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olivLaw · US equity research

Smart Sand, Inc. SND

Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) · SIC 1400 · Vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)

4.37USD−6.62% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Smart Sand is an integrated supplier of Northern White frac and industrial sand, combining mine-to-wellsite logistics with its own terminals. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported revenue of 115.1 million USD, and the company says demand stayed solid in its main basins.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) stock was 4.37 USD (−6.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 185.3 m USD, P/E 16.9 on diluted EPS of 0.26 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.43%, beta 0.77, 52-week range 2.09–5.82 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 115.1 m USD (+34.1% YoY), net income of 10.2 m USD (−52.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.25 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
185.3 m USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.9
Diluted EPS TTM 0.26 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.93%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.43%
DPS 12m 0.15
Beta (2y)
0.77
Volatility (1y) 71%
52-week range
2.095.82

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
30.0
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
4.46 – 5.53
below the lower band · %B -0.08 · band width 21.4%
SMA 50 / 200
5.12 / 4.89
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.15 / -0.08
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−18.3%−1.1%−17.2 pp—
3 months+4.5%−0.5%+5.0 pp—
6 months−11.7%+4.4%−16.1 pp—
Year to date+9.3%+12.3%−3.1 pp—
1 year+103.3%+13.5%+89.7 pp−13.2%
3 years+102.3%+76.4%+25.9 pp+17.2%
5 years+89.2%+63.7%+25.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−32.4%
19 Feb 2026 → 11 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−70.3%
20 Apr 2022 → 26 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+13.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
115.1 m USD
+34.1% YoY
Net income
10.2 m USD
−52.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.25
−53.7% YoY
net / operating
8.8% / 8.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue63.2 m91.4 m65.6 m85.8 m92.8 m86.0 m93.1 m115.1 m
Cost of revenue56.7 m77.9 m62.8 m76.8 m77.8 m74.8 m87.0 m95.2 m
Gross profit6.5 m13.5 m2.8 m9.0 m14.9 m11.2 m6.1 m19.8 m
SG&A9.7 m9.2 m9.2 m9.1 m9.1 m13.1 m10.7 m9.4 m
Operating income-4.9 m3.6 m-7.1 m-77.0 k5.4 m-2.7 m-4.9 m10.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation633.0 k618.0 k619.0 k604.0 k589.0 k578.0 k569.0 k552.0 k
Pre-tax income-5.2 m3.2 m-7.3 m-327.0 k5.1 m-3.1 m-5.0 m10.2 m
Income tax-5.1 m-541.0 k17.0 m-21.7 m2.1 m-4.3 m-1.2 m52.0 k
Net income-98.0 k3.7 m-24.2 m21.4 m3.0 m1.2 m-3.9 m10.2 m
Diluted EPS0.000.09 ≈-0.620.540.080.03 ≈-0.100.25
Operating cash flow5.8 m ≈1.0 m8.7 m-5.1 m ≈18.2 m ≈22.4 m3.0 m3.4 m ≈
Capex2.1 m ≈1.9 m3.5 m2.7 m ≈3.4 m ≈2.0 m2.2 m4.8 m ≈
Dividends paid0 ≈3.9 m7.0 k72.0 k ≈3.9 m ≈2.0 m04.1 m ≈
Share repurchases153.0 k ≈47.0 k336.0 k36.0 k ≈207.0 k ≈49.0 k1.2 m112.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 65 percentile of its own 31-quarter history (min 1.2, median 9.3, max 157.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue212.5 m233.1 m122.3 m126.6 m255.7 m296.0 m311.4 m330.2 m
Revenue YoY+54.8%+9.7%−47.5%+3.5%+101.9%+15.7%+5.2%+6.0%
Net income20.1 m31.6 m38.0 m-50.7 m-703.0 k4.6 m3.0 m1.3 m
Net income YoY−6.6%+57.3%+20.0%−233.5%unavailableunavailable−35.6%−55.0%
Diluted EPS0.500.780.94-1.21-0.020.120.080.03
Diluted EPS YoY−5.7%+56.0%+20.5%−228.7%unavailableunavailable−33.3%−62.5%
net %9.5%13.6%31.0%-40.0%-0.3%1.6%1.0%0.4%
Free cash flow-45.2 m19.1 m16.9 m21.2 m-7.3 m8.0 m10.9 m32.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
22.6 m USD
Financial debt
13.0 m USD
Net debt
-9.5 m USD
Equity
239.7 m USD
Total assets
340.0 m USD
Debt / equity
0.05x
Current ratio
1.76x
ROE
0.6%
ROA
0.4%
FCF margin
9.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
296.0 m
2024
311.4 m
2025
330.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
254.4 m
2024
266.5 m
2025
292.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
41.6 m
2024
44.8 m
2025
37.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
38.7 m
2024
38.2 m
2025
40.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-1.5 m
2024
3.0 m
2025
-4.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.5 m
2024
2.6 m
2025
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.0 m ≈
2024
5.6 m ≈
2025
-2.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
-2.3 m
2024
252.0 k
2025
-5.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-6.9 m
2024
-2.7 m
2025
-6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
4.6 m
2024
3.0 m
2025
1.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.12
2024
0.08
2025
0.03

