olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Calumet, Inc. CLMT

Petroleum Refining · SIC 2911 · Vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)

43.60USD−7.88% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLMT) manufactures and markets specialty branded products and renewable fuels from Indianapolis, operating twelve facilities across North America. The company closed 2025 with Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of 293.3 million USD, and its second quarter 2026 results are driven by strong specialty product margins and RINs dynamics.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) stock was 43.60 USD (−7.88% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.8 bn USD, beta 0.88, 52-week range 18.22–59.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+40.8% YoY), net income of -95.9 m USD, diluted EPS -1.09 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.8 bn USD
shares as of 07 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.55 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-3.55%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.88
Volatility (1y) 45%
52-week range
18.2259.05

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
29.8
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
43.69 – 61.71
below the lower band · %B -0.01 · band width 34.2%
SMA 50 / 200
53.63 / 38.91
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-2.21 / -1.20
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−22.2%−1.1%−21.1 pp—
3 months+8.3%−0.5%+8.7 pp—
6 months+26.4%+4.4%+22.0 pp—
Year to date+119.4%+12.3%+107.1 pp—
1 year+121.0%+13.5%+107.4 pp+46.0%
3 years+213.2%+76.4%+136.8 pp+64.2%
5 years+280.5%+63.7%+216.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−26.2%
17 Sept 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−61.9%
03 Jan 2025 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+30.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.4 bn USD
+40.8% YoY
Net income
-95.9 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-1.09
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-6.6% / -2.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.1 bn949.5 m993.9 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.0 bn1.0 bn1.4 bn
Cost of revenue1.1 bn865.9 m1.1 bn1.1 bn704.3 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.4 bn
Gross profit4.9 m83.6 m-81.4 m-43.6 m373.7 m-3.0 m-87.5 m18.3 m
Operating income-57.1 m22.7 m-48.7 m-101.0 m322.9 m-64.5 m-171.3 m-40.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation45.3 m12.4 m37.0 m47.9 m50.7 m3.5 m33.0 m45.5 m
Interest expense57.7 m61.4 m58.5 m52.9 m53.6 m50.8 m51.1 m52.0 m
Pre-tax income-99.9 m-41.3 m-161.6 m-147.7 m272.0 m-89.1 m-337.8 m-117.1 m
Income tax700.0 k-600.0 k400.0 k200.0 k-41.4 m-51.8 m-20.8 m-21.2 m
Net income-100.6 m-40.7 m-162.0 m-147.9 m313.4 m-37.3 m-317.0 m-95.9 m
Diluted EPS-1.18-0.47 ≈-1.87-1.703.61-0.43 ≈-3.64-1.09
Operating cash flow-15.5 m ≈-3.4 m-29.3 m-1.8 m ≈23.5 m ≈116.5 m-86.2 m92.3 m ≈
Capex19.4 m25.0 m17.6 m19.0 m23.5 m12.7 m13.2 m38.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2022202320242025
Revenue4.7 bn4.2 bn4.2 bn4.1 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable−10.8%+0.2%−1.2%
Net income-173.3 m48.1 m-222.0 m-33.8 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable−561.5%unavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-2.67-0.39
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-3.7%1.2%-5.3%-0.8%
Free cash flow-435.6 m-286.7 m-123.1 m56.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
125.1 m USD
Financial debt
2.2 bn USD
Net debt
2.1 bn USD
Equity
-732.7 m USD
Total assets
2.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.02x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-1.2%
FCF margin
1.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.2 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.7 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
451.7 m
2024
230.8 m
2025
245.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
267.2 m
2024
8.1 m
2025
108.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
146.8 m
2024
149.0 m
2025
148.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
414.0 m ≈
2024
157.1 m ≈
2025
257.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
221.7 m
2024
236.7 m
2025
215.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
49.7 m
2024
-221.2 m
2025
-126.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.6 m
2024
800.0 k
2025
-92.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
48.1 m
2024
-222.0 m
2025
-33.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
—
2024
-2.67
2025
-0.39

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
80.1 m
2024
83.1 m
2025
86.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
7.9 m
2024
38.1 m
2025
125.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
439.4 m
2024
416.3 m
2025
385.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
794.7 m
2024
766.0 m
2025
857.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
173.0 m
2024
173.0 m
2025
140.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
28.5 m
2024
22.0 m
2025
8.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
322.0 m
2024
320.8 m
2025
281.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
55.7 m
2024
35.5 m
2025
156.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.1 bn
2024
863.6 m
2025
840.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-490.3 m †
2024
-711.9 m †
2025
-732.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-14.9 m
2024
-46.4 m
2025
108.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
271.8 m
2024
76.7 m
2025
52.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-286.7 m ≈
2024
-123.1 m ≈
2025
56.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-271.8 m
2024
-76.7 m
2025
44.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
266.2 m
2024
154.3 m
2025
6.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
1,242.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
2.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
12.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
146.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
87.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
58.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
81.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
34 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
28 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
6.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
33.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
127.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
65.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
1.24
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

