olivLaw · US equity research
Dow Inc. DOW
Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers · SIC 2821 · Vertical: Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821)
Dow Inc. is one of the world's leading materials science companies, with sales of about $40 billion in 2025, active in packaging, infrastructure, mobility and consumer applications. The company is in a period of restructuring and cost reduction, and its third quarter 2026 sales growth was driven mainly by higher prices.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Dow Inc. (DOW) stock was 32.70 USD (−3.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 23.7 bn USD, dividend yield 4.28%, beta 0.79, 52-week range 20.95–41.87 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 11.3 bn USD (+13.0% YoY), net income of 458.0 m USD (+638.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.62 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.94 – 35.95
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.64 · band width 28.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 30.03 / 32.72
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.29 / 1.11
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.7% | −1.1% | +15.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.2% | −0.5% | +10.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −15.1% | +4.4% | −19.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +39.9% | +12.3% | +27.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +44.8% | +13.5% | +31.2 pp | +9.2% |
| 3 years | −34.2% | +76.4% | −110.7 pp | −9.9% |
| 5 years | −43.9% | +63.7% | −107.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.9 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.1 bn | 10.0 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.8 bn | 11.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 9.8 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.9 bn |
| SG&A | 396.0 m | 353.0 m | 366.0 m | 347.0 m | 340.0 m | 339.0 m | 417.0 m | 408.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 741.0 m | 751.0 m | 714.0 m | 724.0 m | 688.0 m | 708.0 m | 719.0 m | 666.0 m |
| Interest expense | 199.0 m | 216.0 m | 216.0 m | 209.0 m | 221.0 m | 219.0 m | 219.0 m | 211.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 324.0 m | 219.0 m | -374.0 m | -659.0 m | 70.0 m | -1.5 bn | -390.0 m | 642.0 m |
| Income tax | 84.0 m | 254.0 m | -84.0 m | 142.0 m | -54.0 m | -71.0 m | 55.0 m | 117.0 m |
| Net income | 214.0 m | 32.0 m | -307.0 m | -835.0 m | 62.0 m | -1.4 bn | -533.0 m | 458.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.30 | 0.05 ≈ | -0.44 | -1.18 | 0.08 | -1.90 ≈ | -0.74 | 0.62 |
| Operating cash flow | 800.0 m ≈ | 814.0 m | 91.0 m | -470.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 284.0 m | 1.1 bn | — |
| Capex | 736.0 m | 767.0 m | 685.0 m | 662.0 m | 564.0 m | 568.0 m | 503.0 m | — |
| Dividends paid | 490.0 m ≈ | 492.0 m | 494.0 m | 496.0 m ≈ | 249.0 m ≈ | 251.0 m | 252.0 m | — |
| Share repurchases | 94.0 m ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 49.6 bn | 43.0 bn | 38.5 bn | 55.0 bn | 56.9 bn | 44.6 bn | 43.0 bn | 40.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +13.4% | −13.4% | −10.3% | +42.6% | +3.5% | −21.6% | −3.7% | −7.0% |
| Net income | 4.8 bn | -1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 660.0 m | 1.2 bn | -2.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | +702.5% | −126.6% | unavailable | +395.0% | −27.6% | −85.8% | +82.0% | −303.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.21 | -1.84 | 1.64 | 8.38 | 6.28 | 0.82 | 1.57 | -3.70 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +935.0% | −129.6% | unavailable | +411.0% | −25.1% | −86.9% | +91.5% | −335.7% |
| net % | 9.6% | -3.0% | 3.4% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | -6.1% |
| Free cash flow | 2.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.7 bn | 2.8 bn | -26.0 m | -1.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 222.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -3.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 17.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 58.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 1.97x
- ROE
- -13.8%
- ROA
- -4.2%
- FCF margin
- -3.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 38.5 bn | 55.0 bn | 56.9 bn | 44.6 bn | 43.0 bn | 40.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 33.3 bn | 44.2 bn | 48.3 bn | 39.7 bn | 38.4 bn | 37.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 5.2 bn | 10.8 bn ≈ | 8.6 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 827.0 m | 731.0 m | 662.0 m | 746.0 m | 811.0 m | 865.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 656.0 m | 1.6 bn | -2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 777.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | -4.0 m | 399.0 m | -67.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 660.0 m | 1.2 bn | -2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.64 | 8.38 | 6.28 | 0.82 | 1.57 | -3.70 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 742.3 m | 749.0 m | 725.6 m | 709.0 m | 705.1 m | 711.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 5.1 bn | 6.8 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 5.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 19.1 bn | 20.8 bn | 20.5 bn | 17.6 bn | 16.6 bn | 18.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 20.2 bn | 20.6 bn | 20.4 bn | 21.1 bn | 22.0 bn | 22.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 8.9 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 61.5 bn | 63.0 bn | 60.6 bn | 58.0 bn | 57.3 bn | 58.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 156.0 m | 161.0 m | 362.0 m | 62.0 m | 497.0 m | 222.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 17.0 bn | 14.5 bn | 15.1 bn | — | 16.2 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.1 bn | 13.2 bn | 11.3 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 13.0 bn | 18.7 bn | 21.2 bn | 19.1 bn | 17.9 bn | 17.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 704.9 m | 702.3 m | 703.8 m | 717.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Oct 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.2 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 5.0 bn ≈ | 5.5 bn ≈ | 5.7 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | -26.0 m ≈ | -1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -841.0 m | -2.9 bn | -3.0 bn | -2.9 bn | -2.4 bn | -2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.8 bn | -6.1 bn | -3.4 bn | -3.1 bn | -1.2 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 125.0 m | 1.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 625.0 m | 494.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 23.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 27.60 – 72.25 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)49.10 – 72.25 (Mid 58.09)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 3.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 72%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -29.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)27.60 – 37.11 (Mid 31.65)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -1.7% | 13 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -11.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 80 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 9.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.3% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 44.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial80/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Dow Inc. (DOW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 40.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -7.0%; net margin -1.7%; ROE -4.3%.