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
39.0 m
2024
39.1 m
2025
39.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
—
2024
0.10
2025
0.15

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
6.1 m
2024
1.6 m
2025
22.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
23.2 m
2024
41.0 m
2025
30.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
26.8 m
2024
25.0 m
2025
31.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
61.9 m
2024
75.5 m
2025
88.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
255.1 m
2024
236.7 m
2025
223.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
5.9 m
2024
5.1 m
2025
4.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
346.3 m
2024
341.5 m
2025
340.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
16.0 m
2024
17.0 m
2025
9.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
15.7 m
2024
3.6 m
2025
4.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
3.4 m
2024
9.1 m
2025
8.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
54.5 m
2024
43.2 m
2025
49.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
104.0 m
2024
97.7 m
2025
100.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
242.3 m †
2024
243.8 m †
2025
239.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
31.0 m
2024
17.9 m
2025
44.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
23.0 m
2024
7.0 m
2025
11.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
8.0 m ≈
2024
10.9 m ≈
2025
32.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-22.9 m
2024
-6.9 m
2025
-10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-7.5 m
2024
-15.5 m
2025
-12.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
3.9 m
2025
5.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
422.0 k
2025
628.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-248.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-55.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
-48.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-62.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
-49.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
199.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
13.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
57.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
28.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
47.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
12.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
34.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
330.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
463.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
43 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
17 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
59 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
185.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
189.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
17.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
24.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
18.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 67 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.37 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 185.3 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
185.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 11 Aug 2026
verified 1709derived 132

Score by group

  • Valuation67
  • Returns94
  • Quality51
  • Balance sheet66
  • Growth74

Estimated value range

Low
2.00
USD per share
Mid
3.94
USD per share
High
5.05
USD per share
Price: 4.37 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -9.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -11.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.97 – 8.58 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA2.00 – 5.05 (Mid 3.94)
    7 companies used · median multiple 16.9x · quartiles 8.8x – 21.6x
    CMP, KNF, LEU, MLM, TTAM, USLM, VMC
  • Peers: P/E4.88 – 8.58 (Mid 6.86)
    10 companies used · median multiple 26.5x · quartiles 18.8x – 33.1x
    CMP, HL, IPI, KNF, LEU, MLM, SQM, TTAM, USLM, VMC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)1.97 – 2.65 (Mid 2.26)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 67/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality2.6%27 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality2.7%41 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality330.2%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth8.9%74 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.4x63 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.7x74 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation16.9x80 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation18.7x29 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation18.7%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns6.3%90 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns28.9%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial74/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns94/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation67/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

SMART SAND, INC. (SND). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 330.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.0%; net margin 2.7%; ROE 4.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.4x.

