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olivLaw · US equity research

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD

Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

21.24USD−1.07% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Acadia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that markets NUPLAZID for hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis and DAYBUE for Rett syndrome, both the first and only drugs approved for these conditions. Product sales reached 576.0 million USD in the first half of 2026, and investors now watch the Phase 2 readout of remlifanserin in Alzheimer's disease psychosis.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) stock was 21.24 USD (−1.07% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.7 bn USD, P/E 10.1 on diluted EPS of 2.10 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.86, 52-week range 18.62–30.57 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 342.3 m USD (+22.8% YoY), net income of 53.5 m USD (−25.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.31 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.7 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.1
Diluted EPS TTM 2.10 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
9.88%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.86
Volatility (1y) 39%
52-week range
18.6230.57

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
52.1
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
18.71 – 21.45
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 13.6%
SMA 50 / 200
23.03 / 23.57
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.37 / -0.76
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+7.6%−5.9%+13.5 pp—
3 months−25.3%−4.6%−20.7 pp—
6 months−5.9%+0.2%−6.1 pp—
Year to date−20.5%+7.4%−27.9 pp—
1 year−4.9%+8.2%−13.1 pp+13.7%
3 years−11.4%+68.4%−79.9 pp+15.7%
5 years+6.1%+56.5%−50.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−39.1%
25 Aug 2026 → 13 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−57.9%
17 Jul 2023 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+1.2%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
342.3 m USD
+22.8% YoY
Net income
53.5 m USD
−25.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.31
−26.2% YoY
net / operating
15.6% / 21.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue259.6 m244.3 m264.6 m278.6 m284.0 m268.1 m308.0 m342.3 m
Cost of revenue21.8 m20.4 m20.7 m21.6 m26.2 m24.8 m28.3 m35.1 m
Research & development100.7 m78.3 m78.0 m87.8 m84.8 m76.9 m81.6 m76.3 m
SG&A130.1 m126.4 m133.5 m133.4 m155.6 m171.0 m160.3 m159.2 m
Operating income153.5 m19.3 m32.4 m35.8 m17.4 m-4.6 m37.8 m71.7 m
Pre-tax income161.1 m27.8 m40.2 m44.6 m26.3 m4.0 m46.5 m80.4 m
Income tax17.3 m8.8 m13.5 m-27.2 m-247.2 m344.0 k15.0 m26.9 m
Net income143.7 m19.0 m26.7 m71.8 m273.6 m3.6 m31.5 m53.5 m
Diluted EPS0.86 ≈0.110.160.421.59 ≈0.020.180.31
Operating cash flow40.4 m20.3 m64.0 m ≈74.3 m ≈-48.7 m34.0 m100.8 m ≈11.5 m ≈
Capex453.0 k0297.0 k ≈388.0 k ≈4.0 m5.2 m5.1 m ≈1.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 10 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 9.6, median 12.8, max 90.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue223.8 m339.1 m441.8 m484.1 m517.2 m726.4 m957.8 m1.1 bn
Revenue YoY+79.2%+51.5%+30.3%+9.6%+6.8%+40.4%+31.8%+11.9%
Net income-245.2 m-235.3 m-281.6 m-167.9 m-216.0 m-61.3 m226.5 m391.0 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+72.7%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-1.79-1.05-1.34-0.371.362.30
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+69.1%
net %-109.6%-69.4%-63.7%-34.7%-41.8%-8.4%23.6%36.5%
Free cash flow-169.6 m-152.3 m-143.8 m-126.8 m-114.0 m16.7 m157.2 m105.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
177.7 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
1.2 bn USD
Total assets
1.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
3.83x
ROE
39.9%
ROA
28.4%
FCF margin
9.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
726.4 m
2024
957.8 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
41.6 m
2024
81.8 m
2025
89.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
684.8 m
2024
876.0 m ≈
2025
982.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
351.6 m
2024
303.2 m
2025
328.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
406.6 m
2024
488.4 m
2025
548.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-73.4 m
2024
230.8 m
2025
104.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-51.0 m
2024
258.1 m
2025
138.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
10.3 m
2024
31.6 m
2025
-252.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-61.3 m
2024
226.5 m
2025
391.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.37
2024
1.36
2025
2.30

