olivLaw · US equity research
Blue Bird Corporation BLBD
Truck & Bus Bodies · SIC 3713 · Vertical: Transportation equipment (SIC 371x)
Blue Bird Corporation is the largest independent maker of school buses in the US and Canada, with a strong range of alternative-powered buses (propane, gasoline, electric). In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 net sales were 517.2 million USD and Adjusted EBITDA 71.4 million USD, both supported by the Micro Bird acquisition. The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance, so margin and pricing trends are worth watching closely.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) stock was 60.99 USD (+5.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.9 bn USD, P/E 7.4 on diluted EPS of 8.23 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.92, 52-week range 46.59–81.50 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 517.2 m USD (+29.9% YoY), net income of 185.3 m USD (+408.2% YoY), diluted EPS 5.27 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 63.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 54.90 – 59.34
- above the upper band · %B 1.37 · band width 7.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 58.56 / 63.33
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / -0.53
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.9% | −1.1% | +8.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.7% | −0.5% | −20.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.2% | +4.4% | −10.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +29.8% | +12.3% | +17.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.2% | +13.5% | +6.6 pp | −16.6% |
| 3 years | +215.7% | +76.4% | +139.3 pp | −14.6% |
| 5 years | +179.3% | +63.7% | +115.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 350.2 m | 313.9 m | 358.9 m | 398.0 m | 409.4 m | 333.1 m | 352.6 m | 517.2 m |
| Cost of revenue | 290.6 m | 253.6 m | 288.0 m | 312.1 m | 323.0 m | 261.9 m | 282.0 m | 413.8 m |
| Gross profit | 59.6 m | 60.3 m | 70.9 m | 85.9 m | 86.4 m | 71.2 m | 70.6 m | 103.4 m |
| SG&A | 34.0 m | 27.3 m | 37.1 m | 35.9 m | 36.1 m | 33.6 m | 31.5 m | 40.7 m |
| Operating income | 25.6 m | 33.0 m | 33.7 m | 50.1 m | 50.3 m | 37.7 m | 39.1 m | 62.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.9 m | 3.9 m | 3.9 m ≈ | 4.0 m ≈ | 3.9 m | 4.0 m | 4.1 m ≈ | 8.7 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 2.0 m | 1.9 m | 1.8 m | 1.7 m | 1.7 m | 1.6 m | 1.5 m | 2.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 26.1 m | 35.6 m | 33.6 m | 49.2 m | 51.1 m | 37.9 m | 36.6 m | 197.0 m |
| Income tax | 6.6 m | 8.7 m | 9.1 m | 12.4 m | 13.7 m | 9.1 m | 9.1 m | 10.2 m |
| Net income | 24.7 m | 28.7 m | 26.0 m | 36.5 m | 36.5 m | 30.8 m | 29.3 m | 185.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.73 ≈ | 0.86 | 0.79 | 1.12 | 1.12 ≈ | 0.94 | 0.90 | 5.27 |
| Operating cash flow | 55.4 m | 26.4 m | 27.8 m ≈ | 56.9 m ≈ | 65.1 m | 36.6 m | 47.8 m ≈ | 31.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 5.1 m | 4.6 m | 9.0 m ≈ | 4.6 m ≈ | 4.7 m | 5.5 m | 7.9 m ≈ | 9.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 877.0 k | 1.4 m | 3.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 5.5 m | 2.4 m | 198.0 k ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 9.6, median 20.7, max 66.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 879.2 m | 684.0 m | 800.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +3.5% | −0.6% | −13.7% | −22.2% | +17.1% | +41.5% | +18.9% | +9.9% |
| Net income | 30.8 m | 24.3 m | 12.2 m | -289.0 k | -45.8 m | 23.8 m | 105.5 m | 127.7 m |
| Net income YoY | +7.0% | −21.2% | −49.9% | −102.4% | unavailable | unavailable | +343.3% | +21.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.08 | 0.90 | 0.45 | -0.01 | -1.48 | 0.74 | 3.16 | 3.88 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +45.9% | −16.7% | −50.0% | −102.2% | unavailable | unavailable | +327.0% | +22.8% |
| net % | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | -0.0% | -5.7% | 2.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% |
| Free cash flow | 16.2 m | 20.2 m | -15.5 m | -66.5 m | -30.9 m | 111.4 m | 95.8 m | 153.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 229.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 90.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -139.0 m USD
- Equity
- 255.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 625.3 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.35x
- Current ratio
- 1.74x
- ROE
- 61.6%
- ROA
- 22.2%
- FCF margin