The estimated value range is 38.35–54.68 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.87 USD, the price of 32.70 USD leaves a potential of 37.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 27.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- FCF yield: 9.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 44.3%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -1.7%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -11.1%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOWDow Inc. | 23.7 bn | — | -4.3% | -1.7% | −7.0% | +45% / −34% |
| DDDupont De Nemours, Inc. | 20.0 bn | 73.5 | 1.7% | 4.3% | +1.9% | +26% / +68% |
| ALBAlbemarle Corporation | 11.2 bn | 21.1 | 6.6% | 11.1% | −4.4% | −27% / −22% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Co | 7.7 bn | 12.4 | 10.4% | 6.9% | −6.7% | +9% / −19% |
| HXLHexcel Corporation | 6.3 bn | 36.8 | 11.9% | 8.5% | −0.5% | +9% / +20% |
| AVNTAvient Corporation | 4.4 bn | 24.5 | 7.5% | 5.3% | +0.6% | +56% / +39% |
| ROGRogers Corp | 2.3 bn | 50.9 | 3.7% | 5.3% | −2.3% | +54% / −1% |
| PCTPureCycle Technologies, Inc. | 560.8 m | — | -432.6% | -1,370.9% | unavailable | −68% / −31% |
| ASIXAdvanSix Inc. | 419.2 m | — | -2.8% | -1.4% | +0.3% | +1% / −41% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DOW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Dow Inc. is one of the world's leading materials science companies, with sales of about $40 billion in 2025 1, active in packaging, infrastructure, mobility and consumer applications. The company is in a period of restructuring and cost reduction, and its third quarter 2026 sales growth was driven mainly by higher prices 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Dow has one of the broadest polyolefin portfolios in the industry and integration from ethylene to derivatives, giving it flexibility as markets change 1.
- The company has low-cost feedstock positions in several regions and the ability to keep operating in regions less affected by conflicts 12.
- Operating cash flow improved in 2026, and cash conversion over the trailing twelve months was supported by working capital release 3.
Weaknesses
- Sales fell in 2025 on lower prices, and margins were pressured by overcapacity and restructuring costs 1.
- The company cut its dividend in 2025 and reported a net loss in the same year, showing sensitivity to industry cycles 1.
- European operations remain costly, and plant shutdowns and restructuring temporarily reduce production capacity 1.
Opportunities
- Demand for AI infrastructure, electronics, personal care and flexible packaging is growing faster than the economy, which could support sales growth 2.
- Advanced recycling and circular content projects could open new markets if customer demand for sustainable packaging strengthens 1.
- Transform to Outperform benefits could materially improve operating results in the coming years if delivered as planned 23.
Threats
- Global overcapacity and low-cost exporters from other regions could keep prices under pressure 1.
- Trade tariffs, geopolitical conflict and sanctions could disrupt supply chains and reduce sales volumes 12.
- Climate obligations and emissions rules could raise compliance costs and affect access to financing 1.
Risks
- Overcapacity cyclehigh
Additional capacity, especially in Asia and the Middle East, can push prices and operating rates lower and affect results 1. The effect is most pronounced in commodity products.
- Tariffs and trade policyhigh
Changes in United States trade policy and partner responses could reduce volumes, prices or market access 1. Uncertainty about long-term tariffs remains high.
- Middle East conflictmedium
The conflict could continue to disrupt shipping, energy supply and operations at joint ventures in the region, with effects on costs and volumes 2.
