olivLaw · US equity research
Dorman Products, Inc. DORM
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories · SIC 3714 · Vertical: Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714)
Dorman Products supplies replacement and upgrade parts for passenger cars, trucks and specialty vehicles, with a catalog of over ten thousand references refreshed continually. With margins under pressure from pricing, concentrated customers and tariffs, the company narrowed its fiscal 2026 guidance in October 2026, with net sales growth now expected at 2% to 3%.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) stock was 142.41 USD (+4.66% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.2 bn USD, P/E 21.2 on diluted EPS of 6.72 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.05%, beta 0.73, 52-week range 100.50–147.80 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 561.7 m USD (+3.3% YoY), net income of 59.2 m USD (−22.6% YoY), diluted EPS 1.98 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.4
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 114.30 – 140.13
- above the upper band · %B 1.09 · band width 20.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 126.12 / 123.61
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.55 / 1.59
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.4% | −1.1% | +16.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.6% | −0.5% | +1.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +16.1% | +4.4% | +11.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.6% | +12.3% | +3.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.5% | +13.5% | −5.0 pp | −12.2% |
| 3 years | +109.0% | +76.4% | +32.6 pp | −3.9% |
| 5 years | +24.7% | +63.7% | −39.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 533.8 m | 507.7 m | 541.0 m | 543.7 m | 537.9 m | 528.8 m | 544.6 m | 561.7 m |
| Cost of revenue | 312.1 m | 300.0 m | 321.4 m | 302.3 m | 308.8 m | 338.6 m | 293.4 m | 340.1 m |
| Gross profit | 221.7 m | 207.7 m | 219.5 m | 241.4 m | 229.1 m | 190.2 m | 251.2 m | 221.6 m |
| SG&A | 135.0 m | 127.6 m | 137.0 m | 135.7 m | 141.1 m | 131.4 m | 135.0 m | 138.7 m |
| Operating income | 86.7 m | 80.1 m | 82.5 m | 105.8 m | 31.2 m | 58.8 m | 116.2 m | 82.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | -9.0 m | 13.8 m | 13.9 m ≈ | 14.0 m ≈ | -8.2 m | 14.0 m | 13.9 m ≈ | 13.8 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 9.2 m | 7.4 m | 7.2 m | 7.2 m | 6.7 m | 5.8 m | 6.3 m | 8.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 78.9 m | 74.1 m | 76.8 m | 99.9 m | 24.6 m | 56.2 m | 115.5 m | 77.4 m |
| Income tax | 24.4 m | 16.6 m | 18.1 m | 23.5 m | 13.0 m | 12.7 m | 27.7 m | 18.2 m |
| Net income | 54.5 m | 57.5 m | 58.7 m | 76.4 m | 11.6 m | 43.6 m | 87.8 m | 59.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.77 ≈ | 1.87 | 1.91 | 2.48 | 0.38 ≈ | 1.43 | 2.93 | 1.98 |
| Operating cash flow | 71.4 m | 51.2 m | 8.5 m ≈ | 12.2 m ≈ | 41.6 m | 43.8 m | 152.6 m ≈ | 64.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 8.2 m | 11.0 m | 8.5 m ≈ | 10.4 m ≈ | 8.2 m | 8.4 m | 9.1 m ≈ | 7.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 48 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 16.8, median 21.8, max 31.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 973.7 m | 991.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.8% | +1.8% | +10.2% | +23.1% | +28.9% | +11.3% | +4.1% | +6.0% |
| Net income | 133.6 m | 83.8 m | 106.9 m | 131.5 m | 121.5 m | 129.3 m | 190.0 m | 204.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +25.3% | −37.3% | +27.6% | +23.1% | −7.6% | +6.3% | +47.0% | +7.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.02 | 2.56 | 3.30 | 4.12 | 3.85 | 4.10 | 6.14 | 6.64 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +28.4% | −36.3% | +28.9% | +24.8% | −6.6% | +6.5% | +49.8% | +8.1% |
| net % | 13.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% |
| Free cash flow | 52.0 m | 65.7 m | 136.5 m | 80.5 m | 3.8 m | 164.8 m | 191.6 m | 75.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 49.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 439.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 390.5 m USD
- Equity
- 1.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.30x
- Current ratio
- 3.09x
- ROE
- 14.7%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- FCF margin
