olivLaw · US equity research
Suncor Energy Inc. SU
Petroleum Refining · SIC 2911 · Vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)
Suncor Energy Inc. is a Canadian integrated energy company whose common shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SU, and which files its annual report with the SEC on Form 40-F. The report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 contains audited financial statements and management's discussion and analysis, providing a starting point for assessing the company's activity.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) stock was 72.04 USD (−4.52% on the day), with beta 0.37, 52-week range 41.22–79.48 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 71.30 – 81.42
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 13.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 71.49 / 63.84
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.32 / 2.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.8% | −1.1% | +5.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.7% | −0.5% | +15.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +12.0% | +4.4% | +7.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +62.4% | +12.3% | +50.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +82.3% | +13.5% | +68.8 pp | +46.0% |
| 3 years | +113.5% | +76.4% | +37.0 pp | +64.2% |
| 5 years | +171.6% | +63.7% | +108.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ⚠ 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 39.0 bn | 39.0 bn | 25.1 bn | 39.1 bn | 62.9 bn | 52.2 bn | 54.9 bn | 52.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +21.2% | +0.0% | −35.7% | +56.1% | — | −17.0% | +5.1% | −4.6% |
| Net income | 3.3 bn | 2.9 bn | -4.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.3 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.9 bn |
| Net income YoY | −26.1% | −12.0% | −249.0% | unavailable | — | −8.6% | −27.5% | −1.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.02 | 1.86 | -2.83 | 2.77 | 6.53 | 6.33 | 4.72 | 4.85 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −24.6% | −7.9% | −252.2% | unavailable | — | −3.1% | −25.4% | +2.8% |
| net % | 8.4% | 7.4% | -17.2% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 11.0% | 11.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
The series breaks before 2022: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.7 bn CAD
- Financial debt
- 10.0 bn CAD
- Net debt
- 6.3 bn CAD
- Equity
- 45.1 bn CAD
- Total assets
- 89.9 bn CAD
- Debt / equity
- 0.22x
- Current ratio
- 1.39x
- ROE
- 13.2%
- ROA
- 6.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (CAD)
Margins
Income statement · CAD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.1 bn | 39.1 bn | 62.9 bn | 52.2 bn | 54.9 bn | 52.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -6.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 12.3 bn | 10.6 bn | 8.2 bn | 7.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -4.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.3 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.83 | 2.77 | 6.53 | 6.33 | 4.72 | 4.85 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.94 | 2.11 | 2.22 | 2.35 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
Balance sheet · CAD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 9.4 bn | 11.0 bn | 14.5 bn | 13.8 bn | 14.3 bn | 14.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 68.1 bn | 65.5 bn | 59.8 bn | 64.0 bn | 64.3 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 436.0 m | 631.0 m | 694.0 m | 636.0 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Mar 2024verified |
| Total assets | 84.6 bn | 83.7 bn | 84.6 bn | 88.5 bn | 89.8 bn | 89.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 494.0 m | 997.0 m | 973.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 13.8 bn | 14.0 bn | 9.8 bn | 11.1 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 10.5 bn | 10.4 bn | 12.9 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 35.8 bn | 36.6 bn | 39.4 bn | 43.3 bn | 44.5 bn | 45.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · CAD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investing cash flow | -4.5 bn | -4.0 bn | -4.8 bn | -6.5 bn | -6.5 bn | -6.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.8 bn | -7.5 bn | -11.2 bn | -6.0 bn | -7.9 bn | -6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 307.0 m | 2.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.3% | 94 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -5.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 49 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial49/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial94/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 52.4 bn CAD in 2025; YoY growth -4.6%; net margin 11.3%; ROE 13.2%.
