olivLaw · US equity research
Modine Manufacturing Company MOD
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories · SIC 3714 · Vertical: Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714)
Modine Manufacturing Company designs and makes thermal management solutions for data centers, commercial HVAC and vehicles. It is shifting toward a pure-play climate solutions profile as AI-driven demand for data center cooling grows quickly and the spin-off of Performance Technologies approaches, with fiscal 2026 net sales of 3.2 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock was 98.56 USD (−21.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.2 bn USD, P/E 41.3 on diluted EPS of 2.38 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.34, 52-week range 98.56–306.89 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 994.4 m USD (+34.6% YoY), net income of 30.0 m USD (−32.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.56 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 22.1
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 104.71 – 186.28
- below the lower band · %B -0.08 · band width 56.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 170.03 / 215.85
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -16.44 / -13.69
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −46.1% | −1.1% | −45.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −49.4% | −0.5% | −48.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −64.1% | +4.4% | −68.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −26.2% | +12.3% | −38.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −32.6% | +13.5% | −46.1 pp | −10.2% |
| 3 years | +133.8% | +76.4% | +57.4 pp | −3.9% |
| 5 years | +777.6% | +63.7% | +714.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 616.8 m | 647.2 m | 682.8 m | 738.9 m | 805.0 m | 954.4 m | 874.1 m | 994.4 m |
| Cost of revenue | 467.2 m | 481.2 m | 517.4 m | 574.0 m | 618.9 m | 739.7 m | 692.1 m | 789.0 m |
| Gross profit | 149.6 m | 166.0 m | 165.4 m | 164.9 m | 186.1 m | 214.7 m | 182.0 m | 205.4 m |
| SG&A | 82.0 m | 81.5 m | 84.9 m | 84.2 m | 89.3 m | 101.7 m | 103.3 m | 104.6 m |
| Operating income | 59.3 m | 74.5 m | 75.7 m | 73.5 m | 89.3 m | 103.9 m | 74.8 m | 97.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 19.4 m | 19.2 m | 19.0 m | 19.7 m | 20.4 m | 20.6 m | 20.7 m | 21.3 m |
| Interest expense | 6.2 m | 5.3 m | 5.8 m | 8.3 m | 8.9 m | 8.6 m | 6.4 m | 8.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | 54.2 m | 66.8 m | 65.7 m | 63.7 m | -38.5 m | 95.6 m | 68.6 m | 88.0 m |
| Income tax | 13.0 m | 16.7 m | 14.0 m | 18.9 m | 8.3 m | 22.0 m | -5.7 m | 57.7 m |
| Net income | 41.0 m | 49.6 m | 51.2 m | 44.4 m | -47.4 m | 73.3 m | 73.9 m | 30.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.76 | 0.92 ≈ | 0.95 | 0.83 | -0.90 | 1.35 ≈ | 1.37 | 0.56 |
| Operating cash flow | 60.7 m ≈ | 54.8 m | 27.7 m | 1.4 m ≈ | 24.7 m ≈ | 194.9 m | 41.4 m | -98.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 16.0 m ≈ | 27.7 m | 27.5 m | 31.9 m ≈ | 41.8 m ≈ | 42.1 m | 46.4 m | 42.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 4.5 m ≈ | 18.6 m | 5.1 m | 600.0 k ≈ | 1.1 m ≈ | 200.0 k | 64.6 m | 1.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 73 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 5.6, median 28.2, max 100.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.2% | −10.7% | −8.5% | +13.4% | +12.1% | +4.8% | +7.3% | +23.1% |
| Net income | 84.8 m | -2.2 m | -210.7 m | 85.2 m | 153.1 m | 161.5 m | 184.0 m | 121.5 m |
| Net income YoY | +282.0% | −102.6% | unavailable | unavailable | +79.7% | +5.5% | +13.9% | −34.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.65 | -0.04 | -4.11 | 1.62 | 2.90 | 3.03 | 3.42 | 2.26 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +283.7% | −102.4% | unavailable | unavailable | +79.0% | +4.5% | +12.9% | −33.9% |
| net % | 3.8% | -0.1% | -11.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
| Free cash flow | 29.4 m | -13.4 m | 117.1 m | -28.8 m | 56.8 m | 126.9 m | 129.3 m | 105.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 73.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 7.5 m USD
- Net debt
- -66.0 m USD
- Equity
- 1.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 1.94x
- ROE
- 11.5%
- ROA
- 5.3%
- FCF margin
