olivLaw · US equity research
Centrus Energy Corp. LEU
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) · SIC 1400 · Vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)
Centrus Energy is a US supplier of nuclear fuel components and enrichment services, with most revenue from its LEU segment. In 2026 the company is in an expansion phase at Piketon, Ohio, backed by Department of Energy contracts but dependent on funding and on Russian uranium supply. Second quarter 2026 revenue was 176.1 million USD and total backlog reached 4.5 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) stock was 92.58 USD (−3.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, P/E 42.2 on diluted EPS of 2.19 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.42, 52-week range 92.58–337.76 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 176.1 m USD (+14.0% YoY), net income of 16.8 m USD (−41.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.77 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 29.5
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 83.40 – 143.43
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.15 · band width 52.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 139.74 / 182.10
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -12.70 / -12.23
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −34.5% | −1.1% | −33.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −50.7% | −0.5% | −50.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −60.0% | +4.4% | −64.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −61.9% | +12.3% | −74.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −71.7% | +13.5% | −85.2 pp | −11.5% |
| 3 years | +68.7% | +76.4% | −7.7 pp | +17.2% |
| 5 years | +44.2% | +63.7% | −19.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 57.7 m | 151.6 m | 73.1 m | 154.5 m | 74.9 m | 146.2 m | 76.7 m | 176.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 48.8 m | 89.8 m | 40.2 m | 100.6 m | 79.2 m | 111.2 m | 45.2 m | 126.2 m |
| Gross profit | 8.9 m | 61.8 m | 32.9 m | 53.9 m | -4.3 m | 35.0 m | 31.5 m | 49.9 m |
| Research & development | 4.1 m | 3.3 m | 3.0 m | 3.3 m | 1.7 m | 8.9 m | 18.9 m | 10.8 m |
| SG&A | 9.6 m | 10.4 m | 8.3 m | 13.4 m | 8.9 m | 10.3 m | 10.0 m | 26.2 m |
| Operating income | -7.6 m | 45.1 m | 20.5 m | 33.5 m | -16.6 m | 12.8 m | 800.0 k | 10.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.7 m ≈ | 2.9 m | 1.5 m | 3.9 m ≈ | 1.5 m ≈ | 3.0 m | 2.2 m | 2.9 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 100.0 k | 1.9 m | 3.4 m | 3.1 m | 3.4 m | 4.1 m | 4.0 m | 4.2 m |
| Pre-tax income | -5.9 m | 47.8 m | 35.2 m | 37.4 m | -8.0 m | 21.3 m | 12.5 m | 21.6 m |
| Income tax | -900.0 k | -5.9 m | 8.0 m | 8.5 m | -11.9 m | 3.5 m | 2.5 m | 4.8 m |
| Net income | -5.0 m | 53.7 m | 27.2 m | 28.9 m | 3.9 m | 17.8 m | 10.0 m | 16.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.30 | 3.20 ≈ | 1.60 | 1.59 | 0.19 | 0.78 ≈ | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| Operating cash flow | -33.2 m ≈ | 57.9 m | 36.5 m | 52.8 m ≈ | 10.1 m ≈ | -48.4 m | -35.1 m | 18.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.0 m ≈ | 700.0 k | 2.1 m | 3.6 m ≈ | 4.4 m ≈ | 9.6 m | 23.2 m | 71.6 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 83 percentile of its own 24-quarter history (min 1.7, median 9.9, max 76.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2014 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 514.1 m | 209.7 m | 247.2 m | 298.3 m | 293.8 m | 320.2 m | 442.0 m | 448.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | −60.7% | unavailable | +17.9% | +20.7% | −1.5% | +9.0% | +38.0% | +1.5% |
| Net income | unavailable | -16.5 m | 54.4 m | 175.0 m | 52.2 m | 84.4 m | 73.2 m | 77.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +221.7% | −70.2% | +61.7% | −13.3% | +6.3% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -2.54 | 0.57 | 9.75 | 3.38 | 5.44 | 4.47 | 3.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +1,610.5% | −65.3% | +60.9% | −17.8% | −12.8% |
| net % | unavailable | -7.9% | 22.0% | 58.7% | 17.8% | 26.4% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 11.2 m | 65.7 m | 48.8 m | 19.9 m | 7.5 m | 32.9 m | 31.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- -782.4 m USD
- Equity
- 765.1 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.54x
- Current ratio
- 5.59x
- ROE
- 16.8%
- ROA
