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olivLaw · US equity research

Knife River Corporation KNF

Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) · SIC 1400 · Vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)

62.24USD+6.34% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Knife River is an aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services provider with vertical integration across the western and central United States. The company reported total revenue of 3146.0 million USD in fiscal 2025 and raised its 2026 revenue guidance, while public infrastructure funding remains an important support.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Knife River Corporation (KNF) stock was 62.24 USD (+6.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.5 bn USD, P/E 26.3 on diluted EPS of 2.36 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.43, 52-week range 47.98–93.97 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+6.0% YoY), net income of 137.9 m USD (−3.7% YoY), diluted EPS 2.43 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.5 bn USD
shares as of 29 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.3
Diluted EPS TTM 2.36 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.80%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.43
Volatility (1y) 51%
52-week range
47.9893.97

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
71.1
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
45.75 – 60.72
above the upper band · %B 1.10 · band width 28.1%
SMA 50 / 200
55.35 / 73.86
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.28 / -0.03
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+19.8%−1.1%+20.9 pp—
3 months−8.2%−0.5%−7.7 pp—
6 months−32.0%+4.4%−36.4 pp—
Year to date−11.5%+12.3%−23.8 pp—
1 year−6.0%+13.5%−19.6 pp−11.5%
3 years+13.8%+76.4%−62.6 pp+29.6%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−48.9%
17 Feb 2026 → 14 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−55.3%
21 Jan 2025 → 14 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.3 bn USD
+6.0% YoY
Net income
137.9 m USD
−3.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.43
−3.6% YoY
net / operating
10.8% / 16.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue657.2 m353.5 m833.8 m1.2 bn755.1 m410.1 m938.6 m1.3 bn
Cost of revenue543.1 m363.1 m676.5 m919.4 m609.7 m412.9 m775.8 m988.0 m
Gross profit114.1 m-9.6 m157.2 m284.3 m145.3 m-2.8 m162.8 m287.6 m
SG&A70.1 m73.1 m69.2 m69.1 m80.1 m83.5 m81.7 m73.5 m
Operating income44.0 m-82.7 m88.1 m215.2 m65.2 m-86.2 m81.1 m214.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation35.4 m38.8 m50.2 m53.5 m51.3 m52.2 m56.4 m55.6 m
Interest expense13.4 m15.3 m22.3 m23.0 m21.3 m20.7 m24.6 m24.7 m
Pre-tax income33.1 m-93.3 m67.9 m193.4 m45.2 m-107.6 m59.8 m188.6 m
Income tax9.9 m-24.6 m17.3 m50.2 m13.2 m-28.4 m16.0 m50.8 m
Net income23.3 m-68.7 m50.6 m143.2 m32.0 m-79.2 m43.9 m137.9 m
Diluted EPS0.41 ≈-1.210.892.520.56 ≈-1.400.772.43
Operating cash flow172.4 m-125.3 m-42.6 m ≈250.4 m ≈195.9 m-58.6 m-75.1 m ≈194.5 m ≈
Capex45.3 m75.0 m153.6 m ≈61.7 m ≈57.7 m77.3 m72.9 m ≈58.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 57 percentile of its own 14-quarter history (min 15.4, median 25.8, max 34.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20212022202320242025
Revenue2.2 bn2.5 bn2.8 bn2.9 bn3.1 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+13.7%+11.7%+2.4%+8.5%
Net income129.8 m116.2 m182.9 m201.7 m157.1 m
Net income YoYunavailable−10.4%+57.3%+10.3%−22.1%
Diluted EPS2.292.053.233.552.76
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−10.5%+57.6%+9.9%−22.3%
net %5.8%4.6%6.5%7.0%5.0%
Free cash flow7.0 m29.3 m211.4 m149.9 m-69.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
73.8 m USD
Financial debt
1.2 bn USD
Net debt
1.1 bn USD
Equity
1.6 bn USD
Total assets
3.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.71x
Current ratio
2.54x
ROE
10.1%
ROA
4.8%
FCF margin
-2.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
538.9 m
2024
569.8 m
2025
577.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
242.5 m
2024
253.6 m
2025
291.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
296.4 m
2024
316.2 m
2025
285.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
123.8 m
2024
136.9 m
2025
193.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
420.2 m ≈
2024
453.1 m ≈
2025
479.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
58.1 m
2024
55.2 m
2025
81.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
245.3 m
2024
271.0 m
2025
213.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
62.4 m
2024
69.3 m
2025
56.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
182.9 m
2024
201.7 m
2025
157.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.23
2024
3.55
2025
2.76

