olivLaw · US equity research
Natera, Inc. NTRA
Services-Medical Laboratories · SIC 8071 · Vertical: Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071)
Natera is a diagnostics company applying cell-free DNA technology to tests in oncology, women's health and organ health. Total revenues were $2,306.1 million in 2025, up from $1,696.9 million in 2024. In the second quarter of 2026, revenues reached $752.8 million, an increase of 37.7%.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Natera, Inc. (NTRA) stock was 391.03 USD (+0.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 56.4 bn USD, beta 1.31, 52-week range 182.65–436.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 752.8 m USD (+37.7% YoY), net income of -67.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.47 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 377.26 – 427.83
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.27 · band width 12.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 380.30 / 268.40
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.40 / 8.67
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.1% | −1.1% | −7.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +42.4% | −0.5% | +42.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +81.8% | +4.4% | +77.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +70.7% | +12.3% | +58.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +99.0% | +13.5% | +85.5 pp | −3.1% |
| 3 years | +814.9% | +76.4% | +738.5 pp | +62.1% |
| 5 years | +237.2% | +63.7% | +173.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 439.8 m | 476.1 m | 501.8 m | 546.6 m | 592.2 m | 665.5 m | 696.6 m | 752.8 m |
| Research & development | 96.9 m | 129.5 m | 129.1 m | 146.4 m | 173.4 m | 175.2 m | 210.7 m | 228.1 m |
| SG&A | 214.2 m | 234.9 m | 266.9 m | 310.5 m | 308.5 m | 291.3 m | 327.9 m | 327.2 m |
| Operating income | -39.3 m | -64.7 m | -79.2 m | -110.4 m | -97.6 m | -22.8 m | -93.5 m | -75.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.2 m ≈ | 7.8 m | 9.2 m | 9.9 m ≈ | 10.3 m ≈ | 12.4 m | 14.5 m | 15.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 3.1 m | 1.3 m | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 991.0 k | 892.0 k | 890.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | -30.9 m | -55.1 m | -66.8 m | -100.7 m | -87.3 m | -13.3 m | -84.8 m | -67.2 m |
| Income tax | 730.0 k | -1.4 m | 173.0 k | 275.0 k | 207.0 k | -60.6 m | 283.0 k | -261.0 k |
| Net income | -31.6 m | -53.8 m | -66.9 m | -100.9 m | -87.5 m | 47.3 m | -85.1 m | -67.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.26 | -0.41 ≈ | -0.50 | -0.74 | -0.64 | 0.34 ≈ | -0.60 | -0.47 |
| Operating cash flow | 51.8 m ≈ | 52.9 m | 44.5 m | 37.6 m ≈ | 59.4 m ≈ | 73.9 m | 40.2 m | 54.8 m ≈ |
| Capex | 16.3 m ≈ | 18.1 m | 21.8 m | 25.9 m ≈ | 22.4 m ≈ | 36.1 m | 22.1 m | 63.4 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 257.7 m | 302.3 m | 391.0 m | 625.5 m | 820.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +22.1% | +17.3% | +29.3% | +60.0% | +31.1% | +32.0% | +56.7% | +35.9% |
| Net income | -128.2 m | -124.8 m | -229.7 m | -471.7 m | -547.8 m | -434.8 m | -190.4 m | -208.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -2.22 | -1.79 | -2.84 | -5.21 | -5.57 | -3.78 | -1.53 | -1.52 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -49.7% | -41.3% | -58.8% | -75.4% | -66.8% | -40.2% | -11.2% | -9.0% |
| Free cash flow | -74.5 m | -68.4 m | -202.1 m | -376.3 m | -479.2 m | -286.2 m | 69.2 m | 109.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 80.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -995.8 m USD
- Equity
- 1.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.05x
- Current ratio
- 3.39x
- ROE
- -14.3%
- ROA
- -10.3%
- FCF margin
