olivLaw · US equity research
Vulcan Materials Company VMC
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) · SIC 1400 · Vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)
Vulcan Materials is the largest U.S. supplier of construction aggregates, with total revenues of 7941.1 million USD in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues rose modestly, and the company reiterated its full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook of 2.4 to 2.6 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock was 297.69 USD (+4.60% on the day), with market capitalisation 38.2 bn USD, P/E 35.2 on diluted EPS of 8.45 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.69%, beta 0.76, 52-week range 240.83–330.37 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.2 bn USD (−4.7% YoY), net income of 362.3 m USD (−3.4% YoY), diluted EPS 2.80 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 76.5
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 231.87 – 294.91
- above the upper band · %B 1.04 · band width 23.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 256.62 / 280.04
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 9.60 / 5.61
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +21.2% | −1.1% | +22.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.8% | −0.5% | +4.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.7% | +4.4% | −3.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +4.4% | +12.3% | −7.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.9% | +13.5% | −11.7 pp | −13.2% |
| 3 years | +43.3% | +76.4% | −33.1 pp | +17.2% |
| 5 years | +51.8% | +63.7% | −11.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Gross profit | 537.2 m | 365.3 m | 625.2 m | 697.2 m | 486.9 m | 422.7 m | 625.5 m | 665.6 m |
| SG&A | 138.1 m | 138.3 m | 144.5 m | 145.3 m | 136.1 m | 135.7 m | 141.3 m | 137.0 m |
| Operating income | 401.0 m | 226.4 m | 471.0 m | 543.2 m | 378.9 m | 265.4 m | 455.5 m | 524.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 163.8 m | 186.4 m | 185.5 m | 191.4 m | 185.3 m | 170.3 m | 177.5 m | 181.2 m |
| Interest expense | 73.5 m | 59.7 m | 59.2 m | 55.3 m | 65.5 m | 53.9 m | 54.7 m | 51.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 339.0 m | 164.1 m | 414.2 m | 488.6 m | 323.2 m | 212.9 m | 404.5 m | 471.2 m |
| Income tax | 42.9 m | 33.8 m | 91.3 m | 112.4 m | 70.1 m | 45.9 m | 81.4 m | 107.1 m |
| Net income | 293.7 m | 128.9 m | 320.9 m | 374.9 m | 252.0 m | 165.5 m | 323.4 m | 362.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 2.21 ≈ | 0.97 | 2.42 | 2.82 | 1.91 ≈ | 1.26 | 2.48 | 2.80 |
| Operating cash flow | 440.1 m | 251.5 m | 341.7 m ≈ | 676.8 m ≈ | 543.0 m | 241.1 m | 343.5 m ≈ | 386.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 162.5 m | 168.0 m | 102.9 m ≈ | 222.0 m ≈ | 184.8 m | 176.5 m | 193.9 m ≈ | 177.6 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 60.8 m | 66.0 m | 64.7 m ≈ | 64.7 m ≈ | 64.4 m | 67.9 m | 67.5 m ≈ | 66.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 38.1 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 400.3 m | 149.5 m | 250.3 m ≈ | 350.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 55 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 20.8, median 34.9, max 58.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.7% | +12.5% | −1.5% | +14.3% | +31.8% | +6.4% | −4.7% | +7.1% |
| Net income | 515.8 m | 617.7 m | 584.5 m | 670.8 m | 575.6 m | 933.2 m | 911.9 m | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | −14.2% | +19.8% | −5.4% | +14.8% | −14.2% | +62.1% | −2.3% | +18.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.85 | 4.63 | 4.39 | 5.02 | 4.31 | 6.98 | 6.85 | 8.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −13.7% | +20.3% | −5.2% | +14.4% | −14.1% | +61.9% | −1.9% | +18.4% |
| net % | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
| Free cash flow | 363.7 m | 600.0 m | 708.2 m | 560.6 m | 535.6 m | 664.2 m | 806.1 m | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 183.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 4.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 4.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 8.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 16.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.51x
- Current ratio
- 2.69x
- ROE
- 12.9%
- ROA
- 6.4%
- FCF margin
- 14.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 359.8 m | 417.6 m | 515.1 m | 542.8 m | 531.1 m | 564.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 895.7 m | 1.0 bn | 951.4 m | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 396.8 m | 463.0 m | 587.5 m | 617.0 m | 632.2 m | 748.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 136.0 m | 149.3 m | 169.2 m | 196.1 m | 191.2 m | 239.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 743.8 m | 873.8 m | 788.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 155.8 m | 200.1 m | 193.0 m | 299.4 m | 251.4 m | 307.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 584.5 m | 670.8 m | 575.6 m | 933.2 m | 911.9 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.39 | 5.02 | 4.31 | 6.98 | 6.85 | 8.11 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 133.2 m | 133.5 m | 133.6 m | 133.7 m | 133.1 m | 132.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.36 | 1.48 | 1.60 | 1.72 | 1.84 | 1.96 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 bn | 235.0 m | 161.4 m | 931.1 m | 559.7 m | 183.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 512.9 m | 783.2 m | 845.6 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2023verified |