- 10.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 879.2 m | 684.0 m | 800.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 783.0 m | 611.9 m | 764.1 m | 993.9 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 96.2 m | 72.1 m | 36.5 m | 138.9 m | 256.2 m | 303.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Research & development | 6.4 m | 5.2 m | 6.1 m | 6.6 m | 9.4 m | 15.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| SG&A | 74.2 m | 65.6 m | 77.2 m | 87.2 m | 116.8 m | 136.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | 22.0 m | 6.5 m | -40.7 m | 51.7 m | 139.3 m | 167.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 14.4 m | 13.4 m | 14.1 m | 16.0 m | 14.8 m | 15.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 36.4 m ≈ | 20.0 m ≈ | -26.7 m ≈ | 67.6 m ≈ | 154.2 m ≈ | 182.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 12.3 m | 9.7 m | 14.7 m | 18.0 m | 10.6 m | 7.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 10.5 m | -2.0 m | -53.1 m | 25.8 m | 126.9 m | 169.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 1.5 m | -1.2 m | -11.5 m | 9.0 m | 33.2 m | 43.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 12.2 m | -289.0 k | -45.8 m | 23.8 m | 105.5 m | 127.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.45 | -0.01 | -1.48 | 0.74 | 3.16 | 3.88 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 27.1 m | 27.1 m | 31.0 m | 32.3 m | 33.3 m | 32.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 44.5 m | 11.7 m | 10.5 m | 79.0 m | 127.7 m | 229.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 7.6 m | 10.0 m | 12.5 m | 12.6 m | 59.1 m | 20.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Inventories | 56.5 m | 125.2 m | 143.0 m | 135.3 m | 127.8 m | 139.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 116.9 m | 156.1 m | 174.5 m | 236.1 m | 323.4 m | 411.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 103.4 m | 105.5 m | 100.6 m | 95.1 m | 97.3 m | 108.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 18.8 m | 18.8 m | 18.8 m | 18.8 m | 18.8 m | 18.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 51.6 m | 49.4 m | 47.4 m | 45.4 m | 43.6 m | 41.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 317.4 m | 356.0 m | 366.1 m | 417.8 m | 524.9 m | 625.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 57.6 m | 72.3 m | 107.9 m | 137.1 m | 143.2 m | 151.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 9.9 m | 14.9 m | 19.8 m | 19.8 m | 5.0 m | 5.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 164.2 m | 149.6 m | 130.4 m | 110.5 m | 90.0 m | 85.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 111.6 m | 124.8 m | 164.8 m | 229.6 m | 236.0 m | 236.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | -53.2 m | -32.7 m | 1.4 m | 40.0 m | 159.6 m | 255.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.5 m | -54.2 m | -24.4 m | 119.9 m | 111.1 m | 176.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 19.0 m | 12.2 m | 6.5 m | 8.5 m | 15.3 m | 22.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -15.5 m ≈ | -66.5 m ≈ | -30.9 m ≈ | 111.4 m ≈ | 95.8 m ≈ | 153.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -18.8 m | -11.3 m | -6.5 m | -8.5 m | -15.8 m | -23.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -11.1 m | 32.8 m | 29.7 m | -42.9 m | -46.6 m | -50.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 3.6 m | 517.0 k | 1.7 m | 376.0 k | 1.2 m | 9.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 73 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet69
- Valuation77
- Quality82
- Growth100
- Returns6
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 29.27 – 178.61 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)85.49 – 131.41 (Mid 103.28)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 159.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -8.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA29.27 – 70.22 (Mid 47.19)11 companies used · median multiple 7.0x · quartiles 4.3x – 10.4xAPTV, BWA, CAAS, CPS, FSS, GGR, GNTX, LEA, MOD, OSK, PHIN
- Peers: P/E89.18 – 178.61 (Mid 131.78)16 companies used · median multiple 16.0x · quartiles 10.8x – 21.7xAPTV, BWA, CAAS, DAN, FSS, GM, GNTX, GTX, LEA, MGA, MLR, OSK, PCAR, PHIN, THO, VC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 73/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 43.1% | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 17.5% | 97 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 54.3% | 35 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 22.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 50 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 27.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 70 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.4x | 89 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 9.0x | 46 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.9% | 99 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.4% | 6 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial6/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation77/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Blue Bird Corp (BLBD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.9%; net margin 17.5%; ROE 64.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
The estimated value range is 85.49–131.41 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 103.28 USD, the price of 60.99 USD leaves a potential of 69.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 40.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 73/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 43.1%
- Net margin: 17.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 22.7%