43.60 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
33.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 07 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 432derived 39

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
10.74
USD per share
Mid
20.01
USD per share
High
36.71
USD per share
Price: 43.60 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -54.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -117.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.74 – 36.71 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)10.74 – 36.71 (Mid 20.01)
    WACC 7.7% · starting FCFF 232.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 14.6%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · insufficient data
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-3.0%12 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-4.1%0 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet12.0x0 (vs peers)19%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.2x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x3 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation33.3x0 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuation1.5%19 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet1/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial12/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Calumet, Inc. /DE (CLMT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.2%; net margin -3.0%; net debt/EBITDA 12.0x.

The estimated value range is 10.74–36.71 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 20.01 USD, the price of 43.60 USD leaves a potential of -54.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -117.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -3.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 12.0x
  • Interest coverage: 0.2x
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 33.3x
  • FCF yield: 1.5%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 18.1x
EV/EBITDA
33.3x
vertical median 5.3x
above median (+530.3%)
P/S
0.8x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+30.8%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.9x
ROE
—
vertical median 19.7%
Net margin
-3.0%
vertical median 7.0%
below median (−142.7%)
EBIT margin
1.0%
vertical median 8.0%
below median (−87.2%)
Revenue YoY
-1.2%
vertical median -4.6%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
12.0x
vertical median 0.2x
above median (+5,252.2%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corporation701.6 bn27.79.8%7.6%−5.0%+46% / +65%
CVXChevron Corp428.7 bn20.812.2%9.6%−6.8%+44% / +51%
COPConocoPhillips164.5 bn18.114.2%14.7%+7.7%+54% / +18%
EQNREquinor Asa107.0 bn22.112.2%4.7%+2.6%+87% / +34%
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation106.9 bn7.772.6%8.4%−4.4%+103% / +163%
VLOValero Energy Corp101.9 bn8.250.1%8.4%−5.5%+107% / +191%
PSXPhillips 66101.3 bn8.341.1%7.5%−7.5%+90% / +101%
YPFYPF Sociedad Anonima16.4 bn—-7.4%-4.5%−4.4%+13% / +151%
CVICvr Energy, Inc4.3 bn16.327.5%2.7%−5.9%+25% / +35%
IEPIcahn Enterprises L.P.4.0 bn——-9.4%−3.6%−34% / −68%
DKDelek Us Holdings, Inc.4.0 bn18.262.6%1.9%−9.5%+69% / +141%
CLMTCalumet, Inc.3.8 bn——-3.0%−1.2%+121% / +213%
SUNCSunococorp LLC3.4 bn23.8—0.4%+11.1%+26% / unavailable
IMOImperial Oil Limited——25.2%10.9%−8.6%+29% / +126%
PBFPbf Energy Inc.—3.241.1%7.0%−11.4%+111% / +64%
BPBp PLC——0.1%0.0%−1.1%+26% / +26%
SUNSunoco LP———2.9%+11.1%+15% / +18%
SUSuncor Energy Inc——13.2%11.3%−4.6%+61% / +118%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CLMT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLMT) manufactures and markets specialty branded products and renewable fuels from Indianapolis, operating twelve facilities across North America. The company closed 2025 with Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of 293.3 million USD, and its second quarter 2026 results are driven by strong specialty product margins and RINs dynamics 13.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company runs an integrated model that converts crude into specialty products and fuels, and has improved operational reliability over recent years 12.
    • The specialty products platform has solid demand and a diversified customer base that supports results even in volatile periods 12.
    • A first-mover position in renewable fuels and access to Montana feedstocks give a strategic advantage in the region 12.

    Weaknesses

    • Net results have stayed negative in recent periods, influenced by non-cash RINs and derivative items 13.
    • The company depends on third-party pipelines and terminals, and their unavailability could reduce sales and cash flow 1.
    • Performance Brands margins were compressed in the second quarter of 2026 as feedstock costs rose faster than selling prices 3.

    Opportunities

    • Higher federal renewable fuel requirements could expand demand for Montana Renewables products 2.
    • Continued MaxSAF expansion and debt reduction could strengthen the financial position 23.
    • A global base oil shortage could sustain demand for North American specialty products 2.

    Threats

    • Lower crack spreads or higher utility costs could seriously weigh on profitability 1.
    • Changes to RFS rules or the loss of small refinery exemptions could raise compliance costs 1.
    • Operational incidents, accidents or supply chain disruptions could interrupt production 1.

    Risks

    • Margin volatilityhigh

      Product margins depend on crude and feedstock prices, and hedging instruments may not be effective 1.

    • RFS obligations and RINshigh

      Changes to RFS obligations or to the availability of small refinery exemptions could raise compliance costs 13.

