olivLaw · US equity research
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. SQM
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) · SIC 1400 · Vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)
SQM is a Chilean producer of lithium, iodine, specialty plant nutrition and potassium, headquartered in Santiago. In 2025 lithium generated half of revenue, but prices fell sharply, and the company entered a joint venture with Codelco for the Salar de Atacama that changes its business structure for 2025-2060.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) stock was 57.56 USD (+7.17% on the day), with market capitalisation 15.1 bn USD, P/E 24.0 on diluted EPS of 2.40 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.47%, beta 0.96, 52-week range 46.27–95.31 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 52.98 – 65.15
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 20.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 66.41 / 75.25
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.96 / -3.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.6% | −1.1% | −11.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.8% | −0.5% | −17.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −38.4% | +4.4% | −42.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −16.3% | +12.3% | −28.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +24.9% | +13.5% | +11.3 pp | −13.2% |
| 3 years | +15.6% | +76.4% | −60.8 pp | +29.6% |
| 5 years | −11.0% | +63.7% | −74.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 9-quarter history (min 5.8, median 22.9, max 78.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 10.7 bn | 7.5 bn | 4.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +11.2% | +5.0% | −14.2% | −6.5% | +57.5% | +274.2% | −30.3% | −39.4% |
| Net income | 427.7 m | 439.8 m | 278.1 m | 164.5 m | 585.5 m | 3.9 bn | 923.2 m | 685.1 m |
| Net income YoY | +53.7% | +2.8% | −36.8% | −40.8% | +255.9% | +567.2% | −76.4% | −25.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.63 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.63 | 2.10 | 13.68 | 3.23 | 2.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +53.7% | +2.8% | 0.0% | −62.6% | +236.7% | +549.7% | −76.4% | −25.8% |
| net % | 19.8% | 19.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 20.5% | 36.5% | 12.4% | 15.1% |
| Free cash flow | 616.1 m | 280.1 m | 105.6 m | -140.0 m | 357.8 m | 3.2 bn | -1.3 bn | 302.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 1.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 5.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 11.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.51x
- ROE
- 14.2%
- ROA
- 6.2%
- FCF margin
- 6.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 10.7 bn | 7.5 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 560.1 m | 482.9 m | 1.1 bn | 5.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Research & development | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2020verified |
| Operating income | 433.7 m | 302.5 m | 927.3 m | 5.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 201.4 m | 203.9 m | 214.2 m | 244.5 m | 280.8 m | 342.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 635.0 m ≈ | 506.4 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 76.9 m | 82.2 m | 84.6 m | 86.7 m | 138.4 m | 197.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 390.6 m | 238.5 m | 841.2 m | 5.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 974.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 110.0 m | 70.2 m | 249.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 282.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 278.1 m | 164.5 m | 585.5 m | 3.9 bn | 923.2 m | 685.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.67 | 0.63 | 2.10 | 13.68 | 3.23 | 2.40 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 263.2 m | 278.2 m | 285.6 m | 285.6 m | 285.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.25 | 0.84 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2021derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 588.5 m | 509.1 m | 1.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | 399.1 m | 365.2 m | 654.1 m | 1.1 bn | 907.2 m | 606.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 983.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 34.7 m | 42.0 m | 34.6 m | 967.0 k | 958.0 k | 948.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 188.4 m | 178.4 m | 179.7 m | 166.3 m | 155.9 m | 168.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 7.2 bn | 10.8 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 205.8 m | 203.9 m | 279.7 m | 374.8 m | 449.6 m | 471.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 199.0 k | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2020verified |
| Long-term debt | 69.1 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2020verified |
| Current liabilities | 776.8 m | 475.9 m | 991.7 m | 3.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 263.2 m | 263.2 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2021verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 427.0 m | 182.2 m | 822.5 m | 4.1 bn | -196.6 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 321.3 m | 322.2 m | 464.7 m | 905.2 m | 1.1 bn | 971.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 105.6 m ≈ | -140.0 m ≈ | 357.8 m ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | -1.3 bn ≈ | 302.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -485.5 m | -167.1 m | -1.0 bn | -909.4 m | -1.5 bn | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 105.9 m | -94.1 m | 1.2 bn | -2.0 bn | 66.3 m | 282.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 329.8 m | 222.0 m | 571.7 m | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 67.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 55 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 15.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Balance sheet76
- Growth65
- Quality51
- Returns44
- Valuation44
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.08 – 79.42 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E40.59 – 79.42 (Mid 63.46)10 companies used · median multiple 26.5x · quartiles 16.9x – 33.1xCMP, HL, IPI, KNF, LEU, MLM, SND, TTAM, USLM, VMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)11.08 – 14.91 (Mid 12.71)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 55/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.1% | 82 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 44.2% | 20 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 16.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.5% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.4x | 60 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.0x | 60 (vs peers) | 15% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.0% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.4% | 6 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 22.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality51/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
Memo
CHEMICAL & MINING CO OF CHILE INC (SQM). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.5 bn USD in 2024; YoY growth -39.4%; net margin 15.1%; ROE 14.3%.
