olivLaw · US equity research
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. MCRI
Hotels & Motels · SIC 7011 · Vertical: Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011)
Monarch Casino & Resort operates two casino hotel resorts, the Atlantis in Reno, Nevada and Monarch Black Hawk in Colorado, and depends entirely on them for its operating cash flow. Net revenue rose 4.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 to 142.6 million USD, which makes the company relevant for investors following regional gaming markets.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) stock was 113.13 USD (−0.66% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.0 bn USD, P/E 17.9 on diluted EPS of 6.31 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.06%, beta 0.60, 52-week range 89.30–133.87 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 146.3 m USD (+2.4% YoY), net income of 32.0 m USD (+1.4% YoY), diluted EPS 1.76 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 111.14 – 116.80
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.35 · band width 5.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 117.41 / 113.01
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.26 / -1.43
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.3% | −1.1% | −3.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.0% | −0.5% | −6.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.8% | +4.4% | −8.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +18.2% | +12.3% | +5.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +25.9% | +13.5% | +12.4 pp | +1.1% |
| 3 years | +80.7% | +76.4% | +4.3 pp | +9.1% |
| 5 years | +56.1% | +63.7% | −7.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 134.5 m | 125.4 m | 136.9 m | 142.8 m | 140.0 m | 136.6 m | 142.6 m | 146.3 m |
| Gross profit | 3.9 m | 25.3 m | 34.9 m | 38.2 m | 29.1 m | 34.9 m | 38.6 m | 41.3 m |
| SG&A | 27.8 m | 27.2 m | 26.8 m | 27.5 m | 27.9 m | 27.8 m | 28.6 m | 29.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 13.4 m | 13.2 m | 13.6 m | 14.1 m | 13.2 m | 10.5 m | 10.7 m | 10.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 4.1 m | 25.6 m | 35.3 m | 38.7 m | 29.8 m | 35.5 m | 39.4 m | 42.1 m |
| Income tax | -63.0 k | 5.8 m | 8.3 m | 7.2 m | 6.8 m | 8.0 m | 6.8 m | 10.1 m |
| Net income | 4.2 m | 19.9 m | 27.0 m | 31.6 m | 22.9 m | 27.6 m | 32.5 m | 32.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.22 ≈ | 1.05 | 1.44 | 1.69 | 1.25 ≈ | 1.52 | 1.78 | 1.76 |
| Operating cash flow | 37.8 m | 36.5 m | 34.1 m ≈ | 56.0 m ≈ | 38.1 m | 48.5 m | 30.7 m ≈ | 50.8 m ≈ |
| Capex | 11.6 m | 19.8 m | 8.1 m ≈ | 2.5 m ≈ | 5.9 m | 5.6 m | 5.2 m ≈ | 8.9 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 5.5 m | 5.5 m | 5.5 m ≈ | 5.5 m ≈ | 5.4 m | 5.4 m | 5.4 m ≈ | 5.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | -63.0 k | — | — | 11.3 m ≈ | 41.4 m | 17.7 m | -212.0 k ≈ | 37.4 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 30 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 12.9, median 20.8, max 57.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 240.3 m | 249.2 m | 184.4 m | 395.4 m | 477.9 m | 501.5 m | 522.2 m | 545.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | +4.2% | +3.7% | −26.0% | +114.4% | +20.9% | +4.9% | +4.1% | +4.4% |
| Net income | 34.1 m | 31.8 m | 23.7 m | 68.5 m | 87.5 m | 82.4 m | 72.8 m | 101.4 m |
| Net income YoY | +33.5% | −6.7% | −25.6% | +189.2% | +27.7% | −5.8% | −11.7% | +39.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.83 | 1.70 | 1.25 | 3.53 | 4.47 | 4.20 | 3.84 | 5.43 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +31.7% | −7.1% | −26.5% | +182.4% | +26.6% | −6.0% | −8.6% | +41.4% |
| net % | 14.2% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 17.3% | 18.3% | 16.4% | 13.9% | 18.6% |
| Free cash flow | -78.3 m | -62.1 m | -57.2 m | 81.2 m | 100.3 m | 124.0 m | 93.3 m | 128.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 96.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 537.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 712.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.86x
- ROE
- 19.2%
- ROA
- 14.4%
- FCF margin