| Inventories | 448.6 m | 521.3 m | 579.3 m | 615.6 m | 681.8 m | 680.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.4 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.7 bn | 13.7 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.5 bn | 17.1 bn | 16.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 100.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.0 bn | 769.3 m | 956.6 m | 797.6 m | 1.2 bn | 956.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.7 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.0 bn | 9.0 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.0 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 362.2 m | 451.3 m | 612.6 m | 872.6 m | 603.5 m | 677.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 708.2 m ≈ | 560.6 m ≈ | 535.6 m ≈ | 664.2 m ≈ | 806.1 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -381.5 m | -1.9 bn | -1.1 bn | -163.5 m | -2.8 bn | -529.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 234.6 m | -94.3 m | -175.2 m | -585.6 m | 1.1 bn | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 180.2 m | 196.4 m | 212.6 m | 228.4 m | 244.4 m | 259.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 26.1 m | 0 | 0 | 200.0 m | 68.8 m | 438.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 38.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation30
- Returns72
- Quality66
- Balance sheet56
- Growth62
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 67.34 – 366.26 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)67.34 – 123.93 (Mid 88.98)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 958.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA128.11 – 366.26 (Mid 275.67)7 companies used · median multiple 16.9x · quartiles 8.8x – 21.9xCMP, KNF, LEU, MLM, SND, TTAM, USLM
- Peers: P/E137.92 – 222.99 (Mid 173.65)8 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 16.3x – 26.4xHL, IPI, KNF, MLM, SND, SQM, TTAM, USLM
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate25.76 – 34.64 (Mid 29.54)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.0% | 64 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 13.8% | 76 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 70.8% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.8% | 23 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 23.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 38 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.2x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 52 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 35.2x | 20 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 18.1x | 43 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.0% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.7% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 34.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth62/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns72/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY (VMC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.1%; net margin 13.8%; ROE 12.9%; net debt/EBITDA 1.8x.
The estimated value range is 128.11–222.99 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 173.65 USD, the price of 297.69 USD leaves a potential of -41.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -71.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 13.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 23.5%
- Interest coverage: 7.2x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 34.1%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.8%
- P/E (TTM): 35.2x
- FCF yield: 2.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 39.6 bn | 14.7 | 16.8% | 31.9% | +8.6% | −11% / +20% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | 38.2 bn | 35.2 | 12.9% | 13.8% | +7.1% | +2% / +43% |
| SQMChemical & Mining Co Of Chile Inc | 15.1 bn | 24.0 | 14.3% | 15.1% | −39.4% | −11% / +15% |
| HLHecla Mining Company | 10.0 bn | 26.7 | 14.5% | 21.0% | +53.0% | −11% / +200% |
| IONRIoneer Ltd | 7.2 bn | — | -4.3% | — | unavailable | −44% / −35% |
| USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals Inc | 3.5 bn | 26.6 | 20.0% | 35.1% | +17.3% | +1% / +191% |
| KNFKnife River Corporation | 3.5 bn | 26.3 | 8.0% | 4.0% | +8.5% | −17% / +4% |
| TTAMTitan America SA | 2.6 bn | 14.2 | 20.8% | 11.1% | +1.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -14.1% | -100.0% | −15.6% | −50% / −10% |
