olivLaw · US equity research
Intrepid Potash, Inc. IPI
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) · SIC 1400 · Vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)
Intrepid Potash is the only U.S. producer of potash and also sells Trio, a specialty fertilizer, along with water and oilfield products. Sales reached 298.3 million USD in fiscal 2025, and in 2026 the company raised its production guidance amid better prices and uneven demand.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) stock was 31.28 USD (+1.72% on the day), with market capitalisation 418.0 m USD, P/E 17.1 on diluted EPS of 1.83 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.60, 52-week range 23.94–48.84 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 51.0 m USD (+0.4% YoY), net income of 1.7 m USD (−53.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.13 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 30.38 – 33.13
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 8.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 34.95 / 36.54
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.93 / -1.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.3% | −1.1% | −5.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.3% | −0.5% | −6.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.0% | +4.4% | −21.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +12.8% | +12.3% | +0.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +21.8% | +13.5% | +8.3 pp | −13.2% |
| 3 years | +49.0% | +76.4% | −27.5 pp | +17.2% |
| 5 years | −30.2% | +63.7% | −93.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 94.5 m | 67.5 m | 50.8 m | 85.5 m | 98.7 m | 66.7 m | 51.0 m |
| Gross profit | 7.3 m | 13.3 m | 12.4 m | 10.0 m | 19.2 m | 17.7 m | 16.6 m | 10.0 m |
| SG&A | 7.5 m | 9.2 m | 8.9 m | 9.0 m | 9.6 m | 11.3 m | 10.0 m | 9.7 m |
| Operating income | -11.7 m | 3.7 m | 1.4 m | 484.0 k | 5.1 m | 6.2 m | 1.1 m | 209.0 k |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 10.5 m | 9.9 m | 8.9 m | 8.8 m | 12.9 m | 10.0 m | 9.3 m | 9.1 m |
| Interest expense | 112.0 k | 105.0 k | 66.0 k | 36.0 k | 25.0 k | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax income | -11.6 m | 3.5 m | 1.4 m | 1.2 m | 5.7 m | 6.9 m | 2.5 m | 1.7 m |
| Income tax | 195.4 m | 78.0 k | 35.0 k | 433.0 k | -2.0 k | 59.0 k | 57.0 k | -7.0 k |
| Net income | -207.0 m | 4.6 m | 3.3 m | 3.7 m | -429.0 k | 7.4 m | 15.6 m | 1.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | -16.04 ≈ | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.28 | -0.03 ≈ | 0.56 | 1.17 | 0.13 |
| Operating cash flow | 7.6 m | 10.9 m | 39.9 m ≈ | -4.0 m ≈ | 8.9 m | 23.2 m | 34.4 m ≈ | -4.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 6.1 m | 7.7 m | 3.4 m ≈ | 7.7 m ≈ | 11.4 m | 5.1 m | 8.5 m ≈ | 11.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 25 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 16.6, median 25.1, max 40.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | 279.1 m | 254.7 m | 298.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −8.7% | +17.1% |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -35.7 m | -212.8 m | 11.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.90 | 1.04 | -2.09 | 18.66 | 5.37 | -2.80 | -16.53 | 0.85 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +15.6% | −301.0% | unavailable | −71.2% | −152.1% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -12.8% | -83.6% | 3.7% |
| Free cash flow | 47.3 m | -14.5 m | 14.7 m | 59.3 m | 20.1 m | -21.8 m | 33.8 m | 25.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 83.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 491.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 632.2 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 5.24x
- ROE
- 2.3%
- ROA
- 1.8%
- FCF margin
- 8.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | 279.1 m | 254.7 m | 298.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 10.5 m | 55.8 m | 141.4 m | 36.8 m | 29.1 m | 54.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 25.5 m | 24.0 m | 31.8 m | 32.4 m | 33.0 m | 36.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -23.2 m | 32.3 m | 95.4 m | -44.0 m | -19.9 m | 10.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 36.1 m | 36.0 m | 35.0 m | 39.4 m | 37.7 m | 40.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 12.9 m ≈ | 68.2 m ≈ | 130.5 m ≈ | -4.6 m ≈ | 17.8 m ≈ | 51.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 4.3 m | 1.5 m | 101.0 k | 0 | 112.0 k | 232.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -27.1 m | 41.0 m | 96.5 m | -44.1 m | -18.5 m | 11.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 5.0 k | -208.9 m | 24.3 m | -8.4 m | 194.3 m | 544.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | — | — | — | -35.7 m | -212.8 m | 11.