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
163.8 m
2024
166.4 m
2025
169.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
188.7 m
2024
319.6 m
2025
177.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
98.3 m
2024
98.7 m
2025
121.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
40.4 m
2024
91.7 m
2025
111.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
616.1 m
2024
938.3 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
4.6 m
2024
4.2 m
2025
7.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
65.5 m
2024
119.8 m
2025
108.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
749.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
17.5 m
2024
16.2 m
2025
10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
254.3 m
2024
394.9 m
2025
277.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
317.2 m
2024
455.0 m
2025
336.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
431.8 m †
2024
732.8 m †
2025
1.2 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
16.7 m
2024
157.7 m
2025
109.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
50.0 k
2024
523.0 k
2025
4.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
16.7 m ≈
2024
157.2 m ≈
2025
105.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
32.0 m
2024
-30.5 m
2025
-302.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
25.1 m
2024
6.8 m
2025
49.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
27.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
19.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-54.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
72.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
69.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-33.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
90.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
10.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
30.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
31.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
23.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
3.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
97.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
15.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
82.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
22.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
42 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
339 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
61 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
321 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
10.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
9.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
44.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

21.24 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
31.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
30.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Nov 2026
verified 1894derived 126

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
29.20
USD per share
Mid
44.80
USD per share
High
89.02
USD per share
Price: 21.24 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 110.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 52.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 29.20 – 89.02 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E29.20 – 89.02 (Mid 44.80)
    15 companies used · median multiple 21.3x · quartiles 13.9x – 42.4x
    ABBV, ABT, ALNY, BMY, IRWD, JNJ, LLY, OGN, OMER, PFE, REGN, RPRX, UTHR, VRTX, ZTS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality30.1%81 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Quality22.6%0 (on a fixed band)14%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth27.5%100 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.8x100 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation10.1x83 (vs peers)24%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation2.2%28 (on a fixed band)19%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation59/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (ACAD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.9%; net margin 30.1%; ROE 31.4%.

The estimated value range is 29.20–89.02 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.80 USD, the price of 21.24 USD leaves a potential of 110.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 52.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 30.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 27.5%
  • Current ratio: 3.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 10.1x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 22.6%
  • FCF yield: 2.2%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
10.1x
vertical median 38.1x
below median (−73.4%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 25.2x
P/S
3.1x
vertical median 5.9x
below median (−48.6%)
P/B
2.6x
vertical median 3.9x
below median (−31.4%)
ROE
31.4%
vertical median -4.8%
above median
Net margin
30.1%
vertical median 3.6%
above median (+727.5%)
EBIT margin
10.2%
vertical median -2.2%
above median
Revenue YoY
11.9%
vertical median 5.1%
above median (+134.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LLYEli Lilly And Company1,283.9 bn44.386.1%31.9%+44.7%+27% / +131%
JNJJohnson & Johnson655.6 bn41.320.0%16.2%+6.0%+32% / +76%
ONCBeone Medicines Ltd.575.0 bn640.918.4%13.9%+40.2%+14% / +107%
ABBVAbbVie Inc.509.5 bn49.6—15.7%+8.6%+27% / +102%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.362.2 bn151.25.1%3.6%+1.3%+40% / +43%
ABTAbbott Laboratories196.7 bn42.39.2%9.7%+5.7%−12% / +9%
PFEPfizer Inc170.3 bn42.64.4%6.3%−1.6%+16% / −2%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc137.5 bn34.920.8%30.7%+8.9%+25% / +53%
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company129.0 bn14.044.1%18.5%−0.2%+28% / +28%
TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited48.8 bn97.36.6%3.6%+4.3%+55% / +325%
ZTSZoetis Inc.33.4 bn13.857.6%26.4%+2.3%−36% / −54%
ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd.26.5 bn—-6.2%-3,535.0%−71.6%+76% / +283%
RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc26.2 bn47.76.9%25.7%+5.1%+69% / +150%
UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation24.1 bn21.319.1%38.6%+10.6%+16% / +136%
INSMInsmed Inc23.9 bn—-72.5%-39.9%+66.7%−48% / +335%
VTRSViatris Inc.21.7 bn—-24.3%-23.9%−3.0%+77% / +107%
ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.21.0 bn7.9126.6%52.8%+65.2%−65% / −7%
BBIOBridgeBio Pharma, Inc.14.5 bn——-61.3%+126.3%+3% / +159%
MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.9.3 bn—-24.8%-10.9%+432.1%−33% / +97%
ACADAcadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.3.7 bn10.131.4%30.1%+11.9%−5% / −11%
OGNOrganon & Co.3.6 bn18.020.3%3.5%−2.9%+79% / +22%
ZLABZai Lab Limited2.0 bn—-30.0%-44.9%+15.3%+11% / −17%
SLSSELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc.1.6 bn—-39.6%—−100.0%+386% / +658%
OMEROmeros Corp1.2 bn9.9——−34.0%+76% / +679%
IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals Inc667.2 m4.5—37.4%−15.7%+15% / −59%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ACAD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
13.86
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
24.39
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
36.59
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
3 years
16.44
Total return -23% · Per year -8%
32.26
Total return 52% · Per year 15%
52.69
Total return 148% · Per year 35%
5 years
19.50
Total return -8% · Per year -2%
42.66
Total return 101% · Per year 15%
75.87
Total return 257% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 8.06
  • Net margin± 5.65
  • Annual revenue growth± 4.21
  • Annual dilution± 0.47

