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olivLaw · US equity research

Dow Inc. DOW

Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers · SIC 2821 · Vertical: Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821)

32.70USD−3.23% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Dow Inc. is one of the world's leading materials science companies, with sales of about $40 billion in 2025, active in packaging, infrastructure, mobility and consumer applications. The company is in a period of restructuring and cost reduction, and its third quarter 2026 sales growth was driven mainly by higher prices.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Dow Inc. (DOW) stock was 32.70 USD (−3.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 23.7 bn USD, dividend yield 4.28%, beta 0.79, 52-week range 20.95–41.87 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 11.3 bn USD (+13.0% YoY), net income of 458.0 m USD (+638.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.62 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
23.7 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -3.70 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
-11.31%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
4.28%
DPS 12m 1.40
Beta (2y)
0.79
Volatility (1y) 42%
52-week range
20.9541.87

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
58.0
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
26.94 – 35.95
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.64 · band width 28.7%
SMA 50 / 200
30.03 / 32.72
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.29 / 1.11
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.7%−1.1%+15.8 pp—
3 months+10.2%−0.5%+10.7 pp—
6 months−15.1%+4.4%−19.5 pp—
Year to date+39.9%+12.3%+27.5 pp—
1 year+44.8%+13.5%+31.2 pp+9.2%
3 years−34.2%+76.4%−110.7 pp−9.9%
5 years−43.9%+63.7%−107.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−35.5%
30 Mar 2026 → 01 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−70.8%
04 May 2022 → 10 Oct 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−10.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
11.3 bn USD
+13.0% YoY
Net income
458.0 m USD
+638.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.62
+675.0% YoY
net / operating
4.1% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q3 '26
Revenue10.9 bn10.4 bn10.4 bn10.1 bn10.0 bn9.5 bn9.8 bn11.3 bn
Cost of revenue9.8 bn9.5 bn9.8 bn9.5 bn9.2 bn8.9 bn9.2 bn9.9 bn
SG&A396.0 m353.0 m366.0 m347.0 m340.0 m339.0 m417.0 m408.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation741.0 m751.0 m714.0 m724.0 m688.0 m708.0 m719.0 m666.0 m
Interest expense199.0 m216.0 m216.0 m209.0 m221.0 m219.0 m219.0 m211.0 m
Pre-tax income324.0 m219.0 m-374.0 m-659.0 m70.0 m-1.5 bn-390.0 m642.0 m
Income tax84.0 m254.0 m-84.0 m142.0 m-54.0 m-71.0 m55.0 m117.0 m
Net income214.0 m32.0 m-307.0 m-835.0 m62.0 m-1.4 bn-533.0 m458.0 m
Diluted EPS0.300.05 ≈-0.44-1.180.08-1.90 ≈-0.740.62
Operating cash flow800.0 m ≈814.0 m91.0 m-470.0 m ≈1.1 bn ≈284.0 m1.1 bn—
Capex736.0 m767.0 m685.0 m662.0 m564.0 m568.0 m503.0 m—
Dividends paid490.0 m ≈492.0 m494.0 m496.0 m ≈249.0 m ≈251.0 m252.0 m—
Share repurchases94.0 m ≈000 ≈0 ≈0——

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue49.6 bn43.0 bn38.5 bn55.0 bn56.9 bn44.6 bn43.0 bn40.0 bn
Revenue YoY+13.4%−13.4%−10.3%+42.6%+3.5%−21.6%−3.7%−7.0%
Net income4.8 bn-1.3 bn1.3 bn6.4 bn4.6 bn660.0 m1.2 bn-2.4 bn
Net income YoY+702.5%−126.6%unavailable+395.0%−27.6%−85.8%+82.0%−303.5%
Diluted EPS6.21-1.841.648.386.280.821.57-3.70
Diluted EPS YoY+935.0%−129.6%unavailable+411.0%−25.1%−86.9%+91.5%−335.7%
net %9.6%-3.0%3.4%11.7%8.2%1.5%2.8%-6.1%
Free cash flow2.2 bn4.0 bn5.0 bn5.5 bn5.7 bn2.8 bn-26.0 m-1.4 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
3.8 bn USD
Financial debt
222.0 m USD
Net debt
-3.6 bn USD
Equity
17.5 bn USD
Total assets
58.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.01x
Current ratio
1.97x
ROE
-13.8%
ROA
-4.2%
FCF margin
-3.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
44.6 bn
2024
43.0 bn
2025
40.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
39.7 bn
2024
38.4 bn
2025
37.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
4.9 bn ≈
2024
4.6 bn ≈
2025
2.5 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
746.0 m
2024
811.0 m
2025
865.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
656.0 m
2024
1.6 bn
2025
-2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-4.0 m
2024
399.0 m
2025
-67.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
660.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
-2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.82
2024
1.57
2025
-3.70

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
709.0 m
2024
705.1 m
2025
711.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.80
2024
2.80
2025
2.10

