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olivLaw · US equity research

Full House Resorts, Inc. FLL

Hotels & Motels · SIC 7011 · Vertical: Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011)

0.79USD+4.54% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Full House Resorts operates casinos and hospitality facilities in Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana and Mississippi, with growing emphasis on its new American Place casino in Waukegan. The second quarter of 2026 showed growth, but the company remains heavily indebted, and its debt raises important questions for investors.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) stock was 0.79 USD (+4.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 29.1 m USD, beta 1.21, 52-week range 0.74–3.32 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 78.1 m USD (+5.6% YoY), net income of -8.7 m USD, diluted EPS -0.24 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
29.1 m USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.02 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-128.69%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.21
Volatility (1y) 68%
52-week range
0.743.32

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
25.7
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.66 – 1.26
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.22 · band width 62.1%
SMA 50 / 200
1.48 / 2.24
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.21 / -0.22
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−42.0%−1.1%−40.9 pp—
3 months−64.2%−0.5%−63.8 pp—
6 months−68.5%+4.4%−72.9 pp—
Year to date−69.6%+12.3%−81.9 pp—
1 year−67.0%+13.5%−80.6 pp+9.5%
3 years−79.8%+76.4%−156.2 pp+9.3%
5 years−92.4%+63.7%−156.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−77.7%
12 Jun 2026 → 02 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−94.0%
27 Dec 2021 → 02 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−40.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
78.1 m USD
+5.6% YoY
Net income
-8.7 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.24
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-11.1% / 2.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue75.7 m73.0 m75.1 m73.9 m78.0 m75.4 m74.4 m78.1 m
Cost of revenue5.9 m5.8 m4.9 m4.8 m5.3 m5.2 m5.0 m5.4 m
SG&A26.7 m27.2 m26.9 m27.9 m27.8 m27.2 m25.1 m27.7 m
Operating income2.4 m-1.4 m738.0 k-74.0 k3.4 m-976.0 k2.4 m2.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation10.5 m10.7 m10.6 m10.6 m10.6 m10.8 m10.6 m10.4 m
Interest expense11.0 m10.9 m10.3 m10.4 m11.1 m11.0 m10.4 m10.8 m
Pre-tax income-8.6 m-12.3 m-9.6 m-10.5 m-7.7 m-11.9 m-8.0 m-8.6 m
Income tax-126.0 k10.0 k206.0 k-95.0 k-14.0 k433.0 k120.0 k121.0 k
Net income-8.5 m-12.3 m-9.8 m-10.4 m-7.7 m-12.4 m-8.2 m-8.7 m
Diluted EPS-0.24-0.35 ≈-0.27-0.29-0.21-0.34 ≈-0.23-0.24
Operating cash flow-6.7 m ≈14.8 m-7.1 m1.2 m ≈3.8 m ≈12.0 m-3.8 m2.4 m ≈
Capex10.7 m ≈8.0 m2.9 m3.3 m ≈5.1 m ≈1.4 m2.7 m1.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue163.9 m165.4 m125.6 m180.2 m163.3 m241.1 m292.1 m302.4 m
Revenue YoY+1.6%+0.9%−24.1%+43.5%−9.4%+47.6%+21.2%+3.5%
Net income-4.4 m-5.8 m147.0 k11.7 m-14.8 m-24.9 m-40.7 m-40.2 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+7,863.3%−226.5%unavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.23-0.220.010.33-0.43-0.72-1.16-1.12
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+3,200.0%−230.3%unavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-2.7%-3.5%0.1%6.5%-9.1%-10.3%-13.9%-13.3%
Free cash flow-7.2 m2.4 m6.4 m-7.5 m-166.6 m-126.2 m-38.7 m-2.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
40.7 m USD
Financial debt
473.6 m USD
Net debt
433.0 m USD
Equity
2.5 m USD
Total assets
649.8 m USD
Debt / equity
186.62x
Current ratio
0.72x
ROE
-186.8%
ROA
-6.1%
FCF margin
-0.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
241.1 m
2024
292.1 m
2025
302.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
19.4 m
2024
22.7 m
2025
20.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
221.7 m ≈
2024
269.4 m ≈
2025
282.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

SG&A
2023
85.7 m
2024
104.1 m
2025
109.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-1.2 m
2024
2.8 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
31.1 m
2024
42.1 m
2025
42.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
29.9 m ≈
2024
44.9 m ≈
2025
45.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
23.0 m
2024
43.2 m
2025
42.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-23.8 m
2024
-40.5 m
2025
-39.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.1 m
2024
221.0 k
2025
530.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-24.9 m
2024
-40.7 m
2025
-40.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.72
2024
-1.16
2025
-1.12

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
34.5 m
2024
35.0 m
2025
36.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
36.2 m
2024
40.2 m
2025
40.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
5.3 m
2024
5.1 m
2025
3.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.8 m
2024
2.1 m
2025
2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
84.6 m
2024
53.4 m
2025
53.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
21.3 m
2024
19.5 m
2025
19.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
76.3 m
2024
96.1 m
2025
108.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
688.5 m
2024
673.3 m
2025
649.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
12.8 m
2024
8.4 m
2025
8.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2021verified

