0.73, 52-week range 25.19–33.77 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
40.6 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2013
P/E (TTM)
30.1
Diluted EPS TTM 0.92 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
3.32%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
3.66%
Beta (2y)
0.73
Volatility (1y) 30%
52-week range
25.1933.77

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
63.3
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
24.91 – 27.84
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 11.1%
SMA 50 / 200
26.87 / 28.56
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.14 / -0.34
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+5.2%−1.1%+6.3 pp—
3 months−14.8%−0.5%−14.3 pp—
6 months−9.6%+4.4%−14.0 pp—
Year to date−3.4%+12.3%−15.7 pp—
1 year−12.9%+13.5%−26.4 pp−26.6%
3 years+2.9%+76.4%−73.5 pp−49.3%
5 years−64.3%+63.7%−127.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−25.4%
13 May 2026 → 25 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−76.6%
19 Nov 2021 → 05 Mar 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−18.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 6-quarter history (min 18.8, median 33.7, max 119.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue67.2 bn82.9 bn114.3 bn149.3 bn151.7 bn152.8 bn158.8 bn187.2 bn
Revenue YoY+20.7%+23.3%+37.9%+30.6%+1.6%+0.7%+3.9%+17.9%
Net income-407.3 m1.7 bn7.6 bn-701.0 m1.4 bn3.3 bn6.1 bn3.3 bn
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable+342.7%−109.3%unavailable+132.8%+86.8%−45.9%
Diluted EPS-0.130.592.43-0.180.471.071.840.92
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+311.9%−107.4%unavailable+127.7%+72.0%−50.0%
net %-0.6%2.1%6.6%-0.5%0.9%2.1%3.9%1.8%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailable5.8 bn7.6 bn7.8 bn7.2 bn1.6 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
19.7 bn USD
Financial debt
42.8 bn USD
Net debt
23.2 bn USD
Equity
42.0 bn USD
Total assets
99.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.02x
Current ratio
1.22x
ROE
7.8%
ROA
3.4%
FCF margin
0.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
152.8 bn
2024
158.8 bn
2025
187.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
130.3 bn
2024
133.6 bn
2025
157.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
22.5 bn ≈
2024
25.2 bn ≈
2025
30.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026derived

Research & development
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2023
3.7 bn
2024
5.3 bn
2025
397.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
4.8 bn ≈
2024
6.5 bn ≈
2025
1.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
406.0 m
2024
397.0 m
2025
401.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
4.5 bn
2024
7.1 bn
2025
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.2 bn
2024
943.0 m
2025
312.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
3.3 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.07
2024
1.84
2025
0.92

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
10.1 bn
2024
14.8 bn
2025
19.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.9 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Inventories
2023
9.6 bn
2024
12.2 bn
2025
13.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
43.4 bn
2024
53.0 bn
2025
53.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
9.9 bn
2024
11.3 bn
2025
13.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
977.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
88.6 bn
2024
95.7 bn
2025
99.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
23.4 bn
2024
26.4 bn
2025
26.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
709.0 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
31.7 bn
2025
41.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
37.4 bn
2024
41.0 bn
2025
43.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
46.8 bn
2024
52.7 bn
2025
57.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
41.7 bn
2024
42.9 bn
2025
42.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
8.4 bn
2024
8.0 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
567.0 m
2024
733.0 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
7.8 bn ≈
2024
7.2 bn ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-8.4 bn
2024
-119.0 m
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-818.0 m
2024
-2.9 bn
2025
-3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
949.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
352.0 m
2024
3.6 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Apr 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
17.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-92.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-45.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
33.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-15.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-50.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
25.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-17.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-77.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
16.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
92.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
23.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
12.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Debt / equity
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
1.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
48.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
151.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
7 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
30 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
62 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
-25 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
40.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
63.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
12.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
30.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
0.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
35.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBIT
160.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
0.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
25.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
3.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 44 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