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.0 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
6.1 bn
2024
6.5 bn
2025
6.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
17.6 bn
2024
16.6 bn
2025
18.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
21.1 bn
2024
22.0 bn
2025
22.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
8.6 bn
2024
8.6 bn
2025
8.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.1 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
58.0 bn
2024
57.3 bn
2025
58.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
62.0 m
2024
497.0 m
2025
222.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
16.2 bn
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
10.0 bn
2024
10.3 bn
2025
9.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
19.1 bn
2024
17.9 bn
2025
17.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
702.3 m
2024
703.8 m
2025
717.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Oct 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
5.2 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.8 bn ≈
2024
-26.0 m ≈
2025
-1.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-2.9 bn
2024
-2.4 bn
2025
-2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-3.1 bn
2024
-1.2 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
625.0 m
2024
494.0 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-11.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-303.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-335.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
-1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (FCF)
44.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-3.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
4.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
2.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Mar 2026
Free cash flow
2.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
47 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
66 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
23.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
20.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

32.70 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 23.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
23.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 23 Oct 2026
verified 1312derived 100

Score by group

38% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
38.35
USD per share
Mid
44.87
USD per share
High
54.68
USD per share
Price: 32.70 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 37.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 27.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 27.60 – 72.25 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)49.10 – 72.25 (Mid 58.09)
    WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 3.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 72%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -29.2%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)27.60 – 37.11 (Mid 31.65)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-1.7%13 (vs peers)17%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-11.1%0 (on a fixed band)22%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x80 (on a fixed band)11%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation9.6%100 (on a fixed band)22%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.3%61 (on a fixed band)17%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns44.3%100 (on a fixed band)11%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial80/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Dow Inc. (DOW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 40.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -7.0%; net margin -1.7%; ROE -4.3%.

The estimated value range is 38.35–54.68 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.87 USD, the price of 32.70 USD leaves a potential of 37.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 27.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 1.8x
  • FCF yield: 9.6%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 44.3%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -1.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -11.1%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 30.7x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 11.1x
P/S
0.6x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−75.3%)
P/B
1.5x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−10.1%)
ROE
-4.3%
vertical median 5.2%
below median (−182.2%)
Net margin
-1.7%
vertical median 5.3%
below median (−131.9%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 9.7%
Revenue YoY
-7.0%
vertical median -0.5%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.3x
Dividend yield
4.3%
vertical median 3.2%
above median (+33.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DOWDow Inc.23.7 bn—-4.3%-1.7%−7.0%+45% / −34%
DDDupont De Nemours, Inc.20.0 bn73.51.7%4.3%+1.9%+26% / +68%
ALBAlbemarle Corporation11.2 bn21.16.6%11.1%−4.4%−27% / −22%
EMNEastman Chemical Co7.7 bn12.410.4%6.9%−6.7%+9% / −19%
HXLHexcel Corporation6.3 bn36.811.9%8.5%−0.5%+9% / +20%
AVNTAvient Corporation4.4 bn24.57.5%5.3%+0.6%+56% / +39%
ROGRogers Corp2.3 bn50.93.7%5.3%−2.3%+54% / −1%
PCTPureCycle Technologies, Inc.560.8 m—-432.6%-1,370.9%unavailable−68% / −31%
ASIXAdvanSix Inc.419.2 m—-2.8%-1.4%+0.3%+1% / −41%

1- and 3-year price returns: for DOW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Dow Inc. is one of the world's leading materials science companies, with sales of about $40 billion in 2025 1, active in packaging, infrastructure, mobility and consumer applications. The company is in a period of restructuring and cost reduction, and its third quarter 2026 sales growth was driven mainly by higher prices 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Dow has one of the broadest polyolefin portfolios in the industry and integration from ethylene to derivatives, giving it flexibility as markets change 1.
    • The company has low-cost feedstock positions in several regions and the ability to keep operating in regions less affected by conflicts 12.
    • Operating cash flow improved in 2026, and cash conversion over the trailing twelve months was supported by working capital release 3.

    Weaknesses

    • Sales fell in 2025 on lower prices, and margins were pressured by overcapacity and restructuring costs 1.
    • The company cut its dividend in 2025 and reported a net loss in the same year, showing sensitivity to industry cycles 1.
    • European operations remain costly, and plant shutdowns and restructuring temporarily reduce production capacity 1.

    Opportunities

    • Demand for AI infrastructure, electronics, personal care and flexible packaging is growing faster than the economy, which could support sales growth 2.
    • Advanced recycling and circular content projects could open new markets if customer demand for sustainable packaging strengthens 1.
    • Transform to Outperform benefits could materially improve operating results in the coming years if delivered as planned 23.

    Threats

    • Global overcapacity and low-cost exporters from other regions could keep prices under pressure 1.
    • Trade tariffs, geopolitical conflict and sanctions could disrupt supply chains and reduce sales volumes 12.
    • Climate obligations and emissions rules could raise compliance costs and affect access to financing 1.

    Risks

    • Overcapacity cyclehigh

      Additional capacity, especially in Asia and the Middle East, can push prices and operating rates lower and affect results 1. The effect is most pronounced in commodity products.