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
56.7 m
2024
56.8 m
2025
56.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
219.3 m
2024
236.8 m
2025
73.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
319.6 m
2024
380.3 m
2025
435.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
913.5 m
2024
987.7 m
2025
960.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
274.5 m
2024
297.2 m
2025
519.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
10.8 m
2024
29.4 m
2025
32.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
107.7 m
2024
140.8 m
2025
145.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
7.1 m
2024
10.5 m
2025
11.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
674.6 m
2024
666.9 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
347.3 m
2024
370.0 m
2025
378.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.3 bn †
2024
1.5 bn †
2025
1.6 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
335.7 m
2024
322.3 m
2025
278.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
124.3 m
2024
172.4 m
2025
348.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
211.4 m ≈
2024
149.9 m ≈
2025
-69.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-117.9 m
2024
-294.8 m
2025
-913.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
34.4 m
2024
-8.7 m
2025
477.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
-9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-22.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
-22.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-146.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
17.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
14.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
8.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
8.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
3.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
256.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
266.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-9.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
-7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
52.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
59 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
29 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
5.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
26.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
18.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 45 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

62.24 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
8.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 29 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 750derived 58

Score by group

  • Balance sheet39
  • Growth66
  • Valuation43
  • Quality38

Estimated value range

Low
59.97
USD per share
Mid
95.40
USD per share
High
120.88
USD per share
Price: 62.24 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 53.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 34.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 39.99 – 163.51 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA79.96 – 163.51 (Mid 131.05)
    7 companies used · median multiple 18.1x · quartiles 12.2x – 21.9x
    CMP, LEU, MLM, SND, TTAM, USLM, VMC
  • Peers: P/E39.99 – 78.25 (Mid 59.75)
    10 companies used · median multiple 25.3x · quartiles 16.9x – 33.1x
    CMP, HL, IPI, LEU, MLM, SND, SQM, TTAM, USLM, VMC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 45/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality6.7%55 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality4.0%47 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality-7.1%0 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.5%62 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth10.4%69 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.9x25 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.0x23 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.7x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation26.3x50 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.1x71 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation-0.3%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth66/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality38/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation43/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Knife River Corporation (KNF). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.5%; net margin 4.0%; ROE 8.0%; net debt/EBITDA 2.9x.

The estimated value range is 59.97–120.88 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 95.40 USD, the price of 62.24 USD leaves a potential of 53.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 34.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 45/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 2.7x
  • EV/EBITDA: 10.1x

