olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Biodesix, Inc. BDSX

Services-Medical Laboratories · SIC 8071 · Vertical: Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071)

19.84USD−7.68% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Biodesix is a diagnostics company offering blood-based tests for lung disease, mainly assessing lung nodules and guiding lung cancer treatment, supplemented by development services for biopharmaceutical clients. It matters now because test volumes and reimbursement coverage are growing fast, yet the company still reports losses and its 2026 guidance points to revenue of 108-114 million USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) stock was 19.84 USD (−7.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 220.0 m USD, beta 0.63, 52-week range 5.46–30.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 24.0 m USD (+10.4% YoY), net income of -8.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.75 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
220.0 m USD
shares as of 30 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -2.76 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-13.93%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.63
Volatility (1y) 100%
52-week range
5.4630.60

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
34.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
19.87 – 26.49
below the lower band · %B -0.00 · band width 28.6%
SMA 50 / 200
25.93 / 18.91
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.40 / -1.19
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−29.0%−5.9%−23.1 pp—
3 months−10.2%−4.6%−5.6 pp—
6 months+28.2%+0.2%+28.0 pp—
Year to date+191.8%+7.4%+184.3 pp—
1 year+130.7%+8.2%+122.5 pp−13.7%
3 years−31.6%+68.4%−100.0 pp+63.6%
5 years−86.6%+56.5%−143.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−49.3%
09 Mar 2026 → 29 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−97.3%
09 Nov 2021 → 14 May 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−33.1%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
24.0 m USD
+10.4% YoY
Net income
-8.0 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.75
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-33.4% / -25.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue20.4 m18.0 m20.0 m21.8 m28.8 m25.6 m26.9 m24.0 m
Research & development2.4 m2.9 m3.3 m3.0 m2.9 m3.3 m3.1 m3.0 m
SG&A20.2 m20.4 m22.4 m21.7 m23.0 m24.3 m24.3 m22.5 m
Operating income-6.6 m-9.1 m-9.7 m-7.1 m-2.0 m-6.2 m-5.4 m-6.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation1.4 m1.4 m1.4 m1.4 m1.4 m1.4 m1.4 m1.4 m ≈
Interest expense1.8 m1.7 m1.9 m2.1 m2.1 m2.0 m2.0 m2.0 m
Income tax000 ≈0 ≈000 ≈0 ≈
Net income-8.3 m-11.1 m-11.5 m-8.7 m-4.0 m-7.8 m-7.3 m-8.0 m
Diluted EPS-1.13 ≈-1.52-1.56-1.16-0.49 ≈-0.81-0.71-0.75
Operating cash flow-4.1 m-8.6 m-6.6 m ≈-8.9 m ≈778.0 k-10.2 m-1.6 m ≈-7.2 m ≈
Capex839.0 k74.0 k51.0 k ≈48.0 k ≈86.0 k81.0 k197.0 k ≈555.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue24.6 m45.6 m54.5 m38.2 m49.1 m71.3 m88.5 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+85.6%+19.6%−29.9%+28.5%+45.3%+24.1%
Net income-30.7 m-65.4 m-43.2 m-65.4 m-52.1 m-42.9 m-35.3 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-1.58-1.55-0.64-6.64-4.67
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-125.1%-143.7%-79.2%-171.3%-106.2%-60.2%-39.8%
Free cash flow-23.0 m-23.3 m-30.5 m-48.3 m-45.8 m-51.9 m-23.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
19.0 m USD
Financial debt
50.0 m USD
Net debt
31.0 m USD
Equity
-2.5 m USD
Total assets
87.5 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.86x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-38.2%
FCF margin
-26.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
49.1 m
2024
71.3 m
2025
88.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
10.0 m
2024
9.6 m
2025
12.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
67.4 m
2024
80.5 m
2025
87.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-41.3 m
2024
-34.5 m
2025
-27.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
3.3 m
2024
5.8 m
2025
5.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-38.0 m ≈
2024
-28.7 m ≈
2025
-22.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
9.5 m
2024
8.3 m
2025
7.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-52.1 m
2024
-42.9 m
2025
-35.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.64
2024
-6.64
2025
-4.67

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
82.1 m
2024
6.5 m
2025
7.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
26.3 m
2024
26.2 m
2025
19.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
7.7 m
2024
8.6 m
2025
9.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
39.7 m
2024
39.5 m
2025
32.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
27.9 m
2024
27.8 m
2025
24.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
15.0 m
2024
15.0 m
2025
15.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
7.9 m
2024
5.9 m
2025
3.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
99.1 m
2024
97.2 m
2025
87.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.9 m
2024
2.2 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
40.1 m
2024
40.0 m
2025
50.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
33.4 m
2024
14.3 m
2025
17.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
94.5 m
2024
76.4 m
2025
89.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
4.6 m †
2024
20.9 m †
2025
-2.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-22.9 m
2024
-48.6 m
2025
-23.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
22.9 m
2024
3.2 m
2025
259.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-45.8 m ≈
2024
-51.9 m ≈
2025
-23.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-23.1 m
2024
-3.4 m
2025
-403.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
29.1 m
2024
52.1 m
2025
16.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
24.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
32.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
-18.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-25.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-18.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-778.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-29.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
-53.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
-24.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
21.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
5.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
-2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-18.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
919.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-19.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
220.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
241.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
25.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
2.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

