olivLaw · US equity research
Autoliv, Inc. ALV
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories · SIC 3714 · Vertical: Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714)
Autoliv is a leading global supplier of passive safety systems for vehicles, including airbags, seatbelts and steering wheels. The company holds an estimated global share of about 44 percent, and its sales reached roughly 10.8 billion dollars in 2025. Its 2026 results are shaped by volatile car production, tariffs and raw material costs.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) stock was 125.68 USD (+5.29% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.0 bn USD, P/E 15.1 on diluted EPS of 8.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.77%, beta 0.96, 52-week range 100.34–131.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.7 bn USD (−0.5% YoY), net income of 155.0 m USD (−11.4% YoY), diluted EPS 2.13 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 108.80 – 123.50
- above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 12.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 117.06 / 118.17
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.49 / 0.42
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.1% | −1.1% | +13.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.1% | −0.5% | +2.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +3.7% | +4.4% | −0.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.9% | +12.3% | −6.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +5.0% | +13.5% | −8.6 pp | −12.2% |
| 3 years | +30.2% | +76.4% | −46.2 pp | −3.9% |
| 5 years | +24.0% | +63.7% | −39.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Gross profit | 550.0 m | 478.0 m | 501.0 m | 522.0 m | 572.0 m | 526.0 m | 509.0 m | 496.0 m |
| Research & development | 73.0 m | 95.0 m | 107.0 m | 117.0 m | 94.0 m | 120.0 m | 122.0 m | 99.0 m |
| SG&A | 131.0 m | 145.0 m | 145.0 m | 137.0 m | 144.0 m | 161.0 m | 138.0 m | 138.0 m |
| Operating income | 353.0 m | 254.0 m | 247.0 m | 267.0 m | 319.0 m | 237.0 m | 192.0 m | 254.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 98.0 m | 95.0 m | 100.0 m ≈ | 104.0 m ≈ | 108.0 m | 107.0 m | 115.0 m ≈ | 106.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 27.0 m | 25.0 m | 27.0 m | 25.0 m | 26.0 m | 26.0 m | 26.0 m | 23.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 321.0 m | 233.0 m | 221.0 m | 240.0 m | 293.0 m | 202.0 m | 154.0 m | 230.0 m |
| Income tax | 78.0 m | 65.0 m | 53.0 m | 65.0 m | 67.0 m | 60.0 m | 53.0 m | 75.0 m |
| Net income | 243.0 m | 167.0 m | 167.0 m | 175.0 m | 226.0 m | 141.0 m | 100.0 m | 155.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 3.08 ≈ | 2.14 | 2.16 | 2.28 | 2.98 ≈ | 1.88 | 1.35 | 2.13 |
| Operating cash flow | 420.0 m | 77.0 m | 278.0 m ≈ | 258.0 m ≈ | 544.0 m | -76.0 m | 435.0 m ≈ | 239.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 139.0 m | 102.0 m | 115.0 m | 106.0 m | 118.0 m | 85.0 m | 95.0 m | 115.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 55.0 m | 54.0 m | 54.0 m ≈ | 65.0 m ≈ | 65.0 m | 65.0 m | 65.0 m ≈ | 62.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 48 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 9.4, median 15.3, max 43.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +6.7% | −1.5% | −12.9% | +10.5% | +7.4% | +18.5% | −0.8% | +4.1% |
| Net income | 190.4 m | 462.0 m | 187.0 m | 435.0 m | 423.0 m | 488.0 m | 646.0 m | 735.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −55.4% | +142.6% | −59.5% | +132.6% | −2.8% | +15.4% | +32.4% | +13.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.18 | 5.29 | 2.14 | 4.96 | 4.85 | 5.72 | 8.04 | 9.55 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −55.2% | +142.7% | −59.5% | +131.8% | −2.2% | +17.9% | +40.6% | +18.8% |
| net % | 2.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| Free cash flow | 30.6 m | 158.0 m | 505.0 m | 296.0 m | 128.0 m | 409.0 m | 480.0 m | 716.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 604.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.83x
- Current ratio
- 1.05x
- ROE
- 30.2%
- ROA
- 8.9%
- FCF margin