27.73 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 40.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
40.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
30.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
35.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROE
10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
17.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 16 Apr 2026
verified 375

Score by group

  • Valuation24
  • Balance sheet14
  • Quality54
  • Growth80
  • Returns76

Estimated value range

Low
4.80
USD per share
Mid
7.44
USD per share
High
18.27
USD per share
Price: 27.73 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -73.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -272.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.00 – 29.36 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)8.76 – 29.36 (Mid 15.88)
    WACC 7.3% · starting FCFF 2.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 80%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 22.0%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA0.00 – 13.40 (Mid 1.46)
    5 companies used · median multiple 14.1x · quartiles 5.9x – 23.9x
    SBH, SGU, TITN, TKLF, ULTA
  • Peers: P/E4.80 – 18.27 (Mid 7.44)
    6 companies used · median multiple 8.1x · quartiles 5.2x – 19.9x
    BBWI, RENT, SBH, SGU, ULTA, WOOF
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 44/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality0.6%60 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality1.8%72 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality48.3%26 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.3%61 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth25.1%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet12.9x14 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.0x0 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x35 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation30.1x29 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation35.6x0 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation3.9%49 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns11.2%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns92.9%39 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet14/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns76/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation24/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

JD.com, Inc. (JD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 187.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.9%; net margin 1.8%; ROE 10.2%; net debt/EBITDA 12.9x.

The estimated value range is 4.80–18.27 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.44 USD, the price of 27.73 USD leaves a potential of -73.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -272.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 1.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 25.1%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 11.2%

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 48.3%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 12.9x
  • Interest coverage: 1.0x
  • P/E (TTM): 30.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 35.6x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
30.1x
vertical median 10.0x
above median (+200.2%)
EV/EBITDA
35.6x
vertical median 14.1x
above median (+152.0%)
P/S
0.2x
vertical median 0.2x
at median
P/B
1.3x
vertical median 1.3x
at median
ROE
10.2%
vertical median -5.5%
above median
Net margin
1.8%
vertical median -1.8%
above median
EBIT margin
0.2%
vertical median -4.8%
above median
Revenue YoY
17.9%
vertical median -0.3%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
12.9x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+1,424.8%)
Dividend yield
3.7%
vertical median 4.8%
below median (−23.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.27.1 bn23.146.1%9.3%+9.7%+18% / +49%
BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.4.7 bn6.1—10.8%−0.2%+35% / −28%
SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.1.8 bn10.023.5%5.2%−0.4%+21% / +99%
YJYunji Inc.1.3 bn—-13.5%-42.0%−20.8%−27% / −62%
TITNTitan Machinery Inc.530.0 m—-9.7%-2.5%−10.2%+22% / −1%
SGUStar Group, L.P.429.8 m4.9—4.6%+1.0%+9% / +2%
NAASNaaS Technology Inc.223.8 m——-454.5%−38.9%−44% / −100%
NEGGNewegg Commerce, Inc.207.4 m—-3.7%-0.3%+16.9%−87% / −61%
RENTRent the Runway, Inc.83.1 m0.2—11.8%+7.7%−49% / −77%
BARKBark, Inc.75.2 m—-36.7%-8.4%−18.5%−42% / −49%
TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd.58.0 m68.51.7%0.2%+77.6%−48% / −82%
BQBoqii Holding Limited10.5 m—-2.8%-1.2%−5.7%−79% / −98%
INHDInno Holdings Inc.8.7 m—-7.2%-72.7%+221.4%−97% / unavailable
RCTRedCloud Holdings plc2.3 m——-95.3%+4.3%−98% / unavailable
LESLLeslie’s, Inc.955.3 k——-21.2%−6.6%unavailable / unavailable
JDJD.com, Inc.—30.110.2%1.8%+17.9%−13% / +3%
HITIHigh Tide Inc.——-44.0%-8.5%+13.7%+8% / +85%
FLWS1 800 Flowers Com Inc——-65.4%-9.0%−10.8%−17% / −68%
WOOFPetco Health & Wellness Company, Inc.—31.12.6%0.5%−2.5%−2% / +4%