The estimated value range is 31.57–66.24 CAD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.3%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -5.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.4%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corporation | 701.6 bn | 27.7 | 9.8% | 7.6% | −5.0% | +46% / +65% |
| CVXChevron Corp | 428.7 bn | 20.8 | 12.2% | 9.6% | −6.8% | +44% / +51% |
| COPConocoPhillips | 164.5 bn | 18.1 | 14.2% | 14.7% | +7.7% | +54% / +18% |
| EQNREquinor Asa | 107.0 bn | 22.1 | 12.2% | 4.7% | +2.6% | +87% / +34% |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 106.9 bn | 7.7 | 72.6% | 8.4% | −4.4% | +103% / +163% |
| VLOValero Energy Corp | 101.9 bn | 8.2 | 50.1% | 8.4% | −5.5% | +107% / +191% |
| PSXPhillips 66 | 101.3 bn | 8.3 | 41.1% | 7.5% | −7.5% | +90% / +101% |
| YPFYPF Sociedad Anonima | 16.4 bn | — | -7.4% | -4.5% | −4.4% | +13% / +151% |
| CVICvr Energy, Inc | 4.3 bn | 16.3 | 27.5% | 2.7% | −5.9% | +25% / +35% |
| IEPIcahn Enterprises L.P. | 4.0 bn | — | — | -9.4% | −3.6% | −34% / −68% |
| DKDelek Us Holdings, Inc. | 4.0 bn | 18.2 | 62.6% | 1.9% | −9.5% | +69% / +141% |
| CLMTCalumet, Inc. | 3.8 bn | — | — | -3.0% | −1.2% | +126% / +153% |
| SUNCSunococorp LLC | 3.4 bn | 23.8 | — | 0.4% | +11.1% | +26% / unavailable |
| IMOImperial Oil Limited | — | — | 25.2% | 10.9% | −8.6% | +29% / +126% |
| SUNSunoco LP | — | — | — | 2.9% | +11.1% | +15% / +18% |
| BPBp PLC | — | — | 0.1% | 0.0% | −1.1% | +26% / +26% |
| PBFPbf Energy Inc. | — | 3.2 | 41.1% | 7.0% | −11.4% | +111% / +64% |
| SUSuncor Energy Inc | — | — | 13.2% | 11.3% | −4.6% | +82% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026).
In brief
Suncor Energy Inc. is a Canadian integrated energy company whose common shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SU, and which files its annual report with the SEC on Form 40-F. The report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 contains audited financial statements and management's discussion and analysis, providing a starting point for assessing the company's activity.
SWOT
Strengths
- Reporting is complete, with audited financial statements and management's discussion and analysis for fiscal 2025.
- Shares are listed on a major US exchange, which makes access easier for investors.
- Oil and gas reserves are evaluated by an independent third party, which increases the credibility of the data.
Weaknesses
- In the form as analyzed, the document does not provide detailed figures on revenue or profitability by segment.
- The business depends on hydrocarbon prices, which are volatile and hard to anticipate.
- Reporting spread across several exhibits can make analysis harder for a reader without experience.
Opportunities
- Greater transparency on reserves could help attract investors interested in verified data.
- If reporting remains consistent, year-on-year comparison could become a useful tool for investors.
- The governance framework and the compensation clawback policy could strengthen market confidence.
Threats
- A decline in oil prices could significantly reduce the company's revenue.
- Regulatory changes in the jurisdictions where it operates could bring additional costs.
- Pressures linked to the energy transition could affect long-term demand for the company's products.
Risks
- Volatility of hydrocarbon priceshigh
Revenue depends on oil and gas prices, which can change quickly and affect financial results.
- Operational risks in extractionmedium
Extraction and refining activities carry technical and safety risks that can generate unforeseen costs.
- Regulatory changesmedium
Environmental and reporting requirements can evolve, which could increase compliance costs.
- Dependence on reserve estimatesmedium
The value of reserves depends on technical estimates, and changes to them can influence perceptions of assets.
- Complexity of reportinglow
Extensive documentation across several exhibits can hide important details if not analyzed carefully.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If hydrocarbon prices remain favorable, the company's revenue could benefit from a well-documented production base.