- 23.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 184.4 m | 395.4 m | 477.9 m | 501.5 m | 522.2 m | 545.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 15.3 m | 89.9 m | 111.4 m | 110.2 m | 92.5 m | 127.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 60.4 m | 84.4 m | 97.6 m | 105.8 m | 108.3 m | 109.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 17.3 m | 38.4 m | 43.4 m | 47.3 m | 51.4 m | 54.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 15.0 m | 85.4 m | 109.0 m | 108.5 m | 92.4 m | 129.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -8.7 m | 16.9 m | 21.5 m | 26.1 m | 19.6 m | 28.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 23.7 m | 68.5 m | 87.5 m | 82.4 m | 72.8 m | 101.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.25 | 3.53 | 4.47 | 4.20 | 3.84 | 5.43 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 18.9 m | 19.4 m | 19.6 m | 19.6 m | 19.0 m | 18.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | 5.90 | 1.20 | 1.20 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 28.3 m | 33.5 m | 38.8 m | 43.4 m | 58.8 m | 96.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.7 m | 8.9 m | 9.6 m | 12.0 m | 10.3 m | 11.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 7.8 m | 7.2 m | 7.6 m | 7.6 m | 9.3 m | 9.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 73.2 m | 84.1 m | 89.4 m | 75.0 m | 90.4 m | 129.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 572.5 m | 580.8 m | 578.1 m | 580.5 m | 575.3 m | 556.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 25.1 m | 25.1 m | 25.1 m | 25.1 m | 25.1 m | 25.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 973.0 k | 477.0 k | 352.0 k | 299.0 k | 345.0 k | 680.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 671.9 m | 690.5 m | 692.9 m | 680.9 m | 691.6 m | 712.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 11.7 m | 18.6 m | 14.4 m | 23.1 m | 41.2 m | 44.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 68.2 m | — | 5.5 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 109.4 m | 141.2 m | 117.7 m | 123.4 m | 146.5 m | 150.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 303.8 m | 242.4 m | 154.0 m | 167.7 m | 173.8 m | 175.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 368.1 m † | 448.0 m † | 539.0 m † | 513.1 m † | 517.7 m † | 537.7 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 31.4 m | 128.1 m | 139.8 m | 173.0 m | 140.7 m | 164.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 88.7 m | 46.9 m | 39.5 m | 49.0 m | 47.4 m | 36.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -57.2 m ≈ | 81.2 m ≈ | 100.3 m ≈ | 124.0 m ≈ | 93.3 m ≈ | 128.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -46.4 m | -37.8 m | -48.0 m | -51.2 m | -43.8 m | -37.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -17.3 m | -85.1 m | -86.5 m | -117.2 m | -81.5 m | -89.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | — | 112.8 m | 22.3 m | 21.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 6.5 m | 5.0 m | 60.0 m | 72.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 74 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation85
- Returns91
- Quality100
- Balance sheet31
- Growth41
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 125.96 – 257.62 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E125.96 – 257.62 (Mid 185.94)14 companies used · median multiple 29.5x · quartiles 20.0x – 40.8xATAT, BYD, CHH, HLT, IHG, LVS, MAR, MGM, MLCO, RRR, SHO, TNL, WH, WYNN
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate15.77 – 21.21 (Mid 18.09)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 74/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 20.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 123.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.5% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.7% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.9x | 82 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.1% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.9% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 15.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial31/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth41/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns91/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MONARCH CASINO & RESORT, INC. (MCRI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 545.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.4%; net margin 20.4%; ROE 20.4%.
