olivLaw · US equity research
Maplebear Inc. CART
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
Maplebear Inc., trading as Instacart, is a leading technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry, connecting retailers, customers, brands and shoppers through its online marketplace, Enterprise platform and Instacart Ads. GTV grew 11% in fiscal 2025 and 14% in the second quarter of 2026, a signal of how demand for online grocery shopping is developing.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Maplebear Inc. (CART) stock was 59.22 USD (+1.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 13.7 bn USD, P/E 32.4 on diluted EPS of 1.83 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.66, 52-week range 32.93–60.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.0 bn USD (+14.1% YoY), net income of 111.0 m USD (−4.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.45 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 44.22 – 62.69
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.81 · band width 34.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 49.49 / 43.61
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.09 / 2.65
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +29.7% | −2.0% | +31.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +30.6% | −2.2% | +32.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +47.5% | +4.3% | +43.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.7% | +10.6% | +21.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +62.4% | +10.5% | +51.9 pp | −7.1% |
| 3 years | +120.1% | +73.7% | +46.4 pp | +1.0% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 852.0 m | 883.0 m | 897.0 m | 914.0 m | 939.0 m | 992.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 211.0 m | 219.0 m | 226.0 m | 236.0 m | 247.0 m | 275.0 m | 281.0 m | 292.0 m |
| Gross profit | 641.0 m | 664.0 m | 671.0 m | 678.0 m | 692.0 m | 717.0 m | 738.0 m | 751.0 m |
| Research & development | 149.0 m | 155.0 m | 144.0 m | 166.0 m | 169.0 m | 171.0 m | 164.0 m | 202.0 m |
| Operating income | 138.0 m | 155.0 m | 110.0 m | 124.0 m | 166.0 m | 97.0 m | 182.0 m | 143.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 15.0 m ≈ | 17.0 m | 19.0 m | 21.0 m ≈ | 25.0 m ≈ | 26.0 m | 30.0 m | 32.0 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 153.0 m | 166.0 m | 124.0 m | 142.0 m | 181.0 m | 109.0 m | — | — |
| Income tax | 35.0 m | 18.0 m | 18.0 m | 26.0 m | 37.0 m | 28.0 m | 44.0 m | 36.0 m |
| Net income | 118.0 m | 148.0 m | 106.0 m | 116.0 m | 144.0 m | 81.0 m | 144.0 m | 111.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.42 | 0.49 ≈ | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.30 ≈ | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| Operating cash flow | 185.0 m ≈ | 153.0 m | 298.0 m | 203.0 m ≈ | 287.0 m ≈ | 183.0 m | 268.0 m | 494.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 14.0 m ≈ | 12.0 m | 18.0 m | 16.0 m ≈ | 15.0 m ≈ | 12.0 m | 16.0 m | 13.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 357.0 m ≈ | 5.0 m | 89.0 m | 121.0 m ≈ | 62.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn | 359.0 m | 324.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 20.6, median 26.7, max 28.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +39.1% | +19.2% | +11.0% | +10.8% |
| Net income | -73.0 m | 428.0 m | -1.6 bn | 457.0 m | 447.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −479.0% | unavailable | −2.2% |
| Diluted EPS | -1.12 | 0.96 | -12.43 | 1.58 | 1.60 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −1,394.8% | unavailable | +1.3% |
| net % | -4.0% | 16.8% | -53.3% | 13.5% | 11.9% |
| Free cash flow | -217.0 m | 253.0 m | 532.0 m | 623.0 m | 910.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 637.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 2.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.40x
- ROE
- 15.9%
- ROA
- 11.5%
- FCF margin
- 24.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 608.0 m | 720.0 m | 764.0 m | 836.0 m | 984.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 368.0 m | 518.0 m | 2.3 bn | 604.0 m | 650.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -86.0 m | 62.0 m | -2.1 bn | 489.0 m | 498.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 16.0 m | 34.0 m | 43.0 m | 56.0 m | 91.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -70.0 m ≈ | 96.0 m ≈ | -2.1 bn ≈ | 545.0 m ≈ | 589.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -72.0 m | 71.0 m | -2.1 bn | 552.0 m | 556.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.0 m | -357.0 m | -439.0 m | 95.0 m | 109.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -73.0 m | 428.0 m | -1.6 bn | 457.0 m | 447.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.12 | 0.96 | -12.43 | 1.58 | 1.60 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 65.9 m | 101.5 m | 130.6 m | 289.2 m | 279.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 637.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 842.0 m | 853.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 2.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 38.0 m | 135.0 m | 200.0 m | 218.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 263.0 m | 317.0 m | 318.0 m | 317.0 m | 393.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 103.0 m | 77.0 m | 52.0 m | 71.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 3.7 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 88.0 m | 72.0 m | 80.0 m | 70.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 795.0 m | 733.0 m | 798.0 m | 917.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 911.0 m | 800.0 m | 836.0 m | 974.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -573.0 m † | -64.0 m † | 3.8 bn † | 3.1 bn † | 2.