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.09 | 18.66 | 5.37 | -2.80 | -16.53 | 0.85 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 13.0 m | 13.4 m | 13.5 m | 12.8 m | 12.9 m | 13.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 19.5 m | 36.5 m | 18.5 m | 4.1 m | 41.3 m | 83.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 22.5 m | 35.4 m | 26.7 m | 22.1 m | 22.5 m | 32.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 88.7 m | 78.9 m | 114.8 m | 114.3 m | 113.0 m | 112.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 135.8 m | 156.9 m | 171.7 m | 152.0 m | 183.8 m | 292.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 355.5 m | 341.1 m | 375.6 m | 358.2 m | 344.3 m | 298.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 5.9 m | 5.6 m | 5.2 m | 4.9 m | 4.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 550.2 m | 766.9 m | 794.2 m | 768.6 m | 594.5 m | 632.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 10.0 m | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Mar 2022verified |
| Long-term debt | 14.9 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 04 May 2021verified |
| Current liabilities | 67.2 m | 73.4 m | 48.9 m | 46.6 m | 38.0 m | 55.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 138.9 m | 103.5 m | 79.1 m | 84.1 m | 120.1 m | 140.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 411.3 m † | 663.4 m † | 715.1 m † | 684.4 m † | 474.4 m † | 491.4 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 31.1 m | 79.1 m | 88.8 m | 43.2 m | 72.5 m | 55.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 16.4 m | 19.8 m | 68.7 m | 65.1 m | 38.7 m | 30.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 14.7 m ≈ | 59.3 m ≈ | 20.1 m ≈ | -21.8 m ≈ | 33.8 m ≈ | 25.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -15.2 m | -14.8 m | -79.2 m | -59.6 m | -29.5 m | -13.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -17.0 m | -47.3 m | -27.7 m | 1.9 m | -5.7 m | -276.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 22.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 418.0 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.07 – 60.52 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E34.07 – 60.52 (Mid 48.35)10 companies used · median multiple 26.5x · quartiles 18.6x – 33.1xCMP, HL, KNF, LEU, MLM, SND, SQM, TTAM, USLM, VMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.0% | 53 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 105.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -45.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 502.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 6.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.1x | 70 (vs peers) | 21% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.1% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
INTREPID POTASH, INC. (IPI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 298.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.1%; net margin 8.0%; ROE 4.8%.
The estimated value range is 34.07–60.52 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 48.35 USD, the price of 31.28 USD leaves a potential of 54.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 35.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 105.0%
- Interest coverage: 502.6x
- Current ratio: 6.0x
- P/E (TTM): 17.1x
- FCF yield: 6.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -45.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 39.6 bn | 14.7 | 16.8% | 31.9% | +8.6% | −11% / +20% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | 38.2 bn | 35.2 | 12.9% | 13.8% | +7.1% | +0% / +39% |
| SQMChemical & Mining Co Of Chile Inc | 15.1 bn | 24.0 | 14.3% | 15.1% | −39.4% | −11% / +15% |
| HLHecla Mining Company | 10.0 bn | 26.7 | 14.5% | 21.0% | +53.0% | −11% / +200% |
| IONRIoneer Ltd | 7.2 bn | — | -4.3% | — | unavailable | −44% / −35% |
| USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals Inc | 3.5 bn | 26.6 | 20.0% | 35.1% | +17.3% | +1% / +191% |
| KNFKnife River Corporation | 3.5 bn | 26.3 | 8.0% | 4.0% | +8.5% | −17% / +4% |
| TTAMTitan America SA | 2.6 bn | 14.2 | 20.8% | 11.1% | +1.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -14.1% | -100.0% | −15.6% | −50% / −10% |
| LEUCentrus Energy Corp | 1.3 bn | 42.2 | 8.1% | 10.2% | +1.5% | −64% / +85% |
| CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc. | 976.5 m | 54.2 | 7.2% | 1.4% | +11.3% | +22% / −4% |
| GAUGaliano Gold Inc. | 540.4 m | — | -12.7% | -6.5% | +93.6% | −14% / +220% |
| IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc. | 418.0 m | 17.1 | 4.8% | 8.0% | +17.1% | +22% / +49% |
| SNDSmart Sand, Inc. | 185.3 m | 16.9 | 4.4% | 2.7% | +6.0% | +48% / +124% |
| ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company | 183.9 m | — | -74.5% | -337.5% | +406.8% | −66% / −70% |
| ATLXAtlas Lithium Corporation | 52.1 m | — | -103.0% | -33,954.4% | −86.1% | −65% / −93% |
| LGOLargo Inc. | 27.7 m | — | -46.4% | -62.3% | −12.0% | −67% / −84% |