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- 7.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 247.2 m | 298.3 m | 293.8 m | 320.2 m | 442.0 m | 448.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 149.6 m | 183.8 m | 175.9 m | 208.1 m | 330.5 m | 331.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 97.6 m | 114.5 m | 117.9 m | 112.1 m | 111.5 m | 117.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 2.8 m | 2.1 m | 14.8 m | 14.2 m | 17.2 m | 16.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 36.0 m | 36.0 m | 33.9 m | 36.9 m | 35.0 m | 36.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 51.0 m | 68.3 m | 59.7 m | 52.4 m | 48.0 m | 50.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 7.3 m | 8.6 m | 9.6 m | 7.1 m | 10.8 m | 9.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 58.3 m ≈ | 76.9 m ≈ | 69.3 m ≈ | 59.5 m ≈ | 58.8 m ≈ | 60.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 100.0 k | 100.0 k | 500.0 k | 1.3 m | 2.7 m | 14.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 53.0 m | 135.9 m | 67.8 m | 84.5 m | 73.0 m | 85.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -1.4 m | -39.1 m | 15.6 m | 100.0 k | -200.0 k | 8.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 54.4 m | 175.0 m | 52.2 m | 84.4 m | 73.2 m | 77.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.57 | 9.75 | 3.38 | 5.44 | 4.47 | 3.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 10.1 m | 13.9 m | 15.0 m | 15.5 m | 16.4 m | 19.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 152.0 m | 193.8 m | 179.9 m | 201.2 m | 671.4 m | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 29.6 m | 29.1 m | 38.1 m | 49.4 m | 80.0 m | 30.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 64.8 m | 91.1 m | 209.2 m | 306.4 m | 161.6 m | 322.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 406.1 m | 465.9 m | 587.1 m | 685.4 m | 1.0 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.9 m | 5.3 m | 5.5 m | 7.0 m | 9.4 m | 29.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 62.8 m | 54.7 m | 45.7 m | 39.4 m | 29.6 m | 21.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 486.3 m | 572.4 m | 705.5 m | 796.2 m | 1.1 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 21.3 m | 37.8 m | 65.5 m | 41.9 m | 38.8 m | 41.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 6.1 m | 6.1 m | 6.1 m | 6.1 m | 6.1 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 108.0 m | 101.8 m | 95.7 m | 89.6 m | 472.5 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 366.1 m | 393.3 m | 449.2 m | 471.1 m | 346.8 m | 422.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 806.9 m | 714.3 m | 779.6 m | 763.9 m | 932.0 m | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -320.6 m † | -141.9 m † | -74.1 m † | 32.3 m † | 161.4 m † | 765.1 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 67.1 m | 50.0 m | 20.6 m | 9.1 m | 37.0 m | 51.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.4 m | 1.2 m | 700.0 k | 1.6 m | 4.1 m | 19.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 65.7 m ≈ | 48.8 m ≈ | 19.9 m ≈ | 7.5 m ≈ | 32.9 m ≈ | 31.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.4 m | -1.2 m | -700.0 k | -1.6 m | -4.1 m | -19.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -44.4 m | -9.9 m | -4.3 m | 13.9 m | 437.1 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 44 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet70
- Growth66
- Valuation4
- Quality57
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 36.94 – 73.44 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDA61.49 – 73.44 (Mid 71.56)7 companies used · median multiple 16.9x · quartiles 8.8x – 18.4xCMP, KNF, MLM, SND, TTAM, USLM, VMC
- Peers: P/E36.94 – 58.24 (Mid 52.59)9 companies used · median multiple 24.0x · quartiles 16.9x – 26.6xHL, IPI, KNF, MLM, SND, SQM, TTAM, USLM, VMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 44/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.6% | 91 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.2% | 59 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -337.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 15.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.9% | 33 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -40.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 5.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 42.2x | 10 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 33.8x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -12.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth66/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation4/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 448.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.5%; net margin 10.2%; ROE 8.1%; net debt/EBITDA -40.6x.
