olivLaw · US equity research
Winnebago Industries, Inc. WGO
Motor Homes · SIC 3716 · Vertical: Transportation equipment (SIC 371x)
Winnebago Industries builds towable and motorhome RVs and boats under the Winnebago, Grand Design, Newmar, Chris-Craft and Barletta brands, plus lithium-ion batteries through Lithionics. In fiscal 2026 net revenues fell to 2703.9 million USD as weak consumer demand, high interest rates and inflation held back unit volumes, and the company is trying to strengthen its position through innovation and capacity reduction.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) stock was 34.09 USD (+8.02% on the day), with market capitalisation 969.7 m USD, P/E 28.2 on diluted EPS of 1.21 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.14%, beta 1.14, 52-week range 22.67–49.85 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 645.1 m USD (−17.0% YoY), net income of 9.7 m USD (−29.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.34 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 74.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.91 – 33.98
- above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 52.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 27.53 / 32.45
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.55 / 0.61
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +36.4% | −1.1% | +37.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.6% | −0.5% | +7.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.7% | +4.4% | +2.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −15.9% | +12.3% | −28.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.6% | +13.5% | −19.2 pp | −16.6% |
| 3 years | −47.0% | +76.4% | −123.4 pp | −14.6% |
| 5 years | −53.1% | +63.7% | −116.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 29 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 625.6 m | 620.2 m | 775.1 m | 777.3 m | 702.7 m | 657.4 m | 698.7 m | 645.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 548.8 m | 537.1 m | 669.1 m | 678.1 m | 613.7 m | 571.8 m | 603.8 m | 564.4 m |
| Gross profit | 76.8 m | 83.1 m | 106.0 m | 99.2 m | 89.0 m | 85.6 m | 94.9 m | 80.7 m |
| SG&A | 72.1 m | 69.7 m | 70.3 m | 73.7 m | 69.8 m | 68.4 m | 66.5 m | 57.6 m |
| Operating income | -900.0 k | 7.8 m | 30.2 m | 20.1 m | 13.8 m | 11.8 m | 23.0 m | 17.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 15.3 m | 15.0 m | 15.1 m | 15.2 m | 15.2 m | 15.0 m | 14.8 m | 15.0 m |
| Interest expense | 5.8 m | 6.8 m | 6.7 m | 6.6 m | 5.5 m | 5.8 m | 5.0 m | 4.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | -6.7 m | -400.0 k | 23.9 m | 13.3 m | 8.4 m | 5.4 m | 18.0 m | 12.6 m |
| Income tax | -1.5 m | 0 | 6.3 m | -400.0 k | 2.9 m | 600.0 k | 3.5 m | 2.9 m |
| Net income | -5.2 m | -400.0 k | 17.6 m | 13.7 m | 5.5 m | 4.8 m | 14.5 m | 9.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.18 | -0.02 | 0.62 | 0.49 ≈ | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.51 | 0.34 ≈ |
| Operating cash flow | -16.7 m | -10.5 m ≈ | -25.3 m ≈ | 181.4 m | 25.4 m | -24.8 m ≈ | 25.6 m ≈ | 142.5 m |
| Capex | 10.0 m | 8.4 m ≈ | 10.8 m ≈ | 10.2 m | 5.6 m | 4.3 m ≈ | 6.9 m ≈ | 7.3 m |
| Dividends paid | 10.2 m | 9.6 m ≈ | 9.5 m ≈ | 9.6 m | 10.3 m | 9.8 m ≈ | 10.0 m ≈ | 9.8 m |
| Share repurchases | 33.6 m | 20.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 100.0 k | 1.7 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 37-quarter history (min 4.3, median 14.5, max 285.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | ⚠ 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −1.5% | +18.6% | — | +36.6% | −29.6% | −14.8% | −5.9% | −3.4% |
| Net income | 111.8 m | 61.4 m | 281.9 m | 390.6 m | 215.9 m | 13.0 m | 25.7 m | 34.5 m |
| Net income YoY | +9.2% | −45.0% | — | +38.6% | −44.7% | −94.0% | +97.7% | +34.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.52 | 1.84 | 8.28 | 11.84 | 6.23 | 0.44 | 0.91 | 1.21 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +9.3% | −47.7% | — | +43.0% | −47.4% | −92.9% | +106.8% | +33.0% |
| net % | 5.6% | 2.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| Free cash flow | 92.9 m | 238.1 m | 192.4 m | 312.6 m | 211.3 m | 98.9 m | 89.5 m | 144.6 m |
The series breaks before 2021: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 29 Aug 2026
- Cash
- 181.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 443.3 m USD
- Net debt
- 261.9 m USD
- Equity
- 1.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.36x
- Current ratio
- 2.17x
- ROE