| TECKTeck Resources Limited | — | — | 5.5% | 13.0% | +18.7% | +50% / +71% |
| ELVRElevra Lithium Limited | — | — | -54.2% | -131.8% | +11.2% | −40% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IPI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 20.33 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 35.78 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 53.68 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 24.12 Total return -23% · Per year -8% | 47.33 Total return 51% · Per year 15% | 77.30 Total return 147% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 28.61 Total return -9% · Per year -2% | 62.59 Total return 100% · Per year 15% | 111.31 Total return 256% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 11.83
- Net margin± 8.28
- Annual revenue growth± 6.18
- Annual dilution± 0.70
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Intrepid Potash is the only U.S. producer of potash and also sells Trio, a specialty fertilizer, along with water and oilfield products. Sales reached 298.3 million USD in fiscal 2025, and in 2026 the company raised its production guidance amid better prices and uneven demand.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is the only U.S. potash producer and benefits from solar evaporation, which reduces labour and energy costs.
- Trio has a strong competitive position, supported by demand for chloride-free nutrients and lower production costs.
- The balance sheet is solid, with substantial cash and no borrowings at the reporting date, giving flexibility for investment and buybacks.
Weaknesses
- Potash sales depend on prices and farmer demand, and volumes fell in the second quarter of 2026.
- The company is less diversified than most competitors, which can amplify the effect of market cycles.
- Production is concentrated in a few sites, so a disruption at one of them could affect deliveries.
Opportunities
- The lithium project with partners could add a new income stream if it is completed successfully.
- Higher production guidance and lower planned capital spending could support margins if execution holds.
- Demand for chloride-free products could grow in high-value agriculture, where the company focuses its marketing.
Threats
- Tariffs, sanctions and geopolitical tensions can raise costs and disrupt supply chains.
- New potash projects in other countries could create oversupply and pressure prices.
- Alternative oilfield products could replace water and potassium chloride, reducing demand for the segment just sold.
Risks
- Price cyclicalityhigh
Potash and Trio prices are volatile and there are no active hedge markets, so the company stays exposed to price declines.
- Operational concentrationhigh
A limited number of critical facilities means that a disruption at one mine or compaction plant could affect output.
- Tariffs and trademedium
Shifting trade policy can raise equipment and energy costs and reduce international demand.
- Pecos water rights mattermedium
A loss contingency related to Pecos water rights was recorded in the second quarter and further costs may arise.
- Regulatory dependencemedium
Permits, leases and legislative changes can affect operations, and environmental liabilities can raise costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If prices stay supported and production rises in line with guidance, margins could keep improving, especially in Trio.
- A balance sheet without borrowings and an expanded buyback programme give financial flexibility.
- The lithium project could create a source of income independent of the traditional fertilizer market.
What would break the thesis
- Potash volumes fell in 2026, and if farmer demand stays weak, price gains could be offset.
- The sale of Intrepid South reduces diversification, and the oilfield segment no longer contributes stable revenue.
- Tariffs, Middle East tensions and new global supply could pressure margins over the medium term.
What to watch
- Delivery against potash and Trio production guidanceQ3 2026
- Potash sales volumes and realized price trendQ3 2026
- Final investment decision on the Wendover lithium project2026
- Resolution of the Pecos water rights contingencynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Intrepid Potash, Inc. describes itself as a diversified mineral company delivering potassium, magnesium, sulfur, salt and water products for agriculture, animal feed and the oil and gas industry. According to its fiscal 2025 annual report, operations are conducted entirely in the continental U.S., from three solar solution mines at Carlsbad (New Mexico), Moab and Wendover (Utah), while Trio is produced from the East underground mine in Carlsbad 1. Potash is used as a crop nutrient, an animal feed ingredient and in drilling fluids, and solar solution mining is cited as a cost advantage over conventional mines 1.