The estimated value range is 49.22–65.84 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 62.08 USD, the price of 92.58 USD leaves a potential of -32.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -49.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 17.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -40.6x
- Current ratio: 5.4x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -337.7%
- Interest coverage: 0.5x
- P/E (TTM): 42.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 33.8x
- FCF yield: -12.9%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 39.6 bn | 14.7 | 16.8% | 31.9% | +8.6% | −11% / +20% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | 38.2 bn | 35.2 | 12.9% | 13.8% | +7.1% | +0% / +39% |
| SQMChemical & Mining Co Of Chile Inc | 15.1 bn | 24.0 | 14.3% | 15.1% | −39.4% | −11% / +15% |
| HLHecla Mining Company | 10.0 bn | 26.7 | 14.5% | 21.0% | +53.0% | −11% / +200% |
| IONRIoneer Ltd | 7.2 bn | — | -4.3% | — | unavailable | −44% / −35% |
| USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals Inc | 3.5 bn | 26.6 | 20.0% | 35.1% | +17.3% | +1% / +191% |
| KNFKnife River Corporation | 3.5 bn | 26.3 | 8.0% | 4.0% | +8.5% | −17% / +4% |
| TTAMTitan America SA | 2.6 bn | 14.2 | 20.8% | 11.1% | +1.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -14.1% | -100.0% | −15.6% | −50% / −10% |
| LEUCentrus Energy Corp | 1.3 bn | 42.2 | 8.1% | 10.2% | +1.5% | −72% / +69% |
| CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc. | 976.5 m | 54.2 | 7.2% | 1.4% | +11.3% | +22% / −4% |
| GAUGaliano Gold Inc. | 540.4 m | — | -12.7% | -6.5% | +93.6% | −14% / +220% |
| IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc. | 418.0 m | 17.1 | 4.8% | 8.0% | +17.1% | +24% / +52% |
| SNDSmart Sand, Inc. | 185.3 m | 16.9 | 4.4% | 2.7% | +6.0% | +48% / +124% |
| ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company | 183.9 m | — | -74.5% | -337.5% | +406.8% | −66% / −70% |
| ATLXAtlas Lithium Corporation | 52.1 m | — | -103.0% | -33,954.4% | −86.1% | −65% / −93% |
| LGOLargo Inc. | 27.7 m | — | -46.4% | -62.3% | −12.0% | −67% / −84% |
| ELVRElevra Lithium Limited | — | — | -54.2% | -131.8% | +11.2% | −40% / unavailable |
| TECKTeck Resources Limited | — | — | 5.5% | 13.0% | +18.7% | +50% / +71% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LEU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 97.91 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 172.31 Total return 86% · Per year 86% | 258.46 Total return 179% · Per year 179% |
| 3 years | 116.14 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 227.88 Total return 146% · Per year 35% | 372.18 Total return 302% · Per year 59% |
| 5 years | 137.76 Total return 49% · Per year 8% | 301.36 Total return 226% · Per year 27% | 535.94 Total return 479% · Per year 42% |
- Exit P/E± 56.97
- Net margin± 39.88
- Annual revenue growth± 29.74
- Annual dilution± 3.35
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Centrus Energy is a US supplier of nuclear fuel components and enrichment services, with most revenue from its LEU segment. In 2026 the company is in an expansion phase at Piketon, Ohio, backed by Department of Energy contracts but dependent on funding and on Russian uranium supply. Second quarter 2026 revenue was 176.1 million USD 3 and total backlog reached 4.5 billion USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is an operating supplier that delivered HALEU to the government, which is rare in US enrichment 1. Total backlog and long-term contracts give visibility on revenue 3. Long-term supply contracts cover needs through the end of the decade 1.
- The company presents itself as the only publicly listed entity operating a proven enrichment facility 3. Its technical expertise and specialized facilities are hard to replicate 1.
- High SWU prices have lifted LEU segment margins, while the purchase price under the TENEX contract remains low 12.
Weaknesses
- Results are volatile from quarter to quarter, and SWU volume sold fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 3. Technical Solutions revenue depends on a single government contract 3.
- The company carries significant convertible notes and postretirement obligations 1. Use of its net operating loss carryforwards is limited 1.
- The Piketon and Oak Ridge expansion requires large sums, and the plans depend on the availability of funding 13.
Opportunities
- Demand for HALEU from advanced reactors could grow if these projects advance 1. A HALEU supply agreement with prepayments could support financing 3.
- If the US government expands funding for domestic enrichment, the company could win new orders 1. Growth in contingent backlog offers room for expansion 3.
- If centrifuge production at Oak Ridge comes online, the company could serve additional projects 13.
Threats
- Import restrictions on Russian LEU or a lack of export licences could affect deliveries to customers 1. Sanctions and tariffs can change costs and timelines 1.
- Competition from state suppliers and cheap imports could pressure prices 2. Limited access to foreign markets is a declared risk 1.
- If DOE funding is not provided, the HALEU contract options could lapse 3. Delays in cylinders or components could extend timelines 1.
Risks
- Dependence on the Russian supplierhigh
The import ban and the Russian licensing decree could interrupt LEU deliveries from TENEX, and alternatives do not fully cover the requirement 1.
