olivLaw · US equity research
Lear Corporation LEA
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories · SIC 3714 · Vertical: Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714)
Lear Corporation is a global automotive technology leader with two segments, Seating and E-Systems, supplying nearly all of the world's major automakers. In the second quarter of 2026 its revenue rose 3%, and amid tariff uncertainty and volatile vehicle production it raised the midpoint of its full-year guidance.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Lear Corporation (LEA) stock was 118.70 USD (+1.65% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.7 bn USD, P/E 10.4 on diluted EPS of 11.45 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.65%, beta 0.94, 52-week range 99.28–148.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 5.8 bn USD (+1.6% YoY), net income of 136.6 m USD (+26.2% YoY), diluted EPS 2.74 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 115.36 – 121.73
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.52 · band width 5.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 121.85 / 128.42
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.92 / -1.22
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.2% | −1.1% | −1.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.2% | −0.5% | −4.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.7% | +4.4% | −18.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.6% | +12.3% | −8.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.3% | +13.5% | −2.3 pp | −12.2% |
| 3 years | −9.2% | +76.4% | −85.6 pp | +9.8% |
| 5 years | −33.4% | +63.7% | −97.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 03 Oct 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.7 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 5.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.4 bn |
| Gross profit | 387.1 m | 359.2 m | 439.1 m | 363.7 m | 342.4 m | 450.3 m | 470.3 m | 382.3 m |
| SG&A | 166.6 m | 172.4 m | 186.3 m | 166.4 m | 182.5 m | 190.3 m | 197.5 m | 180.6 m |
| Operating income | 209.9 m | 181.6 m | 248.1 m | 192.5 m | 155.1 m | 255.0 m | 267.9 m | 197.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 159.1 m | 147.7 m | 148.2 m ≈ | 152.3 m ≈ | 155.9 m | 149.9 m | 150.6 m ≈ | 151.4 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 26.7 m | 25.8 m | 25.4 m | 24.6 m | 25.0 m | 25.6 m | 24.2 m | 20.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 158.9 m | 135.4 m | 217.5 m | 159.4 m | 112.8 m | 216.7 m | 240.9 m | 172.8 m |
| Income tax | 57.3 m | 45.2 m | 41.6 m | 45.1 m | 18.1 m | 38.4 m | 48.5 m | 42.2 m |
| Net income | 88.1 m | 80.7 m | 165.2 m | 108.2 m | 82.7 m | 172.3 m | 192.8 m | 136.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.61 ≈ | 1.49 | 3.06 | 2.02 | 1.58 ≈ | 3.34 | 3.79 | 2.74 |
| Operating cash flow | 680.8 m | -127.7 m | 296.2 m ≈ | 444.4 m ≈ | 475.9 m | 98.1 m | 460.5 m ≈ | 329.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 192.1 m | 104.0 m | 125.4 m ≈ | 137.4 m ≈ | 194.8 m | 124.6 m | 172.7 m ≈ | 170.9 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 41.8 m | 43.3 m | 41.2 m ≈ | 40.9 m ≈ | 39.4 m | 42.5 m | 38.7 m ≈ | 38.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 105.9 m | 25.0 m | 22.5 m ≈ | 102.6 m ≈ | 175.1 m | 75.0 m | 100.0 m ≈ | 175.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 7.1, median 12.0, max 67.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.1 bn | 19.8 bn | 17.0 bn | 19.3 bn | 20.9 bn | 23.5 bn | 23.3 bn | 23.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +3.3% | −6.3% | −14.0% | +13.0% | +8.5% | +12.3% | −0.7% | −0.2% |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 753.6 m | 158.5 m | 373.9 m | 327.7 m | 572.5 m | 506.6 m | 436.8 m |
| Net income YoY | −12.5% | −34.5% | −79.0% | +135.9% | −12.4% | +74.7% | −11.5% | −13.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 17.22 | 12.75 | 2.62 | 6.19 | 5.47 | 9.68 | 8.97 | 8.15 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −7.4% | −26.0% | −79.5% | +136.3% | −11.6% | +77.0% | −7.3% | −9.1% |
| net % | 5.4% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 680.4 m | 210.8 m | 85.0 m | 383.2 m | 622.8 m | 561.4 m | 527.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 27.9 m USD
- Net debt
- -1.0 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 14.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 1.35x
- ROE
- 8.9%
- ROA
- 3.0%
- FCF margin
- 2.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17.0 bn | 19.3 bn | 20.9 bn | 23.5 bn | 23.3 bn | 23.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 15.9 bn | 17.9 bn | 19.5 bn | 21.8 bn | 21.7 bn | 21.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 588.9 m | 643.2 m | 684.8 m | 714.7 m | 702.5 m | 707.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 454.1 m | 675.4 m | 654.3 m | 933.2 m | 887.7 m | 777.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 539.9 m | 573.9 m | 576.5 m | 604.4 m | 620.7 m | 604.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 994.0 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 99.6 m | 91.8 m | 98.6 m | 101.1 m | 106.2 m | 100.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 299.3 m | 583.5 m | 509.3 m | 777.2 m | 732.9 m | 625.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 93.9 m | 137.7 m | 133.7 m | 180.8 m | 191.1 m | 150.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 158.5 m | 373.9 m | 327.7 m | 572.5 m | 506.6 m | 436.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.62 | 6.19 | 5.47 | 9.68 | 8.97 | 8.15 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 60.4 m | 60.4 m | 59.9 m | 59.1 m | 56.5 m | 53.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.77 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.8 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 368.2 m | 302.5 m | 235.4 m | 189.1 m | 115.0 m | 109.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 13.2 bn | 13.4 bn | 13.8 bn | 14.7 bn | 14.0 bn | 14.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 9.9 m | 27.5 m | 26.7 m | 27.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 663.1 m | 670.1 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 452.3 m | 585.1 m | 638.2 m | 626.5 m | 558.7 m | 561.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 210.8 m ≈ | 85.0 m ≈ | 383.2 m ≈ | 622.8 m ≈ | 561.4 m ≈ | 527.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -468.8 m | -646.7 m | -830.3 m | -761.5 m | -543.0 m | -516.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -411.7 m | -13.6 m | -387.3 m | -419.5 m | -693.9 m | -618.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 67.3 m | 106.7 m | 185.5 m | 181.9 m | 173.7 m | 164.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 70.0 m | 100.3 m | 100.3 m | 296.5 m | 416.7 m | 325.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 82 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet83
