olivLaw · US equity research
The Timken Company TKR
Ball & Roller Bearings · SIC 3562 · Vertical: Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 356x)
Timken designs, makes and services precision bearings and industrial motion products, with a presence in more than 40 countries and a diversified customer base. In the first half of 2026 the company reported higher sales, but it trimmed its profit outlook because of impairments, as demand recovers under tariff pressure and European restructuring.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Timken Company (TKR) stock was 106.63 USD (−7.81% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.3 bn USD, P/E 26.4 on diluted EPS of 4.04 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.33%, beta 1.25, 52-week range 74.33–145.32 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+4.7% YoY), net income of 93.8 m USD (+35.4% YoY), diluted EPS 1.34 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 107.88 – 117.62
- below the lower band · %B -0.13 · band width 8.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 116.48 / 117.52
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.63 / -1.71
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.1% | −1.1% | −10.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.8% | −0.5% | −18.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.9% | +4.4% | −15.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +26.7% | +12.3% | +14.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +39.8% | +13.5% | +26.2 pp | +7.3% |
| 3 years | +46.7% | +76.4% | −29.7 pp | +40.5% |
| 5 years | +46.6% | +63.7% | −17.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 748.5 m | 781.6 m | 813.1 m | 808.1 m | 785.7 m | 837.3 m | 861.6 m | 825.0 m |
| SG&A | 187.5 m | 184.8 m | 189.7 m | 186.4 m | 187.4 m | 201.2 m | 205.9 m | 200.1 m |
| Operating income | 113.0 m | 144.0 m | 147.8 m | 139.4 m | 109.4 m | 168.6 m | 84.8 m | 166.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 56.2 m | 55.1 m | 57.2 m | 58.6 m | 59.2 m | 58.9 m | 59.7 m | 58.9 m |
| Interest expense | 28.0 m | 26.5 m | 29.8 m | 27.3 m | 26.7 m | 24.3 m | 26.2 m | 25.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 90.8 m | 118.3 m | 116.4 m | 107.5 m | 73.8 m | 142.9 m | 57.9 m | 140.4 m |
| Income tax | 15.7 m | 26.9 m | 30.7 m | 33.2 m | 7.9 m | 37.0 m | 20.7 m | 40.7 m |
| Net income | 71.2 m | 78.3 m | 78.5 m | 69.3 m | 62.3 m | 98.2 m | 28.9 m | 93.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 0.99 | 0.89 ≈ | 1.40 | 0.41 | 1.34 |
| Operating cash flow | 178.6 m | 58.6 m | 111.3 m ≈ | 201.1 m ≈ | 183.3 m | 39.3 m | 107.1 m ≈ | 256.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 53.6 m | 35.2 m | 33.1 m ≈ | 37.3 m ≈ | 42.6 m | 38.8 m | 26.6 m ≈ | 34.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 23.9 m | 25.1 m | 24.4 m ≈ | 24.4 m ≈ | 24.4 m | 25.3 m | 25.0 m ≈ | 24.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 9.1 m | 23.1 m | 22.6 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 11.7 m | 28.0 m | 20.0 m ≈ | 63.8 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 93 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 7.1, median 14.7, max 39.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +19.2% | +5.8% | −7.3% | +17.6% | +8.8% | +6.1% | −4.1% | +0.2% |
| Net income | 302.8 m | 362.1 m | 284.5 m | 369.1 m | 407.4 m | 394.1 m | 352.7 m | 288.4 m |
| Net income YoY | +48.9% | +19.6% | −21.4% | +29.7% | +10.4% | −3.3% | −10.5% | −18.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.86 | 4.71 | 3.72 | 4.79 | 5.48 | 5.47 | 4.99 | 4.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +49.6% | +22.0% | −21.0% | +28.8% | +14.4% | −0.2% | −8.8% | −17.6% |
| net % | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Free cash flow | 219.9 m | 409.5 m | 456.0 m | 239.0 m | 285.4 m | 357.4 m | 305.7 m | 406.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 364.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.9 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 6.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.57x
- Current ratio
- 2.82x
- ROE
- 9.1%
- ROA
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- 8.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 533.8 m | 580.5 m | 637.1 m | 740.8 m | 752.0 m | 748.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 454.9 m | 513.1 m | 606.9 m | 657.1 m | 611.1 m | 540.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 167.1 m | 167.8 m | 164.0 m | 201.3 m | 221.8 m | 230.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 622.0 m ≈ | 680.9 m ≈ | 770.9 m ≈ | 858.4 m ≈ | 832.9 m ≈ | 770.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 67.6 m | 58.8 m | 74.6 m | 110.7 m | 125.1 m | 110.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 396.3 m | 476.6 m | 550.9 m | 530.5 m | 494.2 m | 416.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 103.9 m | 95.1 m | 133.9 m | 122.5 m | 118.9 m | 98.