Long-term debt
2023
465.2 m
2024
468.1 m
2025
473.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
78.6 m
2024
67.5 m
2025
73.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
610.6 m
2024
632.8 m
2025
647.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
77.8 m †
2024
40.5 m †
2025
2.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
22.3 m
2024
13.8 m
2025
10.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
148.6 m
2024
52.6 m
2025
12.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-126.2 m ≈
2024
-38.7 m ≈
2025
-2.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-198.8 m
2024
-45.7 m
2025
-10.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
59.0 m
2024
-1.5 m
2025
801.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
22.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
19.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
13.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
93.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
16.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-936.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
436.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
14.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
10.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
4.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
29.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
5 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
114 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
29.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
465.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-128.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
65.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
7.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
13.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.79 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 29.1 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
29.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-936.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2188derived 181

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
11.78
USD per share
Mid
22.60
USD per share
High
56.53
USD per share
Price: 0.79 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 2,745.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 96.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.00 – 102.75 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)23.57 – 102.75 (Mid 41.88)
    WACC 5.3% · starting FCFF 40.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 88%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA0.00 – 10.31 (Mid 3.32)
    14 companies used · median multiple 11.3x · quartiles 6.1x – 16.4x
    BYD, CHH, CNTY, CZR, HLT, IHG, LVS, MGM, MLCO, PK, TNL, WH, WYNN, XHR
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-12.1%8 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth22.8%100 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet8.8x5 (vs peers)19%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.2x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.6x0 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation9.4x69 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuation13.6%100 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet3/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial8/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation83/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

FULL HOUSE RESORTS INC (FLL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 302.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.5%; net margin -12.1%; ROE -936.4%; net debt/EBITDA 8.8x.

The estimated value range is 11.78–56.53 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.60 USD, the price of 0.79 USD leaves a potential of 2,745.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 96.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 22.8%
  • FCF yield: 13.6%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -12.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 8.8x
  • Interest coverage: 0.2x
  • Current ratio: 0.6x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 30.2x
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
vertical median 13.6x
below median (−30.8%)
P/S
0.1x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−94.8%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.2x
ROE
-936.4%
vertical median 15.4%
below median (−6,171.7%)
Net margin
-12.1%
vertical median 5.8%
below median (−308.5%)
EBIT margin
2.3%
vertical median 15.7%
below median (−85.3%)
Revenue YoY
3.5%
vertical median 4.2%
below median (−16.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
8.8x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+164.9%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
HTHTH World Group Ltd154.3 bn218.441.5%20.1%+10.5%+9% / +37%
MARMarriott International Inc109.4 bn42.4—9.7%+4.3%+39% / +110%
HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.83.8 bn50.8—13.4%+7.7%+32% / +125%
IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC29.0 bn36.2—14.6%+5.4%+31% / +124%
LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.25.5 bn16.7262.8%11.8%+15.2%−40% / −12%
ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited14.5 bn63.750.5%16.6%+41.0%−9% / +97%
WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited8.5 bn19.7—6.1%+0.1%−36% / −2%
MGMMGM Resorts International8.3 bn12.726.8%3.9%+1.7%−7% / −17%
CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.6.0 bn—-15.1%-4.5%+2.1%+26% / −34%
WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.5.9 bn29.838.2%14.0%+1.5%+10% / +4%
MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited5.7 bn30.6—3.6%+11.3%−48% / −33%
BYDBoyd Gaming Corp5.5 bn11.719.6%12.3%+4.1%−7% / +32%
CHHChoice Hotels International Inc5.4 bn26.7146.5%12.7%+0.8%+32% / +9%
TNLTravel & Leisure Co.4.7 bn20.7—5.7%+4.1%+13% / +118%
PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc.3.4 bn—-5.0%-6.4%−2.2%+57% / +14%
SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.2.4 bn54.72.8%5.3%+6.0%+39% / +32%
PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc.2.3 bn—-37.4%-12.7%+5.8%+18% / −29%
XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.2.0 bn628.90.3%0.3%+3.8%+57% / +79%
MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.2.0 bn17.920.4%20.4%+4.4%+17% / +80%
BALYBally’s Corporation680.3 m———+0.1%−23% / unavailable
FLLFull House Resorts Inc29.1 m—-936.4%-12.1%+3.5%−67% / −80%
CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc.16.9 m——-9.6%−0.5%−61% / −86%
RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.—29.160.8%5.8%+3.7%−17% / +9%
MRNOMurano Global Investments Plc——-54.7%-488.8%+154.6%−88% / −98%
HHyatt Hotels Corporation—98.65.6%2.6%+6.8%+16% / +66%

1- and 3-year price returns: for FLL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

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Estimated price (USD)

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What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Full House Resorts operates casinos and hospitality facilities in Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana and Mississippi, with growing emphasis on its new American Place casino in Waukegan. The second quarter of 2026 showed growth, but the company remains heavily indebted, and its debt raises important questions for investors 13.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Diversified casino portfolio across several states, with newer properties ramping up quickly 13.
    • Solid growth in revenues and Adjusted EBITDA in the latest reported quarter 3.
    • Most properties are owned, giving operational flexibility 1.

