olivLaw · US equity research
MindForge Inc. MF
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. · SIC 7370 · Vertical: Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370)
MindForge Inc. provides digital promotion, risk assessment and bundled benefit services to Chinese insurance companies using artificial intelligence technology. Revenue in fiscal 2026 fell by about half to 14.9 million USD, and the company reported a net loss of 33.1 million USD, making client trends the main thing to watch.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MindForge Inc. (MF) stock was 8.30 USD (−20.42% on the day), with market capitalisation 172.5 m USD, beta -0.47, 52-week range 2.88–83.50 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.31 – 12.64
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.31 · band width 66.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.42 / 20.82
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.90 / -0.99
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −42.0% | −2.0% | −40.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.3% | −2.2% | −9.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −11.7% | +4.3% | −16.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −83.4% | +10.6% | −94.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −84.8% | +10.5% | −95.3 pp | −12.5% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +73.7% | unavailable | −6.2% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 86.7 m | 94.3 m | 51.6 m | 29.7 m | 14.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +8.8% | −45.3% | −42.5% | −49.9% |
| Net income | -49.0 k | 205.9 k | -748.5 k | -2.7 m | -33.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −463.5% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | 0.16 | -11.86 | -9.32 | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −7,512.5% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -0.1% | 0.2% | -1.5% | -9.2% | -222.9% |
| Free cash flow | 360.1 k | -285.8 k | -1.4 m | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 12.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 20.6 m USD
- Total assets
- 38.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.14x
- ROE
- -167.2%
- ROA
- -110.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 86.7 m | 94.3 m | 51.6 m | 29.7 m | 14.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 85.2 m | 92.7 m | 50.9 m | 29.4 m | 14.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.5 m | 1.6 m | 694.3 k | 251.7 k | -80.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | — | — | — | — | 812.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 126.6 k | 153.9 k | -872.9 k | -3.1 m | -14.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.8 k | 2.0 k | 7.3 k | 11.8 k | 213.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 128.4 k ≈ | 155.9 k ≈ | -865.6 k ≈ | -3.1 m ≈ | -14.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 1.3 k | 12.9 k | 33.5 k | 697 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 223.5 k | 244.0 k | -606.1 k | -3.0 m | -33.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 272.5 k | 38.1 k | 142.4 k | -236.0 k | -51.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -49.0 k | 205.9 k | -748.5 k | -2.7 m | -33.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | 0.16 | -11.86 | -9.32 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 23.1 m | 1.5 m | 63.1 k | 291.8 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.5 m | 1.3 m | 4.8 m | 11.2 m | 12.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 264.8 k | 396.3 k | 227.0 k | 485 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | — | 15.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 4.6 m | 16.7 m | 15.1 m | 20.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 3.7 k | 7.5 k | 5.8 m | 6.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | 5.7 k | 5.3 k | 5.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 4.9 m | 16.8 m | 21.0 m | 38.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 573.6 k | 718.1 k | 201.4 k | 73.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 138.4 k | 701.6 k | 389.7 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Oct 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 3.8 m | 2.9 m | 1.5 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 3.8 m | 2.9 m | 2.0 m | 18.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 910.9 k † | 1.1 m † | 13.9 m | 19.0 m | 20.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 27.0 m | 20.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Oct 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 363.1 k | -283.2 k | -1.4 m | -2.8 m | -2.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.9 k | 2.6 k | 12.8 k | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Oct 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | 360.1 k ≈ | -285.8 k ≈ | -1.4 m ≈ | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Oct 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.9 k | -2.6 k | -9.5 m | 3.8 m | -409.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 421.2 k | 156.9 k | 14.3 m | 5.4 m | 3.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 51.1% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 172.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
51% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 51.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | -0.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -98.2% | 8 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -46.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | -49.9% | 0 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial20/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality4/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MindForge Inc. (MF). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 14.9 m USD in 2026; YoY growth -49.9%; net margin -222.9%; ROE -167.2%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 51.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: -0.5%
- EBIT margin: -98.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -46.0%
- Revenue growth (YoY): -49.9%
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF margin, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | 3,442.7 bn | 14.6 | 44.3% | 50.0% | +15.1% | −13% / +111% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | 82.3 bn | 18.9 | 203.7% | 64.6% | +70.0% | −59% / +555% |
| FLUTFlutter Entertainment plc | 14.2 bn | — | -9.1% | -5.0% | +16.6% | −61% / −48% |
| FDSFactset Research Systems Inc | 12.1 bn | 23.5 | 25.5% | 21.5% | +6.7% | +23% / −25% |
| SNAPSnap Inc | 10.2 bn | — | -15.6% | -4.9% | +10.6% | −23% / −57% |
| NIQNIQ Global Intelligence plc | 6.0 bn | — | -65.3% | -8.0% | +5.7% | +29% / unavailable |
| SIFYSify Technologies Ltd | 5.8 bn | — | -4.1% | -2.0% | +9.0% | +20% / +53% |
| WIXWix.com Ltd. | 4.4 bn | 91.5 | — | 2.5% | +13.2% | −16% / −21% |
| MGNIMagnite, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 21.9 | 19.6% | 22.5% | +6.9% | +55% / +182% |
| GRNDGrindr Inc. | 2.4 bn | 27.6 | 108.7% | 18.7% | +27.6% | +9% / +108% |
| DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | 2.1 bn | 34.0 | 5.8% | 8.2% | +13.9% | +29% / −59% |
| BZKanzhun Limited | 1.7 bn | 41.6 | 16.0% | 33.1% | +17.3% | −21% / +6% |
| WBWeibo Corporation | 1.6 bn | 3.8 | 12.1% | 25.6% | +0.1% | −35% / −36% |
| DJTTrump Media & Technology Group Corp. | 1.2 bn | — | -78.9% | -28,867.7% | +1.8% | −61% / −74% |
| HSTMHealthstream Inc | 949.7 m | 45.4 | 6.0% | 6.6% | +4.3% | +29% / +30% |
| NXDRNextdoor Holdings, Inc | 934.4 m | — | -7.2% | -11.1% | +4.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| CEVACeva, Inc. | 788.9 m | — | -3.6% | -9.5% | +2.5% | +30% / +29% |
| BMBLBumble Inc. | 718.8 m | — | -94.7% | -58.0% | −9.9% | +69% / −57% |
| SABRSabre Corporation | 702.2 m | 1.1 | — | 25.1% | +1.0% | +8% / −51% |
| YALAYalla Group Limited | 413.9 m | 6.8 | 19.6% | 43.3% | +0.7% | −20% / −6% |
| ZIPZiprecruiter, Inc. | 321.9 m | 12.9 | — | 6.2% | −5.3% | −5% / −66% |
| MFMindForge Inc. | 172.5 m | — | -167.2% | -222.9% | −49.9% | −85% / unavailable |
| SANGSangoma Technologies Corp | 150.7 m | — | -1.9% | -2.1% | −4.3% | −13% / +55% |
| HCATHealth Catalyst, Inc. | 119.7 m | — | -118.1% | -90.6% | +1.5% | −47% / −78% |
| DOYUDouYu International Holdings Ltd | 111.1 m | — | -6.8% | -5.3% | −6.7% | −48% / −48% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MindForge Inc. provides digital promotion, risk assessment and bundled benefit services to Chinese insurance companies using artificial intelligence technology. Revenue in fiscal 2026 fell by about half to 14.9 million USD 1, and the company reported a net loss of 33.1 million USD 1, making client trends the main thing to watch.
SWOT
Strengths
- The client base includes many major insurers, and the proprietary risk assessment technology has a stated high accuracy 1.
- A proprietary network of auto service providers allows competitive pricing on packages sold to insurers 1.
- The information platform for brokers is considered a distinct advantage, with no direct alternative identified by the company 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue has dropped sharply in recent years, and dependence on a single segment remains very high 1.
- The net loss deepened considerably in fiscal 2026, partly due to share-based compensation and a change in the fair value of warrants 1.
- The holding structure and the China-based operating entities mean investors do not hold the operating assets directly 1.
Opportunities
- Digitization of the insurance sector could expand interest in the company's artificial intelligence solutions 1.
- Expansion to retail consumers is described as a longer-term plan, if it is realized 1.
- Strategic acquisitions in insurance technology are presented as a possible way to accelerate growth 1.
Risks
- Client losseshigh
A large number of promotion clients ended their relationships in fiscal 2026, including some of the most important ones, reducing business volume 1.
- Dependence on one segmenthigh
Digital promotion accounts for almost all revenue, so any decline in that segment directly affects results 1.
- Large net lossmedium
The net loss and share-based compensation expenses increased in fiscal 2026, which could put pressure on liquidity 1.
- Chinese regulatory riskmedium
Changes in Chinese public policy or regulation could affect demand and the legal structure of a company operating through China-based entities 1.
