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olivLaw · US equity research

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. STRL

Heavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors · SIC 1600 · Vertical: Heavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors (SIC 1600)

283.66USD−21.46% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Sterling Infrastructure is a US contractor working in three segments: electrical and site infrastructure (E-Infrastructure), transportation and residential and commercial building. The company is expanding fast, with revenue of [2.49] billion dollars in 2025 and a backlog of [3.01] billion dollars at year end, which has since grown according to its August 2026 reporting.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock was 283.66 USD (−21.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.7 bn USD, P/E 15.9 on diluted EPS of 17.82 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.33, 52-week range 283.57–993.74 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.6 bn USD (+127.0% YoY), net income of 214.9 m USD (+133.4% YoY), diluted EPS 6.92 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
8.7 bn USD
shares as of 27 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.9
Diluted EPS TTM 17.82 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.28%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.33
Volatility (1y) 89%
52-week range
283.57993.74

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
26.0
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
280.66 – 534.20
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.01 · band width 62.2%
SMA 50 / 200
462.15 / 551.65
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-44.89 / -37.24
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−45.8%−2.0%−43.8 pp—
3 months−47.1%−2.2%−44.9 pp—
6 months−68.0%+4.3%−72.3 pp—
Year to date−7.4%+10.6%−17.9 pp—
1 year−25.9%+10.5%−36.3 pp−9.0%
3 years+273.4%+73.7%+199.8 pp+52.0%
5 years+943.6%+61.7%+881.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−71.5%
04 Jun 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−71.5%
04 Jun 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+59.8%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.6 bn USD
+127.0% YoY
Net income
214.9 m USD
+133.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
6.92
+133.0% YoY
net / operating
13.7% / 19.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue498.8 m430.9 m614.5 m689.0 m755.6 m825.7 m1.2 bn1.6 bn
Cost of revenue392.2 m336.1 m471.3 m518.8 m591.5 m631.4 m878.2 m1.2 bn
Gross profit106.7 m94.8 m143.1 m170.2 m164.1 m194.3 m290.0 m377.3 m
Operating income62.3 m56.1 m104.6 m125.3 m120.0 m137.8 m219.3 m306.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation17.9 m17.0 m17.6 m ≈19.9 m ≈22.6 m23.0 m25.0 m ≈27.8 m ≈
Income tax38.4 m15.1 m27.4 m30.5 m25.8 m33.7 m51.3 m76.1 m
Net income113.2 m39.5 m71.0 m92.1 m87.6 m96.0 m155.8 m214.9 m
Diluted EPS3.65 ≈1.282.312.972.81 ≈3.095.006.92
Operating cash flow174.3 m84.9 m85.4 m ≈83.6 m ≈186.1 m165.6 m162.5 m ≈99.1 m ≈
Capex15.6 m17.9 m13.3 m ≈19.7 m ≈26.4 m19.6 m50.0 m ≈45.8 m ≈
Share repurchases20.0 m43.8 m0 ≈4.7 m ≈25.7 m12.3 m23.0 m ≈72.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 56 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 5.7, median 14.6, max 60.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.0 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.8 bn2.0 bn2.1 bn2.5 bn
Revenue YoY+8.3%+8.5%+8.9%+15.3%+25.1%+11.5%+7.3%+17.7%
Net income29.5 m40.7 m42.3 m62.6 m106.5 m138.7 m257.5 m290.2 m
Net income YoY+154.3%+37.8%+4.0%+48.1%+69.9%+30.2%+85.7%+12.7%
Diluted EPS0.931.471.502.153.484.448.279.38
Diluted EPS YoY+116.3%+58.1%+2.0%+43.3%+61.9%+27.6%+86.3%+13.4%
net %2.8%3.6%3.4%4.4%6.0%7.0%12.2%11.7%
Free cash flow26.3 m26.7 m90.0 m112.3 m158.2 m414.2 m416.2 m362.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
390.7 m USD
Financial debt
291.0 m USD
Net debt
-99.7 m USD
Equity
1.1 bn USD
Total assets
2.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.26x
Current ratio
1.01x
ROE
30.0%
ROA
12.5%
FCF margin
14.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
337.6 m
2024
426.1 m
2025
572.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
205.8 m
2024
264.6 m
2025
405.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
57.4 m
2024
68.4 m
2025
77.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
263.2 m ≈
2024
333.0 m ≈
2025
483.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Income tax
2023
47.8 m
2024
87.4 m
2025
98.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
138.7 m
2024
257.5 m
2025
290.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.44
2024
8.27
2025
9.38

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
31.2 m
2024
31.1 m
2025
30.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
471.6 m
2024
664.2 m
2025
390.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
848.0 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
281.1 m
2024
264.6 m
2025
585.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
328.4 m
2024
316.4 m
2025
554.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
146.0 m
2024
130.4 m
2025
226.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
26.5 m
2024
26.4 m
2025
15.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
315.0 m
2024
289.9 m
2025
275.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
678.2 m
2024
742.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
623.9 m
2024
826.5 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
478.6 m
2024
497.1 m
2025
440.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
64.4 m
2024
81.0 m
2025
77.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
414.2 m ≈
2024
416.2 m ≈
2025
362.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-87.8 m
2024
-185.8 m
2025
-551.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-104.5 m
2024
-118.6 m
2025
-161.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
70.6 m
2025
74.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
17.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
12.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
53.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
12.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
39.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
47.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
13.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
39.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
44.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
23.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
20.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
43.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
18.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
52.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
41.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-121.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
613.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
141.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
471.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
85.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
69.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
8.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
8.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
15.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
10.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
18.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
5.23
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 78 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