- 3.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 293.4 m | 309.3 m | 389.4 m | 525.6 m | 643.8 m | 731.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Research & development | 46.3 m | 50.3 m | 44.0 m | 42.0 m | 34.9 m | 29.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| SG&A | 210.9 m | 215.1 m | 234.0 m | 273.9 m | 332.1 m | 360.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | -97.7 m | 119.2 m | 150.4 m | 240.7 m | 283.5 m | 342.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 68.6 m | 54.8 m | 54.5 m | 56.1 m | 77.7 m | 79.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -29.1 m ≈ | 174.0 m ≈ | 204.9 m ≈ | 296.8 m ≈ | 361.2 m ≈ | 422.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 19.4 m | 15.6 m | 20.7 m | 24.1 m | 26.4 m | 31.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -119.3 m | 101.5 m | 125.3 m | 214.6 m | 254.0 m | 186.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 90.2 m | 15.2 m | -28.3 m | 51.2 m | 68.5 m | 63.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Net income | -210.7 m | 85.2 m | 153.1 m | 161.5 m | 184.0 m | 121.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -4.11 | 1.62 | 2.90 | 3.03 | 3.42 | 2.26 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 51.3 m | 52.5 m | 52.8 m | 53.4 m | 53.9 m | 53.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 37.8 m | 45.2 m | 67.1 m | 60.1 m | 71.6 m | 73.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 267.9 m | 367.5 m | 398.0 m | 422.9 m | 478.9 m | 731.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 195.6 m | 281.2 m | 324.9 m | 357.9 m | 340.9 m | 506.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 644.8 m | 757.6 m | 846.4 m | 894.0 m | 961.2 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 269.9 m | 315.4 m | 314.5 m | 365.7 m | 390.5 m | 520.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 170.7 m | 168.1 m | 165.6 m | 230.9 m | 233.9 m | 292.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 100.6 m | 90.3 m | 81.1 m | 188.3 m | 146.7 m | 197.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 233.9 m | 325.8 m | 332.8 m | 283.4 m | 290.8 m | 464.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.4 m | 7.7 m | 3.7 m | 12.0 m | 9.3 m | 7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 469.2 m | 494.5 m | 507.1 m | 545.8 m | 541.0 m | 728.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 920.6 m | 968.9 m | 966.3 m | 1.1 bn | 999.4 m | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 356.1 m | 458.1 m | 599.6 m | 755.5 m | 918.2 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 149.8 m | 11.5 m | 107.5 m | 214.6 m | 213.3 m | 248.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 32.7 m | 40.3 m | 50.7 m | 87.7 m | 84.0 m | 143.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 117.1 m ≈ | -28.8 m ≈ | 56.8 m ≈ | 126.9 m ≈ | 129.3 m ≈ | 105.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -31.3 m | -51.0 m | -50.4 m | -283.4 m | -86.6 m | -321.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -145.1 m | 39.2 m | -33.3 m | 62.7 m | -113.6 m | 73.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 9.0 m | 17.7 m | 30.9 m | 7.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 45 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet87
- Valuation9
- Quality59
- Growth48
- Returns18
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.65 – 68.19 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)5.65 – 7.16 (Mid 6.24)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 10.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA56.96 – 68.19 (Mid 63.68)12 companies used · median multiple 7.2x · quartiles 6.4x – 7.8xALV, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CPS, DCH, GNTX, LCII, LEA, PATK, PHIN, SMP
- Peers: P/E27.31 – 45.71 (Mid 35.92)19 companies used · median multiple 15.1x · quartiles 11.5x – 19.2xADNT, ALSN, ALV, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CAAS, DAN, DORM, GNTX, GTX, LCII, LEA, MGA, PATK, PHIN, SMP, STRT, VC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 45/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 21.6% | 95 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.6% | 59 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -7.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.5% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.3x | 73 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 41.3x | 5 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 11.4x | 20 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.3% | 18 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial18/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation9/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MODINE MANUFACTURING CO (MOD). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.2 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 23.1%; net margin 3.6%; ROE 11.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.3x.