- Climate obligations and regulationmedium
If emissions targets are not met within committed timeframes, reputation and customer relationships could suffer, and financing costs could rise 1.
- Credit rating and access to financinglow
Changes in credit ratings could raise borrowing costs and limit flexibility for investment, especially if results remain under pressure 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If higher polyethylene prices and volume growth in high-demand areas hold, operating results could keep improving 23.
- The cost reduction program and the closure of higher-cost capacity could improve margins over the medium term, especially if benefits are delivered as planned 2.
- The integrated position and global scale could let the company benefit from demand linked to AI, electronics and flexible packaging 12.
What would break the thesis
- If global overcapacity persists, prices and margins could remain under pressure, and the 2026 growth could prove temporary 1.
- Restructuring and Transform to Outperform costs could reduce near-term net results and limit financial flexibility 2.
- The Middle East conflict and trade tensions could further disrupt supply chains and volumes, with negative effects on results 12.
What to watch
- Trend in margins and polyethylene prices relative to industry overcapacityQ4 2026
- Delivery of Transform to Outperform benefits and the structural cost program2027
- Effects of the Middle East conflict on supply chains and regional joint venturesQ4 2026
- Evolution of the credit rating and the debt reduction plan2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Dow organizes its operations into three operating segments, Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure and Performance Materials & Coatings, which together include six global businesses 1. The company operates in 29 countries and had about 34,600 employees at the end of 2025 1. Its operations are integrated from ethylene to polyethylene and derivatives, which helps it manage margin volatility through feedstock flexibility 1.
The core activities include producing ethylene, polyethylene and other functional polymers, as well as ethylene oxide and propylene oxide derivatives used in polyurethane foam, coatings, adhesives and construction 1. The company has also invested in advanced recycling and circular content, with a goal to commercialize 3 million metric tons of circular and renewable solutions annually by 2030 1.
Since October 2026 the executive leadership has been reorganized, and the public strategy focuses on three priorities: growth in areas where demand exceeds GDP, improving portfolio competitiveness by shutting higher-cost capacity, and disciplined capital allocation 2.
Market context
The plastics and synthetic resins market faces global overcapacity, especially in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India and Asia Pacific, which has pressed prices down and reduced operating rates 1. Third quarter 2026 sales growth was nonetheless driven by higher prices, with local price up 14%, while volumes fell slightly by 1% 3.
Demand is supported in particular by applications for AI infrastructure, home and personal care, electronics, flexible packaging and mobility, areas the company describes as growing well above GDP 2. The Middle East conflict has disrupted energy and petrochemical supply chains, raising price volatility, although cost-advantaged regions in North America and Latin America were less affected 2.
Trends
- Overcapacity and importsheadwind
New capacity, especially in Asia and the Middle East, has kept pressure on prices and operating rates, and new exporters can affect the regions they target 1. If this pressure persists, margins in commodity segments could stay weak.
- Middle East conflictmixed
Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have raised energy and feedstock costs, but they also allowed price increases in Europe and North America, and Dow reported higher polyethylene prices 23. The net effect depends on how long the conflict lasts.
- Cost reduction and operating transformationtailwind
The structural cost program and Transform to Outperform aim to improve operating results, and the company says it is on track for benefits in 2026 and 2027 23. One-time and restructuring costs could temporarily reduce net income.
- Climate transition and emissions rulesmixed
Emissions commitments and carbon regulation could raise costs or change demand for certain products 1. Recycling investments and the Alberta project, on the other hand, are linked to demand for more sustainable materials.
Competitive position
Dow competes with integrated petrochemical and materials companies, including producers in the United States and other regions, on the basis of product quality, price, technology and customer service 1. In hydrocarbons and energy, the main rivals named are Chevron Phillips, ExxonMobil, INEOS, LyondellBasell and Shell 1.
In packaging and specialty materials, competitors include LyondellBasell, SABIC, Borealis and ExxonMobil, and other global producers are named in polyurethanes and construction chemicals 1. Dow states that its advantage rests on low-cost feedstock positions and integrated scale 1.
- LyondellBasellLYB
Main rival in hydrocarbons, polyethylene and packaging, named in Dow's sources 1.
- ExxonMobilXOM
Competitor in hydrocarbons, packaging and specialty materials, named in Dow's sources 1.
- INEOS
Global chemical company competing in ethylene, polyethylene and hydrocarbons 1.
- SABIC
Competitor with polyethylene, ethylene and specialty materials activities, listed outside the United States 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report23 Oct 2026
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report24 Jul 2026
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)06 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report24 Apr 2026
- Current report23 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement27 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Dow Inc. · 03 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Dow Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Dow Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.