- 2.8%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- 5.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 650.4 m | 929.3 m | 586.1 m | 433.5 m | 365.1 m | 350.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| SG&A | 228.6 m | 316.4 m | 267.7 m | 280.0 m | 285.8 m | 262.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 407.4 m | 583.5 m | 300.7 m | 100.2 m | 57.2 m | 66.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | 46.9 m | 58.6 m | 60.6 m | 60.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | — | 347.6 m ≈ | 158.8 m ≈ | 117.8 m ≈ | 126.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 40.4 m | 41.3 m | 20.5 m | 21.1 m | 25.9 m | 20.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 367.5 m | 514.7 m | 279.2 m | 38.4 m | 30.1 m | 44.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 85.6 m | 124.1 m | 63.3 m | 25.4 m | 4.4 m | 9.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 281.9 m | 390.6 m | 215.9 m | 13.0 m | 25.7 m | 34.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 8.28 | 11.84 | 6.23 | 0.44 | 0.91 | 1.21 | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 34.1 m | 33.0 m | 35.4 m | 29.5 m | 28.3 m | 28.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.66 | 0.81 | 1.12 | 1.27 | 1.37 | 1.41 | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 434.6 m | 282.2 m | 309.9 m | 330.9 m | 174.0 m | 181.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 253.8 m | 254.1 m | 178.5 m | 183.5 m | 192.0 m | 153.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 341.5 m | 525.8 m | 470.6 m | 438.7 m | 396.4 m | 404.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 996.7 m | 988.7 m | 792.2 m | 778.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 191.4 m | 276.2 m | 327.3 m | 338.9 m | 333.0 m | 317.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 348.1 m | 484.2 m | 514.5 m | 484.2 m | 484.2 m | 484.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 390.4 m | 472.4 m | 502.0 m | 479.0 m | 456.9 m | 435.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 180.0 m | 217.5 m | 146.9 m | 144.7 m | 129.3 m | 174.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | 0 | 59.1 m | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 528.6 m | 545.9 m | 592.4 m | 637.1 m | 540.5 m | 443.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 407.3 m | 522.1 m | 396.0 m | 404.7 m | 327.1 m | 359.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 929.7 m | 864.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 1.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 237.3 m | 400.6 m | 294.5 m | 143.9 m | 128.9 m | 168.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 44.9 m | 88.0 m | 83.2 m | 45.0 m | 39.4 m | 24.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 192.4 m ≈ | 312.6 m ≈ | 211.3 m ≈ | 98.9 m ≈ | 89.5 m ≈ | 144.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -33.0 m | -315.7 m | -170.0 m | -45.9 m | -34.8 m | -18.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -62.3 m | -237.3 m | -96.8 m | -77.0 m | -251.0 m | -142.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 16.2 m | 23.8 m | 33.2 m | 36.8 m | 38.9 m | 39.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 47.6 m | 214.3 m | 55.1 m | 74.5 m | 53.7 m | 1.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 44 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 969.7 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet35
- Valuation50
- Quality61
- Growth0
- Returns77
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.70 – 114.34 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)62.96 – 114.34 (Mid 81.48)WACC 7.8% · starting FCFF 160.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA9.70 – 37.04 (Mid 21.66)11 companies used · median multiple 7.0x · quartiles 4.3x – 10.4xAPTV, BWA, CAAS, CPS, FSS, GGR, GNTX, LEA, MOD, OSK, PHIN
- Peers: P/E13.10 – 26.25 (Mid 19.36)16 companies used · median multiple 16.0x · quartiles 10.8x – 21.7xAPTV, BWA, CAAS, DAN, FSS, GM, GNTX, GTX, LEA, MGA, MLR, OSK, PCAR, PHIN, THO, VC
- Dividend discount (DDM)18.53 – 24.92 (Mid 21.25)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 44/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.3% | 45 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.3% | 49 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 419.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -42.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 14 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 28.2x | 21 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 9.8x | 38 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.3% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 27.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES, INC. (WGO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-29.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.7 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -3.4%; net margin 1.3%; ROE 2.8%; net debt/EBITDA 2.1x.