- 6.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.4 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.2 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 376.0 m | 391.0 m | 390.0 m | 425.0 m | 398.0 m | 413.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 389.0 m | 432.0 m | 440.0 m | 500.0 m | 530.0 m | 571.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 382.0 m | 675.0 m | 659.0 m | 690.0 m | 979.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 371.0 m | 394.0 m | 363.0 m | 378.0 m | 387.0 m | 407.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 753.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 73.0 m | 60.0 m | 60.0 m | 93.0 m | 108.0 m | 103.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 291.0 m | 614.0 m | 603.0 m | 612.0 m | 875.0 m | 986.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 103.0 m | 177.0 m | 178.0 m | 123.0 m | 227.0 m | 250.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 187.0 m | 435.0 m | 423.0 m | 488.0 m | 646.0 m | 735.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.14 | 4.96 | 4.85 | 5.72 | 8.04 | 9.55 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 87.5 m | 87.7 m | 87.2 m | 85.2 m | 80.4 m | 76.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 1.88 | 2.58 | 2.66 | 2.74 | 3.12 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 bn | 969.0 m | 594.0 m | 498.0 m | 330.0 m | 604.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 798.0 m | 777.0 m | 969.0 m | 1.0 bn | 921.0 m | 992.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 14.0 m | 8.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.2 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 302.0 m | 346.0 m | 711.0 m | 538.0 m | 387.0 m | 419.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 849.0 m | 754.0 m | 713.0 m | 982.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 344.0 m | 458.0 m | 585.0 m | 573.0 m | 579.0 m | 441.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 505.0 m ≈ | 296.0 m ≈ | 128.0 m ≈ | 409.0 m ≈ | 480.0 m ≈ | 716.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -340.0 m | -454.0 m | -485.0 m | -569.0 m | -563.0 m | -423.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 160.0 m | -469.0 m | -531.0 m | -490.0 m | -680.0 m | -369.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 54.0 m | 165.0 m | 224.0 m | 225.0 m | 219.0 m | 238.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 9.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet57
- Valuation66
- Quality87
- Growth79
- Returns64
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 41.00 – 257.06 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)148.62 – 257.06 (Mid 189.17)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 800.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -8.0%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA96.31 – 183.31 (Mid 125.26)15 companies used · median multiple 7.5x · quartiles 6.0x – 10.4xAPTV, ATMU, BWA, CAAS, CPS, DCH, DORM, GNTX, LCII, LEA, MOD, PATK, PHIN, SMP, THRM
- Peers: P/E95.55 – 172.28 (Mid 125.90)19 companies used · median multiple 15.1x · quartiles 11.5x – 20.6xADNT, ALSN, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CAAS, DAN, DORM, GNTX, GTX, HLLY, LCII, LEA, MGA, PATK, PHIN, SMP, STRT, VC
- Dividend discount (DDM)41.00 – 55.14 (Mid 47.03)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 16.6% | 81 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.6% | 82 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 117.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.9% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 25.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 47 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 19 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 15.1x | 57 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.5x | 47 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.8% | 41 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 35.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
AUTOLIV, INC. (ALV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 10.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.1%; net margin 5.6%; ROE 24.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.2x.
