olivLaw · US equity research
bp p.l.c. BP
Petroleum Refining · SIC 2911 · Vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)
bp is an integrated energy company active in oil and gas production, refining, trading and the energy transition. In 2025 it held production steady and reduced net debt, while a new chief executive takes over in April 2026 amid lower oil prices. Underlying replacement cost profit reached 7.5 billion dollars.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, bp p.l.c. (BP) stock was 45.61 USD (−4.16% on the day), with beta 0.29, 52-week range 33.31–51.32 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 45.66 – 51.99
- below the lower band · %B -0.01 · band width 13.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 46.16 / 43.18
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.60 / 1.13
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.2% | −1.1% | +3.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.7% | −0.5% | +11.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.2% | +4.4% | −2.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.3% | +12.3% | +19.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +29.9% | +13.5% | +16.3 pp | +54.4% |
| 3 years | +26.0% | +76.4% | −50.4 pp | +83.1% |
| 5 years | +63.8% | +63.7% | +0.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | ⚠ 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 303.7 bn | 163.5 bn | 109.1 bn | 164.2 bn | 248.9 bn | 213.0 bn | 194.6 bn | 192.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +24.2% | — | −33.3% | +50.5% | +51.6% | −14.4% | −8.6% | −1.1% |
| Net income | 9.4 bn | 4.0 bn | -20.3 bn | 7.6 bn | -2.5 bn | 15.2 bn | 381.0 m | 55.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +176.9% | — | −604.3% | unavailable | −132.9% | unavailable | −97.5% | −85.6% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | — | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 3.1% | 2.5% | -18.6% | 4.6% | -1.0% | 7.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
The series breaks before 2019: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 36.6 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 54.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 18.0 bn USD
- Equity
- 74.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 278.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.74x
- Current ratio
- 1.26x
- ROE
- 0.1%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 109.1 bn | 164.2 bn | 248.9 bn | 213.0 bn | 194.6 bn | 192.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 332.0 m | 266.0 m | 274.0 m | 298.0 m | 301.0 m | 274.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -21.7 bn | 18.1 bn | 18.0 bn | 27.3 bn | 11.3 bn | 12.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 14.9 bn | 14.8 bn | 14.3 bn | 15.9 bn | 16.6 bn | 17.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -6.9 bn ≈ | 32.9 bn ≈ | 32.4 bn ≈ | 43.3 bn ≈ | 27.9 bn ≈ | 30.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -24.9 bn | 15.2 bn | 15.4 bn | 23.7 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -4.2 bn | 6.7 bn | 16.8 bn | 7.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -20.3 bn | 7.6 bn | -2.5 bn | 15.2 bn | 381.0 m | 55.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 31.1 bn | 30.7 bn | 29.2 bn | 33.0 bn | 39.2 bn | 36.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 17.9 bn | 27.1 bn | 34.0 bn | 31.1 bn | 27.1 bn | 26.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 16.9 bn | 23.7 bn | 28.1 bn | 22.8 bn | 23.2 bn | 22.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 73.0 bn | 92.6 bn | 107.7 bn | 104.1 bn | 102.8 bn | 101.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 114.8 bn | 112.9 bn | 106.0 bn | 104.7 bn | 100.2 bn | 98.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 12.5 bn | 12.4 bn | 12.0 bn | 12.5 bn | 14.9 bn | 10.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 6.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 10.2 bn | 10.0 bn | 9.6 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 267.7 bn | 287.3 bn | 288.1 bn | 280.3 bn | 282.2 bn | 278.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 36.0 bn | 52.6 bn | 64.0 bn | 61.2 bn | 58.4 bn | 56.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 63.3 bn | 55.6 bn | 43.7 bn | 48.7 bn | 55.1 bn | 54.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 59.8 bn | 80.3 bn | 99.0 bn | 86.1 bn | 82.2 bn | 80.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 182.1 bn | 196.8 bn | 205.1 bn | 194.8 bn | 203.9 bn | 204.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 85.6 bn | 90.4 bn | 83.0 bn | 85.5 bn | 78.3 bn | 74.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 12.2 bn | 23.6 bn | 40.9 bn | 32.0 bn | 27.3 bn | 24.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -7.9 bn | -5.7 bn | -13.7 bn | -14.9 bn | -13.3 bn | -11.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 4.0 bn | -18.1 bn | -28.0 bn | -13.4 bn | -7.3 bn | -15.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 776.0 m | 3.2 bn | 10.0 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.1 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 11.4% | 14 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.0% | 18 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 38 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 39 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BP PLC (BP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 192.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.1%; net margin 0.0%; ROE 0.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 11.4%
- Net margin: 0.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.2%
- Interest coverage: 2.5x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corporation | 701.6 bn | 27.7 | 9.8% | 7.6% | −5.0% | +46% / +65% |
| CVXChevron Corp | 428.7 bn | 20.8 | 12.2% | 9.6% | −6.8% | +44% / +51% |
| COPConocoPhillips | 164.5 bn | 18.1 | 14.2% | 14.7% | +7.7% | +54% / +18% |
| EQNREquinor Asa | 107.0 bn | 22.1 | 12.2% | 4.7% | +2.6% | +87% / +34% |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 106.9 bn | 7.7 | 72.6% | 8.4% | −4.4% | +103% / +163% |
| VLOValero Energy Corp | 101.9 bn | 8.2 | 50.1% | 8.4% | −5.5% | +107% / +191% |
| PSXPhillips 66 | 101.3 bn | 8.3 | 41.1% | 7.5% | −7.5% | +90% / +101% |
| YPFYPF Sociedad Anonima | 16.4 bn | — | -7.4% | -4.5% | −4.4% | +13% / +151% |
| CVICvr Energy, Inc | 4.3 bn | 16.3 | 27.5% | 2.7% | −5.9% | +25% / +35% |
| IEPIcahn Enterprises L.P. | 4.0 bn | — | — | -9.4% | −3.6% | −34% / −68% |
| DKDelek Us Holdings, Inc. | 4.0 bn | 18.2 | 62.6% | 1.9% | −9.5% | +69% / +141% |
| CLMTCalumet, Inc. | 3.8 bn | — | — | -3.0% | −1.2% | +126% / +153% |
| SUNCSunococorp LLC | 3.4 bn | 23.8 | — | 0.4% | +11.1% | +26% / unavailable |
| IMOImperial Oil Limited | — | — | 25.2% | 10.9% | −8.6% | +29% / +126% |
| SUNSunoco LP | — | — | — | 2.9% | +11.1% | +15% / +18% |
| BPBp PLC | — | — | 0.1% | 0.0% | −1.1% | +30% / +26% |
| PBFPbf Energy Inc. | — | 3.2 | 41.1% | 7.0% | −11.4% | +111% / +64% |
| SUSuncor Energy Inc | — | — | 13.2% | 11.3% | −4.6% | +61% / +118% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Oct 2026).
