olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Hexcel Corporation HXL

Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers · SIC 2821 · Vertical: Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821)

83.39USD+1.91% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Hexcel is a global leader in lightweight composites, supplying carbon fiber, prepregs, honeycomb and composite structures, mainly for commercial aerospace. The business depends closely on aircraft production rates, and in 2026 demand stays strong, with sales guidance of 2.025 - 2.125 billion USD that the company has kept unchanged.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Hexcel Corporation (HXL) stock was 83.39 USD (+1.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.3 bn USD, P/E 219.4 on diluted EPS of 0.38 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 169.98%, beta 1.05, 52-week range 67.81–110.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 496.4 m USD (+8.8% YoY), net income of 38.6 m USD (+87.4% YoY).

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.3 bn USD
shares as of 19 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
219.4
Diluted EPS TTM 0.38 · TTM to 31 Dec 2020
E/P (TTM)
0.46%
TTM to 31 Dec 2020
Dividend yield
169.98%
DPS 12m 141.75
Beta (2y)
1.05
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
67.81110.28

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
47.7
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
75.02 – 93.29
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.46 · band width 21.7%
SMA 50 / 200
87.08 / 90.61
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-2.04 / -2.05
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−2.9%−1.1%−1.8 pp—
3 months−20.1%−0.5%−19.6 pp—
6 months−13.6%+4.4%−18.0 pp—
Year to date+12.8%+12.3%+0.5 pp—
1 year+19.2%+13.5%+5.7 pp+17.6%
3 years+31.2%+76.4%−45.3 pp−20.5%
5 years+33.7%+63.7%−29.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−29.4%
24 Jul 2026 → 30 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−39.1%
12 Jul 2023 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+6.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
496.4 m USD
+8.8% YoY
Net income
38.6 m USD
+87.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
unavailable
unavailable YoY
net / operating
7.8% / 11.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue473.8 m456.5 m489.9 m456.2 m491.3 m501.5 m529.3 m496.4 m
Cost of revenue355.3 m354.1 m378.4 m356.3 m370.3 m366.8 m391.2 m380.9 m
Gross profit118.5 m102.4 m111.5 m99.9 m121.0 m134.7 m138.1 m115.5 m
Research & development13.5 m13.8 m14.3 m14.0 m14.3 m17.8 m17.3 m16.2 m
SG&A47.9 m43.3 m43.0 m41.1 m41.6 m49.4 m47.2 m44.9 m
Operating income8.9 m44.2 m30.0 m36.0 m61.4 m57.6 m72.6 m54.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation31.0 m29.8 m30.8 m30.9 m30.8 m30.4 m30.1 m30.0 m
Interest expense8.1 m7.8 m9.1 m9.2 m11.6 m11.8 m12.0 m12.1 m
Pre-tax income800.0 k36.0 m———45.5 m——
Income tax-5.0 m7.1 m8.3 m6.2 m4.0 m8.3 m11.4 m4.1 m
Net income5.8 m28.9 m13.5 m20.6 m46.4 m37.2 m49.3 m38.6 m
Operating cash flow162.6 m-28.5 m23.3 m ≈110.2 m ≈125.5 m19.0 m77.7 m ≈74.4 m ≈
Capex18.6 m26.1 m15.3 m ≈13.7 m ≈18.2 m25.2 m19.7 m ≈23.7 m ≈
Dividends paid12.1 m13.8 m13.7 m ≈13.5 m ≈12.9 m13.7 m13.6 m ≈13.6 m ≈
Share repurchases050.4 m50.5 m ≈0 ≈353.4 m00 ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 17-quarter history (min 11.5, median 20.5, max 127.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.2 bn2.4 bn1.5 bn1.3 bn1.6 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn
Revenue YoY+10.9%+7.6%−36.2%−11.8%+19.1%+13.4%+6.4%−0.5%
Net income276.6 m306.6 m31.7 m16.1 m126.3 m105.7 m132.1 m109.4 m
Net income YoY−2.6%+10.8%−89.7%−49.2%+684.5%−16.3%+25.0%−17.2%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %12.6%13.0%2.1%1.2%8.0%5.9%6.9%5.8%
Free cash flow237.3 m287.0 m213.7 m123.8 m96.8 m148.9 m202.9 m157.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
71.0 m USD
Financial debt
993.0 m USD
Net debt
922.0 m USD
Equity
1.3 bn USD
Total assets
2.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.79x
Current ratio
2.26x
ROE
7.9%
ROA
4.0%
FCF margin
8.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
433.2 m
2024
469.8 m
2025
434.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
52.7 m
2024
57.1 m
2025
56.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
163.8 m
2024
176.6 m
2025
169.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
215.3 m
2024
186.1 m
2025
171.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
124.8 m
2024
124.0 m
2025
122.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
340.1 m ≈
2024
310.1 m ≈
2025
293.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
34.0 m
2024
31.2 m
2025
37.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
109.7 m
2024
154.9 m
2025
135.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
12.1 m
2024
22.8 m
2025
25.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
105.7 m
2024
132.1 m
2025
109.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
85.5 m
2024
83.0 m
2025
80.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.50
2024
0.60
2025
70.95