- 4.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 391.0 m | 625.5 m | 820.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 100.0 m | 264.2 m | 316.4 m | 320.7 m | 404.1 m | 624.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 303.6 m | 511.0 m | 588.6 m | 618.3 m | 841.3 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -216.3 m | -468.2 m | -541.0 m | -446.2 m | -222.3 m | -309.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.6 m | 11.3 m | 16.7 m | 24.1 m | 31.0 m | 41.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -207.7 m ≈ | -456.9 m ≈ | -524.3 m ≈ | -422.1 m ≈ | -191.3 m ≈ | -268.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 15.1 m | 8.3 m | 9.3 m | 12.6 m | 10.7 m | 4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -229.6 m | -471.1 m | -546.8 m | -434.5 m | -189.7 m | -268.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 98.0 k | 618.0 k | 978.0 k | 271.0 k | 695.0 k | -59.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -229.7 m | -471.7 m | -547.8 m | -434.8 m | -190.4 m | -208.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.84 | -5.21 | -5.57 | -3.78 | -1.53 | -1.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 81.0 m | 90.6 m | 98.4 m | 115.0 m | 124.7 m | 136.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 48.7 m | 84.4 m | 466.0 m | 642.1 m | 945.6 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 78.6 m | 122.1 m | 244.4 m | 278.3 m | 314.2 m | 296.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 20.0 m | 26.9 m | 35.4 m | 40.8 m | 44.7 m | 68.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 862.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 33.3 m | 65.5 m | 92.5 m | 111.2 m | 162.0 m | 241.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | — | — | 141.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | — | — | 10.9 m | 373.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 932.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.1 m | 27.2 m | 31.1 m | 15.0 m | 34.9 m | 33.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 50.1 m | 50.1 m | 80.4 m | 80.4 m | 80.4 m | 80.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 280.4 m | 281.7 m | 282.9 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 199.1 m | 219.0 m | 310.5 m | 307.3 m | 344.0 m | 441.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 445.9 m | 583.2 m | 688.7 m | 676.4 m | 465.3 m | 685.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 486.2 m † | 653.3 m † | 705.7 m † | 765.3 m † | 1.2 bn † | 1.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -182.5 m | -335.2 m | -431.5 m | -247.0 m | 135.7 m | 215.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 19.6 m | 41.0 m | 47.7 m | 39.2 m | 66.4 m | 106.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -202.1 m ≈ | -376.3 m ≈ | -479.2 m ≈ | -286.2 m ≈ | 69.2 m ≈ | 109.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -331.5 m | -205.2 m | 330.3 m | 168.5 m | 137.6 m | -132.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 500.8 m | 576.2 m | 482.6 m | 254.5 m | 30.2 m | 47.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 56.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.01 – 22.26 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)17.01 – 22.26 (Mid 19.06)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 87.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -42.8% | 25 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -7.1% | 52 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 41.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -75.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.1% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality35/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial2/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NATERA, INC. (NTRA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 35.9%; net margin -7.1%; ROE -12.5%.