- Interest coverage: 27.9x
- P/E (TTM): 7.4x
- FCF yield: 7.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Transportation equipment (SIC 371x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | 1,522.6 bn | 424.6 | 3.8% | 3.1% | −2.9% | −10% / +60% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | 78.0 bn | 20.6 | 6.1% | 2.1% | −1.3% | +26% / +192% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | 55.9 bn | 20.2 | 13.7% | 9.5% | −15.5% | +1% / +16% |
| LILi Auto Inc. | 23.5 bn | 144.8 | 1.6% | 1.0% | −18.8% | −37% / −69% |
| RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc. | 20.5 bn | — | -55.0% | -45.9% | +8.4% | −17% / −16% |
| MGAMagna International Inc. | 18.4 bn | 22.4 | 6.9% | 2.0% | −1.9% | +34% / +22% |
| BWABorgwarner Inc. | 10.1 bn | 21.5 | 8.2% | 3.4% | +1.6% | +17% / +50% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| OSKOshkosh Corporation | 8.7 bn | 17.5 | 11.0% | 4.6% | −2.9% | +12% / +47% |
| NIONIO Inc. | 8.2 bn | — | -302.6% | -17.1% | +38.9% | −40% / −55% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | 7.2 bn | 24.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | +17.1% | +3% / +71% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −11% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Co | 5.2 bn | 41.3 | 11.4% | 3.6% | +23.1% | −39% / +100% |
| GNTXGentex Corporation | 4.4 bn | 11.0 | 16.4% | 15.5% | +9.6% | −9% / −32% |
| THOThor Industries, Inc. | 4.4 bn | 25.0 | 4.2% | 1.8% | +0.3% | −20% / −15% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PHINPhinia Inc. | 2.6 bn | 14.5 | 12.2% | 5.2% | +2.4% | +33% / +181% |
| DANDana Incorporated | 2.6 bn | 2.4 | 71.4% | 14.6% | −3.0% | +6% / +80% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| BLBDBlue Bird Corp | 1.9 bn | 7.4 | 64.3% | 17.5% | +9.9% | +20% / +216% |
| MLRMiller Industries, Inc. | 588.6 m | 34.6 | 4.1% | 2.2% | −37.2% | +34% / +31% |
| CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 391.6 m | — | — | -2.0% | +0.4% | −29% / +24% |
| KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc. | 287.8 m | — | -30.5% | -107.4% | −31.5% | −63% / −88% |
| LOTLotus Technology Inc. | 217.2 m | — | — | -89.4% | −43.8% | −75% / −97% |
| CVGICommercial Vehicle Group, Inc. | 138.9 m | — | -7.5% | -1.4% | −10.3% | +93% / −48% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BLBD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 43.06 Total return -29% · Per year -29% | 75.78 Total return 24% · Per year 24% | 113.67 Total return 86% · Per year 86% |
| 3 years | 51.08 Total return -16% · Per year -6% | 100.22 Total return 64% · Per year 18% | 163.68 Total return 168% · Per year 39% |
| 5 years | 60.58 Total return -1% · Per year -0% | 132.54 Total return 117% · Per year 17% | 235.71 Total return 286% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 25.05
- Net margin± 17.54
- Annual revenue growth± 13.08
- Annual dilution± 1.47
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Blue Bird Corporation is the largest independent maker of school buses in the US and Canada, with a strong range of alternative-powered buses (propane, gasoline, electric). In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 net sales were 517.2 million USD and Adjusted EBITDA 71.4 million USD, both supported by the Micro Bird acquisition 3. The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance, so margin and pricing trends are worth watching closely 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Blue Bird presents itself as the only principal manufacturer of chassis and body designed specifically for US school transport, with an exclusive dealer network 12.
- The company holds a leading position in alternative-powered buses, with more than 40,000 alternative-fuel buses deployed since 2012 1.
- Third-quarter fiscal 2026 results and the raised guidance point to execution capability and cost management 3.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on single-source suppliers for engines, transmissions and critical components exposes the company to production interruptions 1.
- Parts sales are a small share of the total and dipped slightly in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 13.
- Quarterly results are sensitive to delivery timing and order cyclicality, which makes long-term performance hard to project 1.
Opportunities
- If demand for electric and low-emission buses keeps rising, the company could expand capacity and margins 13.
- The Ford collaboration for commercial chassis and the purchase of Detroit assets could open new segments from 2028 3.
- Integrating Micro Bird could broaden the product range, including small and mid-size commercial buses 13.
Threats
- Tariffs and rising costs for imported components could compress margins if price increases are not sufficient 12.
- Competitors with larger resources and vertical integration could pressure prices and market share 1.
- A reduction in government funding for alternative vehicles could lower customer demand 1.
Risks
- Supply chain disruptionshigh
Critical components come from single or limited suppliers, and delays can halt production and deliveries 1.