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -7.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9x
  • Interest coverage: 3.0x
  • FCF yield: -0.3%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
26.3x
vertical median 25.3x
at median
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
vertical median 18.1x
below median (−44.0%)
P/S
1.0x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−68.7%)
P/B
2.0x
vertical median 2.4x
below median (−14.1%)
ROE
8.0%
vertical median 5.1%
above median (+56.0%)
Net margin
4.0%
vertical median 8.0%
below median (−50.5%)
EBIT margin
8.1%
vertical median 8.6%
below median (−5.1%)
Revenue YoY
8.5%
vertical median 8.6%
at median
Net debt/EBITDA
2.9x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+530.9%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.39.6 bn14.716.8%31.9%+8.6%−11% / +20%
VMCVulcan Materials Company38.2 bn35.212.9%13.8%+7.1%+0% / +39%
SQMChemical & Mining Co Of Chile Inc15.1 bn24.014.3%15.1%−39.4%−11% / +15%
HLHecla Mining Company10.0 bn26.714.5%21.0%+53.0%−11% / +200%
IONRIoneer Ltd7.2 bn—-4.3%—unavailable−44% / −35%
USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals Inc3.5 bn26.620.0%35.1%+17.3%+1% / +191%
KNFKnife River Corporation3.5 bn26.38.0%4.0%+8.5%−6% / +14%
TTAMTitan America SA2.6 bn14.220.8%11.1%+1.8%−12% / unavailable
UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc.1.9 bn—-14.1%-100.0%−15.6%−50% / −10%
LEUCentrus Energy Corp1.3 bn42.28.1%10.2%+1.5%−64% / +85%
CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc.976.5 m54.27.2%1.4%+11.3%+22% / −4%
GAUGaliano Gold Inc.540.4 m—-12.7%-6.5%+93.6%−14% / +220%
IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc.418.0 m17.14.8%8.0%+17.1%+24% / +52%
SNDSmart Sand, Inc.185.3 m16.94.4%2.7%+6.0%+48% / +124%
ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company183.9 m—-74.5%-337.5%+406.8%−66% / −70%
ATLXAtlas Lithium Corporation52.1 m—-103.0%-33,954.4%−86.1%−65% / −93%
LGOLargo Inc.27.7 m—-46.4%-62.3%−12.0%−67% / −84%
ELVRElevra Lithium Limited——-54.2%-131.8%+11.2%−40% / unavailable
TECKTeck Resources Limited——5.5%13.0%+18.7%+50% / +71%

1- and 3-year price returns: for KNF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
38.02
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
67.13
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
100.98
Total return 62% · Per year 62%
3 years
39.13
Total return -37% · Per year -14%
77.53
Total return 25% · Per year 8%
127.73
Total return 105% · Per year 27%
5 years
40.28
Total return -35% · Per year -8%
89.54
Total return 44% · Per year 8%
161.57
Total return 160% · Per year 21%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 19.38
  • Net margin± 13.57
  • Annual revenue growth± 10.83
  • Annual dilution± 1.14

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

In brief

Knife River is an aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services provider with vertical integration across the western and central United States. The company reported total revenue of 3146.0 million USD in fiscal 2025 and raised its 2026 revenue guidance, while public infrastructure funding remains an important support.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Large aggregate reserves and vertical integration that lower costs and secure supply.
  • A high share of public-sector contracting work that brings stability through economic cycles.
  • A track record of integrating acquisitions and a clear strategy to expand margins.

Weaknesses

  • EBITDA margin declined in the second quarter of 2026 because of energy costs and lower-margin contracting work.
  • Gross debt rose after recent acquisitions, which limits financial flexibility.
  • Net profit was under pressure in fiscal 2025 and the first half of 2026, with a loss over the first six months.

Opportunities

  • Federal funds not yet distributed and record DOT budgets could support contracting volumes.
  • Mid-sized, faster-growing markets offer acquisition and organic growth opportunities.
  • Rising aggregate prices and operational efficiencies could improve margins.

Threats

  • Reduced public funding or delayed projects could lower volumes.
  • Energy, labour and material costs could remain volatile.
  • Competition for bids and acquisitions could pressure prices and margins.

Risks

  • Intense competitionmedium

    Markets are fragmented and competition can lead to lower prices and higher costs.

  • Reserve permittinghigh

    Obtaining permits for new quarries can take years, and local communities may resist.

  • Customer nonpaymentmedium

    Public and private customers may delay payments in downturns, increasing the risk of uncollected receivables.

  • Acquisition integrationhigh

    Integrating acquired companies can be difficult and may lead to impairment of assets.

  • Cybersecuritymedium

    Cyberattacks or system outages could affect operations and reputation.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If federal funds and state budgets stay high, contracting volumes could keep growing.
  • Vertical integration and large reserves could support better long-term margins if aggregate prices keep rising.
  • Recent acquisitions could add volume and synergies in the coming periods.