The estimated value range is 2.00–5.05 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.94 USD, the price of 4.37 USD leaves a potential of -9.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -11.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 330.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.9%
  • Current ratio: 1.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 16.9x
  • FCF yield: 18.7%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.3%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 28.9%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 2.6%
  • EV/EBITDA: 18.7x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
16.9x
vertical median 26.5x
below median (−36.3%)
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
vertical median 16.9x
above median (+10.7%)
P/S
0.5x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−85.7%)
P/B
0.8x
vertical median 2.4x
below median (−67.0%)
ROE
4.4%
vertical median 6.3%
below median (−30.7%)
Net margin
2.7%
vertical median 8.0%
below median (−66.3%)
EBIT margin
2.0%
vertical median 8.6%
below median (−76.3%)
Revenue YoY
6.0%
vertical median 8.6%
below median (−30.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.4x
vertical median 1.1x
below median (−61.2%)
Dividend yield
3.4%
vertical median 0.4%
above median (+765.9%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.39.6 bn14.716.8%31.9%+8.6%−11% / +20%
VMCVulcan Materials Company38.2 bn35.212.9%13.8%+7.1%+0% / +39%
SQMChemical & Mining Co Of Chile Inc15.1 bn24.014.3%15.1%−39.4%−11% / +15%
HLHecla Mining Company10.0 bn26.714.5%21.0%+53.0%−11% / +200%
IONRIoneer Ltd7.2 bn—-4.3%—unavailable−44% / −35%
USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals Inc3.5 bn26.620.0%35.1%+17.3%+1% / +191%
KNFKnife River Corporation3.5 bn26.38.0%4.0%+8.5%−17% / +4%
TTAMTitan America SA2.6 bn14.220.8%11.1%+1.8%−12% / unavailable
UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc.1.9 bn—-14.1%-100.0%−15.6%−50% / −10%
LEUCentrus Energy Corp1.3 bn42.28.1%10.2%+1.5%−64% / +85%
CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc.976.5 m54.27.2%1.4%+11.3%+22% / −4%
GAUGaliano Gold Inc.540.4 m—-12.7%-6.5%+93.6%−14% / +220%
IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc.418.0 m17.14.8%8.0%+17.1%+24% / +52%
SNDSmart Sand, Inc.185.3 m16.94.4%2.7%+6.0%+103% / +102%
ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company183.9 m—-74.5%-337.5%+406.8%−66% / −70%
ATLXAtlas Lithium Corporation52.1 m—-103.0%-33,954.4%−86.1%−65% / −93%
LGOLargo Inc.27.7 m—-46.4%-62.3%−12.0%−67% / −84%
ELVRElevra Lithium Limited——-54.2%-131.8%+11.2%−40% / unavailable
TECKTeck Resources Limited——5.5%13.0%+18.7%+50% / +71%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SND from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
2.57
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
4.54
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
6.83
Total return 61% · Per year 61%
3 years
2.72
Total return -29% · Per year -11%
5.38
Total return 35% · Per year 10%
8.85
Total return 117% · Per year 30%
5 years
2.88
Total return -20% · Per year -4%
6.38
Total return 67% · Per year 11%
11.48
Total return 191% · Per year 24%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 1.35
  • Net margin± 0.94
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.74
  • Annual dilution± 0.08

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Smart Sand is an integrated supplier of Northern White frac and industrial sand, combining mine-to-wellsite logistics with its own terminals. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported revenue of 115.1 million USD, and the company says demand stayed solid in its main basins.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Long-lived reserves located close to the processing plants and rail loading facilities.
  • Access to all Class I rail lines in the United States and Canada, which gives competitive delivery options.
  • Low debt and available liquidity, giving financial flexibility for investment and capital returns.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue depends on a few large customers in the natural gas sector, which raises concentration risk.
  • Prices and volumes are sensitive to drilling activity, which moves with oil and gas prices.
  • The IPS business, though growing, is still small and does not yet offset the sector's volatility.

Opportunities

  • Growth in gas demand for LNG exports and data centers could support long-term volumes.
  • Expanding IPS into glass, foundry and building products could reduce dependence on the oil sector.
  • Appalachian and Ohio terminals could open new markets for Northern White sand.

Threats

  • Cheaper regional sand could draw customers who do not need Northern White performance.
  • Tariffs could raise costs for customers in Canada and Mexico and reduce their activity.
  • A fall in oil and gas prices could reduce completed wells and sand demand.

Risks

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    A significant part of revenue comes from a few customers, and losing one could affect results.

  • Drilling activity volatilityhigh

    Demand depends on well completion activity, which follows oil and natural gas prices.

  • Competition from regional sandmedium

    Cheaper regional alternatives could limit pricing and market share in some basins.

  • Trade policymedium

    Tariffs on exports to Canada or Mexico could change customer demand and selling prices.