| LEUCentrus Energy Corp | 1.3 bn | 42.2 | 8.1% | 10.2% | +1.5% | −64% / +85% |
| CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc. | 976.5 m | 54.2 | 7.2% | 1.4% | +11.3% | +22% / −4% |
| GAUGaliano Gold Inc. | 540.4 m | — | -12.7% | -6.5% | +93.6% | −14% / +220% |
| IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc. | 418.0 m | 17.1 | 4.8% | 8.0% | +17.1% | +24% / +52% |
| SNDSmart Sand, Inc. | 185.3 m | 16.9 | 4.4% | 2.7% | +6.0% | +48% / +124% |
| ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company | 183.9 m | — | -74.5% | -337.5% | +406.8% | −66% / −70% |
| ATLXAtlas Lithium Corporation | 52.1 m | — | -103.0% | -33,954.4% | −86.1% | −65% / −93% |
| LGOLargo Inc. | 27.7 m | — | -46.4% | -62.3% | −12.0% | −67% / −84% |
| ELVRElevra Lithium Limited | — | — | -54.2% | -131.8% | +11.2% | −40% / unavailable |
| TECKTeck Resources Limited | — | — | 5.5% | 13.0% | +18.7% | +50% / +71% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VMC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 175.94 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 311.31 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 469.28 Total return 59% · Per year 59% |
| 3 years | 164.88 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 328.83 Total return 13% · Per year 4% | 545.09 Total return 86% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 154.52 Total return -46% · Per year -11% | 347.32 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 633.13 Total return 118% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 82.21
- Net margin± 57.54
- Annual revenue growth± 48.03
- Annual dilution± 4.84
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Vulcan Materials is the largest U.S. supplier of construction aggregates, with total revenues of 7941.1 million USD in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues rose modestly, and the company reiterated its full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook of 2.4 to 2.6 billion USD 23.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Construction cyclicalityhigh
Revenues depend on construction activity, and a downturn in major markets could materially affect results 1.
- Mexico situationhigh
Mexican authorities ordered a halt to extraction at Calica and declared the properties a protected natural area, which the company is contesting through arbitration 1.
- Energy and fuel costsmedium
Higher energy and diesel prices raised unit costs, and pressure could continue if energy markets stay volatile 3.
- Financing costsmedium
Debt of over 4 billion USD could become more expensive if credit ratings weaken or capital markets deteriorate 1.
- Product liability and regulationlow
Products that fail building code or contract specifications could lead to claims, and environmental and climate rules could raise costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company has steadily grown gross profit per ton of aggregates and reaffirmed its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook, suggesting its pricing and cost strategy is working 12.
- Reserves that are hard to permit and a position in fast-growing regions create entry barriers that could protect long-term margins 1.
- Operating cash flow funds strategic acquisitions and shareholder returns, which could support long-term value 2.
What would break the thesis
- Revenues depend on construction and public funding, so an economic slowdown could quickly reduce volumes and profitability 1.
- The Mexico blockage and arbitration have an uncertain outcome, and losses could be significant if not resolved favorably 1.
- Energy costs and inflation could reduce margins if they cannot be fully passed on to customers 3.
What to watch
- Delivery of the 2.4 to 2.6 billion USD Adjusted EBITDA outlookQ4 2026
- Trend in cash gross profit per ton for aggregatesQ3 2026
- Effect of public infrastructure funding on volumes2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Production and sales at the Calica operations in Mexico and Puerto Cortés in Honduras are halted, and the Calica situation is subject to arbitration against the Mexican state 1. In 2026 the company completed the divestiture of its California ready-mixed concrete operations and acquired a quarry in southern Colorado 2.
Market context
Aggregates demand depends on construction activity and correlates positively with population, employment and household growth 1. The company projects that 76% of U.S. population growth over 2025-2035 will occur in Vulcan-served states 1. High transport costs limit competition to the area around each quarry, making local position critical 1.
Public infrastructure funding, including the federal highway program under the IIJA law, supports demand for several years, but timing and amounts remain uncertain 1. Roughly 40% to 55% of aggregates shipments have historically gone to publicly-funded construction 2. Construction firms could slow projects if inflation and labor constraints persist 1.