283.66 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 8.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
8.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
43.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
17.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 27 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2295derived 154

Score by group

  • Valuation66
  • Returns22
  • Quality94
  • Balance sheet77
  • Growth100

Estimated value range

Low
401.52
USD per share
Mid
546.05
USD per share
High
642.96
USD per share
Price: 283.66 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 92.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 48.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 231.86 – 922.00 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA231.86 – 363.91 (Mid 291.38)
    4 companies used · median multiple 9.9x · quartiles 7.9x – 12.4x
    GVA, KBR, ORN, ROAD
  • Peers: P/E571.18 – 922.00 (Mid 800.72)
    4 companies used · median multiple 44.9x · quartiles 32.1x – 51.7x
    J, KBR, ORN, ROAD
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Heavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors (SIC 1600)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 78/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality52.5%100 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality12.9%100 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality85.0%79 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth12.1%100 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth39.2%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.1x100 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x20 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation15.9x64 (on a fixed band)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation9.7x67 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation5.4%68 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.5%22 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet77/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial22/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (STRL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.7%; net margin 12.9%; ROE 43.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.

The estimated value range is 401.52–642.96 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 546.05 USD, the price of 283.66 USD leaves a potential of 92.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 48.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 78/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 52.5%
  • Net margin: 12.9%
  • FCF conversion: 85.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 39.2%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 1.0x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.5%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Heavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors (SIC 1600) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
15.9x
vertical median 44.9x
below median (−64.6%)
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
vertical median 12.9x
below median (−25.3%)
P/S
2.0x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+319.1%)
P/B
5.7x
vertical median 2.6x
above median (+120.5%)
ROE
43.3%
vertical median 8.5%
above median (+411.1%)
Net margin
12.9%
vertical median 1.5%
above median (+756.0%)
EBIT margin
18.2%
vertical median 6.0%
above median (+202.3%)
Revenue YoY
17.7%
vertical median 4.9%
above median (+259.8%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.1x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−104.1%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.3%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
JJacobs Solutions Inc.18.7 bn54.29.6%2.4%+4.6%+19% / +52%
STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.8.7 bn15.943.3%12.9%+17.7%−26% / +273%
FLRFluor Corporation6.4 bn—-46.2%-12.8%−5.0%+11% / +25%
GVAGranite Construction Inc5.8 bn—-25.2%-5.0%+10.4%+23% / +188%
KBRKBR, Inc.5.0 bn11.427.4%5.7%+1.0%−4% / −23%
ROADConstruction Partners, Inc.1.9 bn38.915.0%4.1%+54.2%−9% / +137%
ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc.318.8 m50.93.5%0.6%+7.0%−22% / +63%
SHIMShimmick Corporation98.8 m——-3.8%+2.6%−9% / −61%
SLNDSouthland Holdings, Inc.40.8 m——-67.0%−21.2%−76% / −86%
FERFerrovial N.V.——14.8%9.2%+5.2%−10% / +79%
CDNLCardinal Infrastructure Group Inc——7.4%2.7%+44.7%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for STRL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
183.97
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
324.15
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
486.76
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
3 years
206.72
Total return -27% · Per year -10%
407.07
Total return 44% · Per year 13%
667.03
Total return 135% · Per year 33%
5 years
232.28
Total return -18% · Per year -4%
511.19
Total return 80% · Per year 13%
914.06
Total return 222% · Per year 26%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 101.77
  • Net margin± 71.24
  • Annual revenue growth± 54.52
  • Annual dilution± 5.99

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Sterling Infrastructure is a US contractor working in three segments: electrical and site infrastructure (E-Infrastructure), transportation and residential and commercial building. The company is expanding fast, with revenue of [2.49] billion dollars in 2025 and a backlog of [3.01] billion dollars at year end, which has since grown according to its August 2026 reporting.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Rapidly growing backlog, much of it tied to mission-critical projects for large clients 3.
  • A track record of strong execution on complex, schedule-sensitive projects that supports better margins 1.
  • A decentralized business model that makes acquisitions and integration easier 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on a limited number of large customers, where losing one could affect results 1.
  • Fixed-price contracts leave the company exposed to cost overruns 1.
  • The residential segment is sensitive to the housing cycle and affordability 13.

Opportunities

  • Investment in data centers, semiconductors and manufacturing could keep generating multi-year projects 13.
  • Recent acquisitions could broaden services and geography if integration succeeds 2.
  • Shifting resources from transportation toward higher-margin work could improve profitability 3.

Threats

  • An economic recession or lower customer investment could reduce demand 1.
  • Shortages of materials, labor cost increases and fuel prices can squeeze margins 1.
  • Changes in public funding or policy could delay or reduce transportation bids 12.