- Growth63
- Quality76
- Returns100
- Valuation90
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 137.01 – 352.31 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)226.21 – 334.14 (Mid 268.32)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 777.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA231.65 – 352.31 (Mid 249.50)14 companies used · median multiple 7.5x · quartiles 6.9x – 10.9xALV, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CPS, DCH, DORM, GNTX, LCII, MOD, PATK, PHIN, SMP, THRM
- Peers: P/E137.01 – 224.64 (Mid 172.53)18 companies used · median multiple 15.1x · quartiles 12.0x – 19.6xADNT, ALSN, ALV, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CAAS, DAN, DORM, GNTX, GTX, LCII, MGA, PATK, PHIN, SMP, STRT, VC
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate10.12 – 13.61 (Mid 11.61)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 82/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 16.4% | 76 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.5% | 50 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 119.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.6% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 14.2% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.6x | 93 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.4x | 86 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.3x | 87 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 12.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 22.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation90/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
LEAR CORP (LEA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-10-03.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 23.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -0.2%; net margin 2.5%; ROE 11.6%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.
The estimated value range is 226.21–334.14 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 249.50 USD, the price of 118.70 USD leaves a potential of 110.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 52.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 82/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 16.4%
- FCF conversion: 119.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 14.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.6x
- Interest coverage: 9.1x
- P/E (TTM): 10.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.3x
- FCF yield: 12.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 12.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 22.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 34 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGAMagna International Inc. | 18.4 bn | 22.4 | 6.9% | 2.0% | −1.9% | +34% / +22% |
| BWABorgwarner Inc. | 10.1 bn | 21.5 | 8.2% | 3.4% | +1.6% | +17% / +50% |
| ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 17.4 | 29.7% | 11.1% | −6.7% | +36% / +125% |
| ALVAutoliv, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 15.1 | 24.8% | 5.6% | +4.1% | +7% / +21% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −9% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Co | 5.2 bn | 41.3 | 11.4% | 3.6% | +23.1% | −39% / +100% |
| GNTXGentex Corporation | 4.4 bn | 11.0 | 16.4% | 15.5% | +9.6% | −9% / −32% |
| DORMDorman Products, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 21.2 | 13.3% | 9.3% | +6.0% | +8% / +98% |
| ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.3 | 55.8% | 11.3% | +5.7% | −5% / +119% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PATKPatrick Industries Inc | 2.7 bn | 20.1 | 13.0% | 3.7% | +6.3% | −22% / +55% |
| PHINPhinia Inc. | 2.6 bn | 14.5 | 12.2% | 5.2% | +2.4% | +33% / +181% |
| DANDana Incorporated | 2.6 bn | 2.4 | 71.4% | 14.6% | −3.0% | +6% / +80% |
| LCIILci Industries | 2.5 bn | 12.1 | 15.0% | 5.2% | +10.2% | −8% / −4% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| THRMGentherm Incorporated | 1.6 bn | 105.3 | 1.3% | 0.6% | +2.9% | −13% / −32% |
| ADNTAdient plc | 1.3 bn | 28.5 | 2.7% | 0.3% | −1.0% | −12% / −47% |
| DCHDauch Corporation | 1.1 bn | — | -15.2% | -2.0% | −4.7% | −27% / −31% |
| SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 15.1 | 9.9% | 3.8% | +22.4% | +22% / +28% |
| AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc. | 661.5 m | — | — | -150.1% | +99.4% | −15% / +240% |
| CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 391.6 m | — | — | -2.0% | +0.4% | −29% / +24% |
| HLLYHolley Inc. | 351.6 m | 35.3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | +1.9% | −32% / −30% |
| KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc. | 287.8 m | — | -30.5% | -107.4% | −31.5% | −63% / −88% |
| STRTStrattec Security Corp | 258.5 m | 15.6 | 7.2% | 2.9% | +2.5% | −14% / +201% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LEA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 73.70 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 130.35 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 196.41 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 70.30 Total return -39% · Per year -15% | 140.02 Total return 20% · Per year 6% | 231.83 Total return 98% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 67.06 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 150.40 Total return 31% · Per year 5% | 273.64 Total return 136% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 35.00
- Net margin± 24.50
- Annual revenue growth± 20.28
- Annual dilution± 2.06
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
Lear Corporation is a global automotive technology leader with two segments, Seating and E-Systems, supplying nearly all of the world's major automakers. In the second quarter of 2026 its revenue rose 3% 3, and amid tariff uncertainty and volatile vehicle production it raised the midpoint of its full-year guidance 3.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on customer volumeshigh
Revenue depends on vehicles produced by a few large customers, so a production drop or financial distress at a major customer could hurt results 1.