- 3.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 709.6 m | 882.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 383.1 m | 462.9 m | 564.5 m | 685.4 m | 806.4 m | 897.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 249.7 m | 291.4 m | 393.4 m | 470.7 m | 513.5 m | 541.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 133.4 m | 171.6 m | 171.0 m | 214.8 m | 292.9 m | 299.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 26.6 m | 26.3 m | 28.6 m | 31.9 m | 34.0 m | 33.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 160.0 m ≈ | 197.9 m ≈ | 199.6 m ≈ | 246.7 m ≈ | 326.9 m ≈ | 333.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 599.0 k | 2.2 m | 15.6 m | 48.1 m | 39.7 m | 28.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 135.7 m | 169.8 m | 156.2 m | 168.5 m | 256.3 m | 275.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 28.9 m | 38.2 m | 34.7 m | 39.2 m | 66.2 m | 71.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 106.9 m | 131.5 m | 121.5 m | 129.3 m | 190.0 m | 204.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.30 | 4.12 | 3.85 | 4.10 | 6.14 | 6.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 32.4 m | 32.0 m | 31.5 m | 31.5 m | 31.0 m | 30.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 155.6 m | 58.8 m | 46.0 m | 36.8 m | 57.1 m | 49.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 460.9 m | 472.8 m | 427.4 m | 526.9 m | 573.8 m | 479.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 298.7 m | 532.0 m | 755.9 m | 637.4 m | 708.0 m | 959.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 922.9 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 91.0 m | 114.9 m | 148.5 m | 160.1 m | 164.5 m | 168.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 91.1 m | 197.3 m | 443.0 m | 443.9 m | 442.9 m | 387.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 25.2 m | 178.8 m | 322.4 m | 301.6 m | 278.2 m | 257.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 117.9 m | 177.4 m | 179.8 m | 176.7 m | 231.8 m | 185.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 12.5 m | 15.6 m | 28.1 m | 37.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 0 | 482.5 m | 467.2 m | 439.5 m | 402.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 322.6 m | 665.0 m | 678.3 m | 547.2 m | 563.8 m | 492.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 853.6 m † | 932.7 m † | 1.0 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 152.0 m | 100.3 m | 41.7 m | 208.8 m | 231.0 m | 113.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 15.5 m | 19.8 m | 37.9 m | 44.0 m | 39.4 m | 38.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 136.5 m ≈ | 80.5 m ≈ | 3.8 m ≈ | 164.8 m ≈ | 191.6 m ≈ | 75.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -30.3 m | -365.3 m | -526.8 m | -43.9 m | -39.3 m | -38.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -34.5 m | 168.2 m | 472.5 m | -174.1 m | -171.0 m | -83.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet80
- Growth80
- Valuation35
- Quality81
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.71 – 217.55 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)135.16 – 217.55 (Mid 166.67)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 289.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 0.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA65.26 – 82.00 (Mid 72.55)13 companies used · median multiple 7.5x · quartiles 6.8x – 8.3xALV, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CPS, DCH, GNTX, LCII, LEA, MOD, PATK, PHIN, SMP
- Peers: P/E75.33 – 121.08 (Mid 99.16)18 companies used · median multiple 14.8x · quartiles 11.2x – 18.0xADNT, ALSN, ALV, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CAAS, DAN, GNTX, GTX, LCII, LEA, MGA, PATK, PHIN, SMP, STRT, VC
- Dividend discount (DDM)19.71 – 26.51 (Mid 22.61)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 11.5% | 67 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.3% | 85 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 133.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.1% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 19.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 60 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.2x | 29 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.9x | 7 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.4% | 80 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.0%; net margin 9.3%; ROE 13.3%; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x.