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 284.5 m | 369.1 m | 407.4 m | 394.1 m | 352.7 m | 288.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.72 | 4.79 | 5.48 | 5.47 | 4.99 | 4.11 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 76.4 m | 77.0 m | 74.3 m | 72.1 m | 70.8 m | 70.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.39 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 320.3 m | 257.1 m | 331.6 m | 418.9 m | 373.2 m | 364.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 581.1 m | 626.4 m | 699.6 m | 671.7 m | 664.6 m | 689.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 841.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 03 May 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 741.4 m | 668.8 m | 765.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 351.4 m | 430.0 m | 403.9 m | 367.2 m | 321.7 m | 353.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 130.7 m | 53.8 m | 49.0 m | 605.6 m | 13.0 m | 38.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 848.0 m | 896.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 820.5 m | 922.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 577.6 m | 387.3 m | 463.8 m | 545.2 m | 475.7 m | 554.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 121.6 m | 148.3 m | 178.4 m | 187.8 m | 170.0 m | 148.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 456.0 m ≈ | 239.0 m ≈ | 285.4 m ≈ | 357.4 m ≈ | 305.7 m ≈ | 406.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -153.5 m | -173.8 m | -573.3 m | -806.5 m | -304.6 m | -148.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -331.1 m | -269.3 m | 206.8 m | 347.1 m | -194.8 m | -437.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 87.0 m | 92.2 m | 91.7 m | 94.0 m | 96.1 m | 98.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 49.3 m | 93.0 m | 211.6 m | 250.9 m | 40.5 m | 57.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation73
- Balance sheet51
- Quality62
- Growth3
- Returns66
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 18.27 – 223.14 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)81.48 – 147.91 (Mid 106.14)WACC 8.3% · starting FCFF 519.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 0.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA130.58 – 223.14 (Mid 151.96)14 companies used · median multiple 15.6x · quartiles 13.7x – 22.0xDCI, ESAB, FLS, GGG, GHM, GRC, GTES, IR, ITT, NDSN, PPIH, RBC, XYL, ZBRA
- Peers: P/E90.64 – 135.02 (Mid 108.38)21 companies used · median multiple 26.8x · quartiles 22.5x – 33.4xDCI, EFXT, ESAB, FLS, GGG, GRC, GTES, HSAI, IEX, IR, ITT, ITW, NDSN, PPIH, RBC, RRX, TAYD, TWIN, XYL, ZBRA, ZWS
- Dividend discount (DDM)18.27 – 24.56 (Mid 20.95)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.0% | 48 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.9% | 46 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 156.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.6% | 5 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 28 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.1x | 56 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 26.4x | 56 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 11.6x | 89 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.1% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.0% | 44 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 22.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth3/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns66/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
TIMKEN CO (TKR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.2%; net margin 5.9%; ROE 8.9%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.
The estimated value range is 86.06–141.47 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 107.26 USD, the price of 106.63 USD leaves a potential of 0.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 0.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 156.5%
- Current ratio: 2.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 11.6x
- FCF yield: 6.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 22.5%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.0x
Versus the vertical median
Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 356x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 36 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc | 83.4 bn | 26.1 | 101.7% | 19.4% | +0.9% | +18% / +21% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | 32.3 bn | 23.7 | 13.4% | 17.2% | +5.7% | +5% / +18% |
| XYLXylem Inc. | 23.2 bn | 22.3 | 10.1% | 11.9% | +5.5% | −28% / −4% |
| SYMSymbotic Inc. | 22.7 bn | 780.5 | 1.8% | 0.3% | +25.7% | −55% / −29% |
| NDSNNordson Corporation | 18.4 bn | 33.4 | 17.8% | 18.6% | +3.8% | +39% / +41% |
| ITTItt Inc. | 18.0 bn | 39.4 | 11.5% | 8.9% | +8.5% | +9% / +86% |
| IEXIdex Corp | 17.2 bn | 32.4 | 13.3% | 14.6% | +5.8% | +34% / +16% |
| ZBRAZebra Technologies Corporation | 15.7 bn | 26.8 | 16.5% | 9.8% | +8.3% | +32% / +40% |
| RBCRbc Bearings Incorporated | 15.1 bn | 42.7 | 10.5% | 17.5% | +14.3% | +7% / +85% |