The estimated value range is 25.84–47.16 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 38.09 USD, the price of 57.56 USD leaves a potential of -33.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -51.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 15.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 16.5%
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 22.2%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 44.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 4.5%
- FCF yield: 2.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 39.6 bn | 14.7 | 16.8% | 31.9% | +8.6% | −11% / +20% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | 38.2 bn | 35.2 | 12.9% | 13.8% | +7.1% | +0% / +39% |
| SQMChemical & Mining Co Of Chile Inc | 15.1 bn | 24.0 | 14.3% | 15.1% | −39.4% | +25% / +16% |
| HLHecla Mining Company | 10.0 bn | 26.7 | 14.5% | 21.0% | +53.0% | −11% / +200% |
| IONRIoneer Ltd | 7.2 bn | — | -4.3% | — | unavailable | −44% / −35% |
| USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals Inc | 3.5 bn | 26.6 | 20.0% | 35.1% | +17.3% | +1% / +191% |
| KNFKnife River Corporation | 3.5 bn | 26.3 | 8.0% | 4.0% | +8.5% | −17% / +4% |
| TTAMTitan America SA | 2.6 bn | 14.2 | 20.8% | 11.1% | +1.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -14.1% | -100.0% | −15.6% | −50% / −10% |
| LEUCentrus Energy Corp | 1.3 bn | 42.2 | 8.1% | 10.2% | +1.5% | −64% / +85% |
| CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc. | 976.5 m | 54.2 | 7.2% | 1.4% | +11.3% | +22% / −4% |
| GAUGaliano Gold Inc. | 540.4 m | — | -12.7% | -6.5% | +93.6% | −14% / +220% |
| IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc. | 418.0 m | 17.1 | 4.8% | 8.0% | +17.1% | +24% / +52% |
| SNDSmart Sand, Inc. | 185.3 m | 16.9 | 4.4% | 2.7% | +6.0% | +48% / +124% |
| ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company | 183.9 m | — | -74.5% | -337.5% | +406.8% | −66% / −70% |
| ATLXAtlas Lithium Corporation | 52.1 m | — | -103.0% | -33,954.4% | −86.1% | −65% / −93% |
| LGOLargo Inc. | 27.7 m | — | -46.4% | -62.3% | −12.0% | −67% / −84% |
| TECKTeck Resources Limited | — | — | 5.5% | 13.0% | +18.7% | +50% / +71% |
| ELVRElevra Lithium Limited | — | — | -54.2% | -131.8% | +11.2% | −40% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SQM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 40.82 Total return -29% · Per year -29% | 71.84 Total return 25% · Per year 25% | 107.75 Total return 87% · Per year 87% |
| 3 years | 48.42 Total return -16% · Per year -6% | 95.00 Total return 65% · Per year 18% | 155.17 Total return 170% · Per year 39% |
| 5 years | 57.43 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 125.64 Total return 118% · Per year 17% | 223.44 Total return 288% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 23.75
- Net margin± 16.63
- Annual revenue growth± 12.40
- Annual dilution± 1.40
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Aug 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026), 6-K (27 Jul 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026).
In brief
SQM is a Chilean producer of lithium, iodine, specialty plant nutrition and potassium, headquartered in Santiago. In 2025 lithium generated half of revenue, but prices fell sharply, and the company entered a joint venture with Codelco for the Salar de Atacama that changes its business structure for 2025-2060 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong position in lithium and iodine, with integrated operations in northern Chile and expanded production capacity.
- Diversification across several product lines, which reduces dependence on a single product.
- Access to capital on international markets and recent bond issuance.
Weaknesses
- Average realized lithium prices have fallen sharply, and revenue depends heavily on this market.
- Cost of sales includes payments to Corfo, which rise with lithium prices.
- Control over the Salar de Atacama passes to Codelco after 2030.
Opportunities
- A recovery in lithium prices, if demand continues to exceed supply.
- Copper exploration in partnership with Ivanhoe Electric.
- Expansion of lithium hydroxide capacity and the Mt. Holland project.
Threats
- Failure to obtain an environmental permit after 2030 could halt lithium extraction from the Salar de Atacama.
- Fiscal risk in Chile and litigation linked to the joint venture could affect results.
- Fluctuations in the Chilean peso against the dollar affect production costs.
Risks
- Environmental permit after 2030high
The joint venture must obtain a new environmental permit for 2031-2060; without it, extraction could stop 1.