The estimated value range is 27.31–45.71 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 35.92 USD, the price of 98.56 USD leaves a potential of -63.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -174.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 45/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 21.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.5%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.3x
- Interest coverage: 11.3x
- Current ratio: 2.2x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -7.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -8.0%
- P/E (TTM): 41.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 11.4x
- FCF yield: -0.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.3%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 34 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGAMagna International Inc. | 18.4 bn | 22.4 | 6.9% | 2.0% | −1.9% | +34% / +22% |
| BWABorgwarner Inc. | 10.1 bn | 21.5 | 8.2% | 3.4% | +1.6% | +17% / +50% |
| ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 17.4 | 29.7% | 11.1% | −6.7% | +36% / +125% |
| ALVAutoliv, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 15.1 | 24.8% | 5.6% | +4.1% | +7% / +21% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −11% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Co | 5.2 bn | 41.3 | 11.4% | 3.6% | +23.1% | −33% / +134% |
| GNTXGentex Corporation | 4.4 bn | 11.0 | 16.4% | 15.5% | +9.6% | −9% / −32% |
| DORMDorman Products, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 21.2 | 13.3% | 9.3% | +6.0% | +8% / +98% |
| ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.3 | 55.8% | 11.3% | +5.7% | −5% / +119% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PATKPatrick Industries Inc | 2.7 bn | 20.1 | 13.0% | 3.7% | +6.3% | −22% / +55% |
| PHINPhinia Inc. | 2.6 bn | 14.5 | 12.2% | 5.2% | +2.4% | +33% / +181% |
| DANDana Incorporated | 2.6 bn | 2.4 | 71.4% | 14.6% | −3.0% | +6% / +80% |
| LCIILci Industries | 2.5 bn | 12.1 | 15.0% | 5.2% | +10.2% | −8% / −4% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| THRMGentherm Incorporated | 1.6 bn | 105.3 | 1.3% | 0.6% | +2.9% | −13% / −32% |
| ADNTAdient plc | 1.3 bn | 28.5 | 2.7% | 0.3% | −1.0% | −12% / −47% |
| DCHDauch Corporation | 1.1 bn | — | -15.2% | -2.0% | −4.7% | −27% / −31% |
| SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 15.1 | 9.9% | 3.8% | +22.4% | +22% / +28% |
| AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc. | 661.5 m | — | — | -150.1% | +99.4% | −15% / +240% |
| CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 391.6 m | — | — | -2.0% | +0.4% | −29% / +24% |
| HLLYHolley Inc. | 351.6 m | 35.3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | +1.9% | −32% / −30% |
| KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc. | 287.8 m | — | -30.5% | -107.4% | −31.5% | −63% / −88% |
| STRTStrattec Security Corp | 258.5 m | 15.6 | 7.2% | 2.9% | +2.5% | −14% / +201% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MOD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 63.77 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 112.39 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 168.81 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 70.84 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 139.60 Total return 42% · Per year 12% | 228.92 Total return 132% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 78.69 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 173.40 Total return 76% · Per year 12% | 310.43 Total return 215% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 34.90
- Net margin± 24.43
- Annual revenue growth± 18.80
- Annual dilution± 2.05
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Modine Manufacturing Company designs and makes thermal management solutions for data centers, commercial HVAC and vehicles. It is shifting toward a pure-play climate solutions profile as AI-driven demand for data center cooling grows quickly and the spin-off of Performance Technologies approaches, with fiscal 2026 net sales of 3.2 billion USD 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- More than a century of thermal management experience and a broad range of proprietary technologies that support customized solutions for customers 1.
- Strong growth in the Data Centers segment and record order intake that has kept rising 13.
- Operational discipline based on 80/20 principles that has improved margins in recent years 1.
Weaknesses
- Gross margin declined in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 because of material costs and production inefficiencies 2.
- Dependence on a small number of large customers makes sales vulnerable to losing a major account 1.
- Net debt rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and free cash flow was negative because of capacity investment 3.
Opportunities
- Demand for data center cooling could keep growing if investment in AI infrastructure continues 1.
- The Performance Technologies spin-off and combination with Gentherm could focus the company on its fastest-growing markets 12.
- Energy efficiency rules and the phase-out of fluorinated gases could create demand for new HVAC equipment 1.
Risks
- Data center component shortagehigh
Demand exceeds supplier capacity, and delays could affect production schedules and deliveries in the first quarter 12.
- Dependence on large customershigh
A small number of customers account for a large share of sales, and losing a major customer could affect results 1.
- Tariffs and trade policymedium
Changes in tariffs or trade agreements could raise costs and reduce demand, and uncertainty over refunds persists 1.