The estimated value range is 17.01–22.26 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 19.06 USD, the price of 391.03 USD leaves a potential of -95.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1,951.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 41.1%
- Current ratio: 3.0x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -42.8%
- Interest coverage: -75.9x
- FCF yield: 0.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRANatera, Inc. | 56.4 bn | — | -12.5% | -7.1% | +35.9% | +99% / +815% |
| LHLabcorp Holdings Inc. | 29.9 bn | 30.2 | 11.4% | 6.9% | +7.2% | +37% / +70% |
| DGXQuest Diagnostics Inc | 28.1 bn | 25.5 | 15.2% | 9.5% | +11.8% | +35% / +86% |
| GHGuardant Health, Inc. | 22.6 bn | — | — | -38.3% | +32.9% | +55% / +570% |
| CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc. | 9.5 bn | 97.6 | 17.2% | 9.2% | +97.0% | +30% / unavailable |
| GRALGRAIL, Inc. | 6.4 bn | — | -16.1% | -236.9% | +17.2% | +30% / unavailable |
| RDNTRadNet, Inc. | 6.3 bn | — | -2.1% | -0.9% | +11.5% | −3% / +142% |
| CDNACaredx, Inc. | 4.5 bn | 35.9 | 33.0% | 25.9% | +13.8% | +380% / +784% |
| VCYTVeracyte, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 37.5 | 8.8% | 20.4% | +16.0% | +11% / +105% |
| FTREFortrea Holdings Inc. | 2.0 bn | — | -12.3% | -2.6% | +1.0% | +64% / −29% |
| PSNLPersonalis, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -62.1% | -147.7% | −17.7% | +47% / +932% |
| BLLNBillionToOne, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 118.4 | 30.2% | 11.3% | +100.0% | −13% / unavailable |
| CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -4.2% | -5.4% | +3.7% | −11% / +79% |
| FLGTFulgent Genetics, Inc. | 541.5 m | — | -8.0% | -26.0% | +13.8% | −33% / −29% |
| YDESYD Bio Limited | 492.0 m | — | -445.1% | -1,392.6% | +16.9% | −40% / unavailable |
| BDSXBiodesix, Inc. | 226.7 m | — | -540.0% | -27.0% | +24.1% | +160% / −28% |
| XGNExagen Inc. | 206.2 m | — | -113.8% | -26.6% | +19.7% | +8% / +363% |
| SERASera Prognostics, Inc. | 59.0 m | — | -49.7% | -34,866.7% | +5.2% | −39% / +4% |
| AMSAmerican Shared Hospital Services | 8.2 m | — | -7.5% | -5.8% | −0.9% | −43% / −48% |
| MDXHMdxhealth SA | 8.0 m | — | -2,440.4% | -31.1% | +19.8% | −96% / −95% |
| ACONAclarion, Inc. | 5.0 m | — | -59.0% | -10,978.5% | +65.6% | −72% / −100% |
| ADVBAdvanced Biomed Inc. | 3.5 m | 0.4 | 84.8% | 5,231.3% | unavailable | −75% / unavailable |
| BGLCBioNexus Gene Lab Corp. | 2.8 m | — | -33.7% | -82.4% | −21.9% | −79% / −90% |
| BNRBurning Rock Biotech Limited | 0 | — | -10.1% | -10.3% | +9.2% | −41% / +55% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NTRA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Natera is a diagnostics company applying cell-free DNA technology to tests in oncology, women's health and organ health 1. Total revenues were $2,306.1 million in 2025, up from $1,696.9 million in 2024 1. In the second quarter of 2026, revenues reached $752.8 million, an increase of 37.7% 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a large share of NIPT volume in the United States and has an extensive portfolio of clinical publications and patents 1.
- Strong oncology growth and rising total test volume show solid demand for the company's products 3.
- A direct U.S. sales force generates most revenue, giving the company control over distribution 2.
Weaknesses
- The company has reported net losses every year since its founding, and low reimbursement for some tests limits revenue 1.
- Operating costs have risen with research programs and clinical studies, adding pressure on profitability 3.
- Reliance on a small number of core products such as Panorama, Horizon and Signatera makes revenue sensitive to changes in them 1.
Opportunities
- If adoption of MRD testing keeps growing, the recurrence monitoring market could support long-term growth 1.
- Expansion into lymphoma and early colorectal cancer detection could open new revenue segments 1.
- Better reimbursement for microdeletions or broader coverage of new tests could raise revenue from existing products 12.
Threats
- Competitors with cheaper methods, or laboratory partners that choose to develop their own tests, could reduce market share 1.
- Intellectual property disputes with competitors could lead to damages or costly licence payments 1.
- Changes in payer policies or regulatory rules could restrict reimbursement access 1.
Risks
- Uncertain reimbursementhigh
Many payers do not cover microdeletions screening or pay low rates, which could affect Panorama revenue 1.
- Persistent net lossesmedium
The company has reported net losses every year since its founding and expects losses to continue in the near term 1.
- Dependence on Illuminamedium
The main sequencing supplier is also a direct competitor, which could create supply disruptions or disputes 1.
- Patent litigationmedium
Competitors have brought lawsuits against the company, and the cost of judgments or licences could affect financial results 1.