| RRXRegal Rexnord Corp | 11.5 bn | 50.1 | 3.4% | 3.8% | −1.6% | +19% / +45% |
| GGGGraco Inc. | 11.2 bn | 22.5 | 20.4% | 22.4% | +5.8% | −15% / −14% |
| FLSFlowserve Corp | 10.3 bn | 40.7 | 11.1% | — | unavailable | +14% / +112% |
| DCIDonaldson Company, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 22.2 | 28.2% | 11.7% | +5.3% | −5% / +41% |
| ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | 7.5 bn | 26.3 | 17.7% | 15.9% | +8.3% | −5% / +53% |
| TKRTimken Co | 7.3 bn | 26.4 | 8.9% | 5.9% | +0.2% | +40% / +47% |
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation Ltd. | 6.1 bn | 17.0 | 10.6% | 10.4% | +1.0% | +7% / +100% |
| ESABESAB Corporation | 4.9 bn | 31.7 | 6.7% | 5.1% | +3.7% | −30% / +2% |
| CECOCeco Environmental Corp. | 2.7 bn | — | -2.6% | -3.4% | +38.8% | −13% / +136% |
| EFXTEnerflex Ltd | 2.5 bn | 39.3 | 6.0% | 2.5% | +6.5% | +46% / +377% |
| OUSTOuster, Inc. | 2.4 bn | — | -11.3% | -20.4% | +52.5% | +46% / +555% |
| HSAIHesai Group | 2.0 bn | 30.4 | 6.9% | 14.4% | +52.1% | −32% / +23% |
| GRCThe Gorman-Rupp Company | 2.0 bn | 26.3 | 17.0% | 10.2% | +3.4% | +59% / +134% |
| CHRNChronoscale Holdings Corporation | 1.8 bn | — | -42.0% | -70.3% | +459.4% | +155% / −54% |
| GHMGraham Corporation | 816.0 m | 67.1 | 7.5% | 4.5% | +16.9% | +21% / +275% |
| TWINTwin Disc, Incorporated | 370.7 m | 11.9 | 16.3% | 8.0% | +11.9% | +64% / +86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TKR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 61.91 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 109.66 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 165.46 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 55.49 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 111.04 Total return 8% · Per year 3% | 184.61 Total return 78% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 49.75 Total return -49% · Per year -13% | 112.43 Total return 12% · Per year 2% | 205.97 Total return 102% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 27.76
- Net margin± 19.43
- Annual revenue growth± 16.57
- Annual dilution± 1.63
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Timken designs, makes and services precision bearings and industrial motion products, with a presence in more than 40 countries and a diversified customer base. In the first half of 2026 the company reported higher sales, but it trimmed its profit outlook because of impairments, as demand recovers under tariff pressure and European restructuring.
SWOT
Strengths
- Timken has strong technical recognition in tapered roller bearings and a broad portfolio of industrial brands, supported by application engineering and maintenance services.
- A diversified customer base and a large aftermarket share give steadier revenue through economic cycles.
- The company keeps a relatively solid balance sheet, with controlled net debt and a consistent dividend policy.
Weaknesses
- The industry is capital intensive, and demand downturns can force cutbacks and costly impairments.
- Dependence on SBQ steel and logistics exposes margins to cost swings that cannot always be passed on to customers.
- Net income fell sharply in the first half of 2026 because of impairments and higher operating costs.
Opportunities
- Acquisitions and expansion in automatic lubrication and automation could add recurring revenue and better margins.
- Demand from energy, electrification and infrastructure could lift volumes in both segments if investment keeps growing.
- Portfolio pruning, including sales of less profitable assets, could structurally improve margins.
Threats
- Trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions could raise import and export costs and limit access to some markets.
- Pressure from global competitors could force price cuts and customer losses.
- Currency swings can affect results, since a large part of sales is in currencies other than the US dollar.
Risks
- Pricing pressurehigh
Intense competition and contracts with OEM customers could limit the company's ability to offset cost increases through higher prices.
- Impairments and restructuringhigh
If demand falls in the industries served, the company could record further impairments and restructuring costs that weigh on profitability.
- Raw material and logistics costsmedium
Higher steel or freight prices could compress margins if they cannot be fully passed on to customers.
- Currency and financing riskmedium
A stronger dollar or weaker local currencies could reduce reported revenue, and higher interest rates could make refinancing debt more expensive.
- Geopolitical and trade riskmedium
Sanctions, tariffs and tensions between countries where the company operates could limit production, exports and access to assets in some jurisdictions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If industry demand keeps recovering, higher sales and the effect of recent acquisitions could support faster profit growth in the second half of the year.