Competitive position
The aggregates industry is highly fragmented, with many independent local producers, and in most markets Vulcan also competes with large private and public companies, some of them vertically integrated 1. Recycled concrete and asphalt are increasingly used as substitutes, especially in urban markets 1. Competition could lead to lower prices and volumes 1.
Vulcan's advantages include reserves that are hard to permit, a network of quarries in fast-growing regions and its own logistics, which lower the risk of losing market share 12. Entry barriers are high in many cities because of strict zoning and permitting rules 1.
- Independent local aggregates producers
Numerous regional operators that compete directly in local aggregates markets, where transport costs limit reach 1.
- Large vertically integrated private and public companies
Competitors active in several markets that can control the chain from quarry to asphalt or concrete 1.
- Recycled concrete and asphalt aggregate producers
Not classic aggregates producers, but they partly replace demand in urban markets 1.
- Marine and rail transport operators
Water and rail carriers that allow delivery into Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard markets 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- O centrală geotermală de 3 tone a reușit să producă electricitate folosind căldura unui vulcan activ, la 1.500 de metri sub PacificLibertatea.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Critical launch for Vulcan as ULA targets Friday the 13thThe Register · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Discuție aplicată între România și Ucraina pe F-16 și drone: Rachete AIM-9, muniție pentru tunurile Vulcan și producție comună de drone prin SAFEDefenseRomania.ro · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- Elena Alexieva, autoarea romanului „Vulcan”, despre literatură și inspirațieAdevărul · 27 Oct 2026 · RO
- Scenariu apocaliptic. Un vulcan submarin ar putea distruge o parte din Italia cu valuri tsunami de peste 20 de metriMediafax · 26 Oct 2026 · RO
- Ministerul Energiei anunţă măsuri privind nemulțumirile salariale ale minerilor de la VulcanDigi24 · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Ministerul Energiei promite soluții pentru minerii de la Vulcan după protestul din subteran. Concluziile discuțiilor cu reprezentanții salariațilorAdevărul · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Ministerul Energiei promite măsuri pentru revendicările minerilor de la Vulcan: soluționarea problemei coeficientului de ierarhizare până la 1 noiembrie și demersuri legislative pentru alinierea salariilorFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Protestul de la mina Vulcan s-a încheiat. Ce au obținut minerii care s-au blocat două zile în subteranAntena 3 CNN · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Minerii care s-au blocat în subteranul minei Vulcan au renunțat la protest. Activitatea a revenit la normalEconomedia · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- 100 de mineri de la Mina Vulcan protestează de două zile, inclusiv în subteran. Cartel ALFA: Unii protestatari au avut nevoie de îngrijiri medicaleFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Hunedoara: Protestul de la exploatarea Vulcan continuă; 67 de mineri sunt încă în subteranFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Peste 90 de mineri protestează de mai bine de 24 de ore în subteranul Minei Vulcan. Doi au ajuns la spitalSpotMedia.ro · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- VIDEO Peste 90 de mineri s-au autoblocat în subteranul minei Vulcan / Prefectul discută cu protestatariiG4Media · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Unui miner i s-a făcut rău după 24 de ore în subteran. Aproape 90 de ortaci protestează la Mina VulcanAdevărul · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Minerii s-au blocat în subteran, unuia i s-a făcut rău. Protest de 24 ore la Mina VulcanProfit.ro · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- 90 de mineri refuză să iasă de 24 de ore din subteran: reclamă salarii mai mici, după transferul de la Lupeni la Mina Vulcan. Un angajat a leșinatLibertatea.ro · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Protestul de la Mina Vulcan se extinde. Peste 90 de mineri s-au blocat în subteran. Unuia i s-a făcut rău și a fost chemată ambulanțaAntena 3 CNN · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Protestul de la Mina Vulcan continuă pentru a doua zi. Aproximativ 90 de mineri refuză să iasă din subteranDigi24 · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Protest într-o mină din România. Pe fondul unor nemulțumiri salariale, minerii din schimbul de noapte de la mina Vulcan au rămas în subteranProfit.ro · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report30 Oct 2026Item 1.04
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Vulcan Materials Company · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Vulcan Materials Company · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Vulcan Materials Company · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.