olivLaw · US equity research
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. FDXF
Air Courier Services · SIC 4513 · Vertical: Air transportation (SIC 451x)
FedEx Freight is the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier and became an independent company trading on the NYSE under the symbol FDXF after its spin-off from FedEx on June 1, 2026. Revenue for calendar 2025 fell to 8778 million USD from 9092 million USD in 2024, amid softer industrial demand and trade uncertainty.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) stock was 131.85 USD (+4.61% on the day), with market capitalisation 19.7 bn USD, P/E 30.1 on diluted EPS of 4.38 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.24%, 52-week range 107.95–188.46 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 100.96 – 124.54
- above the upper band · %B 1.31 · band width 20.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 118.72 / unavailable
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.25 / -2.34
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +16.8% | −2.3% | +19.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.2% | −0.8% | −4.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | unavailable | +4.7% | unavailable | — |
| Year to date | unavailable | +10.2% | unavailable | — |
| 1 year | unavailable | +10.3% | unavailable | +0.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +73.0% | unavailable | +62.0% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.8% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 36.6, median 36.6, max 36.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −5.6% | −1.1% |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 655.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −14.5% | −51.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 10.53 | 9.00 | 4.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −14.5% | −51.3% |
| net % | 16.7% | 15.1% | 7.4% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | -212.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 May 2026
- Cash
- unavailable USD
- Financial debt
- 4.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- -497.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 6.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.52x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 11.0%
- FCF margin
- -2.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | 540.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 455.0 m | 471.0 m | 512.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.2 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 0 | 0 | 57.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 884.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 505.0 m | 456.0 m | 229.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 655.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 10.53 | 9.00 | 4.38 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 149.5 m | 149.5 m | 149.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current assets | — | 284.0 m | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 602.0 m | 602.0 m | 602.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 5.0 bn | 6.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 150.0 m | 106.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 7.0 m | 43.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 773.0 m | 993.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn † | 2.4 bn † | -497.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 167.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 461.0 m | 437.0 m | 379.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | -212.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -403.0 m | -385.0 m | -363.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.1 bn | -1.1 bn | 335.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 48.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 19.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 36.95 – 75.14 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E36.95 – 75.14 (Mid 43.77)9 companies used · median multiple 10.0x · quartiles 8.4x – 17.2xAIRT, CPA, DAL, FDX, LUV, RJET, RYAAY, SKYW, UAL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.4% | 73 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -32.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 69 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 30.1x | 27 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -1.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.2% | 3 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial3/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -1.1%; net margin 7.4%; ROE 88.0%.
The estimated value range is 36.95–75.14 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.77 USD, the price of 131.85 USD leaves a potential of -66.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -201.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 7.4%
- Interest coverage: 9.5x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -32.4%
- P/E (TTM): 30.1x
- FCF yield: -1.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Air transportation (SIC 451x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A. | 25,661.7 bn | 18,042.0 | 141.1% | 10.2% | +11.2% | −7% / unavailable |
| FDXFedEx Corporation | 74.5 bn | 17.2 | 14.2% | 4.7% | +7.7% | +43% / +53% |
| RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc | 57.7 bn | 38.0 | — | — | +3.8% | −19% / +17% |
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | 54.9 bn | 16.7 | 15.9% | 4.6% | +2.8% | +30% / +126% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | 35.5 bn | 10.0 | 22.3% | 5.5% | +3.5% | +7% / +177% |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines Co | 21.5 bn | 21.7 | 13.9% | 3.3% | +2.1% | +26% / +72% |
| FDXFFedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | 19.7 bn | 30.1 | 88.0% | 7.4% | −1.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. | 8.7 bn | — | — | -0.6% | +0.8% | −7% / +5% |
| CPACopa Holdings, S.A. | 5.6 bn | 8.4 | 26.1% | 18.6% | +5.0% | +13% / +48% |
| ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc. | 4.3 bn | — | -4.6% | -1.2% | +21.3% | −11% / +1% |
| SKYWSkywest Inc | 3.1 bn | 7.9 | 15.1% | 9.7% | +15.0% | −20% / +73% |
| ALGTAllegiant Travel Co | 2.1 bn | 53.3 | 1.8% | 0.9% | +3.7% | +1% / +12% |
| ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -175.4% | -8.9% | −1.4% | +63% / +90% |
| JBLUJetblue Airways Corp | 1.2 bn | — | -55.4% | -10.0% | −2.3% | −31% / −28% |
| RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. | 918.2 m | 9.2 | 7.5% | 4.6% | +13.7% | −2% / +82% |
| AIRTAir T, Inc. | 74.7 m | 1.2 | 210.7% | 17.2% | +12.1% | +40% / +72% |
| FJETStarfighters Space, Inc. | 45.2 m | — | -94.2% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AZULAzul SA | — | — | — | 0.6% | +10.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FDXF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 73.57 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 130.43 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 196.97 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 63.60 Total return -52% · Per year -22% | 127.60 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 212.67 Total return 61% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 54.98 Total return -58% · Per year -16% | 124.83 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 229.63 Total return 74% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 31.90
- Net margin± 22.33
- Annual revenue growth± 19.37
- Annual dilution± 1.88
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
FedEx Freight is the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier and became an independent company trading on the NYSE under the symbol FDXF after its spin-off from FedEx on June 1, 2026. Revenue for calendar 2025 fell to 8778 million USD from 9092 million USD in 2024, amid softer industrial demand and trade uncertainty.