Risks

  • Dependence on large customershigh

    A small number of customers generate a significant share of revenue, and losing one could have a material adverse effect 1.

  • Cost estimation errorshigh

    If actual costs exceed bid estimates, fixed-price contracts could generate losses or lower profit 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Integrating CEC and Stone Ridge could face unexpected operational or financial difficulties 2.

  • Weather conditionsmedium

    Long winters and extreme weather can delay work and reduce contract profitability 1.

  • IT securitylow

    Disruptions or cyber-attacks on IT systems could interrupt operations and data 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Rapidly rising backlog and raised guidance could signal a long period of growth 3.
  • A growing share of mission-critical data center and manufacturing work could support better margins over time 13.
  • If acquisition integration succeeds, the company could grow revenue without losing efficiency 23.

What would break the thesis

  • Rapid growth through acquisitions could bring integration risk and overestimation of synergies 2.
  • If data center investment slows, backlog could fall faster than expected 1.
  • The residential and transportation segments could stay weak, putting pressure on their margins 13.

What to watch

  • Backlog trends and book-to-burn ratiosQ3 2026
  • Stone Ridge integration and E-Infrastructure marginsQ3 2026
  • Delivery against 2026 guidance for revenue and adjusted EPS2026
  • Demand for homebuilding in Texas and Arizonanext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Sterling operates through several subsidiaries in three segments: E-Infrastructure Solutions, which provides large-scale site development and mission-critical electrical services for data centers, semiconductor fabs and warehouses 1; Transportation Solutions, covering highways, airports, ports, rail and storm drainage 1; and Building Solutions, which includes concrete foundations for homes and commercial buildings, plus plumbing services 1. Since 2016 the company has focused on reducing risk, cutting low-bid heavy highway work from about 79% of revenue to 9% at December 31, 2025 1.

Its strategy has four pillars: solidifying the base, growing high-margin products, expanding into adjacent markets through acquisitions, and building a platform for future growth 1. Acquisitions have been central: CEC Facilities Group, a specialty electrical and mechanical contractor, was bought in September 2025, and Stone Ridge Contracting, a site development contractor, in June 2026 12. Both sit in the E-Infrastructure segment 23.

Customers are mostly large data center and industrial companies, state transportation departments and large homebuilders 1. Contracts are usually fixed-unit price or lump sum, which shifts more risk onto the company, and most backlog is completed within 6 to 36 months 1. At December 31, 2025 the company had about 4,400 employees 1.

Segments

Building Solutions

A segment with 15% of 2025 revenue and an operating margin of 10.2%, down from the prior year 1. Activity depends on new home starts, especially in Dallas-Fort Worth; demand has weakened since the second half of 2024 due to housing affordability 1. Second quarter 2026 revenue dipped slightly, by 1% 3.

Market context

The company operates in US infrastructure markets, mainly in the Southern, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic and Rocky Mountain regions 1. Demand from data centers and high-tech manufacturing is supported by multi-year capital plans from large customers 1. Guidance for 2026 points to revenue between 4.00 and 4.15 billion dollars, which would be a significant increase over 2025 3.

The transportation market remains supported by state and federal funding, while the residential market is more fragile because of housing affordability 13. Competition is fragmented: small local firms and large international contractors can move into the mid-level segment if the market weakens, which could increase pricing pressure 1.

Trends

  • Data center and AI investmenttailwind

    Building data centers for cloud and artificial intelligence creates large multi-year projects for E-Infrastructure 1. If these capital plans hold, backlog could keep growing 3.

  • Public infrastructure fundingmixed

    Federal and state funds support transportation projects, and the company expects the market to stay strong in 2026 1. However, funding depends on budgets and policy, which can change contract timing 1.

  • Housing affordabilityheadwind

    Demand from homebuilders has declined since 2024 and could stay weak for a period, according to management 13. Long-term growth remains possible if population growth and housing shortages support demand 1.

  • Material and labor costsheadwind

    Prices for materials and fuel, along with labor shortages, can erode margins, especially on fixed-price contracts 1. If these costs cannot be passed on, profitability could decline 1.

Competitive position

The company positions itself in the mid-level market, competing with small local contractors and large national or international firms 1. Competitors with greater financial resources or lower margin requirements can reduce the company's chances of winning new backlog at acceptable margins 2.

In transportation, competition for road work is intense, and price pressure could reduce margins on won contracts 1. If the market weakens, both small and large firms could move into the company's segment, intensifying bidding 1.

  • Local and regional site development contractors

    Compete for smaller work and could move into the mid-level segment if the market weakens 1.

  • Large national and international construction firms

    Compete for large projects and may have greater financial resources 12.

  • Specialty electrical and mechanical contractors

    Compete for electrical services to data centers and factories, a segment where CEC was acquired 1.

  • Homebuilders and foundation contractors

    Compete in residential markets in Texas and Arizona, where activity depends on the housing cycle 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
  • Current report28 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report05 Oct 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
  • Current report03 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Jul 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Current report08 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report09 Jun 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report21 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Current report12 May 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. · 03 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.