1- and 3-year price returns: for JD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
41.40
Total return 49% · Per year 49%
73.09
Total return 164% · Per year 164%
109.97
Total return 297% · Per year 297%
3 years
42.44
Total return 53% · Per year 15%
84.09
Total return 203% · Per year 45%
138.59
Total return 400% · Per year 71%
5 years
43.51
Total return 57% · Per year 9%
96.75
Total return 249% · Per year 28%
174.66
Total return 530% · Per year 44%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 21.02
  • Net margin± 14.72
  • Annual revenue growth± 11.77
  • Annual dilution± 1.24

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026), 6-K (05 Jun 2026), 6-K (18 May 2026), 6-K (12 May 2026).

In brief

JD.com is one of China's largest e-commerce companies, combining direct online retail with a third-party marketplace and its own logistics services. Its revenue for 2025 passed 1,300 billion RMB, and it is now extending its reach into Europe through the acquisition of control of CECONOMY.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company's own warehouse and delivery network, covering almost all regions of China, is an advantage that is hard to replicate quickly.
  • Scale allows better terms from suppliers and a large base of active customers who return frequently.
  • Diversification into logistics, health, marketplace and technology services gives several sources of revenue.

Weaknesses

  • Most revenues come from a single market, China, and are sensitive to domestic economic cycles.
  • Labour costs and the expansion of the warehouse network raise operating expenses.
  • A structure based on consolidated variable interest entities complicates operations and financing.

Opportunities

  • Integrating CECONOMY could open access to European consumer electronics retail and customers outside China.
  • Growth of the marketplace and services for third-party merchants could improve margins.
  • Investment in artificial intelligence and data analysis could increase personalisation and efficiency.

Threats

  • Intense competition in e-commerce and physical retail could lead to lost market share.
  • Regulatory changes and restrictions on foreign ownership could affect the company's structure.
  • A slowdown in consumption in China could reduce orders and pressure revenues.

Risks

  • Managing growth and the delivery networkmedium

    Expanding warehouses and delivery infrastructure into less developed areas could be costly, and order density there may be too low to run an efficient own network.

  • Consumer trust and brand reputationmedium

    A perception that goods are counterfeit or that service is poor, even from isolated incidents, could damage the JD brand.

  • Dependence on consumption in Chinahigh

    Most revenues come from retail in China, and inflation, exchange rates or an economic slowdown could reduce consumer spending.

  • Risks of the CECONOMY acquisitionhigh

    Completion depends on competition, foreign investment and foreign subsidies clearances. Integrating a European business could create unforeseen costs and difficulties.

  • Strategic investments and impairmentmedium

    Investments and acquisitions may not produce the expected results and could lead to goodwill or other asset impairment charges affecting reported results.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The company has very large revenues and a logistics network that is hard to match, giving it scale advantages in China's e-commerce market.
  • Marketplace, marketing and logistics services are growing faster than direct sales, and their higher margins could support long-term profitability.
  • The CECONOMY acquisition could open a new European market and could reduce dependence on consumption in China.

What would break the thesis

  • Most revenues depend on consumption in China, which could slow if the economy weakens or consumer confidence falls.
  • Intense competition and rising costs for personnel and infrastructure could pressure margins in the short term.
  • Integrating a large European acquisition could prove harder and more costly than expected, affecting results.

What to watch

  • Completion of the CECONOMY acquisition and when its results are consolidated2026
  • Development of marketplace, marketing and logistics revenues relative to direct salesnext 10-K
  • Trend in fulfillment and personnel costs as a share of revenuesQ1 2027
  • Listing of JD Property on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026), 6-K (05 Jun 2026), 6-K (18 May 2026), 6-K (12 May 2026).