- Raw material and labor costsmedium
Rising costs or limited availability of materials, energy and labor could compress margins if cost reductions do not offset them 1.
- Trade policy and tariffshigh
Tariff changes and sanctions could raise costs and disrupt the supply chain, although contractual recovery mechanisms are in place 1.
- Strategy executionmedium
If acquisitions or automation investments fail to deliver expected results, strategic goals could be affected 1.
- Supplier disruption and labor disputesmedium
Financial distress at suppliers or labor disputes at customers and suppliers could interrupt production 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If new contracts with European, American and Chinese customers convert into real volumes, revenue and margins could keep growing, as the raised guidance suggests 3.
- If cash flow stays strong, the company could continue its share repurchase program alongside dividends 3.
- Its vertical integration in seating and its content on many platforms could offer advantages in future production cycles 1.
What would break the thesis
- If global vehicle production falls more than the guidance assumes, volumes and revenue could come in below expectations 3.
- If tariffs or the USMCA review bring costs that contracts do not cover, margins could come under pressure 1.
- Losing share at traditional customers to Chinese makers could reduce the company's volumes 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the raised full-year guidance for net sales and core operating earnings2026 (next quarterly report)
- Evolution of U.S. tariffs and the outcome of the USMCA review2026
- Vehicle production trends in Europe and China, where output fell in the second quarterQ3 2026
- Restructuring costs and their effect on free cash flow2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
The business
Lear Corporation, founded in Detroit in 1917 and listed on the NYSE under LEA 3, designs and manufactures complete seat systems, seat components and electrical distribution systems, including battery disconnect units 1. The company has 258 manufacturing, engineering and administrative locations in 36 countries 1 and holds automotive content on more than 500 vehicle nameplates 1. Its strategy rests on four pillars: extending its Seating leadership, expanding E-Systems margins, operational excellence through automation, and employee and sustainability initiatives 1.
Segments
Seating
The Seating segment designs, engineers and manufactures complete seat systems and key components such as trim covers, mechanisms, heating, ventilation and massage products 1. The company describes itself as the most vertically integrated global seat supplier 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 the segment margin was 6.2% of sales 3.
Market context
Lear sells to light vehicle makers in every major producing region, and its sales are driven by vehicles produced and content per vehicle 1. Global industry production rose 4% in 2025 versus 2024 but remained below its 2017 peak 1. In the second quarter of 2026 global production was roughly flat year-on-year 3, and the guidance assumes industry production falls about 2% in 2026 on a Lear sales-weighted basis 3.
Trends
- Tariffs and trade policyheadwind
U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions could raise operating costs or hit customer production, although the company says contracts recover substantially all tariff costs incurred to date 1. The 2026 review of the USMCA agreement is a major open uncertainty 1.
- Electrification and hybrid vehiclesmixed
Lear's seats work with combustion and all electrified powertrains, and high-voltage products such as battery disconnect units support electric vehicles 1. Consumer preferences for electrified vehicles could still shift volumes across platforms 1.
- Automation and artificial intelligencetailwind
Investment in automation, digitalization and AI is part of the strategy to cut costs and raise efficiency 1. Recent automation acquisitions have reinforced this direction 1.
- Chinese automaker competitionmixed
Chinese automakers are expanding their share in China and abroad, which could reduce volumes at Lear's traditional customers 1. At the same time Lear is winning awards with Chinese automakers, such as the Leapmotor seat award in South America 3.
Competitive position
Lear competes with other global seat and electrical systems suppliers, many of which operate in all major regions. Automaker price pressure is a characteristic of the industry, and the company relies on product cost reductions and vertical integration to stay competitive 1.
- Global seating suppliers
Competitors in the Seating segment; the cited sources do not name specific firms with a U.S. ticker.
- Global electrical distribution and power suppliers
Competitors in the E-Systems segment, not individually named in the cited sources.
- Chinese electric vehicle makers
Not direct competitors but a growing customer group that may build its own capabilities, as the company's risk disclosure describes.
- Traditional automakers
Major customers whose market share is declining against new entrants, which affects Lear's volumes.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report30 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report31 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report01 May 2026
- Current report01 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Lear Corporation · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-04 · SEC / Lear Corporation · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lear Corporation · 31 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.