olivLaw · US equity research
The Andersons, Inc. ANDE
Wholesale-Farm Product Raw Materials · SIC 5150 · Vertical: Wholesale — nondurable goods (SIC 51xx)
The Andersons is a North American agriculture and renewable fuels company active in grain merchandising, plant nutrients and ethanol. In the second quarter of 2026 its Renewables segment reported record results, while Agribusiness showed a modest improvement, which makes the company's profile increasingly tied to the biofuels sector.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE) stock was 55.35 USD (−11.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.9 bn USD, P/E 9.3 on diluted EPS of 5.93 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.45%, beta 0.48, 52-week range 48.48–80.87 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.8 bn USD (+5.8% YoY), net income of 46.4 m USD (+130.6% YoY), diluted EPS 1.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 24.1
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 59.54 – 69.24
- below the lower band · %B -0.43 · band width 15.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 66.64 / 69.27
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.66 / -1.07
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −17.3% | −1.1% | −16.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.6% | −0.5% | −20.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −18.9% | +4.4% | −23.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +4.1% | +12.3% | −8.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +19.3% | +13.5% | +5.7 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | +4.9% | +76.4% | −71.5 pp | −3.0% |
| 5 years | +47.9% | +63.7% | −15.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Gross profit | 213.1 m | 152.9 m | 158.4 m | 170.9 m | 231.5 m | 160.6 m | 223.7 m | 182.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 36.2 m | 34.3 m | 33.1 m | 32.6 m | 33.3 m | 34.1 m | 34.6 m | 36.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 67.3 m | 3.2 m | 24.8 m | 25.8 m | 87.6 m | 33.9 m | 67.3 m | 50.7 m |
| Income tax | 13.1 m | -2.1 m | 8.0 m | -228.0 k | 16.5 m | 4.6 m | 13.4 m | 6.8 m |
| Net income | 45.1 m | 284.0 k | 7.9 m | 20.1 m | 67.4 m | 33.2 m | 56.6 m | 46.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.31 ≈ | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.59 | 1.95 ≈ | 0.97 | 1.65 | 1.36 |
| Operating cash flow | 268.8 m | -350.0 m | 299.3 m ≈ | 233.9 m ≈ | -6.2 m | -393.7 m | 487.9 m ≈ | -124.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 56.0 m | 46.5 m | 48.8 m ≈ | 66.8 m ≈ | 70.9 m | 51.7 m | 75.6 m ≈ | 59.6 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 6.8 m | 6.7 m | 6.7 m ≈ | 6.5 m ≈ | 7.0 m | 6.8 m | 6.8 m ≈ | 6.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 2.3 m | — | — | 14.2 m ≈ | 0 | — | — | 14.5 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 9 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 7.0, median 16.7, max 116.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | ⚠ 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.1 bn | 12.6 bn | 17.3 bn | 14.8 bn | 11.3 bn | 11.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −17.4% | — | +0.8% | +56.4% | +37.4% | −14.9% | −23.7% | −2.2% |
| Net income | 41.5 m | 18.3 m | 7.7 m | 104.0 m | 131.1 m | 101.2 m | 114.0 m | 95.7 m |
| Net income YoY | −2.4% | — | −57.9% | +1,248.7% | +26.1% | −22.8% | +12.7% | −16.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.46 | 0.55 | 0.23 | 3.07 | 3.81 | 2.94 | 3.32 | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −2.7% | — | −58.2% | +1,234.8% | +24.1% | −22.8% | +12.9% | unavailable |
| net % | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Free cash flow | -178.1 m | 183.3 m | -151.6 m | -126.8 m | 178.8 m | 796.3 m | 182.3 m | -56.1 m |
The series breaks before 2019: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 98.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 809.4 m USD
- Net debt
- 711.2 m USD
- Equity
- 1.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.63x
- Current ratio
- 1.41x
- ROE
- 6.6%
- ROA