- Trade tariffshigh
Tariffs raised procurement costs for imported components, and the company relies on price increases to offset them 12.
- Cyclical demandmedium
Bus orders depend on municipal budgets and property-tax levels, which can fall in downturns 1.
- Intense competitionmedium
Large competitors and imports from lower-cost jurisdictions could reduce market share and prices 1.
- Acquisition integrationmedium
Consolidating Micro Bird and the planned purchase of Detroit assets bring integration costs and accounting effects on profit 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A leading position in alternative-powered buses, combined with an exclusive dealer network, could support margin growth over the long term 12.
- The raised fiscal 2026 guidance and the 2030+ targets show management confidence in profitable growth 3.
- Expansion into commercial chassis with Ford and the Micro Bird acquisition could diversify revenue sources 3.
What would break the thesis
- Tariffs and procurement costs could erode margins if price increases do not keep pace 12.
- School bus demand is cyclical and depends on public budgets and subsidies, which could be reduced 1.
- The accounting gain from remeasuring the Micro Bird stake strongly shaped third-quarter net income, which makes reported profit hard to compare 3.
What to watch
- Delivery of the fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidanceQ4 2026
- Effect of tariffs and price increases on marginsQ4 2026
- Closing of the Detroit asset purchase and start of the next-generation chassis2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Blue Bird designs, manufactures and sells Type C and Type D school buses and specialty buses, built on a dedicated chassis in Fort Valley, Georgia. Products reach customers through an exclusive dealer network in the US and Canada, plus direct sales to major fleets, the US government and state governments 1. The company was founded in 1927 and has sold more than 619,000 buses since then 1.
Starting in the second half of fiscal 2025 the company consolidated Micro Bird, a Canadian joint venture making Type A buses, which it fully acquired effective April 1, 2026 13. The acquisition adds to sales and profit in the third quarter, but makes comparisons with the prior period less direct 3.
Market context
The US and Canadian school bus market is large and fairly predictable. Type C and D unit sales averaged about 30,500 units a year between 1985 and 2025, and for 2025 about 31,000 units were projected, a 30.8% increase over 2024 1. Demand is supported by property-tax funding and the mandatory nature of school transport, but depends on municipal budgets and incentives for low-emission vehicles 1.
Companies have dealt with supply chain constraints and trade tariffs, which raised costs for imported components and required price increases 12. Market conditions after 2025 will depend on new trade policies and federal and state funding programs, so the outlook remains partly uncertain 1.
Trends
- Electrification and alternative powertailwind
Blue Bird presents itself as a leader in electric and propane buses, and demand for these products has grown steadily over the past decade 1. If demand for low-emission vehicles keeps rising, the alternative-power range could support better margins 1.
- Government subsidies for alternative vehiclesmixed
Federal and state funding offsets the price gap of alternative-powered buses, and delayed payments can hold back orders in some periods 1. A reduction in these funds could lower customer purchases 1.
- Tariffs and procurement costsheadwind
Trade tariffs raised procurement costs for imported components from the second half of fiscal 2025, and the company responded with price increases 12. If those increases cannot fully offset higher costs, margins could be affected 1.
- Market cyclicality and school budgetsheadwind
The school bus market is cyclical and depends on housing prices, property-tax levels and municipal budgets 1. An economic slowdown could delay orders and reduce revenue 1.
Competitive position
The main US competitors are Thomas Built Bus, owned by Daimler Trucks North America, and IC Bus, owned by International Motors, LLC, which have access to more technical, financial and marketing resources than Blue Bird 1. Both already sell electric buses and have announced or offer gasoline buses, placing them in direct competition with the company's alternative-power range 1.
The US school bus market has no Buy America rules, so buses built in lower-cost jurisdictions can be imported, adding price pressure 1. Blue Bird differentiates through its exclusive dealer network and its leadership in alternative power 2.
- Thomas Built Bus
Owned by Daimler Trucks North America; the main US competitor with larger consolidated resources, selling electric and gasoline buses 1.
- IC Bus
Owned by International Motors, LLC, formerly Navistar; a main US competitor active in electric and gasoline school buses 1.
- Daimler Truck
Parent of Thomas Built Bus, with resources for consolidation and vertical integration of components 1.
- International Motors
Parent of IC Bus, with larger resources to develop competing products 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Is Twitter back? Ex-employee fights to revive the blue birdEuronews Next · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 06 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report06 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)04 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report02 Apr 2026Acquisition or disposition of assets · Item 3.02 · Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-27 · SEC / Blue Bird Corporation · 24 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Blue Bird Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Blue Bird Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.