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Acadia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that markets NUPLAZID for hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis and DAYBUE for Rett syndrome, both the first and only drugs approved for these conditions. Product sales reached 576.0 million USD in the first half of 2026, and investors now watch the Phase 2 readout of remlifanserin in Alzheimer's disease psychosis. 1 2 3

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has two approved products for which no other FDA-approved treatments exist. Revenue grew in 2026 and guidance was raised.
  • Being the first and only approved therapy offers commercial protection and an advantage in building adoption.
  • The pipeline includes late-stage candidates, notably remlifanserin, supported by the Fast Track designation granted by the FDA.

Weaknesses

  • The company has long-running operating losses linked to heavy research and development spending.
  • Sales depend heavily on two products, so any safety or reimbursement problem would have a major impact.

Opportunities

  • A favorable RADIANT readout could open a large market in Alzheimer's disease psychosis.
  • EU approval and expansion into Japan could enlarge the patient base for DAYBUE.
  • A larger sales force and direct-to-consumer campaigns could accelerate NUPLAZID adoption.

Threats

  • Payor pressure and government price negotiation could reduce revenue per unit.
  • The boxed warning on NUPLAZID and public attention to patient deaths could discourage prescribing.
  • Clinical failures or approval delays could limit the value of the pipeline.

Risks

  • Dependence on two productshigh

    Revenue depends almost entirely on NUPLAZID and DAYBUE, so a slowdown in adoption would affect financial results.

  • NUPLAZID safety perceptionhigh

    The boxed warning and public attention to patient deaths could limit prescribing, even if the perceptions are unfounded.

  • Reimbursement and pricingmedium

    If coverage is not provided or out-of-pocket costs are too high, product use could decline.

  • Clinical trial failuremedium

    Remlifanserin topline results are expected in the autumn of 2026, and a failure could significantly reduce the pipeline's potential.

  • EU approvallow

    If the European Commission does not grant authorization for DAYBU, international expansion could be delayed or limited.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The second-quarter growth in DAYBUE sales and the raised guidance point to strong commercial momentum.
  • If the RADIANT results are favorable, the company could access a large market in Alzheimer's disease psychosis.
  • Being the only approved therapy for two indications offers a durable advantage if adoption continues.