The estimated value range is 125.96–257.62 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 185.94 USD, the price of 113.13 USD leaves a potential of 64.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 39.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 74/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 20.4%
- FCF conversion: 123.9%
- P/E (TTM): 17.9x
- FCF yield: 7.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 15.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTHTH World Group Ltd | 154.3 bn | 218.4 | 41.5% | 20.1% | +10.5% | +9% / +37% |
| MARMarriott International Inc | 109.4 bn | 42.4 | — | 9.7% | +4.3% | +39% / +110% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 83.8 bn | 50.8 | — | 13.4% | +7.7% | +32% / +125% |
| IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC | 29.0 bn | 36.2 | — | 14.6% | +5.4% | +31% / +124% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | 25.5 bn | 16.7 | 262.8% | 11.8% | +15.2% | −40% / −12% |
| ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | 14.5 bn | 63.7 | 50.5% | 16.6% | +41.0% | −9% / +97% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | 8.5 bn | 19.7 | — | 6.1% | +0.1% | −36% / −2% |
| MGMMGM Resorts International | 8.3 bn | 12.7 | 26.8% | 3.9% | +1.7% | −7% / −17% |
| CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc. | 6.0 bn | — | -15.1% | -4.5% | +2.1% | +26% / −34% |
| WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 29.8 | 38.2% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +10% / +4% |
| MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | 5.7 bn | 30.6 | — | 3.6% | +11.3% | −48% / −33% |
| BYDBoyd Gaming Corp | 5.5 bn | 11.7 | 19.6% | 12.3% | +4.1% | −7% / +32% |
| CHHChoice Hotels International Inc | 5.4 bn | 26.7 | 146.5% | 12.7% | +0.8% | +32% / +9% |
| TNLTravel & Leisure Co. | 4.7 bn | 20.7 | — | 5.7% | +4.1% | +13% / +118% |
| PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -5.0% | -6.4% | −2.2% | +57% / +14% |
| SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 54.7 | 2.8% | 5.3% | +6.0% | +39% / +32% |
| PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc. | 2.3 bn | — | -37.4% | -12.7% | +5.8% | +18% / −29% |
| XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 628.9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | +3.8% | +57% / +79% |
| MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 17.9 | 20.4% | 20.4% | +4.4% | +26% / +81% |
| BALYBally’s Corporation | 680.3 m | — | — | — | +0.1% | −23% / unavailable |
| FLLFull House Resorts Inc | 29.1 m | — | -936.4% | -12.1% | +3.5% | −70% / −84% |
| CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc. | 16.9 m | — | — | -9.6% | −0.5% | −61% / −86% |
| MRNOMurano Global Investments Plc | — | — | -54.7% | -488.8% | +154.6% | −88% / −98% |
| HHyatt Hotels Corporation | — | 98.6 | 5.6% | 2.6% | +6.8% | +16% / +66% |
| GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. | — | — | 11.2% | 15.2% | −14.7% | −50% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MCRI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 69.16 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 122.26 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 184.17 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 67.10 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 133.48 Total return 22% · Per year 7% | 220.77 Total return 100% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 65.10 Total return -38% · Per year -9% | 145.73 Total return 35% · Per year 6% | 264.64 Total return 142% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 33.37
- Net margin± 23.36
- Annual revenue growth± 19.18
- Annual dilution± 1.96
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Monarch Casino & Resort operates two casino hotel resorts, the Atlantis in Reno, Nevada and Monarch Black Hawk in Colorado, and depends entirely on them for its operating cash flow 1. Net revenue rose 4.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 to 142.6 million USD 3, which makes the company relevant for investors following regional gaming markets.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has two well-positioned properties, a direct link to the Reno convention center and a solid balance sheet with no credit facility borrowings at June 30, 2026 13.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin has stayed near record levels, showing operating efficiency and capacity to fund investment and dividends 3.
- A shared loyalty program across both properties supports guest retention 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on two properties makes the company vulnerable to local economic changes and problems in these markets 1.
- Labor and food and beverage costs have risen, which could reduce profitability 3.
- The dispute with the Black Hawk general contractor may create additional costs and bonding obligations 13.
Opportunities
- If demand from Denver and the Front Range stays strong, Monarch Black Hawk could attract more high-end guests 1.
- Expansion options on the 16-acre Reno parcel could support long-term growth 1.
- The company is evaluating potential M&A transactions that could add long-term value for stockholders if completed 3.
Risks
- Dependence on two propertieshigh
The company relies entirely on Atlantis and Monarch Black Hawk for operating cash flow, so local events carry outsized impact 1.
- General contractor litigationhigh
The lawsuit with the Black Hawk general contractor produced a judgment in the contractor's favor, and the company's appeal is pending, which could bring significant costs 13.
- Competition and promotional spendingmedium
Intense competition in Reno and Colorado may require costlier promotions that could compress margins 12.
- Labor costs and inflationmedium
Labor shortages, higher minimum wages and general inflation could raise operating costs 12.
- Discretionary spending exposurelow
A decline in consumer confidence or leisure travel could reduce visitor numbers and spending 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Net revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew in the second quarter of 2026, and margins stayed near record levels, suggesting solid execution 3.
- The balance sheet is strong with no credit facility borrowings, allowing the company to keep investing and paying dividends from operating cash flow 3.