  • Environmental regulationlow

    Changes to environmental rules or wetland permit requirements could raise permitting and operating costs.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If demand in the Appalachian and Bakken basins stays strong, volumes and margins could keep improving, as the second quarter results suggest.
  • Growing natural gas demand for exports and data centers could provide a long-term base for growth.
  • A low-debt balance sheet and an ongoing capital return programme could support the company's financial flexibility.

What would break the thesis

  • If oil and gas prices fall, well completion activity could slow and volumes could follow.
  • Customer concentration could make results vulnerable to a cut in orders from one major client.
  • Margins could come under pressure if regional sand prices stay low or if transport costs rise.

What to watch

  • Delivery of 2026 sales volume growth against the company's outlook2026
  • Capital expenditure and free cash flow against the annual guidance2026
  • IPS growth and its share of total salesnext 10-K
  • Effects of the finance leadership transition on reportingQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Smart Sand, Inc. (NASDAQ: SND) is an integrated frac and industrial sand company that supplies complete mine-to-wellsite proppant and logistics solutions. It produces low-cost Northern White sand, used as a proppant to enhance hydrocarbon recovery in hydraulic fracturing and in industrial applications 1. It runs three active mines, at Oakdale and Blair in Wisconsin and Ottawa in Illinois, with a combined annual processing capacity of about 10.0 million tons 1.

Besides sand, the company offers logistics through in-basin transloading terminals and its proprietary SmartSystems wellsite proppant storage solutions 2. Its core customers are exploration and production companies and oilfield service firms, and it sells under short- and long-term contracts or in the spot market 1.

The customer base is concentrated: in 2025, EQT Corporation and EOG Resources accounted for 27.7% and 10.9% of total revenue, respectively 1. The Industrial Products Solutions business, which sells sand for industrial uses, is still small but is expected to grow 1.

Segments

Sand segment

The Sand segment covers the Oakdale, Ottawa and Blair mines and processing plants, along with a network of transloading terminals in the Bakken, Appalachian and other basins 1. The IPS business, which supplies sand to industries such as glass and foundry, sits within this segment 1.

SmartSystems segment

SmartSystems provides portable wellsite proppant storage and management solutions, including SmartDepot silos, the SmartBelt conveyor and the SmartPath system, under flexible contract terms 1. The aim is to reduce trucking and diesel use at the customer's site 2.

Market context

Frac sand demand declined moderately in 2025, with North American proppant demand down about 2% compared with 2024, but overall demand stayed relatively stable thanks to longer laterals and more sand per linear foot 1. The company expects a moderate increase in 2026, and LNG export growth and data center power demand could support demand over the longer term 1.

Supply of high-quality Northern White sand is limited to western Wisconsin and small areas of Minnesota, Illinois and Missouri, which makes large contiguous reserves a key constraint 1. Tariff policy and oil and gas price swings remain sources of uncertainty 2.

Trends

  • Growth in natural gas demandtailwind

    Expanding LNG export capacity and data center power demand could support completion activity for gas wells, particularly in Appalachia and Canada 3.

  • Longer lateral wellstailwind

    Longer laterals and more sand per linear foot raise proppant use per well, which supports volumes 1.

  • Regional sand and consolidationmixed

    Cheaper regional sand and the closure of coarser-deposit mines have reduced Northern White capacity among competitors, which could favour efficient operators 1.

  • Tariff and oil price uncertaintyheadwind

    Shifts in trade policy and tensions in the Middle East or Venezuela could move oil and gas prices and, in turn, well completion activity 2.

Competitive position

The proppant market is highly competitive, with many large and small producers across North American sand regions, several of which also offer wellsite storage and delivery solutions 1. The company cites its low cost, low debt, logistics infrastructure and patented SmartSystems as advantages 1.

Some competitors may have greater financial or natural resources than Smart Sand 1. Competitive position depends on production cost, rail access and reserve quality, and regional sand remains a cheaper alternative in some basins 1.

  • Badger Mining Corporation

    Frac sand producer named as a main competitor in the annual report.

  • U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc.

    Supplier of frac and industrial sand, named among the main competitors.

  • Iron Oak Energy Solutions, LLC

    Wellsite proppant unloading and storage solutions provider named as a competitor.

  • Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.

    Energy infrastructure company named among competitors in the proppant business.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Smart Sand, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Smart Sand, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Smart Sand, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.