- Government fundinghigh
DOE contracts depend on Congressional budgets, and HALEU options are not included in the proposal for 2027 3.
- Execution of the expansionmedium
The Piketon and Oak Ridge expansion depends on contractors, workforce and funding, and timelines could slip 13.
- Revenue volatilitymedium
LEU contracts are long-term, but deliveries vary and quarterly results can fluctuate significantly 13.
- Convertible debt and obligationslow
The company has significant long-term obligations, including convertible notes and postretirement benefits 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the SWU price stays high and contingent backlog converts into firm contracts, revenue could rise substantially 23.
- As the only publicly listed proven enricher, with HALEU contracts, the company could hold a strategic advantage for years 3.
- If the Piketon expansion is delivered on schedule, the company could serve domestic demand for LEU and HALEU 13.
What to watch
- DOE funding decisions and HALEU option status2027
- Hiring pace and construction progress at Piketon2026
- Revenue guidance of 450-500 million USDQ3 2026
- Completion of the first centrifuge at Oak Ridge2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Centrus Energy Corp. is a Delaware corporation that supplies nuclear fuel components to the nuclear power industry and provides enrichment and technical services to public and private customers 1. It operates two segments: LEU, which sells fuel components, mainly SWU, to utilities, and Technical Solutions, which develops advanced enrichment for the nuclear industry and the US government 1. The LEU segment provided most revenue, about 77% in 2025 1.
HALEU work began with a DOE demonstration contract signed in 2019 and an operation contract from 2022, which delivered the first kilograms of HALEU by the end of Phase 2 1. The company is expanding capacity at Piketon and at Oak Ridge, where centrifuge manufacturing is to become a high-rate line 1. These plans depend on public and private funding, and timelines are described as estimates 1.
Revenue combines medium and long-term contracts with sales of SWU, natural uranium and occasional complete LEU, so quarterly results can vary widely 23. Backlog runs to 2040 and includes firm commitments as well as contingent sales tied to operational milestones 3.
Segments
Market context
The enrichment market is oversupplied when Russian supply is included but undersupplied without it, and US inventories of enriched uranium may not be enough to offset a loss of Russian supply 2. The SWU spot price climbed from its 2018 low to 200 USD per SWU at the end of 2025 12. Imports of enriched uranium from China rose significantly in 2023, which could change the competitive landscape 2.
Demand for nuclear power remains uncertain, but calls for new US enrichment capacity, for both LEU and HALEU, grew after the war in Ukraine and import restrictions 12. If these trends persist, the company could benefit from high prices and long-term contracts.
Trends
- SWU prices at historically high levelstailwind
The SWU spot price kept rising in 2025 and held steady in 2026, supporting LEU segment revenue 12. Pressure could continue if tariffs on LEU are imposed 2.
- Demand for new enrichment capacitytailwind
Public and private investment in domestic enrichment capacity has grown following Russian supply restrictions 12. The company has secured a 900 million USD HALEU award 3.
- Dependence on the Russian supplierheadwind
The Import Ban Act and the Russian Decree could limit TENEX deliveries, and sanctions could affect transport and payments 1. Available alternatives do not fully cover the required quantity 1.
- Uncertain government fundingmixed
HALEU contract options depend on the DOE budget, which the proposal for 2027 does not include 3. Scaling investment also requires financing from customers or partners 13.
Competitive position
Centrus has described itself as the only publicly traded, proven enricher in the market 3. Competition comes mainly from foreign state suppliers and from imports of enriched uranium, and limited access to foreign markets is a declared risk 1.
The company has noted that enriched imports from China could change pricing and customer buying patterns 2. Its response combines long-term contracts with investment in its own capacity 12.
- Foreign state suppliers (including Rosatom/TENEX)
Foreign governments, including through TENEX, are major competitors and SWU suppliers, with export restrictions that affect market access 1.
- Chinese enriched uranium importers
The rise in imports from China reported in trade data could change pricing competition 2.
- Other US enrichment capacity developers
Calls for domestic capacity attract new projects, and the company presents itself as the most advanced operator 13.
- Component and construction suppliers
Dependence on contractors and critical suppliers for the Piketon and Oak Ridge expansion can influence project timing 3.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Centrus Energy (LEU) Lands New HALEU Deal with AntaresYahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Centrus Energy (LEU) May Have Found its Next Major Growth OpportunityYahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 20 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Sept 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report06 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Centrus Energy Corp. · 11 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Centrus Energy Corp. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Centrus Energy Corp. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.