- The aftermarket and service portfolio could provide steadier revenue than pure manufacturing, especially if Industrial Motion margins hold near second-quarter levels.
- A steady pace of debt reduction and a consistent dividend program could support financial flexibility in difficult periods.
What would break the thesis
- If impairments recur, net income could stay below expectations even with rising sales.
- Competitive pressure from large global manufacturers could limit price increases and margin expansion.
- Tariffs and trade uncertainty could keep raising costs, and the benefit of refunds could prove temporary.
What to watch
- Completion of the sale of belts assets to Gates and its effect on the Industrial Motion segmentQ3 2026
- Quarterly results and the adjusted EBITDA margin trend, especially in Engineered BearingsQ3 2026
- Updated 2026 guidance on EPS and revenue growthnext 10-K
- Demand trends in energy, automation and construction and their effect on backlog2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, plus related services. The company was founded in 1899 and has a global footprint of 116 manufacturing facilities and service centers, 29 technology and engineering centers and 74 distribution centers and warehouses, with approximately 19000 employees 1. Net sales were 4581.8 million USD in 2025 1, and no single customer accounts for more than 5% of total net sales 1.
The business runs two reportable segments: Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. Timken sells through internal sales teams and authorized distributors, and a meaningful part of revenue comes from the aftermarket, giving recurring income over the life of equipment 12. Backlog at December 31 2025 stood at 2213.7 million USD, of which about 92% was scheduled for delivery within 12 months 1.
In 2026 the company bought the assets of Bijur Delimon, a maker of automated lubrication systems, and agreed to sell certain assets of its belts business to Gates 23. These moves point to a focus on profitable growth and higher-value segments.
Segments
Engineered Bearings
The Engineered Bearings segment covers tapered, spherical, cylindrical, ball and plain bearings under the Timken, GGB and Fafnir brands, sold to equipment makers and industrial distributors 1. Sales were 3018.1 million USD in 2025 1 and 807.0 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, up 3.8% 3.
Industrial Motion
The Industrial Motion segment includes precision drives, automatic lubrication systems, linear motion, chains, belts, couplings and seals under brands such as Philadelphia Gear, Cone Drive and Lovejoy 12. In the second quarter of 2026 sales were 453.9 million USD, up 14.6% year on year, helped by the Bijur Delimon acquisition 3.
Market context
The bearing and industrial motion market is highly competitive and consolidated, with constant price pressure from OEM customers and distributors 1. Demand depends on sectors such as wind energy, agriculture, construction, automotive, rail and automation, each with its own cycle 1.
For 2026 the company expects revenue to rise by about 5.5% at the midpoint, supported by higher demand, better pricing and favorable currency effects 3. The actual pace will depend on industrial investment and on how customers manage their inventories 1.
Trends
- Recovery in industrial demandtailwind
Higher demand across most end sectors could support Timken volumes and margins in Industrial Motion, especially if industrial investment keeps growing 23.
- Tariffs and import costsmixed
Tariffs raised production costs and weighed on margins in 2025, while IEEPA tariff refunds gave a one-off benefit in 2026; the future path depends on trade policy 123.
- Automation and electrificationtailwind
The shift toward automation, electrification and precision systems opens opportunities for the company's drives and lubrication systems, but it can also change customer preferences and product cycles 13.
- Raw material and logistics costsheadwind
Prices for SBQ steel and freight can swing sharply; the company tries to pass increases on through surcharges, but with a lag that could compress margins 1.
Competitive position
Timken competes mainly on total value proposition: design, performance, application engineering, quality, price and global technical service 1. Its named rivals in bearings include SKF Group and Schaeffler Group, alongside many domestic and foreign manufacturers 1.
In industrial motion products the competition comes from a diverse group of manufacturers, and price pressure stays high 1. A rival that cut prices could force Timken to give up volume or margin to keep customers 1.
- SKF Group
Named in the filing as a direct rival in anti-friction bearings 1.
- Schaeffler Group
Bearing and industrial component maker named in the filing as a competitor 1.
- Domestic and foreign bearing manufacturers
A diverse group of national and overseas anti-friction bearing makers competing on price and service 1.
- Industrial motion product manufacturers
A diverse group of makers of drives, lubrication and chain products that compete in the Industrial Motion segment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- A Profit Plunge Masks Timken’s (TKR) Real Momentum StoryYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events
- Current report06 Jul 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The Timken Company · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The Timken Company · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Timken Company · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.