19.84 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 220.0 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
220.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
25.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-778.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-25.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
24.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Nov 2026
verified 938derived 83

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-53.3%13 (vs peers)24%
Net margin · Quality-25.7%43 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth32.3%100 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-2.5x0 (on a fixed band)14%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.0x100 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-8.7%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BIODESIX, INC. (BDSX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 88.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 24.1%; net margin -25.7%; ROE -778.9%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 32.3%
  • Current ratio: 3.0x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -53.3%
  • Interest coverage: -2.5x
  • FCF yield: -8.7%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 29.8x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 17.2x
P/S
2.1x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−27.3%)
P/B
25.4x
vertical median 2.2x
above median (+1,047.4%)
ROE
-778.9%
vertical median -9.4%
below median
Net margin
-25.7%
vertical median -6.1%
below median
EBIT margin
-18.7%
vertical median -11.8%
below median
Revenue YoY
24.1%
vertical median 13.8%
above median (+74.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.5x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NTRANatera, Inc.52.7 bn—-10.6%-5.7%+35.9%+52% / +550%
LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.29.5 bn29.811.4%6.9%+7.2%+35% / +67%
DGXQuest Diagnostics Inc28.0 bn25.415.2%9.5%+11.8%+35% / +86%
GHGuardant Health, Inc.20.8 bn——-37.9%+32.9%+42% / +510%
CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc.7.5 bn76.517.2%9.2%+97.0%+2% / unavailable
RDNTRadNet, Inc.6.1 bn—-2.1%-0.9%+11.5%−6% / +135%
GRALGRAIL, Inc.5.4 bn—-17.3%-243.8%+17.2%+8% / unavailable
CDNACaredx, Inc.4.0 bn31.933.0%25.9%+13.8%+327% / +686%
FTREFortrea Holdings Inc.2.0 bn—-12.3%-2.6%+1.0%+61% / −31%
VCYTVeracyte, Inc.1.9 bn15.69.4%21.8%+16.0%−49% / −6%
PSNLPersonalis, Inc.1.7 bn—-62.1%-147.7%−17.7%+45% / +916%
BLLNBillionToOne, Inc.1.3 bn116.930.2%11.3%+100.0%−14% / unavailable
CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc.1.1 bn—-4.9%-6.1%+3.7%−14% / +71%
FLGTFulgent Genetics, Inc.521.3 m—-8.6%-27.5%+13.8%−37% / −32%
YDESYD Bio Limited508.3 m—-445.1%-1,392.6%+16.9%−38% / unavailable
BDSXBiodesix, Inc.220.0 m—-778.9%-25.7%+24.1%+131% / −32%
XGNExagen Inc.184.1 m—-113.8%-26.6%+19.7%−4% / +313%
SERASera Prognostics, Inc.60.9 m—-49.7%-34,866.7%+5.2%−38% / +7%
AMSAmerican Shared Hospital Services7.8 m—-7.5%-5.8%−0.9%−45% / −51%
MDXHMdxhealth SA7.8 m—-2,440.4%-31.1%+19.8%−96% / −95%
ACONAclarion, Inc.4.5 m—-74.1%-10,260.0%+65.6%−75% / −100%
ADVBAdvanced Biomed Inc.3.1 m0.484.8%5,231.3%unavailable−77% / unavailable
BGLCBioNexus Gene Lab Corp.2.5 m—-33.7%-82.4%−21.9%−81% / −91%
BNRBurning Rock Biotech Limited0—-10.1%-10.3%+9.2%−39% / +60%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BDSX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (05 Nov 2026).

    In brief

    Biodesix is a diagnostics company offering blood-based tests for lung disease, mainly assessing lung nodules and guiding lung cancer treatment, supplemented by development services for biopharmaceutical clients. It matters now because test volumes and reimbursement coverage are growing fast, yet the company still reports losses and its 2026 guidance points to revenue of 108-114 million USD 123.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a high gross margin and fast-growing test volume, which shows rising operating efficiency 13.
    • Its blood-based diagnostics are covered by Medicare, and the company reports published clinical data and ongoing studies 1.
    • Operating expense growth has been held well below revenue growth, which supports progress toward profitability 3.

    Weaknesses

    • The company keeps reporting net losses and carries a large accumulated deficit, which could limit its financing options 1.
    • Development services revenue fell in one quarter, showing dependence on project timing 3.
    • The company relies on third-party suppliers, including single-source ones, which exposes operations to supply disruption and price swings 1.

    Opportunities

    • Wider reimbursement coverage and growing clinical evidence could open opportunities to grow test volume 13.
    • A growing development services pipeline could support revenue in the second half of 2026 3.
    • If clinical studies confirm test performance, the company could see broader adoption by clinicians and payers 1.