    Weaknesses

    • High dependence on a few markets, especially Illinois and Mississippi 1.
    • Significant indebtedness and high interest costs that have produced net losses 13.
    • Some leases and buyout options limit control over properties 1.

    Opportunities

    • Completion of the permanent American Place casino could bring significant growth 3.
    • Maturing of Chamonix could improve profitability in Colorado 3.
    • Successful refinancing could reduce interest costs 3.

    Threats

    • Rising competition from online gaming and new forms of gambling 1.
    • Falling discretionary spending in an economic downturn 1.
    • Risk of losing leases or facing unexpected operational disruptions 1.

    Risks

    • High indebtednesshigh

      Senior secured notes due 2028 form the main debt, and refinancing is still in progress 3. Delays could affect the company's ability to meet its obligations.

    • Geographic concentrationhigh

      Revenues depend on a few states, so regional problems could have a large impact on results 1.

    • Lease arrangementsmedium

      Some casinos sit on leased land, and non-renewal or termination of leases could mean losing possession 1.

    • Licensing and regulationmedium

      The industry is heavily regulated, and legislative changes or licensing delays could affect operations 12.

    • External factorslow

      Weather, road works, pandemics or natural disasters could reduce customer traffic 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If American Place keeps growing and opens on schedule, the company could see a meaningful improvement in results 3.
    • Growth at Chamonix and in Adjusted EBITDA could show that the development strategy is paying off 3.
    • A successful debt refinancing could reduce financial risk and support development plans 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • If refinancing is delayed, the high debt load could become a serious problem 3.
    • Geographic concentration could amplify the impact of a downturn in Illinois or Mississippi 1.
    • Persistent net losses could limit the company's ability to fund growth from internal resources 13.

    What to watch

    • Progress on refinancing the senior secured notes and terms of new financing2026
    • American Place revenue trend before the permanent openingQ3 2026
    • Maturing of Chamonix and Bronco Billy's results2027
    • Permanent American Place opening and its financing2028

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Full House Resorts, Inc., formed as a Delaware corporation in 1987 and headquartered in Las Vegas, owns, leases and operates casinos and hospitality and entertainment facilities 1. The company runs six casinos, five on owned or leased real estate, plus sports wagering websites in Indiana and Illinois 1. Total revenues were 302.4 million USD in fiscal 2025, up 3.5% 1.

    The strategy focuses on improving existing properties through revenue growth and expense management, and on assessing new property development and acquisitions 1. The business model depends on casinos generating operating cash flow to pay interest and debt 1. The company sold Stockman’s Casino in April 2025 and completed the phased opening of Chamonix in October 2024 1.

    Segments

    Contracted Sports Wagering

    The segment earns revenue from sports betting websites operated under contracts with third parties, subject to annual minimums 1. Revenues were 1.5 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, down from the prior-year period when an additional skin was active 3.

    Market context

    The company operates in a heavily regulated and highly competitive gaming market, facing traditional casinos, lotteries, online betting and other entertainment 1. Its casinos are concentrated in a few regions, and Illinois and Mississippi generate a major share of revenues and Adjusted EBITDA 1.

    The market is sensitive to discretionary consumer spending and regional economic conditions, and online gaming could divert customers from physical casinos 1. Liquidity stood at 48.4 million USD as of June 30, 2026 3.

    Trends

    • Ramp-up of newer propertiestailwind

      American Place and Chamonix are still growing, and their revenues rose significantly in the second quarter of 2026 3. If this continues, it could support the company's results 3.

    • Debt refinancingmixed

      The company reported progress on refinancing its primary debt, particularly the senior secured notes due 2028 3. Delays in legal documentation could postpone resolution 3.

    • Discretionary spendingheadwind

      A decline in discretionary spending due to economic conditions, inflation or uncertainty could reduce casino revenues 1.

    • Expansion of online gamingmixed

      Legalization of online betting and gaming could diversify demand but also draw customers away from physical casinos 1.

    Competitive position

    Competition includes traditional casinos, tribal casinos, state lotteries, slot machines in bars and restaurants, online betting and other entertainment 1. The company cites location, product quality and promotional programs as key differentiators 1.

    In Illinois, American Place competes with two other casinos in the northern Chicago suburbs and a tribal casino in Milwaukee 1. In Colorado, Chamonix and Bronco Billy’s are among several facilities in Cripple Creek 1.

    • Casinos in the northern Chicago suburbs

      Two competing casinos for American Place; no US ticker identified in the sources.

    • Tribal casino in Milwaukee

      Competitor for American Place in the Chicago market area; no ticker identified.

    • Louisiana and Mississippi casinos

      Competition for Silver Slipper from riverboat and racetrack casinos.

    • Cincinnati and Louisville casinos

      Competition for Rising Star from casinos in Ohio and Kentucky.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Full House Resorts, Inc. · 16 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Full House Resorts, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Full House Resorts, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.