The estimated value range is 70.30–101.54 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 85.86 USD, the price of 142.41 USD leaves a potential of -39.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -65.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 9.3%
- FCF conversion: 133.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 19.9%
- Interest coverage: 10.8x
- Current ratio: 3.7x
- FCF yield: 6.4%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 21.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 13.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 34 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGAMagna International Inc. | 18.4 bn | 22.4 | 6.9% | 2.0% | −1.9% | +34% / +22% |
| BWABorgwarner Inc. | 10.1 bn | 21.5 | 8.2% | 3.4% | +1.6% | +17% / +50% |
| ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 17.4 | 29.7% | 11.1% | −6.7% | +36% / +125% |
| ALVAutoliv, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 15.1 | 24.8% | 5.6% | +4.1% | +7% / +21% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −11% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Co | 5.2 bn | 41.3 | 11.4% | 3.6% | +23.1% | −39% / +100% |
| GNTXGentex Corporation | 4.4 bn | 11.0 | 16.4% | 15.5% | +9.6% | −9% / −32% |
| DORMDorman Products, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 21.2 | 13.3% | 9.3% | +6.0% | +9% / +109% |
| ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.3 | 55.8% | 11.3% | +5.7% | −5% / +119% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PATKPatrick Industries Inc | 2.7 bn | 20.1 | 13.0% | 3.7% | +6.3% | −22% / +55% |
| PHINPhinia Inc. | 2.6 bn | 14.5 | 12.2% | 5.2% | +2.4% | +33% / +181% |
| DANDana Incorporated | 2.6 bn | 2.4 | 71.4% | 14.6% | −3.0% | +6% / +80% |
| LCIILci Industries | 2.5 bn | 12.1 | 15.0% | 5.2% | +10.2% | −8% / −4% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| THRMGentherm Incorporated | 1.6 bn | 105.3 | 1.3% | 0.6% | +2.9% | −13% / −32% |
| ADNTAdient plc | 1.3 bn | 28.5 | 2.7% | 0.3% | −1.0% | −12% / −47% |
| DCHDauch Corporation | 1.1 bn | — | -15.2% | -2.0% | −4.7% | −27% / −31% |
| SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 15.1 | 9.9% | 3.8% | +22.4% | +22% / +28% |
| AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc. | 661.5 m | — | — | -150.1% | +99.4% | −15% / +240% |
| CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 391.6 m | — | — | -2.0% | +0.4% | −29% / +24% |
| HLLYHolley Inc. | 351.6 m | 35.3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | +1.9% | −32% / −30% |
| KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc. | 287.8 m | — | -30.5% | -107.4% | −31.5% | −63% / −88% |
| STRTStrattec Security Corp | 258.5 m | 15.6 | 7.2% | 2.9% | +2.5% | −14% / +201% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DORM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 88.12 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 155.60 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 234.11 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 90.06 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 178.50 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 294.23 Total return 107% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 92.05 Total return -35% · Per year -8% | 204.77 Total return 44% · Per year 8% | 369.79 Total return 160% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 44.62
- Net margin± 31.24
- Annual revenue growth± 25.02
- Annual dilution± 2.62
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).
In brief
Dorman Products supplies replacement and upgrade parts for passenger cars, trucks and specialty vehicles, with a catalog of over ten thousand references refreshed continually. With margins under pressure from pricing, concentrated customers and tariffs, the company narrowed its fiscal 2026 guidance in October 2026, with net sales growth now expected at 2% to 3% 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Very broad parts range, many designed in-house, and a high volume of new product launches each year.
- High share of own-brand sales, which supports margins compared with bulk selling.
- Diversified supplier network, with no single supplier above ten percent of purchases.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a few large customers, which can demand better terms and reduce orders.
- Margins can compress when prices are adjusted to stay competitive or to recover costs.
- Purchasing concentrated in one country makes the company exposed to tariffs and trade tensions.
Opportunities
- An ageing vehicle fleet and growing electronic complexity could expand demand for replacement and repair parts.
- Expansion into heavy-duty and UTV markets could add growth if those markets expand.
- Acquisitions could add distribution capacity and product development resources, in line with the stated strategy.
Threats
- Tariffs and trade policy changes could raise purchase costs and reduce margins.
- Competitors with larger resources could offer lower prices or copy new products.
- Better vehicle quality and longer manufacturer warranties could reduce how often parts are replaced.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A few large customers account for a major share of sales, and a drop in orders or a change in terms could seriously affect results.
- Tariffs and foreign suppliershigh
Reliance on suppliers in China and on ocean freight could raise costs if tariffs or shipping routes change.
- Price pressuremedium
Intense competition could push the company to cut prices or offer better terms, directly affecting margins.
- Inventory and forecastingmedium
Errors in demand forecasting could lead to excess stock or shortages, with lost sales as a result.