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -204.0 m | 277.0 m | 586.0 m | 687.0 m | 971.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 13.0 m | 24.0 m | 54.0 m | 64.0 m | 61.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -217.0 m ≈ | 253.0 m ≈ | 532.0 m ≈ | 623.0 m ≈ | 910.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -330.0 m | 117.0 m | 135.0 m | -107.0 m | -208.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 464.0 m | 46.0 m | -30.0 m | -1.4 bn | -1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 36.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 13.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 32.84 – 64.30 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E32.84 – 64.30 (Mid 41.73)20 companies used · median multiple 22.8x · quartiles 18.0x – 35.2xACN, BR, CASS, CBZ, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, FISV, GRAB, HQY, MA, MELI, MSCI, PAYS, PYPL, RBA, RSSS, UBER, WEX
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 12.0% | 62 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 245.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 18.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 32.4x | 50 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 13.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation72/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MAPLEBEAR INC. (CART). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.8%; net margin 12.0%; ROE 17.1%.
The estimated value range is 32.84–64.30 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 41.73 USD, the price of 59.22 USD leaves a potential of -29.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -41.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 245.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 18.6%
- Current ratio: 2.3x
- FCF yield: 8.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 13.6%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABAAlibaba Group Holding Ltd | 195.6 bn | 131.6 | 10.3% | 10.1% | +8.1% | −33% / +41% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc | 136.0 bn | 14.6 | 38.4% | 17.3% | +18.3% | −24% / +18% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 84.3 bn | 45.2 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −20% / +3% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 52.1 bn | 25.8 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +43% / +189% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 48.4 bn | 11.1 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −7% / +1% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 45.7 bn | 33.9 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +13% / +23% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 31.1 bn | 11.2 | 10.7% | 13.4% | +3.6% | −5% / −55% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 26.7 bn | 24.7 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +37% / +69% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.9 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +29% / −16% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 20.8 bn | 20.3 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −19% / −5% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 20.1 bn | 6.0 | 22.3% | 27.6% | +5.4% | −41% / −34% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.3 bn | 39.1 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −5% / +46% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.6 bn | 20.9 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −60% / −33% |
| CARTMaplebear Inc. | 13.7 bn | 32.4 | 17.1% | 12.0% | +10.8% | +62% / +120% |
| CSGPCoStar Group, Inc. | 13.1 bn | 74.3 | 2.2% | 4.9% | +18.7% | −53% / −61% |
| HQYHealthequity, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 39.4 | 11.4% | 17.4% | +9.5% | +3% / +62% |
| WEXWEX Inc. | 5.9 bn | 15.5 | 35.6% | 14.0% | +1.2% | +21% / +2% |
| ALITAlight, Inc. | 5.7 bn | — | -67.9% | -46.0% | −3.0% | −72% / −92% |
| XMTRXometry, Inc. | 5.2 bn | — | -3.9% | -2.0% | +25.9% | +94% / +364% |
| CBZCBIZ, Inc. | 3.0 bn | 25.8 | 6.8% | 4.6% | +52.1% | −0% / +6% |
| FLYWFlywire Corporation | 2.7 bn | 83.8 | 4.2% | 4.8% | +26.6% | +56% / −6% |
| AHGAkso Health Group | 2.2 bn | 133.0 | -9.8% | -135.0% | −6.4% | −11% / +56% |
| PAYSPaysign, Inc. | 863.9 m | 58.4 | 30.8% | 15.7% | +40.5% | +194% / +551% |
| PHRPhreesia, Inc. | 818.1 m | 77.1 | 3.1% | 2.1% | +14.5% | −36% / −14% |
| CASSCass Information Systems, Inc. | 704.7 m | 19.8 | 15.1% | 18.5% | +5.3% | +31% / +33% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CART from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 43.33 Total return -27% · Per year -27% | 76.29 Total return 29% · Per year 29% | 114.49 Total return 93% · Per year 93% |
| 3 years | 50.11 Total return -15% · Per year -5% | 98.49 Total return 66% · Per year 18% | 161.11 Total return 172% · Per year 40% |
| 5 years | 57.96 Total return -2% · Per year -0% | 127.15 Total return 115% · Per year 17% | 226.70 Total return 283% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 24.62
- Net margin± 17.24
- Annual revenue growth± 13.01
- Annual dilution± 1.45
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Maplebear Inc., trading as Instacart, is a leading technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry, connecting retailers, customers, brands and shoppers through its online marketplace, Enterprise platform and Instacart Ads. GTV grew 11% in fiscal 2025 and 14% in the second quarter of 2026, a signal of how demand for online grocery shopping is developing.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a large network of retailers and customers, a modular technology platform and a leading position in online grocery shopping, supported by GTV growth and advertising revenue 13.