The revenue mix has shifted toward Trio: in 2025 Trio accounted for 48% of product sales against 39% for potash, compared with 35% and 47% in 2023 1. In April 2026 the company completed the sale of Intrepid South, its oilfield-related business, for 68.9 million USD, and reporting was recast to two reportable segments, potash and Trio 2. The reorganisation therefore changes the company's risk profile.
In market share terms, the company supplied about 4.0% of U.S. annual potassium consumption in 2025 and about 0.5% of global consumption 1. Designed annual capacity is 365,000 tons of potash and 400,000 tons of Trio, while actual production runs below these levels 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the company raised full-year production guidance to 290-300 thousand tons for potash and 295-305 thousand tons for Trio 3.
Segments
Potash
The potash segment sells muriate of potash for agriculture, animal feed and industrial uses. The average net realized price was 353 USD per ton in 2025, down from 377 USD in 2024 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the price rose to 391 USD per ton, but sales volumes fell 14%, showing sensitivity to farmer demand 3.
Trio
Trio is a specialty fertilizer delivering potassium, magnesium and sulfur in one particle, with demand supported by chloride-free products. The average net realized price rose to 367 USD per ton in 2025 from 311 USD in 2024 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the cost of goods sold per ton fell to 205 USD, the lowest since Q4 2019 3.
Market context
The potash market is cyclical and concentrated: six countries produce about 88% of world potash, and Canpotex, which includes two major Canadian producers, supplied about 29% of global output 1. World production reached about 74 million metric tonnes in 2025 and is projected at 76 million metric tonnes in 2026 1. BHP's Jansen project in Canada, expected around 2027, could add supply and influence prices 1.
The U.S. market is also shaped by tariffs and sanctions. Sanctions on Belarusian potash, which historically accounted for about 7% of U.S. demand, were lifted in December 2025, but the effect on the market remains uncertain 1. Tensions in the Middle East have raised input and freight costs, which affect margins 2.
Trends
- Demand for chloride-free Triotailwind
Demand for chloride-free, sulfate-containing nutrients supported Trio prices in 2025 and 2026, and if these conditions persist, segment margins could remain solid.
- Trade tariffsheadwind
U.S. tariffs, including Section 232 and Section 122 measures, create uncertainty over costs and demand, and retaliatory tariffs could reduce export sales.
- Potash supply cyclemixed
Rising global output could pressure prices if demand does not keep pace, and oversupply could return once new projects come online.
- Lithium at Wendovermixed
The lithium project, developed with partners under a joint development agreement, could open a new revenue source if a final investment decision is taken in 2026.
Competitive position
In potash, Intrepid competes with larger Canadian producers and, to a lesser extent, producers in Russia, Chile, Germany and Israel. The company relies on being the only U.S. potash producer and on a logistical position favourable to the North American market 1.
For Trio, competition comes from one other langbeinite producer and from producers of other specialty nutrients and blended products. Larger competitors may have advantages in name recognition, financial resources and asset diversity 1.
- Canpotex
Marketing group of two major Canadian potash producers, which supplied about 29% of global production in 2025 1.
- Canadian potash producers
Main potash competitors, facing higher production and tax burdens than U.S. producers according to the source 1.
- Russian and Belarusian producers
Hold a large share of global supply and influence prices through volume and export policy 1.
- Other langbeinite producer
The only direct competitor named for Trio, in a segment that is a growth focus for the company 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Intrepid’s Co-Founder Wants Travelers Closer to HomeSkift · 25 Sept 2026 · EN
- Intrepid’s (IPI) Trio Turnaround Funds A Bigger Buyback And Cleaner Balance SheetYahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Skift Global Forum Preview: Intrepid’s Chairman on the Climate Cost His Rivals SidestepSkift · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Intrepid Partners With Air Canada Vacations Right as Canada Pushes For More Domestic Travel: ExclusiveSkift · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- USS Intrepid's History Spans War, Space and 9/11Bloomberg Markets · 04 Jul 2026 · EN
- Celebrating '250' from the USS IntrepidBloomberg Markets · 04 Jul 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 25 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement17 Apr 2026
- Current report02 Apr 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Intrepid Potash, Inc. · 05 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Intrepid Potash, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Intrepid Potash, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.