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
227.0 m
2024
125.4 m
2025
71.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
234.7 m
2024
212.0 m
2025
249.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
334.4 m
2024
356.2 m
2025
328.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
864.2 m
2024
781.5 m
2025
730.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
188.7 m
2024
186.5 m
2025
191.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
58.5 m
2024
46.2 m
2025
41.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
159.1 m
2024
142.3 m
2025
146.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
100.0 k
2024
100.0 k
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
699.4 m
2024
700.6 m
2025
993.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
315.9 m
2024
353.5 m
2025
322.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.7 bn †
2024
1.5 bn †
2025
1.3 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
257.1 m
2024
289.9 m
2025
230.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
108.2 m
2024
87.0 m
2025
73.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
148.9 m ≈
2024
202.9 m ≈
2025
157.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-50.7 m
2024
-87.0 m
2025
-76.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-92.6 m
2024
-301.7 m
2025
-212.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
42.2 m
2024
49.3 m
2025
53.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
30.1 m
2024
252.2 m
2025
454.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-17.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
28.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-22.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
25.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
12.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
10.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
25.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
857.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
5.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
296.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
86.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
209.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
122.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
80.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
46 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
86 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
100 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
7.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
36.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
36.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
29.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
3.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
30.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
170.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
5.17
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

83.39 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
36.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
170.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 19 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 21 Oct 2026
verified 2822derived 215

Score by group

  • Valuation26
  • Returns95
  • Quality76
  • Balance sheet61
  • Growth52

Estimated value range

Low
47.91
USD per share
Mid
55.49
USD per share
High
115.38
USD per share
Price: 83.39 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -33.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -50.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 36.81 – 1,253.86 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)36.81 – 64.91 (Mid 47.49)
    WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 248.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 29.0%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/E47.91 – 115.38 (Mid 55.49)
    5 companies used · median multiple 24.5x · quartiles 21.1x – 50.9x
    ALB, AVNT, DD, EMN, ROG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)932.36 – 1,253.86 (Mid 1,069.47)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality9.0%54 (on a fixed band)11%
Net margin · Quality8.5%88 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality122.3%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.3%52 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.3x48 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet5.2x57 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.6x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation36.8x40 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation19.5x0 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation3.3%42 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns6.5%92 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns25.6%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial52/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns95/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation26/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Hexcel Corporation (HXL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -0.5%; net margin 8.5%; ROE 11.9%; net debt/EBITDA 2.3x.

The estimated value range is 47.91–115.38 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 55.49 USD, the price of 83.39 USD leaves a potential of -33.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -50.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 8.5%
  • FCF conversion: 122.3%
  • Current ratio: 2.6x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.5%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 25.6%

What contradicts it

  • EV/EBITDA: 19.5x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.