The estimated value range is 15.82–31.64 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 21.46 USD, the price of 34.09 USD leaves a potential of -37.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -58.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 419.1%
- Current ratio: 2.2x
- FCF yield: 14.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 27.6%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -42.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.1x
- Interest coverage: 3.2x
- P/E (TTM): 28.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Transportation equipment (SIC 371x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | 1,522.6 bn | 424.6 | 3.8% | 3.1% | −2.9% | −10% / +60% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | 78.0 bn | 20.6 | 6.1% | 2.1% | −1.3% | +26% / +192% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | 55.9 bn | 20.2 | 13.7% | 9.5% | −15.5% | +1% / +16% |
| LILi Auto Inc. | 23.5 bn | 144.8 | 1.6% | 1.0% | −18.8% | −37% / −69% |
| RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc. | 20.5 bn | — | -55.0% | -45.9% | +8.4% | −17% / −16% |
| MGAMagna International Inc. | 18.4 bn | 22.4 | 6.9% | 2.0% | −1.9% | +34% / +22% |
| BWABorgwarner Inc. | 10.1 bn | 21.5 | 8.2% | 3.4% | +1.6% | +17% / +50% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| OSKOshkosh Corporation | 8.7 bn | 17.5 | 11.0% | 4.6% | −2.9% | +12% / +47% |
| NIONIO Inc. | 8.2 bn | — | -302.6% | -17.1% | +38.9% | −40% / −55% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | 7.2 bn | 24.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | +17.1% | +3% / +71% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −11% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Co | 5.2 bn | 41.3 | 11.4% | 3.6% | +23.1% | −39% / +100% |
| GNTXGentex Corporation | 4.4 bn | 11.0 | 16.4% | 15.5% | +9.6% | −9% / −32% |
| THOThor Industries, Inc. | 4.4 bn | 25.0 | 4.2% | 1.8% | +0.3% | −20% / −15% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PHINPhinia Inc. | 2.6 bn | 14.5 | 12.2% | 5.2% | +2.4% | +33% / +181% |
| DANDana Incorporated | 2.6 bn | 2.4 | 71.4% | 14.6% | −3.0% | +6% / +80% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| WGOWinnebago Industries, Inc. | 969.7 m | 28.2 | 2.8% | 1.3% | −3.4% | −6% / −47% |
| MLRMiller Industries, Inc. | 588.6 m | 34.6 | 4.1% | 2.2% | −37.2% | +34% / +31% |
| CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 391.6 m | — | — | -2.0% | +0.4% | −29% / +24% |
| KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc. | 287.8 m | — | -30.5% | -107.4% | −31.5% | −63% / −88% |
| LOTLotus Technology Inc. | 217.2 m | — | — | -89.4% | −43.8% | −75% / −97% |
| CVGICommercial Vehicle Group, Inc. | 138.9 m | — | -7.5% | -1.4% | −10.3% | +93% / −48% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WGO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 18.27 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 32.46 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 49.12 Total return 48% · Per year 48% |
| 3 years | 14.51 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 29.30 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 49.12 Total return 56% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 11.52 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 26.44 Total return -7% · Per year -1% | 49.12 Total return 65% · Per year 10% |
- Exit P/E± 7.32
- Net margin± 5.13
- Annual revenue growth± 4.63
- Annual dilution± 0.43
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Winnebago Industries builds towable and motorhome RVs and boats under the Winnebago, Grand Design, Newmar, Chris-Craft and Barletta brands, plus lithium-ion batteries through Lithionics. In fiscal 2026 net revenues fell to 2703.9 million USD 1 as weak consumer demand, high interest rates and inflation held back unit volumes, and the company is trying to strengthen its position through innovation and capacity reduction 2.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Dependence on discretionary consumer demand makes sales volatile during periods of economic uncertainty 1.