- Atlantis's convention-center location and Monarch Black Hawk's appeal to high-end Colorado guests could support long-term revenue growth 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on two properties means any local shock could have a large effect on the whole company 1.
- The general contractor dispute remains unresolved and could require significant payments or bonding 13.
- Growth in tribal gaming and online sports betting could erode the company's market share over time 12.
What to watch
- Outcome of the appeal in the Black Hawk general contractor litigationnext 10-K
- Revenue trends from gaming and hotel operations at AtlantisQ3 2026
- Effect of tariffs and inflation on operating costsQ3 2026
- Any merger or acquisition transactions the company announces2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc., incorporated in Nevada in 1993, owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk in Colorado 1. Its strategy targets revenue, operating income and cash flow from casino, food and beverage and hotel operations at both properties, with emphasis on customer service and cost efficiency 1. The company states it is entirely dependent on these two properties for operating cash flow, which exposes it to greater risk than an operator with more properties 1.
Capital expenditures were 37.2 million USD in 2025, down from 43.9 million USD in 2024, mainly for hotel room and suite renovations at Atlantis and gaming equipment 1. In 2026 the company continued paying cash dividends, and a 0.30 USD per share dividend is payable on September 15, 2026 3.
Segments
Atlantis (Reno, Nevada)
Atlantis sits about three miles south of downtown Reno and features about 61,000 square feet of casino space, eight restaurants and a 30,000 square-foot spa 1. Average daily room rate was 164.61 USD in 2025 and revenue per available room was 150.50 USD 1.
Monarch Black Hawk (Colorado)
Monarch Black Hawk is the first gaming property visitors reach from Denver on Highway 119 and targets high-tier guests along Colorado's Front Range 1. Average daily room rate was 223.36 USD in 2025 and revenue per available room was 191.15 USD 1.
Monarch Rewards and hotel operations
The Monarch Rewards loyalty program links both properties and tracks guest play to guide awards and direct marketing 1. Hotel revenue rose 13.0% in the second quarter of 2026, helped by more available rooms at Atlantis and expanded convention and group business 3.
Market context
Trends
- Labor cost pressureheadwind
Both properties face labor shortages and wage inflation, which raised food and beverage and labor costs, although the company reported efficiency gains in casino and hotel operations 13. If these pressures persist, they could compress margins.
- Competition from California tribal gaming and Northern Nevada promotionsheadwind
Growth in California tribal gaming and aggressive promotional activity in Northern Nevada could affect Atlantis revenue growth and margins 12. The company notes these pressures may disrupt its revenue and margin improvement 2.
- Sports betting expansion in Colorado and Nevadamixed
Growing state-wide online and retail sports betting, plus removed betting limits and new game types in Black Hawk, could benefit Monarch Black Hawk 12. The effect depends on state regulation and competition from online operators.
Competitive position
Reno gaming competition is intense: the company identifies other large casinos, particularly those outside downtown, and Las Vegas as rivals for convention business 1. In Black Hawk, constitutional limits restrict new entrants, but Native American casinos and online wagering could add competition 1.
The company argues Atlantis has an advantage from its location and direct link to the convention center, and Monarch Black Hawk from product quality and access to high-end players 1. Competition for players may still force costlier promotions that could reduce profitability 1.
- Large casinos in and around Reno
Compete for local and leisure guests with mid to upper-middle market offerings and aggressive promotions 1.
- Las Vegas casino resorts
Compete for convention and visitor business across the western United States, including high-end guests 1.
- California tribal casinos
Their continued growth is cited as a source of competition for Atlantis 12.
- Colorado casino operators and online sports betting
Competition in Black Hawk comes from other casinos and online wagering that could draw customers 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Monarch butterflies get tiny trackers to help scientists follow their mysterious migrationPhys.org · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Radio-tagged Monarch butterfliesHacker News · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- As monarch butterflies migrate for the fall, meet the Chicago woman trying to protect themThe Guardian — Environment · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Wildlife tracking to fill gaps in monarch migration researchPhys.org · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
- King Oyo, once world's youngest monarch, to be buried in western UgandaThe Hindu — International · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- World's youngest reigning traditional monarch dies aged 34BBC World News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Bringing PyTorch Monarch to AMD GPUsHacker News · 25 Jul 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
- Current report21 Jul 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report22 Apr 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement13 Apr 2026
- Annual report24 Feb 2026
- Current report04 Feb 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. · 21 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.