- Cost inflationmedium
Higher costs for materials, transport and labour could weigh on margins if they cannot be passed on to customers.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the vehicle fleet continues to age and demand for repair parts stays solid, sales growth could support results over the long term.
- The broad portfolio and frequent new product launches could strengthen the company's position against competitors.
- A solid balance sheet and record share repurchases suggest management sees sufficient financing capacity.
What would break the thesis
- If margins keep falling, as seen in the third quarter of 2026, profit could be weaker than the market expects.
- Dependence on a few customers and their pressure for better terms could limit the ability to raise prices.
- Tariffs and trade tensions could raise purchase costs more than can be passed on to customers.
What to watch
- Fiscal 2026 sales and profit guidance, especially Light Duty marginQ4 2026
- Development of tariffs and their effect on purchase costs2027
- Share of net sales from the two largest customersnext 10-K
- Number of new products launched and Heavy Duty sales trendQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).
The business
Dorman is one of the leading suppliers of replacement and upgrade parts in the motor vehicle aftermarket, with net sales of 2130.3 million dollars in fiscal 2025 1. It markets about 144,000 distinct parts, many designed in-house, and about 76% of products are sold under brands it owns, with the rest sold under customers' private labels or in bulk 1. Most parts are made by third parties outside the US, especially in China, and the company aims to offer repairers faster and cheaper solutions than those of original manufacturers 1.
Operations are split into three segments: Light Duty for passenger cars and light trucks, Heavy Duty for medium and heavy trucks, and Specialty Vehicle for UTVs and ATVs 1. Sales go through auto parts retailers, dealers and wholesale distributors, and for some parts directly to consumers online 1. Dorman also sells abroad, mainly into Canada and Mexico 1.
The company is currently focused on new product launches: in the first six months of 2026 it introduced 1885 distinct parts, of which 528 were new to the aftermarket 2. The push into complex electronics and heavy-duty vehicles aims to broaden the portfolio rather than only grow existing sales 2.
Segments
Light Duty
This is the largest segment and the most important for the company's margins. In the third quarter of 2026 it generated 443.7 million dollars of net sales, while segment margin fell to 18.5% from 23.7% a year earlier 3.
Heavy Duty
The heavy-duty segment had sales of 66.1 million dollars in the third quarter of 2026, but its profit margin reached 0.0%, below 4.5% a year earlier, showing the segment's sensitivity to costs and prices 3.
Market context
The company estimates that its three sectors had a total addressable market of over 165 billion dollars in 2025 1. Vehicles in operation in the US rose to 302.7 million, with an average age of 12.9 years, and this older fleet supports demand for replacement parts 1.
Demand also depends on miles driven: according to data cited by the company, miles in the light-duty sector rose 1.0% year over year through October 2025, but persistently high fuel prices could reduce travel if they continue 1.
Trends
- Ageing vehicle fleettailwind
Owners are keeping vehicles longer, which widens the base for replacement parts and supports volume over the long term 1.
- Electronic complexitytailwind
A new vehicle carries on average about 100 electronic modules, opening room for complex parts that could carry better margins 2.
- Tariffs and pricingmixed
Tariffs have added cost pressure and forced price adjustments, which shaped third-quarter 2026 margins; if tariffs change again, guidance could be affected 3.
- Pressure from large customersheadwind
Sales concentrated in a few large customers lead to demands for discounts and longer payment terms, compressing margins and working capital 1.
Competitive position
Dorman competes with a broad group of manufacturers and brands, from large public companies to small specialists, including Standard Motor Products, Tenneco, Gates and OEM brands such as ACDelco and Motorcraft 1. Competition also comes from customers' private-label brands and from manufacturers selling directly through dealer networks 1.
Competitive pressure shows up as lower prices and better terms offered to customers, which could reduce margins if Dorman does not sustain its product and assortment advantage 1.
- Standard Motor ProductsSMP
Competing supplier of aftermarket auto parts, named directly in the company's risk disclosures.
- Tenneco
Vehicle components maker named among aftermarket competitors; ticker not confirmed in the sources.
- Gates Corporation
Supplier of drive and engine components competing in the aftermarket.
- ACDelco
Parts brand owned by an automaker, competing through OEM service networks.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report27 Oct 2026
- Current report26 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report03 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report04 May 2026
- Current report04 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement06 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Dorman Products, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Dorman Products, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Dorman Products, Inc. · 26 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.