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- -0.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.1 bn | 12.6 bn | 17.3 bn | 14.8 bn | 11.3 bn | 11.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.7 bn | 12.0 bn | 16.6 bn | 14.0 bn | 10.6 bn | 10.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 366.2 m | 592.7 m | 684.2 m | 745.4 m | 693.9 m | 713.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 188.6 m | 178.9 m | 134.7 m | 125.1 m | 127.8 m | 133.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -27.1 m | 160.8 m | 194.6 m | 169.6 m | 200.8 m | 141.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -10.9 m | 29.2 m | 39.6 m | 37.0 m | 30.1 m | 22.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 7.7 m | 104.0 m | 131.1 m | 101.2 m | 114.0 m | 95.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.23 | 3.07 | 3.81 | 2.94 | 3.32 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 33.2 m | 33.9 m | 34.4 m | 34.4 m | 34.3 m | 34.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.79 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 29.1 m | 216.4 m | 115.3 m | 643.9 m | 561.8 m | 98.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 860.3 m | 786.0 m | 762.7 m | 693.4 m | 868.2 m | 939.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 131.5 m | 129.3 m | 129.3 m | 127.9 m | 127.9 m | 127.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 140.1 m | 117.1 m | 100.9 m | 85.6 m | 69.3 m | 63.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 403.7 m | 501.8 m | 272.6 m | 43.1 m | 166.6 m | 249.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 886.5 m | 600.5 m | 492.5 m | 563.0 m | 608.2 m | 560.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -74.4 m | -51.1 m | 287.1 m | 946.8 m | 331.5 m | 177.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 77.1 m | 75.8 m | 108.3 m | 150.4 m | 149.2 m | 233.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -151.6 m ≈ | -126.8 m ≈ | 178.8 m ≈ | 796.3 m ≈ | 182.3 m ≈ | -56.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -86.8 m | 487.2 m | -52.9 m | -153.9 m | -163.1 m | -195.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 136.3 m | -248.8 m | -334.7 m | -264.0 m | -250.4 m | -447.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 23.0 m | 23.7 m | 24.6 m | 25.4 m | 26.3 m | 26.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 12.7 m | 1.7 m | 2.3 m | 15.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 98.16 – 210.58 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E98.16 – 210.58 (Mid 138.73)18 companies used · median multiple 23.4x · quartiles 16.5x – 35.5xCAH, CAPL, CENT, CHEF, COR, DIT, DPZ, EDUC, GLP, HWKN, MCK, PFGC, RAVE, SEB, SYY, UNFI, USFD, WEYS
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate10.32 – 13.87 (Mid 11.83)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.8% | 72 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -144.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -14.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 52 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.3x | 85 (vs peers) | 21% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -15.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.5% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial52/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial36/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation47/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ANDERSONS, INC. (ANDE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.2%; net margin 1.8%; ROE 16.1%.
The estimated value range is 98.16–210.58 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 138.73 USD, the price of 55.35 USD leaves a potential of 150.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 60.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 1.8%
- P/E (TTM): 9.3x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -144.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -14.0%
- FCF yield: -15.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Wholesale — nondurable goods (SIC 51xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCKMcKESSON CORPORATION | 123.5 bn | 27.5 | — | 1.1% | +12.4% | +21% / +127% |
| CORCencora, Inc. | 67.6 bn | 26.3 | 104.3% | 0.8% | +9.3% | −4% / +74% |
| CAHCardinal Health, Inc. | 60.9 bn | 36.2 | — | 0.7% | +14.2% | +23% / +145% |
| SYYSysco Corporation | 37.9 bn | 20.5 | 59.1% | 2.1% | +3.9% | +1% / +7% |
| USFDUs Foods Holding Corp. | 23.8 bn | 33.8 | 16.4% | 1.8% | +4.1% | +40% / +151% |
| PFGCPerformance Food Group Company | 17.3 bn | 43.7 | 8.2% | 0.6% | +7.2% | +13% / +68% |
| DPZDomino’s Pizza, Inc. | 11.2 bn | 19.3 | — | 11.9% | +5.0% | −19% / −13% |
| CHEFChefs’ Warehouse, Inc. | 4.6 bn | 46.5 | 16.2% | 2.3% | +9.4% | +74% / +297% |