- Operating margins in the Towable and Marine segments declined in fiscal 2026 on lower volumes 1.
- Concentration of dealer floorplan financing with one lender exposes the company to that lender's decisions 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Sensitivity to discretionary spendinghigh
Demand for RVs and boats depends on consumer confidence and economic conditions, which can lead to delayed or cancelled purchases 1.
- Reliance on dealer financinghigh
One lender holds a significant share of financed dealer inventory, and a limit on its financing could affect sales 1.
- Repurchase obligationsmedium
If dealers default, the company may be required to repurchase products, which could create substantial costs 1.
- Limited suppliersmedium
Certain components such as chassis and engines come from a small group of suppliers, and losing one could delay production 1.
- Demand forecastinglow
Production relies on demand estimates six to twelve months ahead, and misjudging demand could affect results 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Motorhome transformation continues, margins could recover gradually, and the company notes improving profitability momentum in the fourth quarter 2.
- Rising Barletta share in pontoons and growth in portable power could open new revenue sources 2.
- A lower leverage ratio, which fell to 2.2x, could give the company more financial flexibility 2.
What would break the thesis
- Annual sales declined and lower volumes weighed on margins in the Towable and Marine segments 1.
- Discretionary demand remains under pressure from interest rates, inflation and energy prices, which could prolong weakness 1.
- Dependence on one lender for dealer financing and repurchase obligations could add risk 1.
What to watch
- Operating margin trend in the Towable RV segmentQ1 2027
- Effect of reduced production capacity on costs2027
- Dealer inventory levels and RV demand trendsnext 10-K
- Impact of tariff policy and supplier recoveries2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Winnebago Industries is a North American manufacturer of outdoor lifestyle products used mainly for leisure travel and outdoor recreation 1. Operations are organized into three reportable segments: Towable RV, Motorhome RV and Marine 1. RV and marine products are sold mainly through independent dealers in the US and Canada, with over 750 physical locations, and foreign sales were under 10% of net revenues in each of the past three years 1.
Segments
Towable RV
The segment includes travel trailers and fifth wheels under the Winnebago and Grand Design brands, with 27004 units delivered in fiscal 2026 1. Net revenues were 1050.8 million USD, and operating margin fell because of lower volumes and a shift toward lower price-point models 1.
Market context
Trends
- Financing costs and interest ratesheadwind
High interest rates and more expensive credit could discourage buyers and lead dealers to cut inventory, which would weigh on sales if rate relief does not arrive 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and energy pricesheadwind
Conflicts in the Middle East raised global energy prices, and the company notes this could reduce discretionary spending and demand for RV and marine products 1.
- Tariff policymixed
The company received supplier recoveries for past tariff costs and applied price adjustments, but the tariff environment remains dynamic and could affect material costs 1.
- Motorhome segment recoverytailwind
Operational transformation at the Motorhome segment has lowered costs and improved margins, and the company expects its financial contribution to build gradually in coming years 2.
Competitive position
The RV and marine markets are highly competitive, with many manufacturers selling products that compete directly with Winnebago's 1. Some competitors are much larger, especially in towables, giving them more purchasing power and financial resources 1. The company relies on brand strength, product differentiation and after-sale service to compete 1.
- Larger towable RV manufacturers
The source does not name them but says some competitors are significantly larger than Winnebago in towables.
- Motorhome manufacturers
The source mentions many manufacturers selling competing motorhome products without naming them.
- Boat manufacturers
The source refers to competitors in the boat market without identifying them.
- Dealers carrying rival brands
Many dealers sell several competing lines, which can shift their commercial focus.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Proxy statement03 Nov 2026
- Current report23 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report21 Oct 2026
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report25 Jun 2026
- Current report25 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report25 Mar 2026
- Current report25 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-08-29 · SEC / Winnebago Industries, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Winnebago Industries, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.