olivLaw · US equity research
Ferrovial N.V. FER
Heavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors · SIC 1600 · Vertical: Heavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors (SIC 1600)
Ferrovial N.V. is an international infrastructure group active in highways, airports, construction and energy, with operations in seven core markets and over 22,609 employees. The company is shifting focus toward complex managed-lanes projects in the US and Canada and toward data centers, while rotating mature assets to fund new opportunities.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ferrovial N.V. (FER) stock was 58.95 USD (+2.45% on the day), with beta 0.75, 52-week range 48.86–74.38 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 45.57 – 58.67
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 25.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 54.27 / 64.15
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.95 / -0.24
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.7% | −1.1% | +14.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.4% | −0.5% | −11.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.8% | +4.4% | −22.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.8% | +12.3% | −21.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −6.1% | +13.5% | −19.6 pp | −9.0% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +52.2% |
| 5 years | +88.9% | +63.7% | +25.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.6 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +12.8% | +7.4% | +5.2% |
| Net income | 188.0 m | 341.0 m | 3.2 bn | 888.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +81.4% | +849.9% | −72.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.46 | 4.47 | 1.24 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +84.0% | +871.7% | −72.3% |
| net % | 2.5% | 4.0% | 35.4% | 9.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.3 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 7.7 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 27.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.13x
- ROE
- 11.3%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.6 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 423.0 m | 625.0 m | 3.1 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 299.0 m | 401.0 m | 441.0 m | 490.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 722.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2025derived |
| Pre-tax income | 271.0 m | 610.0 m | 3.6 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 30.0 m | 115.0 m | 145.0 m | -60.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 188.0 m | 341.0 m | 3.2 bn | 888.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.46 | 4.47 | 1.24 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 723.5 m | 728.3 m | 724.2 m | 718.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 458.0 m | 492.0 m | 540.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 7.0 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 594.0 m | 772.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 479.0 m | 475.0 m | 500.0 m | 412.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 26.3 bn | 29.0 bn | 27.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 5.8 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 20.4 bn | 20.9 bn | 19.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.5 bn | 5.9 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 721.8 m | 720.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -732.0 m | -425.0 m | 1.3 bn | -891.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -316.0 m | -1.3 bn | -2.6 bn | -1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.74 – 63.13 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E19.74 – 63.13 (Mid 48.30)5 companies used · median multiple 38.9x · quartiles 15.9x – 50.9xJ, KBR, ORN, ROAD, STRL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.2% | 90 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.4% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 70.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 28 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial28/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth85/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial90/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Ferrovial N.V. (FER). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.6 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 5.2%; net margin 9.2%; ROE 14.8%.
The estimated value range is 19.74–63.13 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 9.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 70.5%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Heavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors (SIC 1600) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJacobs Solutions Inc. | 18.7 bn | 54.3 | 9.6% | 2.4% | +4.6% | +19% / +52% |
| STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc. | 8.7 bn | 15.9 | 43.3% | 12.9% | +17.7% | −18% / +347% |
| FLRFluor Corporation | 6.4 bn | — | -46.2% | -12.8% | −5.0% | +11% / +25% |
| GVAGranite Construction Inc | 5.8 bn | — | -25.2% | -5.0% | +10.4% | +23% / +188% |
| KBRKBR, Inc. | 5.0 bn | 11.4 | 27.4% | 5.7% | +1.0% | −4% / −23% |
| ROADConstruction Partners, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 38.9 | 15.0% | 4.1% | +54.2% | −9% / +137% |
| ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc. | 318.8 m | 50.9 | 3.5% | 0.6% | +7.0% | −22% / +63% |
| SHIMShimmick Corporation | 98.8 m | — | — | -3.8% | +2.6% | −9% / −61% |
| SLNDSouthland Holdings, Inc. | 40.8 m | — | — | -67.0% | −21.2% | −76% / −86% |
| FERFerrovial N.V. | — | — | 14.8% | 9.2% | +5.2% | −6% / unavailable |
| CDNLCardinal Infrastructure Group Inc | — | — | 7.4% | 2.7% | +44.7% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FER from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 25 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026).
In brief
Ferrovial N.V. is an international infrastructure group active in highways, airports, construction and energy, with operations in seven core markets and over 22,609 employees 1. The company is shifting focus toward complex managed-lanes projects in the US and Canada and toward data centers, while rotating mature assets to fund new opportunities 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has international presence for over four decades, with operations in several core markets and a large workforce 1.
- Its experience with urban congestion data supports competitiveness in dynamic-pricing projects and revenue optimization 1.
- Integrated divisions cover the full project lifecycle from design to operation, an advantage in complex tenders 1.
Weaknesses
- Construction revenues are seasonal and lower in the first quarter, which creates variation in cash flow 1.
- The group is capital-intensive and sensitive to the availability and cost of financing, especially in airports and highways 1.
- Traffic at Dalaman airport declined in 2025 due to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical stressors in Turkey 1.
Opportunities
- If complex dynamic-pricing highway projects in the US are awarded, equity investment commitments could increase significantly 1.
- The data center market could open a new growth line through Ferrovial Digital Infrastructure, still at an early stage 1.
- Terminal opportunities in the US and airport expansions in Europe could complement the Airports division's portfolio 1.
Threats
- US tariffs on imports can create material price volatility and project delays, affecting costs 1.
- Inflation and rising energy and raw material prices can affect the cost base, especially in contracts without pass-through mechanisms 1.
- The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East can influence demand, costs and supply chains, especially if they expand 1.