In brief
bp is an integrated energy company active in oil and gas production, refining, trading and the energy transition. In 2025 it held production steady and reduced net debt, while a new chief executive takes over in April 2026 amid lower oil prices. Underlying replacement cost profit reached 7.5 billion dollars 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company reached record upstream plant reliability and refining availability, pointing to solid operational execution.
- An integrated portfolio from extraction through to trading gives flexibility when markets shift.
- Reserve discoveries in 2025 lifted the proved reserves replacement ratio substantially.
Weaknesses
- Underlying profits fell from the prior year, reflecting sensitivity to oil and gas prices.
- Net debt remains elevated, and the share buyback was suspended to strengthen the balance sheet.
- Return on capital employed is still below the company's target, indicating efficiency challenges.
Opportunities
- Rising electricity and data centre demand could open opportunities in renewables and natural gas.
- Non-core asset sales could simplify the portfolio and reduce costs if completed.
- Better refining margins could support profits in the customers & products segment.
Threats
- A surplus of oil supply could keep prices low and weigh on upstream revenue.
- Regulatory pressure and climate policy shifts could raise compliance costs.
- Geopolitical tensions can disrupt energy markets and supply chains.
Risks
- Operational safetyhigh
Incidents in US retail operations resulted in fatalities, and process safety risks remain high across the industry.
- Price volatilityhigh
Revenue is sensitive to oil and gas prices, which can fluctuate significantly.
- Debt and balance sheetmedium
The level of net debt could limit financial flexibility if cash flows decline.
- Energy transition and regulationmedium
Climate policies and regulation could impose extra costs or reduce demand for fossil products.
- Change in leadershiplow
The new chief executive taking office in 2026 could shift strategic priorities.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If operational execution stays solid and the cost reduction programme advances, cash flows could grow meaningfully.
- Record reliability and reserve discoveries could support production over the medium term.
- Portfolio simplification and asset sales could reduce debt and improve returns on capital.
What would break the thesis
- If oil prices remain low, upstream profits could stay below earlier levels.
- Elevated net debt and the suspended buyback could slow a return to the target level of returns.
- Safety incidents and regulatory pressure could generate unforeseen costs.
What to watch
- Delivery of the structural cost reduction programme2027
- Start of the new chief executive's tenure and any strategic changes2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Oct 2026).
The business
bp operates at the heart of the global energy system, supplying energy to customers around the world. The company is organised into three reportable segments: gas & low carbon energy, oil production & operations, and customers & products 1. Its stated purpose is 'delivering energy to the world, today and tomorrow' 1. In 2025, oil and gas production reached 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day 1.
Segments
Gas & low carbon energy
The segment covers gas production and trading, Archaea Energy, and solar, offshore wind, hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. Underlying profit fell from the prior year, and the US onshore wind business was sold in December 2025 1.
Oil production & operations
This segment comprises upstream activities that mainly produce crude oil, including bpx energy. Underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax was 9.4 billion dollars, below 2024 levels 1.
Trends
- Rising electricity demandtailwind
Electricity demand is growing faster than total energy demand, and data centres in the US could amplify this trend in the coming years 1.
- Lower oil pricesheadwind
Surplus supply pressed oil prices down, which could limit upstream profits if the trend continues 1.
- Improving refining marginstailwind
The refining indicator margin rose in the second half of the year, supported by tight product inventories and unplanned capacity outages 1.
- Delays in carbon capture and hydrogenmixed
High costs and slow enabling policy are slowing low carbon hydrogen and carbon capture projects, which could delay revenue from these activities 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with other large integrated oil and gas producers, particularly in upstream, refining and trading. Competitive pressure is most visible in retail fuels and in renewable energy, where many players are active 1.
- ShellSHEL
Large integrated energy company with comparable upstream, refining and retail activities, cited as a market reference.
- TotalEnergiesTTE
European integrated oil company active in production, refining and renewable power.
- Exxon MobilXOM
US integrated oil company with global upstream and refining operations.
- ChevronCVX
US integrated oil company with significant production and refining activities.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Sept 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / bp p.l.c. · 06 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.