Versus the vertical median

Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers (SIC 2821) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
36.8x
vertical median 24.5x
above median (+50.3%)
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
vertical median —
P/S
3.1x
vertical median 1.6x
above median (+101.3%)
P/B
4.8x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+224.6%)
ROE
11.9%
vertical median 2.7%
above median (+340.5%)
Net margin
8.5%
vertical median 4.8%
above median (+78.2%)
EBIT margin
12.2%
vertical median 8.8%
above median (+38.6%)
Revenue YoY
-0.5%
vertical median -2.3%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
2.3x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
170.0%
vertical median 3.2%
above median (+5,201.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DOWDow Inc.23.7 bn—-4.3%-1.7%−7.0%+37% / −37%
DDDupont De Nemours, Inc.20.0 bn73.51.7%4.3%+1.9%+26% / +68%
ALBAlbemarle Corporation11.2 bn21.16.6%11.1%−4.4%−27% / −22%
EMNEastman Chemical Co7.7 bn12.410.4%6.9%−6.7%+9% / −19%
HXLHexcel Corporation6.3 bn36.811.9%8.5%−0.5%+19% / +31%
AVNTAvient Corporation4.4 bn24.57.5%5.3%+0.6%+56% / +39%
ROGRogers Corp2.3 bn50.93.7%5.3%−2.3%+54% / −1%
PCTPureCycle Technologies, Inc.560.8 m—-432.6%-1,370.9%unavailable−68% / −31%
ASIXAdvanSix Inc.419.2 m—-2.8%-1.4%+0.3%+1% / −41%

1- and 3-year price returns: for HXL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
50.17
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
88.63
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
133.39
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
50.45
Total return -40% · Per year -15%
100.10
Total return 20% · Per year 6%
165.18
Total return 98% · Per year 26%
5 years
50.73
Total return -39% · Per year -9%
113.07
Total return 36% · Per year 6%
204.54
Total return 145% · Per year 20%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 25.03
  • Net margin± 17.52
  • Annual revenue growth± 14.14
  • Annual dilution± 1.47

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Hexcel is a global leader in lightweight composites, supplying carbon fiber, prepregs, honeycomb and composite structures, mainly for commercial aerospace. The business depends closely on aircraft production rates, and in 2026 demand stays strong, with sales guidance of 2.025 - 2.125 billion USD that the company has kept unchanged.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading position in lightweight composites, with a broad product range and a presence on Airbus and Boeing platforms.
  • Rising operating margin in 2026 shows the ability to benefit from higher volume.
  • Growing cash generation and commitment to reducing debt and repurchasing shares.

Weaknesses

  • High dependence on a few aviation customers, especially Airbus and Boeing.
  • Personnel and training costs rose, temporarily weighing on quarterly profitability.
  • Defense and space sales declined in 2026 due to soft programs and divestments.

Opportunities

  • Rising composite content in new generations of aircraft and engines.
  • Growing defense budgets could support demand for new platforms.
  • Lighter composite materials with a smaller environmental footprint may attract efficiency-minded customers.

Threats

  • Delays in aircraft production caused by supply chain bottlenecks.
  • Geopolitical tensions that could create cost and logistics pressures.
  • Customer pressure for price cuts, which could compress margins.

Risks

  • Concentration in commercial aviationhigh

    Commercial aviation makes up most of sales, so a slowdown in demand would directly affect results.

  • Dependence on Airbus and Boeinghigh

    Losing or reducing business with these two customers could have a significant impact on the company.

  • Production rates and supply chainmedium

    Delays in aircraft production caused by supply or labor problems can postpone sales.

  • Defense spendingmedium

    Military budgets are hard to predict, and individual programs can be cancelled or reduced.

  • Government procurement compliancelow

    Failure to follow procurement and security rules could lead to fines and loss of contracts.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Rising commercial aviation sales and an improving operating margin could support a recovery in profitability if production keeps rising.
  • Order backlogs near record levels give visibility on demand over several years.
  • Better cash generation allows debt reduction and share repurchases, which could support shareholder value.

What would break the thesis

  • Heavy dependence on a few aviation customers could expose the company to sudden drops if production slows.
  • Defense and space sales declined, and a prolonged weakness in these programs could weigh on results.
  • Cost and geopolitical pressures could compress margins if they are not offset by volume.

What to watch

  • Delivery against 2026 sales and adjusted EPS guidance2026
  • Return to the targeted leverage rangeend 2026
  • Commercial aerospace sales trend and Airbus and Boeing production rates2027
  • Defense, Space & Other sales and the soft programsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Hexcel Corporation and its subsidiaries describe themselves as a global leader in advanced lightweight composites technology, with a range covering carbon fiber, specialty reinforcements, prepregs, resins, honeycomb and composite structures for commercial aerospace, defense and space, and industrial uses 1. The company operates in a single industry, Advanced Composites, and reports two segments: Composite Materials and Engineered Products 1. It serves international markets through facilities and sales offices in the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, India and Africa 1.