- Holding and VIE structuremedium
Investors hold shares in a Cayman holding company rather than directly in the operating entities, which may limit their rights in certain scenarios 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If digitization of insurance advances, demand for the company's technology and promotion channels could gradually return 1.
- The Magic Mirror algorithm and the service provider network could support new contracts with insurers if their budgets recover 1.
- The name and symbol change could mark a strategic refocus on insurance technology, if it translates into results 1.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue fell by about half in fiscal 2026 and the net loss deepened, which could signal a weakening competitive position 1.
- Near-total dependence on digital promotion leaves the company exposed to any further cut in client budgets 1.
- The holding structure and Chinese policy add uncertainties that foreign investors cannot directly control 1.
What to watch
- Trend in the number of digital promotion clients and revenue from that segmentNext annual report
- Stability of the net loss and share-based compensation expenses2027
- Any strategic acquisitions announced in insurance technology2027
- Changes in Chinese government policies affecting the insurance sectorNext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company conducts its operations through its operating entities in China, notably MF Beijing, MindForge Suzhou and JZSC Technology, and has focused since 2018 on value-added services based on artificial intelligence for the insurance sector 1. Its clients are insurance carriers and brokers, and the current client base includes more than 300 city-level insurers that use its products daily 1. Investors hold shares in a Cayman holding company, not direct interests in the operating entities 1.
The company changed its name from U-BX Technology Ltd. to MindForge Inc. and its trading symbol from UBXG to MF, changes effective July 15, 2026, subject to approval by Cayman Islands authorities 1. The rebrand comes while the core business is shrinking, so it is better read as a strategic repositioning than as visible growth in the numbers 1.
The revenue model is based on commissions for clicks and views, on risk assessment reports delivered to insurers, and on the sale of auto service codes, all billed monthly or on delivered volume 1.
Segments
Digital promotion
This is the dominant segment, accounting for 96% of revenue in fiscal 2026 1. Revenue fell about 45%, from 25.9 million USD to 14.3 million USD, due to fewer clients and lower business volume from those that stayed 1.
Magic Mirror risk assessment
The proprietary Magic Mirror algorithm estimates payout risk for auto insurance and generates reports by vehicle model and age 1. Revenue from this segment fell sharply in fiscal 2026, mainly because insurers cut budgets, although the model is stated to reach an accuracy of about 77.26% 1.
Value-added bundled benefits
This segment sells auto service codes that insurers pass to their clients, and it almost disappeared in fiscal 2026 1.
Market context
The company operates in China's auto and property insurance market, where the digitization of the sector could create more interest in technology and online promotion channels 1. Current conditions, however, show a narrower digital promotion market, as insurers' demand has fallen with the economic slowdown 1.
The company states that the overall economic downturn reduced client activity and transaction volumes, which directly weighed on demand for its services 1. If the economy stabilizes, demand could gradually recover, but the sources give no quantified estimate of that recovery 1.
Trends
- Digitization of insurancetailwind
The company considers that future digitization of the insurance sector could increase insurers' interest in artificial intelligence and online promotion channels 1.
- Economic contractionheadwind
The slowdown in economic activity led to fewer promotion orders and lower budgets for risk assessment, eroding revenue 1.
- Chinese government regulationmixed
Chinese government policies could affect demand for the company's services, and unfavorable changes could have a negative impact on results 1.
- Client attritionheadwind
The number of digital promotion clients fell, and some who had worked with the company ended their relationships, including some of its largest clients 1.
Competitive position
The company says no other provider runs a similar information platform focused exclusively on auto insurance, but it acknowledges exposure to competition within its industry 1. Its competitiveness depends on the quality of its solutions, the scope of its services and its ability to develop new products 1.
The stated advantage rests on its proprietary technology and its network of vehicle maintenance providers, which allow competitive pricing on bundled packages 1. Competitive pressure is heightened because insurers have reduced budgets for outside services 1.
- Other insurance technology providers in China
The source refers to competition in the sector without naming specific competitors in the US market.
- Social media and online promotion platforms
The company uses these channels for promotion, which implies dependence on third parties for traffic.
- Vehicle maintenance service providers
Competition in service codes depends on the ability to negotiate prices with local providers.
- Auto risk assessment firms
Assessment models compete with insurers' in-house solutions and other predictive systems.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Annual report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Nov 2025
- Annual report (foreign issuer)24 Oct 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / MindForge Inc. · 26 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.