- Independent evaluation of reserves and external audit can support the credibility of the data for investors.
- The New York Stock Exchange listing and the governance framework can attract investors seeking transparency.
What would break the thesis
- If oil prices fall, financial results could be significantly affected.
- Operational and regulatory risks can generate costs that reduce profit margins.
- In the form as analyzed, the document does not provide detailed segment figures, which limits assessment of each activity's performance.
What to watch
- Management's discussion and analysis for the next year and revenue trends2027
- Update of oil and gas reserves evaluated by GLJ Ltd.2027
- Changes in the number of common shares outstandingnext 10-K
- Any changes to the executive compensation recovery policy2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026).
The business
According to the Form 40-F filed on February 26, 2026, Suncor Energy Inc. is the registrant reporting for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 and submitting its documentation to the SEC. The filing includes an Annual Information Form dated February 25, 2026, audited consolidated financial statements and management's discussion and analysis for the same year. The company's common shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SU 1.
The structure of the document shows that the company's activity is reported through several exhibits: annual information, audited financial statements, management's discussion and analysis, and supplementary oil and gas disclosures. The auditor is KPMG LLP of Calgary, and GLJ Ltd. was also used for reserves 1. These elements are relevant for an investor following the transparency of operations.
As of December 31, 2025 there were 1,193,519,494 common shares issued and outstanding, and the company stated that it met its filing obligations over the preceding 12 months 1. The company also filed a clawback policy for executive compensation, which complements its governance framework 1.
Segments
Management's discussion and financial statements
Exhibit 99-3 contains management's discussion and analysis for fiscal 2025, and exhibit 99-2 the audited consolidated financial statements 1. These are the main sources for revenue and profitability figures for each segment.
Supplementary oil and gas disclosures
Exhibit 99-10 contains supplementary information on oil and gas, and reserves were evaluated by GLJ Ltd. 1. This section provides detail on extraction activity, relevant for assessing exposure to crude oil prices.
Market context
The document does not contain data on market size or market share, so no quantitative estimates can be drawn from this source. The refining and oil market is described in the filing only through the company's general reporting framework.
The energy market is influenced by regulatory conditions and demand, aspects not detailed in the filed form but that can be followed in management's discussion and analysis and in the annual information 1.
Trends
- Full reserves reportingmixed
Including a separate report on oil and gas reserves suggests heightened attention to the transparency of resources, which could support investor confidence if the data remains consistent from year to year.
- Executive compensation recovery frameworktailwind
The executive compensation clawback policy, included as an exhibit, reflects SEC governance requirements and can be a favorable element for perceptions of management.
- Dependence on oil pricesheadwind
The revenue of an integrated energy company depends on hydrocarbon price developments, which could become a negative factor if prices fall significantly.
- Reporting obligations under Form 40-Fmixed
The fact that the company reports under the Canadian system through Form 40-F, with XBRL interfaces, can improve data comparability but adds administrative complexity.
Competitive position
The document filed by Suncor Energy Inc. does not explicitly identify the company's competitors. Comparisons with other producers and refiners would need to be made from other sources, since the form focuses on financial reporting and governance elements.
The company's competitive position remains hard to measure from this document alone, but the inclusion of reserves evaluated by an independent third party is an element that can support credibility in comparison with other operators.
- Competitors not named in the source
The document does not name competitors; identifying them requires additional sources.
- Other integrated energy producers in North America
They are not mentioned in the analyzed form and so cannot be verified from the given source.
- Refiners in Canada and the United States
The source does not provide a list of them; comparison would require external data.
- Independent reserves evaluators
GLJ Ltd. appears in the document as the reserves evaluator, but is not a direct competitor.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Supreme Court Takes Up Boulder Climate Suit Against Exxon and SuncorOil Price · 05 Oct 2026 · EN
- Suncor Says Zebedee to Succeed Kruger as CEO Next AprilBloomberg Markets · 06 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 05 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 40-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Suncor Energy Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.