- Its advertising model, based on proprietary transaction data, is differentiated and measurable, which attracts brands willing to invest in sales-linked campaigns 1.
- The company reported strong operating cash flow and continued share repurchases, which points to financial discipline under current conditions 3.
Weaknesses
- Growth has slowed compared with earlier periods, and the company acknowledges its history does not guarantee future performance 1.
- Gross margin has declined in recent periods because cost of revenue is rising faster than revenue, which could limit profitability 13.
- Dependence on retailers and on shoppers in its cost model could expose the company to contractual or regulatory changes 1.
Opportunities
- Expanding AI solutions, off-platform advertising and integrations with major platforms could open new revenue sources 3.
- Wider adoption of the Enterprise platform by traditional retailers could strengthen technology revenue over the long term 3.
- If online grocery adoption keeps growing, the company could benefit from a broader customer base and higher order frequency 1.
Threats
- Legislative changes on the status of shoppers could raise costs or constrain the operating model in several states 1.
- Competition from retailers with their own storefronts and from large platforms could reduce market share or pressure prices 1.
- Macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade tariffs and recession risk, could reduce orders and consumer spending 1.
Risks
- Shopper classificationhigh
The classification of shoppers as independent contractors is contested in several jurisdictions, and regulatory changes could raise costs and compliance obligations 1.
- Intense competitionhigh
The company operates in highly competitive markets with well-capitalized, better-known competitors, some of them partners, which could affect growth 1.
- Dependence on retailersmedium
Losing major retail partners or reducing their engagement could negatively affect transaction volume 1.
- Advertising growthmedium
If Instacart Ads revenue does not grow as expected, margins and profitability could be negatively affected 1.
- Quarterly volatilitylow
Seasonality and macro factors can cause significant fluctuations in quarterly results, making performance hard to anticipate 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The acceleration of GTV growth over recent quarters, with growth outpacing orders, suggests that average order value and advertising contribute more to results 3.
- Advertising revenue grows faster than GTV, which could support margins if the trend continues 3.
- The Enterprise platform and AI solutions could open new revenue sources from retailers and technology partners 3.
What would break the thesis
- Gross margin has declined because cost of revenue grows faster than revenue, which could limit the ability to sustain profitability 13.
- Legislative changes on shopper status could raise operating costs significantly in several states 1.
- Competition from retailers with their own storefronts and from large platforms could pressure long-term growth 1.
What to watch
- GTV and Adjusted EBITDA results against the third-quarter guidanceQ3 2026
- Growth rate of advertising revenue relative to GTVQ3 2026
- Legislative changes on shopper status in the states where the company operates2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Instacart describes itself as the leading technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry, helping consumers save time, retailers run their businesses online and in-store, and brands connect with customers. According to the 2025 annual report, the company has powered more than 1.6 billion orders since its founding and enabled more than 2,200 retail banners as of December 31, 2025. It operates three main pillars: Instacart Marketplace, Instacart Enterprise platform and Instacart Ads 1.
The company also offers Instacart+, a membership program with unlimited zero-dollar delivery on orders above a certain size, and an AI offering for retailers under AI Solutions, with an AI assistant currently in pilot 3. The company says it could accelerate growth if adoption of its enterprise services and advertising continues to expand.
Segments
Instacart Marketplace
The Marketplace lets customers shop from their favourite retailers through the Instacart app or website, with delivery and pickup options. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported GTV of 10,351 million USD, up 14% year over year, supported by more orders and a higher average order value 23.
Instacart Enterprise platform
The Enterprise platform gives retailers a modular technology solution covering e-commerce, fulfillment, Connected Stores, ads and insights. The company has announced expanded partnerships including Storefront Pro, in-store technologies and AI solutions for retailers, which could strengthen long-term revenue if adoption continues 3.
Instacart Ads
Instacart Ads gives brands advertising that uses first-party transaction data to measure sales impact. Advertising and other revenue grew 16% in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing GTV growth, which shows the segment's potential 3. The company is also extending its ads to off-platform and in-store channels 1.