SWOT
Strengths
- The network is the largest in the LTL category, with national coverage and close proximity to customers. This enables efficient cross-docking and consistent service during peak periods.
- The dual offer of Priority and Economy covers both urgent and price-sensitive shipments.
- The LTL Select digital platform and analytics tools support closer customer relationships.
Weaknesses
- Revenue and operating income fell in 2025 versus the prior year, while separation-related expenses rose.
- The company still depends on certain FedEx services and brands during the transition period.
- Insurance and claims costs are partly self-insured, which can increase exposure to losses.
Opportunities
- Small business, healthcare, grocery and data center segments could add growth.
- Investment in technology and AI could reduce costs and improve operating efficiency.
- Building out standalone capabilities could lift margins if demand recovers.
Threats
- Economic slowdown and tariffs could reduce volumes and revenue per shipment.
- Fuel price swings and limits on recovering costs through surcharges could pressure margins.
- Competition from large rivals and digital freight platforms could limit pricing power.
Risks
- Demand under pressurehigh
A prolonged slowdown in industrial activity and trade could reduce LTL shipment volumes for an extended period.
- Trade policyhigh
Changes to tariffs and USMCA could alter freight flows and operating costs.
- Fuel pricesmedium
Higher fuel prices or supply disruptions could raise costs if surcharges cannot be maintained.
- Insurance and claims costsmedium
Higher claim severity or reserve increases in self-insurance could weigh on profitability.
- Dependence on FedEx during transitionmedium
If FedEx services and brands cannot be replaced on time and at reasonable cost, operations could be affected.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If LTL demand recovers, network scale and market position could drive a fast rebound in revenue and profitability.
- The digital platform and new segments could deepen long-term customer relationships.
- Once separation costs roll off, margins could improve after the transition is complete.
What would break the thesis
- If the industrial economy stays weak, volumes and revenue per shipment could keep falling.
- Separation and standalone costs could stay elevated longer than expected.
- Tariffs and USMCA uncertainty could reduce cross-border trade and transport demand.
What to watch
- Trend in revenue and revenue per shipmentQ1 2027
- Separation and standalone cost levels2027
- Progress of USMCA negotiations and tariff policy2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
FedEx Freight, headquartered in Memphis, provides LTL services across the United States, Canada and Mexico over a network of more than 26000 service center doors. Its portfolio has two complementary offerings: Priority, a premium service with published transit times, and Economy, a lower-cost option for shipments with flexible timing. The company reports one segment and has about 108000 active customers.
Strategy rests on network scale, the dual service offer and the LTL Select digital platform, which supports online quotes, bookings and tracking. The company also invests in Custom Critical, Volume Services and FedEx Freight Direct for segments such as small businesses, healthcare and retail.
The spin-off brought standalone costs and agreements with FedEx on transitional services, trademarks and intellectual property. Whether these services are replaced efficiently with internal or third-party capabilities is a point to monitor in the coming period.
Market context
FedEx Freight operates in the North American LTL market, which the filing describes as having about ten scaled players. LTL pricing is described as more favorable than in the more fragmented truckload market.
Demand depends on industry, trade and consumer spending. Revenue fell in 2025 compared with 2024, and management expects pressure on LTL demand to continue for the rest of calendar 2026.
Trends
- Softer industrial economyheadwind
Lower US imports of consumer goods and slower industrial output have reduced shipment volumes. If the slowdown persists, revenue per shipment and volumes could remain under pressure.
- Trade policy and tariffsmixed
Tariffs and USMCA negotiations could shift North American freight flows. The impact depends on future decisions and is hard to predict.
- Inflation and elevated interest ratesheadwind
Inflation and high rates are weighing on consumer and business spending, reducing transport demand. Management expects the effect to continue through 2026.
- Digitalization of freighttailwind
Digital platforms and AI tools could lower operating costs and deepen customer relationships. Wider adoption could support margins over the long term.
Competitive position
Competition comes from local, regional and national LTL carriers, as well as truckload carriers, small package carriers, private fleets and digital freight platforms. Some rivals have larger customer bases or greater resources.
FedEx Freight's advantages are network scale, coverage and integrated services. The company believes continued investment in technology and capacity could sustain its position if pricing discipline holds in the market.
- Old Dominion Freight LineODFL
US-listed LTL carrier focused on service quality and its own network, cited in industry competition sources.
- XPO LogisticsXPO
North American LTL and logistics company, a direct competitor in the less-than-truckload segment.
- Saia
Regional and national US LTL carrier operating on similar freight lanes.
- Small package and express couriers
Parcel and express delivery providers competing for smaller or urgent shipments.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- FedEx Freight delivers a much-needed quarterly beat. Where we stand on shares nowCNBC World · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- FedEx Freight CTO absorbs commercial role amid shakeupYahoo Finance — News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- FedEx Freight expands CTO’s role to cover commercial strategy following CCO ousterYahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Waits for Oil to Fall Before Adding to FedEx Freight (FDXF)Yahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- What the Numbers Tell About FedEx Freight (FDXF) Following Spin-OffYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- FedEx Freight fires chief commercial officer following internal probeYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on FedEx Freight Stock?Yahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- FedEx Freight Shares Drop in First Day of Trading After SpinoffBloomberg Markets · 01 Jun 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Oct 2026Item 5.08 · Other events
- Current report02 Sept 2026Other events
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report05 Aug 2026
- Current report26 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report25 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.03 · Item 5.01 · Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Item 5.05 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-05-31 · SEC / FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.