| ASHAshland Inc. | 3.5 bn | 126.3 | 2.8% | 2.8% | −13.7% | +44% / −4% |
| SEBSeaboard Corporation | 3.3 bn | 5.9 | 10.7% | 5.3% | +7.1% | −26% / −2% |
| HWKNHawkins, Inc. | 3.2 bn | 37.9 | 16.0% | 7.5% | +11.2% | +20% / +154% |
| UNFIUnited Natural Foods, Inc. | 2.9 bn | 36.0 | 5.3% | 0.3% | −2.0% | +29% / +232% |
| VSTSVestis Corp | 2.0 bn | — | -0.6% | -0.2% | −2.5% | +128% / −19% |
| WKCWorld Kinect Corporation | 1.9 bn | — | -11.5% | -0.4% | −12.5% | +64% / +81% |
| ANDEAndersons, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 9.3 | 16.1% | 1.8% | −2.2% | +19% / +5% |
| GLPGlobal Partners LP | 1.5 bn | 7.6 | — | 0.9% | +8.1% | −1% / +19% |
| UVVUniversal Corporation | 990.8 m | — | -0.2% | -0.1% | −1.3% | −25% / −29% |
| CAPLCrossamerica Partners LP | 773.8 m | 16.1 | — | 1.2% | −10.6% | −1% / −15% |
| WEYSWeyco Group, Inc. | 616.9 m | 17.8 | 13.8% | 12.4% | −4.9% | +116% / +119% |
| MGPIMgp Ingredients, Inc. | 364.2 m | — | -34.5% | -51.4% | −23.8% | −25% / −80% |
| NUSNu Skin Enterprises, Inc. | 242.9 m | — | -32.5% | -15.7% | −14.3% | −50% / −71% |
| HFFGHf Foods Group Inc. | 80.3 m | — | -15.5% | -2.8% | +2.2% | −41% / −69% |
| BANLCbl International Limited | 80.0 m | — | -14.0% | -0.6% | −9.1% | −48% / −86% |
| MMLPMartin Midstream Partners L.P. | 77.1 m | — | — | -1.4% | +1.2% | −25% / −24% |
| DITAmcon Distributing Co | 59.4 m | 33.1 | 1.6% | 0.1% | +3.9% | −19% / −48% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ANDE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 30.17 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 53.60 Total return -2% · Per year -2% | 81.11 Total return 48% · Per year 48% |
| 3 years | 23.95 Total return -54% · Per year -23% | 48.37 Total return -9% · Per year -3% | 81.11 Total return 52% · Per year 15% |
| 5 years | 19.02 Total return -61% · Per year -17% | 43.66 Total return -15% · Per year -3% | 81.11 Total return 55% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 12.09
- Net margin± 8.47
- Annual revenue growth± 7.65
- Annual dilution± 0.71
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
The Andersons is a North American agriculture and renewable fuels company active in grain merchandising, plant nutrients and ethanol. In the second quarter of 2026 its Renewables segment reported record results, while Agribusiness showed a modest improvement, which makes the company's profile increasingly tied to the biofuels sector 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad footprint across North American agricultural and renewable fuel supply chains, with integrated grain elevators and ethanol plants 1.
- The Renewables segment reported record second-quarter results in 2026, reflecting operating efficiency and production volumes 3.
- Management describes the balance sheet as well below its leverage target, which gives flexibility for investment 3.
Weaknesses
- Agribusiness results are sensitive to grain price volatility and difficult market conditions, which compressed margins in 2025 1.
- The company relies on a small number of suppliers for some inputs, especially fertilizer, which can limit bargaining power 1.
- Part of the tax credit income depends on technical criteria and evolving legislation, which reduces the predictability of results 13.
Opportunities
- Expansion of ethanol plant capacity and efficiency projects could strengthen the Renewables segment 3.
- Growing adoption of low-carbon fuels could create new revenue opportunities for plants that reduce their carbon intensity 13.
- Port of Houston soybean meal export capabilities could open new trading channels if completed on schedule 3.
Threats
- Changes in government policy on biofuels, tax credits and international trade could adversely affect the company's revenues 1.
- Trade disputes and tariffs can disrupt grain flows and create price volatility 1.
- Adverse weather in production regions can reduce volumes and results of the elevation business 2.
Risks
- Volatility of commodity and energy priceshigh
Corn, grain and natural gas prices can fluctuate sharply, which could reduce ethanol plant margins and merchandising results 1.
- Reliance on 45Z tax creditshigh
If plants do not meet emissions or wage criteria, the value of the tax credits could fall significantly, affecting results 13.
- Trade policy and tariffsmedium
Changes in trade policy can create uncertainty and alter grain and fertilizer prices in export markets 1.