    • Tariffs and trade policyhigh

      Changes in United States trade policy and partner responses could reduce volumes, prices or market access 1. Uncertainty about long-term tariffs remains high.

    • Middle East conflictmedium

      The conflict could continue to disrupt shipping, energy supply and operations at joint ventures in the region, with effects on costs and volumes 2.

    • Climate obligations and regulationmedium

      If emissions targets are not met within committed timeframes, reputation and customer relationships could suffer, and financing costs could rise 1.

    • Credit rating and access to financinglow

      Changes in credit ratings could raise borrowing costs and limit flexibility for investment, especially if results remain under pressure 12.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If higher polyethylene prices and volume growth in high-demand areas hold, operating results could keep improving 23.
    • The cost reduction program and the closure of higher-cost capacity could improve margins over the medium term, especially if benefits are delivered as planned 2.
    • The integrated position and global scale could let the company benefit from demand linked to AI, electronics and flexible packaging 12.

    What would break the thesis

    • If global overcapacity persists, prices and margins could remain under pressure, and the 2026 growth could prove temporary 1.
    • Restructuring and Transform to Outperform costs could reduce near-term net results and limit financial flexibility 2.
    • The Middle East conflict and trade tensions could further disrupt supply chains and volumes, with negative effects on results 12.

    What to watch

    • Trend in margins and polyethylene prices relative to industry overcapacityQ4 2026
    • Delivery of Transform to Outperform benefits and the structural cost program2027
    • Effects of the Middle East conflict on supply chains and regional joint venturesQ4 2026
    • Evolution of the credit rating and the debt reduction plan2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Dow organizes its operations into three operating segments, Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure and Performance Materials & Coatings, which together include six global businesses 1. The company operates in 29 countries and had about 34,600 employees at the end of 2025 1. Its operations are integrated from ethylene to polyethylene and derivatives, which helps it manage margin volatility through feedstock flexibility 1.

    The core activities include producing ethylene, polyethylene and other functional polymers, as well as ethylene oxide and propylene oxide derivatives used in polyurethane foam, coatings, adhesives and construction 1. The company has also invested in advanced recycling and circular content, with a goal to commercialize 3 million metric tons of circular and renewable solutions annually by 2030 1.

    Since October 2026 the executive leadership has been reorganized, and the public strategy focuses on three priorities: growth in areas where demand exceeds GDP, improving portfolio competitiveness by shutting higher-cost capacity, and disciplined capital allocation 2.

    Market context

    The plastics and synthetic resins market faces global overcapacity, especially in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India and Asia Pacific, which has pressed prices down and reduced operating rates 1. Third quarter 2026 sales growth was nonetheless driven by higher prices, with local price up 14%, while volumes fell slightly by 1% 3.

    Demand is supported in particular by applications for AI infrastructure, home and personal care, electronics, flexible packaging and mobility, areas the company describes as growing well above GDP 2. The Middle East conflict has disrupted energy and petrochemical supply chains, raising price volatility, although cost-advantaged regions in North America and Latin America were less affected 2.

    Trends

    • Overcapacity and importsheadwind

      New capacity, especially in Asia and the Middle East, has kept pressure on prices and operating rates, and new exporters can affect the regions they target 1. If this pressure persists, margins in commodity segments could stay weak.

    • Middle East conflictmixed

      Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have raised energy and feedstock costs, but they also allowed price increases in Europe and North America, and Dow reported higher polyethylene prices 23. The net effect depends on how long the conflict lasts.

    • Cost reduction and operating transformationtailwind

      The structural cost program and Transform to Outperform aim to improve operating results, and the company says it is on track for benefits in 2026 and 2027 23. One-time and restructuring costs could temporarily reduce net income.

    • Climate transition and emissions rulesmixed

      Emissions commitments and carbon regulation could raise costs or change demand for certain products 1. Recycling investments and the Alberta project, on the other hand, are linked to demand for more sustainable materials.

    Competitive position

    Dow competes with integrated petrochemical and materials companies, including producers in the United States and other regions, on the basis of product quality, price, technology and customer service 1. In hydrocarbons and energy, the main rivals named are Chevron Phillips, ExxonMobil, INEOS, LyondellBasell and Shell 1.

    In packaging and specialty materials, competitors include LyondellBasell, SABIC, Borealis and ExxonMobil, and other global producers are named in polyurethanes and construction chemicals 1. Dow states that its advantage rests on low-cost feedstock positions and integrated scale 1.

    • LyondellBasellLYB

      Main rival in hydrocarbons, polyethylene and packaging, named in Dow's sources 1.

    • ExxonMobilXOM

      Competitor in hydrocarbons, packaging and specialty materials, named in Dow's sources 1.

    • INEOS

      Global chemical company competing in ethylene, polyethylene and hydrocarbons 1.

    • SABIC

      Competitor with polyethylene, ethylene and specialty materials activities, listed outside the United States 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Dow Inc. · 03 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Dow Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Dow Inc. · 22 Oct 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.