What would break the thesis

  • EBITDA margin fell in the second quarter of 2026, which could signal persistent pressure on profitability.
  • Higher debt after acquisitions could limit flexibility in an economic slowdown.
  • If public projects are postponed, backlog could fall faster than management expects.

What to watch

  • Delivery of 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
  • Development of the contracting backlog and its expected marginsQ3 2026
  • Net leverage relative to adjusted EBITDAnext 10-K
  • Spending of remaining IIJA funds in the operating states2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

The business

Knife River Corporation is an aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services provider in the United States. Its 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves support a vertically integrated strategy, with a large share of aggregates used internally for ready-mix concrete and asphalt. The company operates 208 active aggregate sites, 135 ready-mix plants and 55 asphalt plants across 14 states as of the annual report.

Activity is split into materials (aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, liquid asphalt) and contracting services, which include highway, bridge and site work. Contracting services are largely aimed at public-sector clients, which adds stability through economic cycles. The company integrates acquisitions such as Strata in North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota into existing segments.

Knife River separated from MDU Resources on May 31, 2023 and trades on the NYSE under the symbol KNF. Its EDGE strategy, launched in 2023, focuses on expanding adjusted EBITDA margin, capital discipline and growth in mid-sized, higher-growth markets.

Segments

West

The West segment covers Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington and generated 1210.1 million USD in fiscal 2025. Revenue fell year-over-year in the first half of 2026 on lower public-agency work in Oregon and project delays in Hawaii and Alaska.

Mountain

The Mountain segment covers Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming and generated 644.0 million USD in fiscal 2025. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose sharply, mainly from contracting services and first-quarter acquisitions, while EBITDA was roughly flat.

Central

The Central segment covers Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas and generated 1004.8 million USD in fiscal 2025. It is the largest segment by revenue and benefited in 2026 from higher volumes and the Texcrete acquisition.

Market context

The US construction materials market is highly fragmented, with mostly local and regional operators, because transport costs limit delivery distance. Demand depends on public road and infrastructure spending, general economic conditions and interest rates. The company could benefit from federal funding if states keep allocating money from programs such as IIJA.

Seasonality shapes activity in the northern United States, where production and sales concentrate between May and October. Environmental and zoning approvals can slow new quarry openings, which makes already permitted reserves more valuable to incumbents.

Trends

  • Public infrastructure fundingtailwind

    DOT budgets in most of the company's states remain strong, and a significant part of IIJA formula funding has not yet been spent. If these funds turn into bid lettings, they could support contracting volumes.

  • Energy and input costsheadwind

    Energy and other input costs weighed on second-quarter 2026 EBITDA. If these costs stay high, production margins could remain under pressure.

  • Tariffsmixed

    The company did not see a material direct impact from tariffs in fiscal 2025, because most quotes include clauses that pass tariff costs to customers. The effect could grow if such clauses cannot be applied.

  • Acquisitions and organic growthtailwind

    The company invested in acquisitions and organic projects, including an aggregates expansion in South Dakota scheduled for 2027. If acquisitions are integrated well, volumes and margins could rise in coming periods.

Competitive position

The company competes with many regional, national and international operators, some with greater financial resources and others smaller and specialised. Competitive factors include price, quality, service, delivery time and proximity to the customer, and competitive pressure could lower prices or raise wage costs.

Acquisitions are also more competitive, which can raise the prices paid for new targets. The risk of losing public-project bids is real if rivals offer better terms.

  • Regional aggregates and concrete producers

    Local or regional companies competing in short-distance markets without a comparable national footprint.

  • National construction materials producers

    Larger companies with their own financial resources that compete across several regions and product lines.

  • Small specialised contracting firms

    Smaller firms with focused expertise that can win local contracts through reputation and proximity.

  • International operators

    Competitors with access to large capital that are active in certain markets and segments in the United States.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
  • Current report03 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report23 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
  • Current report04 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report21 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report18 May 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 May 2026
  • Current report05 May 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement06 Apr 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Knife River Corporation · 20 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Knife River Corporation · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Knife River Corporation · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.