The estimated value range is 95.93–177.80 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 125.58 USD, the price of 125.68 USD leaves a potential of -0.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -0.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 16.6%
- Net margin: 5.6%
- FCF conversion: 117.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 25.3%
- Interest coverage: 9.9x
- FCF yield: 8.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 35.3%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 34 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGAMagna International Inc. | 18.4 bn | 22.4 | 6.9% | 2.0% | −1.9% | +34% / +22% |
| BWABorgwarner Inc. | 10.1 bn | 21.5 | 8.2% | 3.4% | +1.6% | +17% / +50% |
| ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 17.4 | 29.7% | 11.1% | −6.7% | +36% / +125% |
| ALVAutoliv, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 15.1 | 24.8% | 5.6% | +4.1% | +5% / +30% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −11% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Co | 5.2 bn | 41.3 | 11.4% | 3.6% | +23.1% | −39% / +100% |
| GNTXGentex Corporation | 4.4 bn | 11.0 | 16.4% | 15.5% | +9.6% | −9% / −32% |
| DORMDorman Products, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 21.2 | 13.3% | 9.3% | +6.0% | +8% / +98% |
| ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.3 | 55.8% | 11.3% | +5.7% | −5% / +119% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PATKPatrick Industries Inc | 2.7 bn | 20.1 | 13.0% | 3.7% | +6.3% | −22% / +55% |
| PHINPhinia Inc. | 2.6 bn | 14.5 | 12.2% | 5.2% | +2.4% | +33% / +181% |
| DANDana Incorporated | 2.6 bn | 2.4 | 71.4% | 14.6% | −3.0% | +6% / +80% |
| LCIILci Industries | 2.5 bn | 12.1 | 15.0% | 5.2% | +10.2% | −8% / −4% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| THRMGentherm Incorporated | 1.6 bn | 105.3 | 1.3% | 0.6% | +2.9% | −13% / −32% |
| ADNTAdient plc | 1.3 bn | 28.5 | 2.7% | 0.3% | −1.0% | −12% / −47% |
| DCHDauch Corporation | 1.1 bn | — | -15.2% | -2.0% | −4.7% | −27% / −31% |
| SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 15.1 | 9.9% | 3.8% | +22.4% | +22% / +28% |
| AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc. | 661.5 m | — | — | -150.1% | +99.4% | −15% / +240% |
| CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 391.6 m | — | — | -2.0% | +0.4% | −29% / +24% |
| HLLYHolley Inc. | 351.6 m | 35.3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | +1.9% | −32% / −30% |
| KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc. | 287.8 m | — | -30.5% | -107.4% | −31.5% | −63% / −88% |
| STRTStrattec Security Corp | 258.5 m | 15.6 | 7.2% | 2.9% | +2.5% | −14% / +201% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ALV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 78.79 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 139.13 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 209.35 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 80.27 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 159.12 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 262.35 Total return 121% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 81.78 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 181.99 Total return 62% · Per year 10% | 328.76 Total return 185% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 39.78
- Net margin± 27.85
- Annual revenue growth± 22.33
- Annual dilution± 2.34
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Autoliv is a leading global supplier of passive safety systems for vehicles, including airbags, seatbelts and steering wheels. The company holds an estimated global share of about 44 percent, and its sales reached roughly 10.8 billion dollars in 2025 1. Its 2026 results are shaped by volatile car production, tariffs and raw material costs 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- Recognised market leadership in passive safety, with a high global share and an industrial footprint across several continents 1.
- A well-documented quality management system and zero-defect policy that support relationships with major automakers 1.
- Solid operating cash generation that allows capital to be returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks 23.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on car production volumes, which are cyclical and can fall quickly in some regions 1.
- Exposure to raw material and labour costs, which can press margins if customer recoveries are partial 13.
- High concentration on a single reportable segment, so diversification depends on newer units still in development 1.
Opportunities
- Rising safety content per vehicle in medium and low income markets, where airbags and advanced seatbelts still have large fitment potential 1.
- Deeper partnerships with Chinese and Indian automakers, where the company has reported strong sales growth 12.
- Development of solutions for autonomous and electric vehicles, which could require new and more advanced passive systems 1.
Risks
- Cyclicality of car productionhigh
Sales depend directly on global light vehicle production, and a significant regional decline could affect results and financial condition 1.
- Product liability and recallshigh
Defects or recalls can create costs not covered by insurance, with effects on margins and reputation 1.
- Pricing pressure from customersmedium
Customers can demand price reductions and frequent renegotiations, which could erode margins over the long term 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and tariffsmedium
New tariffs and hostilities in the Persian Gulf can increase cost and demand uncertainty, and recovering those costs from customers is not assured 23.
- Volatility of customer call-offslow
Short-notice changes to production schedules can affect production efficiency and profitability 23.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The leading global position and stable market share could support revenue growth above automotive production if safety content per vehicle keeps rising 1.
- Solid cash generation and the buyback programme could support shareholder value if operating results remain stable 23.