The Composite Materials segment includes HexTow carbon fibers, HexForce fabrics, HexPly prepregs, structural adhesives, HexWeb honeycomb and pultruded profiles, with key customers such as Airbus, Boeing, Safran and Leonardo 1. Its sales depend strongly on the number of commercial aircraft produced 1. The Engineered Products segment makes composite structures, precision machined honeycomb parts, RF interference control materials and HexAM 3D printed parts, mainly for aerospace 1.

The company focused its portfolio on carbon fiber and engineered composites, selling its Austrian operations and closing its Welkenraedt, Belgium facility during 2025 1. In the first nine months of 2026, sales rose and the gross margin reached 25.4% 2.

Segments

Composite Materials

The segment makes core materials such as carbon fiber, prepregs, adhesives and honeycomb used in aircraft, engines and defense applications. It represented about 80% of net sales in 2025 1. In the first nine months of 2026, segment sales grew faster than the company average, led by commercial aerospace 2.

Engineered Products

The segment supplies composite structures and precision parts, mainly for aerospace, and made up about 20% of 2025 sales 1. The growth from quarter to quarter was mainly driven by commercial aerospace sales, which points to a positive trend for the segment in 2026 2.

Market context

Commercial aerospace is the company's largest market and accounted for 61% of 2025 sales 1. Demand for new aircraft is driven by passenger traffic and fleet replacement rates, and the combined Airbus and Boeing backlog stood at 15,474 aircraft at the end of 2025 1. The defense, space and other market depends on military budgets and individual programs, some of which were temporarily weaker in 2026 2.

Over the long term, the company points to the secular penetration of composites in new aircraft and a rising composite content in each new aircraft generation, which could lift average sales per airplane 1. Commercial aerospace sales in the first nine months of 2026 rose 19.1% 2.

Trends

  • Aircraft production ratestailwind

    Rising Airbus and Boeing production rates have supported aviation sales, and order backlogs are near record levels 1. If supply chain bottlenecks persist, delivery rates could remain below potential 1.

  • Customer concentrationheadwind

    Airbus and its subcontractors accounted for about 39% of 2025 sales, and Boeing for about 13% 1. A decline in business with either customer would significantly affect results 1.

  • Defense and space budgetsmixed

    Defense budgets are rising in several countries, yet individual programs have been soft and Defense, Space & Other sales declined in 2026 2. The short-term effect is mixed, with long-term potential if new platforms expand.

  • Cost and geopolitical pressuresheadwind

    The Middle East conflict and tariffs could create cost and logistics pressures if they prolong 2. The company has shown it can recover margin through higher volume 2.

Competitive position

The documents provided do not name direct competitors in detail, but they describe the market through aircraft manufacturers and subcontracting customers such as Safran, Toray and Syensqo, which appear as suppliers or customers in the supply chain 1. Competition rests on technological innovation, cost and the ability to develop new products on time 1.

The company's advantage depends on sustaining research and development investment, while the risk is that customer cost pressure could compress margins 1. In 2026 Hexcel reported sales growth that points to a solid competitive position, but no direct rivals are named in the supplied sources 2.

  • Toray Industries

    Named in the source as a key customer in the Composite Materials segment, relevant both as supplier and partner in the supply chain.

  • Syensqo

    Appears in the list of key customers of the Composite Materials segment, relevant to materials supply dynamics.

  • Safran

    Key customer of the Composite Materials segment, both partner and benchmark for demand in engines and nacelles.

  • Leonardo

    Listed among key customers, relevant to the defense and aerospace segment.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report21 Oct 2026
  • Current report21 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
  • Current report29 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report28 May 2026
    Termination of a material agreement
  • Current report15 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report30 Apr 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report22 Apr 2026
  • Current report22 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement01 Apr 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Hexcel Corporation · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Hexcel Corporation · 21 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Hexcel Corporation · 21 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.