- Dependence on lithium pricehigh
Revenue and payments to Corfo fluctuate with the lithium price, making results sensitive to the market 1.
- Joint venture litigationmedium
A challenge was rejected by the Supreme Court in January 2026, but the risk of further challenges could influence the structure of the venture 1.
- Chilean taxationmedium
The Chilean government could impose additional taxes on mining companies, including lithium producers 1.
- Exchange ratelow
Part of the costs are in Chilean pesos, and exchange rate movements can affect margins 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If lithium prices keep rising in 2026, lithium revenue could return to a higher level.
- Diversification across iodine, nutrition and lithium offers a steadier base than dependence on one product.
- Expansion of lithium hydroxide capacity and Mt. Holland could add new volumes.
What would break the thesis
- Lithium prices have fallen sharply over three years, and the announced recovery is still uncertain.
- Control over the Salar de Atacama passes to Codelco after 2030, which could reduce SQM's influence over key assets.
- Potassium and total sales volumes are expected to fall, which could reduce revenue in the short term.
What to watch
- Lithium price developments against management's expectations2026
- Obtaining the environmental permit for 2031-20602027
- Completion of the Kwinana refinery and lithium hydroxide capacity ramp-up2027
- Results of copper exploration with Ivanhoe Electricnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Aug 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026), 6-K (27 Jul 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026).
The business
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. is a stock corporation organized in Chile in 1968, listed on the NYSE under the symbol SQM since 1993 1. The company produces nitrates and iodine from caliche deposits in northern Chile and, from the Salar de Atacama, lithium carbonate and hydroxide, potassium chloride and potassium sulfate. In 2025 revenues were 4576.2 million USD, slightly up from 2024 1.
Since 27 December 2025 lithium operations in the Salar de Atacama run through Nova Andino Litio SpA, a joint venture in which Codelco holds slightly more than 50% of shares 1. During 2025-2030 SQM controls operations, while from 2031-2060 control passes to Codelco. The current environmental permit expires on 31 December 2030, and obtaining a new one is a key condition 1.
The structure has three divisions: SQM Lithium Chile, SQM Lithium International (lithium outside Chile, including the Mt. Holland project in Australia) and SQM Iodine-Plant Nutrition, covering iodine and specialty plant nutrition 1.
Segments
Lithium and derivatives
The largest segment, with 2288.2 million USD revenue in 2025 and volumes of about 257.9 thousand metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent 1. The average realized price fell to 9174 USD per ton in 2025 after a 70% decline over three years, although management expects higher prices in 2026 1.
Iodine and derivatives
A segment with 1042.8 million USD revenue in 2025, based on production at Nueva Victoria and Pedro de Valdivia, with near-stable volumes and growing demand especially for X-ray contrast media 1.
Market context
The lithium market was marked by oversupply that pushed prices down for three years, but by the end of 2025 management observed a reversal of the trend, driven by demand growth above expectations and some supply disruptions 1. The specialty plant nutrition market grew about 3% in 2025 and slightly exceeded 2020 levels, while the iodine market grew 0.6% 1.
Potassium volumes fell 53% in 2025 in line with the strategy of prioritizing lithium, and management estimates total sales volumes could decrease about 20% in 2026 1. The potassium outlook depends on market prices and the long-term supply agreement with the new joint venture 1.
Trends
- Lithium price recoverytailwind
Management expects higher prices in 2026 than in 2025, if demand continues to exceed supply, which could restore margins in the lithium segment 1.
- Oversupply in lithiumheadwind
Prices have fallen sharply in recent years because of oversupply, and if this persists, pressure on revenue could continue 1.
- Shift toward lithium and away from potassiummixed
The company is cutting potassium production to focus on lithium, which could raise lithium's share of revenue but reduces revenue diversification 1.
- Capacity expansion and coppermixed
Capacity investment and copper exploration with Ivanhoe Electric could open new revenue sources, but both remain at an early stage 1.
Competitive position
The sources do not explicitly identify competitors; this analysis relies on statements in the 20-F and does not cover other industry producers 1.
In lithium, the partnership with Codelco and the Mt. Holland project with Wesfarmers define the competitive position, but the sources do not detail other direct competitors 1.
- Codelco
Chilean state-owned mining company, partner and co-owner of the Nova Andino Litio joint venture for the Salar de Atacama since 2025.
- Wesfarmers Limited
50% partner in the Covalent Lithium joint venture for the Mt. Holland project in Western Australia.
- Ivanhoe Electric
Partner in a copper exploration collaboration over an area in northern Chile, with a possible later joint venture.
- Hancock Prospecting
Shareholder in Azure Minerals, with which SQM acquired the Andover project in Western Australia.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)22 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. · 22 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.