    Threats

    • Pressure from payers and purchasing groups could reduce revenue per test 1.
    • Cheaper or better-received competing technologies could reduce the company's market share 1.
    • Regulatory changes or trade tariffs could affect operations and results, as the company warns 3.

    Risks

    • Continued losseshigh

      The company expects to keep incurring losses and cannot guarantee it will reach sustainable profitability 1.

    • Uncertain market acceptancehigh

      Commercial success depends on acceptance by payers, clinicians and patients, which may not persist if better alternatives appear 1.

    • Supplier dependencemedium

      Single-source suppliers could create supply problems and price swings that affect operations 1.

    • Managing growthmedium

      Rapid expansion of staff and testing capacity could disrupt operations if not managed effectively 1.

    • Data securitymedium

      Security breaches or unauthorised access to data could bring costs, lost revenue and reputational harm 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • Fast test volume growth, rising gross margins and the 2026 guidance could indicate a gradual move toward profitability if the trend holds 3.
    • Wider reimbursement coverage and growing clinical evidence could support test adoption in a large market if payers keep recognising the tests 13.
    • If development services recover from project timing, they could add a further source of growth for the company 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Continued net losses and a large accumulated deficit could pressure financing and push the company toward external capital 1.
    • Pressure from payers and purchasing groups could reduce revenue per test, especially if reimbursement weakens 1.
    • If cheaper or better-received competing technologies emerge, the company could lose market share, which would hurt growth 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against 2026 revenue guidance of 108-114 million USD2026
    • Development of test volume and revenue per testQ3 2026
    • Progress toward adjusted EBITDA profitabilitynext 10-Q
    • Results of the CLARIFY and other clinical studies2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (05 Nov 2026).

    The business

    Biodesix, Inc. presents itself as a diagnostic solutions company aiming to improve patient care through personalized diagnostics built on genomics, proteomics and radiomics combined with artificial intelligence 1. Revenue comes from two sources: Biodesix Lung Diagnostic Testing, which provides lung testing for providers using its five blood-based tests, and Biodesix Development Services, which provides testing and consulting to biopharmaceutical, life sciences and diagnostics companies 1. Total revenue for 2025 was estimated at 88.5 million USD, up 24% 1.

    The main revenue source is lung testing, which produced 79.2 million USD in 2025 from 62,600 tests delivered 1. The company said its gross margin rose to 81% in 2025 from 78% in 2024 1. The net loss narrowed to 35.3 million USD in 2025 from 42.9 million USD in 2024, and the accumulated deficit reached about 497.8 million USD at year-end 2025 1.

    For the second quarter of 2026 the company reports total revenue of 26.9 million USD, up 34%, and a gross margin of 82% 3. Full-year 2026 guidance points to revenue of 108-114 million USD, and the company says it continues to work toward adjusted EBITDA profitability 3.

    Segments

    Lung Diagnostic Testing

    This is the main growth driver, with 79.2 million USD of revenue in 2025 and test volume up 15% 1. In the second quarter of 2026 testing revenue reached 25.4 million USD and volume rose 38% to 20,900 tests 3. The Nodify Lung tests assess cancer risk in lung nodules, and the IQLung tests guide treatment after diagnosis 1.

    Development Services

    This segment generated 9.3 million USD in 2025, up 41% 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue fell to 1.5 million USD from 2.1 million USD a year earlier, which the company attributes to project completion timing 3. The company says its pipeline is strong 3.

    Market context

    The company estimates that the US lung cancer continuum of care represents over 10 million annual testing opportunities and a market greater than 27 billion USD per year 1. Its estimates also include roughly 5 to 6 million lung nodules a year in the US, which indicates the size of the nodule assessment segment 1.

    These are company estimates, and the real addressable market could differ. Volume and revenue depend on clinician adoption and payer coverage, so the accessible market may be smaller than the theoretical opportunity 1.

    Competitive position

    The reviewed sources do not explicitly name the company's competitors or give a direct market comparison. The company does emphasise that its advantage comes from clinical evidence, reimbursement, commercial execution and expense discipline, and its tests must compete with cheaper or better-received alternatives 13.

    The company says it combines several technologies and that it offers two blood-based nodule tests covered by Medicare and Medicaid, which could be a relative advantage 1. The risk remains that cheaper or better-received competing technologies could reduce its market share 1.

    • Other blood-based lung diagnostic tests

      The sources generally mention alternatives that could be preferred if cheaper or better received, without naming specific competitors.

    • Tissue biopsy and tissue-based molecular tests

      Tissue tests are mentioned as alternatives for identifying mutations, and the company says blood tests can complement rather than replace them.

    • Diagnostic laboratories and clinical research services

      The company notes the risk of losing biopharmaceutical clients to in-house testing or other parties, which points to competition in the development services segment.

    • Genomic and proteomic test providers

      The sources point to competing technologies that could become more cost-effective, without identifying the providers.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Biodesix, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Biodesix, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Biodesix, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.