Risks
- 407 ETR traffic penaltieshigh
Under Schedule 22, 407 ETR may have to pay significant amounts if traffic falls below agreed thresholds, and a first payment could fall due in early 2026 1.
- Financing dependencemedium
Infrastructure assets require substantial financing, and a lack of access to capital or higher costs could materially affect operations 1.
- Currency riskmedium
The company is exposed to the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Indian rupee, Polish zloty, pound sterling and Australian dollar, and currency movements produced significant translation differences in 2025 1.
- Trade tariffsmedium
US tariffs keep changing and can raise project costs, especially in construction, with effects on financial planning 1.
- Regulation and permitslow
Activities are subject to rules in aviation, toll roads, energy and public procurement, and non-compliance can lead to fines, litigation or interruptions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If traffic on US and Canadian highways keeps growing, Highways revenues could support dividend flows to the group 1.
- Winning complex managed-lanes projects in the US could significantly expand the asset base under management 1.
- Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index could increase visibility among US investors, according to the company 1.
What would break the thesis
- Possible penalties at 407 ETR could reduce cash flow if traffic stays below contractual thresholds 1.
- Tariffs and material inflation could weigh on margins in the Construction division, especially in contracts without price adjustment 1.
- A capital-intensive group dependent on financing could face higher borrowing costs during periods of market instability 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of the Schedule 22 payment at 407 ETR2026
- Completion of NTE expansion works and their traffic impactearly 2027
- Outcome of US highway tenders where the company was shortlistednext 10-K
- Progress of Ferrovial Digital Infrastructure projects in Warsaw and Alcobendas2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 25 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026).
The business
Ferrovial was founded as a construction group focused on railway infrastructure and later expanded into highways, airport management and energy 1. It is organized into four business divisions that also serve as its reporting segments: Highways, Airports, Construction and Energy, plus an 'other' category 1. Its integrated model covers the full project lifecycle, from conceptualization and design through financing, construction and operation 1.
The group's strategy rests on four pillars: people, sustainable growth, operational excellence and innovation 1. In 2024 Ferrovial created the Ferrovial Digital Infrastructure business line to target data center investments, with early-stage projects in Warsaw and Alcobendas 1. The company began trading on Nasdaq in May 2024 and was included in the Nasdaq-100 Index in December 2025, which it says increases its visibility with US investors 1.
In 2025 the company completed several major asset transactions: it acquired an additional stake in 407 ETR, sold its stake in AGS Airports and sold its remaining stake in Heathrow 1. These asset rotations were used to fund new opportunities and support shareholder distributions 1.
Segments
Highways
The Highways division, run through Cintra, develops, finances and operates toll roads, mainly in the United States through Managed Lanes in Texas, I-66 in Virginia and I-77 in North Carolina, as well as in Canada through 407 ETR and in India through IRB and Private InvIT 1. The division received 880 million euros in dividends from its operating toll road subsidiaries in fiscal 2025 1.
Market context
The company operates in developed markets with high demand for transport infrastructure, notably the United States, Canada, Spain, Poland and the United Kingdom 1. Growth in mobility supported traffic across most highway assets in 2025, and the company expects traffic to increase in most of its highway assets in 2026 1. Public works demand underpins the Construction division, while data center demand is a new market for the group 1.
The market is shaped by US tariffs on imports, which have introduced uncertainty into material prices and project timelines and could affect cost planning 1. Construction companies are exposed to inflation in cement, concrete, steel and bitumen, although many contracts include price adjustment mechanisms 1.
Trends
- Rising highway traffictailwind
Traffic on 407 ETR and the US Managed Lanes grew in 2025, except on NTE and I-77 1. The company expects traffic to increase in 2026 on most assets, which could support Highways revenues 1.
- NTE expansion worksheadwind
Works to expand the NTE toll road started earlier than planned, affect traffic and are expected to continue in 2026, with completion in early 2027 1. The impact on traffic in 2025 was smaller than the company expected 1.
- US tariffs and material costsheadwind
New and proposed US tariffs on imports have created price volatility and possible project delays, which could raise costs in the Construction division 1.
- Data centers and energy investmentmixed
Ferrovial Digital Infrastructure targets high-value data center projects, and the Energy division develops renewable plants, including two solar plants under construction in Texas 1. These areas could open new growth sources but are still at an early stage 1.
Competitive position
The provided source does not describe specific competitors in detail. The company presents itself as one of the world's leading infrastructure groups by managed investment and construction revenue 1. Competition is most visible in bidding for US managed-lanes highway projects, where the company has been shortlisted for several 1.
The company's stated advantage is its proprietary data on urban congestion, which it says makes it competitive in dynamic-pricing projects and revenue optimization 1. Specific competitors are not named in the source, so the list below is limited to what is mentioned explicitly 1.
- Other US highway and infrastructure contractors
The source does not name competitors; direct competition appears in bidding for dynamic-pricing highway projects, where Ferrovial was shortlisted.
- Airport infrastructure companies
The source does not identify competitors for the airports it manages; its NTO and Dalaman activities take place in tender and concession contexts.
- Energy project developers and builders
The Energy division competes in renewable generation development and construction, but the source does not name other players.
- Data center operators
Ferrovial Digital Infrastructure enters a crowded data center market, and the source does not name competitors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Nashville’s Traffic Nightmare Is Now a $9.2B Ferrovial (FER)-Led ProjectYahoo Finance — News · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ferrovial to End Amsterdam Listing as Trading Shifts to USBloomberg Markets · 14 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 19 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ferrovial N.V. · 25 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.