    • Indebtedness and debt servicemedium

      A reduction in the borrowing base or inventory values could limit access to financing and the ability to service debt 1.

    • Dependence on third-party pipelinesmedium

      Disruption of third-party pipelines could reduce sales and available cash flow 1.

    • Operating hazardsmedium

      Accidents, fires or unplanned shutdowns could cause major losses, and insurance may not cover all costs 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If margins for specialty products and fuels remain high, quarterly results could keep improving, as seen in the second quarter of 2026 3.
    • If RFS obligations for 2026 and 2027 support demand for renewable fuels, Montana Renewables could hold a competitive position in the region 2.
    • Accelerated debt reduction could ease financial pressure and open room for growth investment 23.

    What would break the thesis

    • If crack spreads return to lower historical levels, profitability could fall quickly and net losses could persist 1.
    • If regulatory changes erode the advantages of American producers, compliance costs could rise significantly 12.
    • If non-cash RINs losses recur, reported results could stay negative even when operations are solid 3.

    What to watch

    • Evolution of Specialty Products and Solutions margins and the Middle East conflictQ3 2026
    • Montana/Renewables results after the MaxSAF 150 expansionQ3 2026
    • Progress on debt reduction and the 2031 senior notesnext 10-K
    • Final effect of 2026 and 2027 RFS rules on compliance costs2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Calumet manufactures, formulates and markets a diversified slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels for consumer-facing and industrial customers. It is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana and operates twelve facilities throughout North America 12. Its reportable segments are Specialty Products and Solutions, Performance Brands and Montana/Renewables 12.

    The Specialty Products and Solutions segment makes solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels and esters, sold mainly as raw material components to domestic and international customers 12. Performance Brands sells high performance products under the Royal Purple, Bel-Ray and TruFuel brands 12.

    Montana/Renewables comprises two facilities in Great Falls, Montana: one producing renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and renewable naphtha, and one processing Canadian crude into specialty asphalt and fuels for local markets 2. The company completed its MaxSAF 150 expansion in the second quarter of 2026 23.

    Segments

    Specialty Products and Solutions

    The segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of 161.7 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 66.8 million USD in the same period a year earlier, reflecting a constructive market and strong production 3.

    Performance Brands

    The segment recorded record quarterly sales of TruFuel in the second quarter of 2026, but margins were compressed as price increases lagged feedstock cost increases 3.

    Montana/Renewables

    The segment reported Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes higher than in the prior year period in the second quarter of 2026, after a planned turnaround for the MaxSAF 150 expansion 23.

    Market context

    The Gulf Coast 2/1/1 crack spread averaged 24.04 USD per barrel in 2025, compared with 17.02 USD in 2024, indicating a more favorable refining margin environment 1. In 2026, conflict in the Middle East has tightened global refined product markets, and the company says its North American crude supply partly insulates it from these disruptions 2.

    For renewable fuels, the EPA set historically high volume requirements for 2026 and 2027, which could support margins across the biodiesel industry 2. Demand is also supported by federal policy on domestic fuel production and aviation decarbonization targets 12.

    Trends

    • Strong specialty product marginstailwind

      A global shortage of Group III base oils could keep demand shifting toward Group I and II products, and the company said margins could remain volatile but above historical averages near term 2.

    • RFS obligations and RINs costsmixed

      Higher RFS obligations and volatile RINs prices can materially change quarterly results, as the non-cash RINs expense in the second quarter of 2026 showed 13.

    • Debt reductiontailwind

      The company redeemed 2028 notes in July 2026 and terminated a terminal financing early, indicating an acceleration of deleveraging 23.

    • Feedstock and natural gas exposureheadwind

      Natural gas and utility costs made up a larger share of operating expenses, and falling crack spreads could weigh on profitability 1.

    Competitive position

    The supplied sources do not detail Calumet's direct competitors. The company points to its integrated asset base and first-mover position in renewable fuels in Montana as its advantages 12.

    • Crude oil suppliers and third-party pipeline operators

      The company depends on third-party pipelines for transport of feedstocks and products, creating exposure to competition for transport capacity 1.

    • Biodiesel and renewable fuel producers

      Idled biodiesel producers re-entering the market could compete with Montana Renewables for mandated demand 2.

    • Base oil and lubricant producers

      Competition comes from suppliers of Group I and II base oils, whose demand has risen amid the Group III shortage 2.

    • Integrated North American refiners

      Refiners processing North American crude compete for refined product margins in the region 2.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    • Current report15 Sept 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report01 Sept 2026
      Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
    • Current report07 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report03 Jun 2026
      Shareholder vote
    • Quarterly report08 May 2026
    • Current report08 May 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Proxy statement20 Apr 2026
    • Current report25 Mar 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report17 Mar 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Calumet, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Calumet, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Calumet, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.