olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

MDxHealth SA MDXH

Services-Medical Laboratories · SIC 8071 · Vertical: Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071)

0.16USD−1.01% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

MDxHealth is a Belgian-incorporated precision diagnostics company selling molecular tests for prostate cancer and recurrent urinary tract infections, mainly in the United States. It closed fiscal 2025 with revenue of 107.9 million USD but a net loss of 33.5 million USD, keeping the pace of growth and funding at the center of investor attention.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MDxHealth SA (MDXH) stock was 0.16 USD (−1.01% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.0 m USD, beta 1.13, 52-week range 0.16–4.72 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
8.0 m USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.67 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
-428.39%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.13
Volatility (1y) 155%
52-week range
0.164.72

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
22.5
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
-0.08 – 0.71
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.30 · band width 253.4%
SMA 50 / 200
0.52 / 1.48
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.11 / -0.11
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−73.8%−1.1%−72.7 pp—
3 months−64.0%−0.5%−63.5 pp—
6 months−92.3%+4.4%−96.6 pp—
Year to date−95.6%+12.3%−107.9 pp—
1 year−96.7%+13.5%−110.3 pp+7.7%
3 years−94.8%+76.4%−171.2 pp+74.2%
5 years−98.7%+63.7%−162.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−96.7%
05 Nov 2025 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−98.7%
08 Nov 2021 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−58.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue11.8 m18.5 m22.2 m37.1 m70.2 m90.0 m107.9 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+56.6%+20.5%+66.6%+89.4%+28.3%+19.8%
Net income-43.1 m-28.7 m-29.0 m-44.0 m-43.1 m-38.1 m-33.5 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.690.342.38-2.78-1.66-1.16-0.67
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+600.0%−216.8%unavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-365.7%-155.3%-130.4%-118.9%-61.4%-42.3%-31.1%
Free cash flow-22.4 m-20.8 m-23.4 m-36.9 m-24.2 m-19.7 m-3.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
29.0 m USD
Financial debt
76.2 m USD
Net debt
47.2 m USD
Equity
-12.1 m USD
Total assets
148.0 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.08x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-22.0%
FCF margin
-3.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
70.2 m
2024
90.0 m
2025
107.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
26.3 m
2024
34.9 m
2025
38.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
43.9 m
2024
55.1 m
2025
69.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Research & development
2023
6.4 m
2024
10.6 m
2025
10.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-27.3 m
2024
-24.7 m
2025
-14.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2023verified

EBITDA
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2023derived

Interest expense
2023
18.3 m
2024
15.3 m
2025
23.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-43.1 m
2024
-37.7 m
2025
-35.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.0 k
2024
382.0 k
2025
-1.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
-43.1 m
2024
-38.1 m
2025
-33.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.66
2024
-1.16
2025
-0.67

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
25.9 m
2024
32.9 m
2025
50.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
22.4 m
2024
46.8 m
2025
29.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Receivables
2023
11.1 m
2024
14.4 m
2025
14.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Inventories
2023
2.8 m
2024
3.9 m
2025
6.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
38.2 m
2024
66.9 m
2025
53.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
5.0 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
4.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
35.9 m
2024
35.9 m
2025
38.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
44.3 m
2024
40.6 m
2025
39.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
129.1 m
2024
157.3 m
2025
148.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
8.8 m
2024
8.0 m
2025
10.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
643.0 k
2024
324.0 k
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
35.6 m
2024
51.0 m
2025
76.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
19.5 m
2024
42.7 m
2025
49.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
121.9 m
2024
142.5 m
2025
160.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
7.2 m
2024
14.8 m
2025
-12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
27.3 m
2024
49.5 m
2025
51.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-21.5 m
2024
-18.5 m
2025
-2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.7 m
2024
1.2 m
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-24.2 m ≈
2024
-19.7 m ≈
2025
-3.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.9 m
2024
-1.6 m
2025
-18.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
32.3 m
2024
44.6 m
2025
3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
19.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
42.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
42.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
64.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-13.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
-31.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
-3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
-2,440.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
-22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
-14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
47.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
-0.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
-2.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
1.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
-3.3 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
49 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
51 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
87 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
12 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
8.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
55.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-428.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-41.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.16 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 8.0 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
8.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-2,440.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
-31.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
19.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Apr 2026
verified 210

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
8.76
USD per share
Mid
13.48
USD per share
High
27.97
USD per share
Price: 0.16 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 8,518.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 98.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.76 – 27.97 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)8.76 – 27.97 (Mid 13.48)
    WACC 5.4% · starting FCFF 16.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 87%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-31.1%30 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth42.8%100 (on a fixed band)25%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-0.6x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x23 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-41.7%0 (on a fixed band)25%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet9/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial30/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

MDXHEALTH SA (MDXH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 107.9 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 19.8%; net margin -31.1%; ROE -2,440.4%.