- Environmental and operational risksmedium
Handling of hazardous substances and grain storage operations can create environmental liabilities or incidents, such as the grain terminal incident in Texas 12.
- Margin and liquidity demands on derivativeslow
Futures and option contracts can require large margin deposits during volatile periods, which could strain liquidity 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the record Renewables results hold and the 45Z credits are realized in full, the company could continue to improve its profitability 3.
- A recovery of Agribusiness margins, supported by market volatility and fertilizer demand, could add a further source of growth 23.
- A balance sheet that management describes as solid could leave room for growth investments if market conditions remain favorable 3.
What would break the thesis
- If the 45Z credits are reduced or eliminated through legislative change, a significant part of recent profitability could disappear 13.
- Oversupplied markets and weak demand could keep compressing Agribusiness margins, as seen in 2025 1.
- Trade tensions and adverse weather could reduce volumes and add pressure on results 12.
What to watch
- Development of 45Z credits and how they are reflected in quarterly resultsQ3 2026
- Agribusiness results, especially fertilizer margins and grain merchandising during the harvest seasonQ3 2026
- Guidance on the full-year 2026 adjusted effective tax rateQ3 2026
- Completion of the Clymers debottlenecking project and start-up of Port of Houston soybean meal exports2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
The company, founded in Maumee, Ohio, in 1947, operates through two reportable segments: Agribusiness and Renewables 1. The Agribusiness segment merchandises and manages logistics for a broad range of commodities, chiefly corn, wheat and soybeans, and also manufactures, distributes and retails plant nutrients, while operating grain elevators across the United States and Canada 1. The Renewables segment produces, purchases and sells ethanol and co-products through four ethanol plants in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio 1.
Revenues are heavily influenced by agricultural commodity prices, since changes in selling prices generally move with purchase prices, so gross profit is more relevant than revenue for assessing performance 12. Grain elevation activity is seasonal, peaking around the harvest of wheat, corn and soybeans 1.
Market context
The company operates in markets for grain, fertilizer and ethanol, where prices are set by worldwide supply and demand and by regulated commodity exchanges 1. The company noted that above-average corn acreage could support nitrogen fertilizer demand, and that demand for ethanol and biofuels remains strong as global blend rates rise 23.
The biofuels market is shaped by government policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard and the new Renewable Volume Obligations, which set the volumes of renewable fuel to be blended 13. If these policies change, margins and revenues of the Renewables segment could be affected.
Trends
- 45Z clean fuel tax creditsmixed
The 45Z credit provides a per-gallon tax benefit for domestically produced fuels and its extension through 2029 could support the margins of the company's ethanol plants 1. Realizing these credits in practice depends on meeting emissions and wage criteria, and the transfer market is still developing 1.
- Foreign demand for ethanol and biofuelstailwind
Ethanol export demand and renewable feedstock demand supported Renewables results in 2026, and the company expects continued demand if global blend rates keep rising 23.
- Volatility in agricultural pricesmixed
Oversupplied markets and low grain prices pressured Agribusiness margins in 2025, while volatility can create merchandising opportunities but also margin risk 12.
- Energy and raw material costsheadwind
Higher natural gas and corn prices, along with wider corn basis, reduced ethanol plant results in 2025, and these cost pressures remain a potential headwind 13.
Competitive position
In grain merchandising and farm inputs the company competes with other public and private grain brokers, farm retailers, elevator operators and farmer-owned cooperatives 1. Competition is based mainly on price, service and reliability, and some competitors are also customers of the company 1.
In biofuels the company operates in a sector where large ethanol producers and international grain traders play an important role, and its advantage rests on operating efficiency and integrated logistics 13.
- Bunge GlobalBG
Large grain and oilseed merchandiser; named in the sources only as a general category of large national and international grain companies, not individually.
- Farmer-owned cooperatives
Cooperatives that sell commodities and nutrient inputs and compete on price and service, named in the sources without a specific listed entity.
- Private grain brokers
Private grain brokers and elevator operators that compete in local and regional grain purchasing and sales.
- Farm retailers
Farm retailers that compete in crop nutrients and agricultural inputs, and that can also be customers of the company.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- A Record Renewables Quarter Powers The Andersons (ANDE) HigherYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report03 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Mar 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The Andersons, Inc. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The Andersons, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Andersons, Inc. · 03 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.