- Completion of the Gentherm transactionmedium
The deal depends on shareholder approvals and other closing conditions, and estimated additional costs could increase 2.
- Raw material price volatilitymedium
Rising prices for aluminum, copper and steel can hurt margins because hedges only partly offset them 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for data centers stays strong, the segment could keep growing and improve overall profitability.
- The Performance Technologies spin-off could leave the company focused on climate solutions with a higher growth profile.
- Record orders and a growing backlog could support results over the medium term if supply stabilizes.
What would break the thesis
- If component shortages persist, Data Centers margins could stay under pressure and deliveries could be delayed.
- Concentration of sales among a few large customers could expose the company to major revenue losses.
- Rising net debt and large capacity investments could limit free cash flow in the coming period.
What to watch
- Gross margin trend in Data Centers and resolution of supply constraintsQ2 2027
- Closing of the Gentherm transaction and the updated fiscal 2027 outlookQ4 2026
- Pace of order intake and backlog growth in Data Centers2027
- Impact of tariffs and trade policy on material costsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Modine, founded in Wisconsin in 1916, sells heating, cooling and ventilation solutions for commercial, industrial and HVAC&R markets, as well as heat transfer systems for on- and off-highway vehicles 1. Its primary customers include data center operators, healthcare and school facilities, HVAC OEMs and truck and bus OEMs 1. In fiscal 2026 net sales rose 23 percent to 3.2 billion USD, mainly driven by the Climate Solutions segment 1.
The product mix shifted quickly: Data Centers reached 35 percent of fiscal 2026 sales, up from 25 percent a year earlier, while On-Highway Applications fell from 28 to 23 percent 1. The company operates on four continents and employs about 13,200 people 1. Its largest customers are concentrated, as the ten largest accounted for 49 percent of net sales 1.
In January 2026 Modine agreed to spin off its Performance Technologies segment and combine it with Gentherm in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction, making it a pure-play climate company 12. The deal is expected to close by the end of calendar 2026, subject to Gentherm shareholder approval 2.
Segments
Market context
Demand for data center cooling is driven by AI growth and high-performance computing, which create large cooling needs 1. Commercial and residential HVAC&R markets are expected to be relatively flat in fiscal 2027, while North American heating markets grow modestly 1.
The commercial and off-highway vehicle markets are weak, which hurt Performance Technologies sales 13. Tariffs and trade policy uncertainty could change costs and demand, although the U.S. Supreme Court ruled certain 2025 tariffs invalid 1.
Trends
- Strong demand for data centerstailwind
AI growth and high-performance computing increase demand for cooling solutions, and Modine has expanded production capacity 1.
- Supply constraintsheadwind
Component demand exceeds supplier capacity, and shortages are affecting production schedules and margins in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 12.
- Climate and efficiency regulationmixed
Stricter efficiency rules and the phase-out of fluorinated gases support demand for new products but may require additional investment 1.
- Trade policy and tariffsmixed
Tariffs and trade uncertainty could raise material costs, while some tariffs were ruled invalid, leaving uncertainty over refunds 12.
Competitive position
Modine competes with many manufacturers of heat transfer and HVAC&R solutions, some of which are divisions of larger companies 1. Competitors with plants in regions with lower labor costs and tax rates could gain share, and supply chain consolidation may bring new competitors 1.
HVAC&R OEM customers face significant international competition and maintain global footprints, which pushes Modine to invest in geographic expansion 1. Providing research, design and validation support can strengthen customer relationships 1.
- GenthermTHRM
Partner in the Reverse Morris Trust transaction and a global leader in thermal management and pneumatic comfort technologies; Modine shareholders would own about 40 percent of the combined company 2.
- Divisions of larger industrial groups
Modine notes that many competitors are divisions of larger companies, without naming them, which makes direct share comparisons hard 1.
- International manufacturers with lower costs
Companies in regions with lower labor costs and tax rates present growing competitive pressure, according to the company's description 1.
- Vertically integrated suppliers
Consolidation and vertical integration in the supply base may introduce new or restructured competitors in Modine's markets 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Gentherm (THRM) Shareholders Approve Modine Merger, Clear for October CloseYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 13 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement13 Oct 2026
- Current report (amendment)07 Oct 2026Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Oct 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Aug 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / Modine Manufacturing Company · 27 May 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Modine Manufacturing Company · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Modine Manufacturing Company · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.