The estimated value range is 8.76–27.97 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 13.48 USD, the price of 0.16 USD leaves a potential of 8,518.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 98.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 42.8%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: -0.6x
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • FCF yield: -41.7%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 35.9x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 17.4x
P/S
0.1x
vertical median 3.1x
below median (−97.6%)
P/B
—
vertical median 3.0x
ROE
-2,440.4%
vertical median -9.1%
below median
Net margin
-31.1%
vertical median -7.1%
below median
EBIT margin
-13.4%
vertical median -11.8%
below median
Revenue YoY
19.8%
vertical median 13.8%
above median (+43.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.5x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NTRANatera, Inc.56.4 bn—-12.5%-7.1%+35.9%+64% / +599%
LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.29.9 bn30.211.4%6.9%+7.2%+37% / +70%
DGXQuest Diagnostics Inc28.1 bn25.515.2%9.5%+11.8%+35% / +86%
GHGuardant Health, Inc.22.6 bn——-38.3%+32.9%+55% / +570%
CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc.9.5 bn97.617.2%9.2%+97.0%+30% / unavailable
GRALGRAIL, Inc.6.4 bn—-16.1%-236.9%+17.2%+30% / unavailable
RDNTRadNet, Inc.6.3 bn—-2.1%-0.9%+11.5%−3% / +142%
CDNACaredx, Inc.4.5 bn35.933.0%25.9%+13.8%+380% / +784%
VCYTVeracyte, Inc.4.2 bn37.58.8%20.4%+16.0%+11% / +105%
FTREFortrea Holdings Inc.2.0 bn—-12.3%-2.6%+1.0%+64% / −29%
PSNLPersonalis, Inc.1.7 bn—-62.1%-147.7%−17.7%+47% / +932%
BLLNBillionToOne, Inc.1.3 bn118.430.2%11.3%+100.0%−13% / unavailable
CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc.1.1 bn—-4.2%-5.4%+3.7%−11% / +79%
FLGTFulgent Genetics, Inc.541.5 m—-8.0%-26.0%+13.8%−33% / −29%
YDESYD Bio Limited492.0 m—-445.1%-1,392.6%+16.9%−40% / unavailable
BDSXBiodesix, Inc.226.7 m—-540.0%-27.0%+24.1%+160% / −28%
XGNExagen Inc.206.2 m—-113.8%-26.6%+19.7%+8% / +363%
SERASera Prognostics, Inc.59.0 m—-49.7%-34,866.7%+5.2%−39% / +4%
AMSAmerican Shared Hospital Services8.2 m—-7.5%-5.8%−0.9%−43% / −48%
MDXHMdxhealth SA8.0 m—-2,440.4%-31.1%+19.8%−97% / −95%
ACONAclarion, Inc.5.0 m—-59.0%-10,978.5%+65.6%−72% / −100%
ADVBAdvanced Biomed Inc.3.5 m0.484.8%5,231.3%unavailable−75% / unavailable
BGLCBioNexus Gene Lab Corp.2.8 m—-33.7%-82.4%−21.9%−79% / −90%
BNRBurning Rock Biotech Limited0—-10.1%-10.3%+9.2%−41% / +55%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MDXH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (24 Jul 2026).

    In brief

    MDxHealth is a Belgian-incorporated precision diagnostics company selling molecular tests for prostate cancer and recurrent urinary tract infections, mainly in the United States. It closed fiscal 2025 with revenue of 107.9 million USD but a net loss of 33.5 million USD, keeping the pace of growth and funding at the center of investor attention.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A test portfolio recognized in clinical guidelines and reimbursed by Medicare, which supports adoption.
    • An established customer base among urologists with a large volume of test orders.
    • CAP-accredited and CLIA-certified laboratories plus an extensive library of biomarkers.

    Weaknesses

    • Repeated net losses and negative operating cash flow with no demonstrated profitability.
    • Financial dependence on a few tests, notably Confirm mdx and GPS mdx.
    • Debt secured by substantially all assets and covenant restrictions imposed by lenders.

    Opportunities

    • Expanding reimbursement to private payors could raise average revenue per test.
    • Launching Monitor mdx could extend the portfolio into active surveillance.
    • Integrating Exo mdx could generate sales synergies with existing customers.