Market context
Seasonality affects quarterly results: order volume typically declines in the second and third quarters, while advertising revenue is usually high in the fourth quarter and low in the first 1. To assess longer-term trends, investors could watch whether GTV growth continues to outpace order growth.
Trends
- Adoption of online grocery shoppingmixed
The company says its growth rate has decreased from earlier periods, and broad market acceptance of online grocery shopping remains an important condition for the business 1. If consumer habits stabilise, growth could slow further.
- In-purchase advertisingtailwind
Advertising revenue grew faster than GTV in the second quarter of 2026, suggesting brands are investing more in measurable, sales-linked advertising 3. This trend could support margins over the longer term.
- Regulation of shopper statusheadwind
The law on the independent contractor status of shoppers varies by jurisdiction and could raise operating costs, as with Proposition 22 in California 1. Legislative changes could affect the company's cost structure.
- AI integration in retailmixed
The company has expanded its AI solutions for retailers and became Google's first grocery partner to integrate with Gemini, which could open new ordering channels 3. The results of these initiatives are not yet fully visible in the financial figures.
- Macroeconomic pressureheadwind
Inflation, trade tariffs and uncertainty about a possible recession could affect consumer behaviour and order volume, according to warnings in the annual report 1. Macro conditions could slow growth if demand contracts.
Competitive position
The company says it competes for retailers on the quality of its technology, flexibility, range of fulfillment options and pricing, and for customers on experience, selection, affordability and convenience 1. The competitive set includes companies that could also become partners, which complicates positioning.
For brands, competition rests on the breadth of offerings, technology capabilities, data analytics and reach to consumers, and for shoppers on flexibility and earnings potential 1. The company warns that mergers or other strategic transactions by competitors could weaken its position.
- Retailers operating their own online storefronts
Retailers that run their own online stores compete for customers and may build their own delivery solutions, although some of them are also partners of the company 1.
- Restaurant and food delivery platforms
These platforms compete for order frequency and consumer attention, while the company itself offers restaurant delivery through partnerships on its platform 1.
- Digital advertising providers
Advertising platforms compete with Instacart Ads for brand budgets, particularly in measurable point-of-purchase advertising 13.
- Technology providers for retailers
Companies offering e-commerce and analytics solutions to retailers compete with the company's Enterprise platform 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Marvell cumpără Lumentum într-o tranzacție de 115 mld.$ — de ce scad acțiunile MRVL și LITE? - InvezzSurge — Google News · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- The agentic web is hereMIT Technology Review · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Are airlines actually using your personal data to set 'personalized' prices?The Points Guy · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Everybody’s Business: Even Your Chicken Is Candy-Flavored NowBloomberg Markets · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- DoorDash cumpără Instacart cu 17 miliarde de dolari și anticipează o lungă analiză antitrust - Martin Cid MagazineSurge — Google News · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- DoorDash a semnat preluarea Instacart pentru circa 17 miliarde de dolari - Forbes RomaniaSurge — Google News · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Mega-achiziție de 17 miliarde dolari: Proprietarul Wolt cumpără o aplicație americană de livrăriStartupCafe.ro · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- DoorDash to Buy Rival Instacart in $17 Billion DealBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- DoorDash va cumpăra Instacart pentru $17B, extinzând livrarea alimentelor - InvezzSurge — Google News · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- DoorDash is acquiring Instacart for $17BHacker News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- DoorDash ar urma să achiziționeze Instacart pentru 17 miliarde de dolari: livrările de restaurante și alimente, reunite - Saptamana FinanciaraSurge — Google News · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- DoorDash buying Instacart for $17BThe Hill · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- SUA investighează o serie de corporații importante pentru practici legate de stabilirea prețurilor pe baza datelor cu caracter personal. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- DoorDash to buy Instacart for $17bn in major grocery delivery consolidationThe Guardian World · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- DoorDash and Instacart want to join forces. Will the U.S. government get in their way?MarketWatch — Top Stories · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- DoorDash to Acquire InstacartHacker News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- DoorDash is acquiring Instacart for around $17 billionThe Verge · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- FTC orders Delta, Uber and others to hand over data on algorithmic pricingThe Guardian World · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- DoorDash's deal to buy Instacart coming as early as Thursday morning, sources tell CNBCCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- FTC demands Walmart, Uber, Delta and others hand over data on personalized pricing: ReutersCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report29 Oct 2026Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Oct 2026Exit or disposal costs
- Current report25 Sept 2026Item 3.02 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement09 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Maplebear Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Maplebear Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Maplebear Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.