- Rapid growth in India and China could offset weakness in mature regions, especially if new model launches continue 12.
What would break the thesis
- If car production falls more than expected, revenue and margins could be significantly affected 13.
- Rising raw material and labour costs could reduce operating margins if customer recoveries remain partial 23.
- Competition from vertically integrated suppliers and large groups could limit gains in market share 1.
What to watch
- Fourth-quarter results and confirmation of the adjusted operating margin guidanceQ4 2026
- Development of raw material costs and the degree of recovery from customers2027
- Pace of orders from Chinese automakers and sales growth in India2027
- Investor Day in Shanghai with new medium-term financial targets2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Autoliv, Inc. is a Delaware corporation headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, functioning as a holding company with two principal subsidiaries, Autoliv AB and Autoliv ASP, Inc. 1. It develops, manufactures and supplies passive safety systems, including frontal and side airbag modules, pedestrian protection, steering wheels, inflator technologies, battery cut-off switches and seatbelts 1. Through Mobility Safety Solutions, the company extends its offering to commercial vehicles, battery switches and safety solutions for motorcycle and bicycle riders 1.
The company operates 62 production facilities in 23 countries and serves the world's largest car manufacturers 1. Its just-in-time delivery model requires assembly capacity close to customers, making capacity flexibility a competitive factor 1. Quality is central to its strategy through the Q5 initiative and a chain of four defense lines designed to prevent defects and recalls 1.
Segments
Mobility Safety Solutions
This unit extends the offering to passive safety for commercial vehicles, battery cut-off switches and solutions for motorcycle and bicycle riders 1. Management describes these products as still in development, with sales levels difficult to predict, so their results remain uncertain 1.
Market context
The passive safety market is driven by light vehicle production and content per vehicle 1. According to the company, the market could grow from about 24 billion dollars in 2025 to almost 26 billion over the next three years, based on internal estimates and the macro outlook 1. Autoliv's estimated global share is about 44 percent, and about 45 percent in seatbelts 1.
Global light vehicle production grew by about 3.9 percent in 2025, but growth was concentrated in regions with lower safety content, diluting the global average per vehicle 13. For 2026, the quarterly report assumes light vehicle production about 2 percent lower 3.
Trends
- Stricter safety regulations and crash teststailwind
Requirements from Euro NCAP, China NCAP and other programs push manufacturers to fit more airbags and advanced seatbelts, which could support safety content per vehicle 1.
- Tariffs and raw material costsheadwind
Tariffs and trade restrictions can affect costs and the ability to recover them from customers, and higher raw material prices in 2026 could compress margins if recoveries are partial 23.
- Shift to electric and autonomous vehiclesmixed
Electric vehicle sales excluding plug-in hybrids were estimated at about 1.7 billion dollars in 2025, and autonomous vehicles could bring roomier interiors that require more advanced passive safety systems 1.
Competitive position
Autoliv is the clear market leader in passive safety components and systems, with an estimated global share of about 44 percent 1. Competition comes from large groups such as ZF AG and Joyson Safety Systems, while Japan, South Korea and China have local suppliers closely tied to domestic automakers 1.
Some competitors have preferred status through relationships or ownership ties with certain customers, and vertically integrated producers such as BYD source much of their content in house 1. Autoliv seeks to defend its position through innovation, quality and a broad global footprint 1.
- ZF AG
Large global supplier of driveline and chassis technology, also active in passive safety technologies 1.
- Joyson Safety Systems
Subsidiary of Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp., resulting from the merger of Key Safety Systems and Takata 1.
- BYD Auto
Automaker with high vertical integration that partly supplies its own safety systems through the FinDreams Technology subsidiary 1.
- Local suppliers in Japan and South Korea
Companies such as Tokai Rika, Toyoda Gosei and Mobis, closely tied to domestic automakers in their regions 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report23 Oct 2026
- Current report23 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report17 Jul 2026
- Current report17 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 May 2026Exit or disposal costs · Material impairment · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report17 Apr 2026
- Current report17 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement25 Mar 2026
- Current report11 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Autoliv, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Autoliv, Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Autoliv, Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.