    Threats

    • Funding pressure could lead to dilution through share issuance.
    • Changes in FDA rules on laboratory developed tests could raise costs.
    • Reduced reimbursement or exclusion from government payor programs could weigh on revenue.

    Risks

    • Going concernhigh

      The financial statements are prepared on a going concern basis, and management acknowledges substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern 1.

    • Need for additional fundinghigh

      The company may need additional capital, which may not be available on acceptable terms 1.

    • Credit facility restrictionsmedium

      The OrbiMed facility restricts debt, dividends and acquisitions, and failure to meet covenants could allow lenders to accelerate repayment 1.

    • Reimbursement dependencemedium

      Revenue depends on third-party payor payments, and delays or denials could affect collections 1.

    • Earnout obligationsmedium

      Payments to Exact Sciences and Bio-Techne could absorb available cash if revenue does not grow enough.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If revenue keeps growing and the loss keeps narrowing, the company could reach a more sustainable operating level, supported by clinical guidelines and reimbursement.
    • Integrating Exo mdx could add a screening test with high negative predictive value and widen the customer base.
    • Medicare coverage for more tests could reduce uncertainty over collections.

    What would break the thesis

    • Repeated losses and doubts about going concern could force significant shareholder dilution.
    • Debt and earnout obligations could limit flexibility and investment in research.
    • If reimbursement or regulation shifts unfavorably, demand for the tests could decline.

    What to watch

    • Revenue and net loss trajectory versus fiscal 2025Q1 2027
    • Earnout payments to Exact Sciences under the revised schedule2026
    • Exo mdx integration and migration of Select mdx customers2026
    • Compliance with OrbiMed facility covenants and minimum cash levelsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (24 Jul 2026).

    The business

    The business model relies on direct sales to urologists, whom the company calls its customers, and on reimbursement from Medicare and other payors. The tests are recognized in NCCN guidelines, which supports adoption. The company states that more than 7,000 urologists have ordered over 500,000 mdxhealth tests 1.

    The financial structure is strained: the company has an accumulated deficit of 403.0 million USD and long-term loans of 76.2 million USD, while earnout payments to Exact Sciences are staggered through 2028 1.

    Segments

    Prostate cancer tests

    Exo mdx, Confirm mdx and GPS mdx form the core portfolio. Exo mdx has a 91% negative predictive value for clinically significant prostate cancer, and Confirm mdx has 96% 1.

    Resolve mdx (urinary infections)

    Resolve mdx identifies pathogens and resistance genes in recurrent UTIs, with results within 48 hours versus 5 to 7 days for standard urine cultures 1.

    Market context

    The addressable market is large: prostate cancer is the most diagnosed cancer in US men, with an estimated 313,780 diagnoses in 2025, and about 25 million PSA tests are performed each year 1. The company also estimates around 500,000 prostate biopsies annually, but the real market value depends on urologist adoption and reimbursement.

    The company estimates that roughly half or more of biopsies find no cancer, which creates demand for tests that could reduce invasive procedures 1.

    Trends

    • Exo mdx integrationmixed

      The Exosome Diagnostics acquisition added Exo mdx and a CLIA laboratory; if the migration of Select mdx customers proceeds without losses, the portfolio could support growth.

    • Reimbursement acceptancetailwind

      Tests are reimbursed by Medicare and increasingly by private payors, which could speed adoption if commercial coverage keeps expanding.

    • Financial pressureheadwind

      Accumulated losses, OrbiMed debt and staggered Exact Sciences payments could limit investment if revenue does not grow enough.

    • Clinical guidelinesmixed

      Inclusion of the tests in NCCN and AUA/SUO guidelines can support clinical recommendations, though guideline changes could affect demand.

    Competitive position

    The company operates in molecular diagnostics, a field its own risk disclosures describe as highly competitive with rapid technological change 1. The current standard, the blood PSA test, and biopsy remain the main alternatives for physicians.

    Direct competitors are not named in the source document provided, so market share comparisons cannot be drawn from this filing.

    • PSA blood test (current standard)

      The most used screening alternative, described by the company as non-specific for clinically significant cancer.

    • Prostate biopsy

      The confirmation procedure used after an elevated PSA; the company notes that some biopsies are negative or false negatives.

    • Urology genomic test providers

      The company mentions competition in molecular diagnostics without naming producers in the source.

    • Exact Sciences

      Seller of GPS mdx, with which the company has earnout obligations through 2028.

    News & filings

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.