The business

JD.com is a supply chain-based technology and service provider that operates mainly through e-commerce. Its model includes direct online retail, in which it buys products from suppliers and sells them to customers through its mobile apps and websites, and an online marketplace where third-party merchants sell products and pay commissions and service fees. The company also offers marketing, logistics and other value-added services, and total net revenues for 2025 were 1,309.1 billion RMB (187.2 billion USD) 1.

The warehouse and delivery network is a core part of the company. JD.com covers almost all counties and districts in China with over 1,600 warehouses it operates and over 2,000 cloud warehouses run by third-party owner-operators through the JD Logistics Open Warehouse Platform, with an aggregate gross floor area of over 34 million square meters as of 31 December 2025 1. It relies mainly on its own delivery infrastructure and occasionally on third-party couriers.

The legal structure is complex: operations in China are conducted through subsidiaries and consolidated variable interest entities, because legal restrictions on foreign ownership limit value-added telecommunications businesses. The company also has several subsidiaries listed or preparing to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including JD Logistics, JD Health and JD Industrials, as well as an investment in JD Technology 1.

Segments

Electronics and home appliances

This is the largest revenue category. In 2025 it generated 605.1 billion RMB, or 46.2% of total net revenues, according to the filing 1.

General merchandise

The category includes supermarket, fashion, pharmaceutical and healthcare products, furniture, household goods, industrial products, auto parts and books. In 2025 it brought in 418.7 billion RMB, or 32.0% of revenues, up from the prior year 1.

Marketplace, marketing, logistics and other services

Service revenues rose from 213.4 billion RMB in 2023 to 285.3 billion RMB in 2025. In 2025 logistics and other services generated 178.2 billion RMB, and marketplace and marketing revenues 107.1 billion RMB 1.

Market context

The company's core market is consumer retail in China, where revenues are tied to disposable income and consumer spending, internet penetration and the adoption of online shopping. The filing states that most revenues come from retail sales in China, so economic conditions in the country directly influence the company's results 1.

The company is also expanding in Europe through its takeover of CECONOMY, a European consumer electronics retailer with more than 1,000 stores in 11 countries. The transaction, which remains subject to clearances, could significantly extend the company's international presence 1.

Trends

  • Expansion into European retailmixed

    The CECONOMY acquisition, through which the company secured 59.8% of the share capital, was completed for a consideration of 1.3 billion EUR. If integration goes well, this could open a new source of growth with a different profile from China.

  • Growth of higher-margin servicestailwind

    Marketplace, marketing and logistics revenues are growing faster than direct sales, and these services generally carry higher gross margins. Continuation of this trend could support profitability.

  • Labour cost pressureheadwind

    Personnel costs are the largest component of fulfillment and research costs, and labour costs in China are rising. The company tries to offset this through efficiency, but pressure on operating expenses could persist.

  • Regulation and macroeconomic sensitivitymixed

    Product quality and consumer protection laws, foreign investment and fund transfer rules, as well as consumer spending sensitivity to inflation and unemployment, can affect demand and the company's structure. The effect depends on how policy in China evolves.

Competitive position

The Chinese e-commerce market is highly competitive. Current or potential competitors include major e-commerce companies with broad product ranges, traditional retailers moving online, online retailers focused on specific product categories, and physical stores including big-box stores that also offer a one-stop shopping experience 1.

New business models based on social media or social commerce may emerge and intensify competition. The filing does not name specific competitors with US tickers, so none are listed here, and the company notes the risk of losing market share if it does not compete effectively 1.

  • Large Chinese e-commerce companies with broad product ranges

    The filing describes them as current or potential competitors without naming them.

  • Traditional Chinese retailers moving into online sales

    Established retail companies extending their activity into online commerce.

  • Online platforms specialised in product categories

    Companies focused on particular product categories in China's online retail market.

  • Physical stores and big-box retailers

    Offline retail that also offers a one-stop shopping experience.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Nov 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / JD.com, Inc. · 16 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.