- Test sensitivity dependencelow
Circulating tumor DNA test performance depends on shedding enough tumor DNA into the blood, which may limit results for some patients 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If oncology growth is sustained, revenue and test volume could keep rising faster than operating costs 3.
- The raised 2026 revenue guidance and rising gross margin suggest a firmer financial base 3.
- The clinical publication base and regulatory approvals could support adoption by physicians and payers 13.
What would break the thesis
- If microdeletions reimbursement stays low, Panorama revenue could fall short of what the company expects 1.
- Persistent net losses and rising spending could limit the company's ability to reach profitability in the short term 13.
- Competition from lower-cost providers or from laboratory partners could reduce average prices per test 1.
What to watch
- Growth rate of oncology tests and total test volumeQ3 2026
- Delivery against the 2.85 to 2.91 billion USD revenue guidance2026
- Trend in net loss and operating expensesQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The largest revenue sources are the Panorama, Horizon and Signatera tests, sold through a direct U.S. sales force and laboratory partners 1. The Constellation model lets licensed laboratories run molecular workflows themselves and access algorithms via the cloud, with lower revenue and cost per test 1. Foresight Diagnostics was acquired in December 2025, extending the company into lymphoma 1.
In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported over one million tests processed for a second consecutive quarter and fast-growing oncology volumes 3. The 2026 revenue guidance was raised to between 2.85 and 2.91 billion USD 3.
Segments
Oncology
Signatera is the personalized circulating tumor DNA test used for MRD assessment and recurrence monitoring, and oncology test volume grew 57.2% in the second quarter of 2026 13. Latitude and Altera complete the oncology portfolio 1.
Women's health
Panorama is the non-invasive prenatal test widely used in the United States, and Horizon is the carrier screening test 1. The company also offers a fetal RhD NIPT and products such as Fetal Focus, Vistara and Anora 12.
Organ health
The company offers tests that detect rejection of heart, lung and kidney transplants based on donor-derived cell-free DNA, along with genetic testing for chronic kidney disease 1.
Market context
The total addressable market for recurrence monitoring of solid tumors in the United States is estimated at about 21 billion USD, and for blood cancers at about 3 billion USD 1. The company estimates the therapy selection opportunity at about 7 billion USD 1.
Volume growth depends on test adoption and payer reimbursement, and the company says reimbursement for microdeletions remains low 1. If reimbursement improves, demand could support revenue growth over the medium term 1.
Trends
- Oncology volume growthtailwind
Oncology tests rose strongly in the second quarter of 2026, and the company reported its largest sequential increase in MRD units to date 3.
- Regulatory approvalstailwind
Signatera achieved several significant regulatory approvals and Medicare coverage for Prospera expanded, which could support access to tests 3.
- Microdeletion reimbursementheadwind
Reimbursement for microdeletions screening remains low and many payers do not cover it, which limits Panorama revenue 1.
- Rising operating costsmixed
Operating expenses rose with headcount for new products and clinical trials, keeping the net loss elevated even as gross margin improved 3.
Competitive position
The prenatal and oncology diagnostics market includes competitors using different quantitative methods, as well as sequencing suppliers that also offer testing services 1. The company argues its method of measuring thousands of SNPs simultaneously gives superior accuracy 1.
Competition also comes from laboratory partners that may develop their own tests or offer competitors' tests, which has happened before 1. Intellectual property litigation with competitors is an ongoing part of the competitive setting 1.
- IlluminaILMN
Sequencing supplier that also owns Verinata, a major NIPT competitor, and has been involved in patent proceedings with Natera 1.
- Verinata Health
Illumina subsidiary and a main competitor in non-invasive prenatal testing using quantitative methods 1.
- Partner laboratories developing own tests
Distribution partners that may choose to develop or offer competing tests for pricing or other reasons 1.
- Genomic profiling test providers
Companies offering therapy selection and comprehensive genomic profiling, which the company identifies as a separate product category 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report (amendment)16 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement23 Apr 2026
- Current report01 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Natera, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Natera, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Natera, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.