What would break the thesis

  • The company remains unprofitable on the basis of accumulated losses and still depends on sales of two products.
  • The boxed warning on NUPLAZID could limit growth if physicians remain cautious.
  • Earlier study failures show that pipeline outcomes are uncertain and could delay growth.

What to watch

  • Topline results of the RADIANT Phase 2 study of remlifanserinSeptember-October 2026
  • European Commission decision on DAYBU authorization2026
  • DAYBUE STIX sales trend and revised guidanceQ3 2026
  • NUPLAZID new-to-brand prescription pace after the sales force expansionQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

The strategy aims to grow NUPLAZID in the United States, drive new patient adoption of DAYBUE, expand trofinetide outside the U.S. (notably the EU and Japan) and develop early-stage candidates. The company also invests in four capabilities: precision medicine, data innovation including AI and machine learning, globalization and patient empowerment. 1

In the second quarter of 2026, GAAP total revenues were 308 million USD, and the company raised its 2026 total revenue guidance to 1.24-1.30 billion USD. DAYBUE guidance was raised to 480-510 million USD and NUPLAZID guidance was reaffirmed at 760-790 million USD. 3

Segments

NUPLAZID

NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) is a selective 5-HT2A inverse agonist and antagonist, approved by the FDA in April 2016 for hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis. Second-quarter 2026 net sales were 183 million USD, and the company expanded its sales force to increase new-to-brand prescriptions. 1 3

DAYBUE

DAYBUE (trofinetide) has been FDA-approved since March 2023 for Rett syndrome, and the DAYBUE STIX formulation launched in 2026. Sales were 125 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, up 30% year over year, and the CHMP issued a positive opinion for EU authorization under the name DAYBU. 2 3

Market context

The company estimates about 130,000 Parkinson's disease patients are treated annually with atypical antipsychotics in the U.S., of whom about 20% currently receive NUPLAZID. For Rett syndrome, it estimates a prevalent population of 6,000-9,000 people in the U.S. and 9,000-12,000 in the EU. 1

Because no approved competitors exist for these two indications, estimating market potential is difficult, and adoption by physicians, patients and payors will depend on safety profile, reimbursement and pricing. NUPLAZID's market is also shaped by the boxed warning in its label. 1

Trends

  • DAYBUE STIX adoptiontailwind

    The launch of DAYBUE STIX, a dye- and preservative-free powder, supported DAYBUE sales growth in the second quarter of 2026. If adoption continues, it could support further guidance increases. 1 3

  • Pricing and reimbursement pressureheadwind

    Payors are increasingly seeking to control costs, and the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program could affect NUPLAZID pricing after 2029. These measures could reduce revenue per unit. 1

  • European and Asian expansionmixed

    The CHMP positive opinion for DAYBU, if followed by European Commission approval, could open a new market for Rett syndrome. Reimbursement and pricing in the EU remain uncertain. 2 3

  • Expanded sales forcemixed

    The expanded NUPLAZID sales force showed traction in new prescriptions in 2026, but higher SG&A costs could weigh on operating margins if growth does not materialize. 3

Competitive position

The company states that no FDA-approved treatments exist for the same indications as NUPLAZID and DAYBUE, which places it in a distinctive position. However, patients may be treated with off-label antipsychotics, and most Alzheimer's disease psychosis patients receive off-label antipsychotics. 1

Over the medium term, competition could come from drugs treating psychosis linked to neurodegenerative diseases or from the company's own candidates such as remlifanserin, if approved. The analyzed sources do not identify competitors with a U.S. ticker. 1 2

  • Off-label antipsychotics

    Atypical antipsychotics prescribed off-label for Alzheimer's disease psychosis, which the source says are used for most patients. 1

  • Atypical antipsychotics for Parkinson's

    Atypical antipsychotics used in Parkinson's disease patients that compete indirectly with NUPLAZID in clinical practice. 1

  • Developers of Alzheimer's psychosis candidates

    Companies developing therapies for psychosis in Alzheimer's disease that could compete with remlifanserin in the future, not identified in the analyzed sources. 1

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 24 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 05 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw