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olivLaw · US equity research

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. HGV

Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places · SIC 7000 · Vertical: Hotels and lodging (SIC 70xx)

43.76USD+4.79% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Hilton Grand Vacations is a global timeshare company that develops, sells and manages resorts under Hilton Grand Vacations brands, with more than 720,000 Club members. Current interest stems from the integration of the Diamond and Bluegreen acquisitions, sales dynamics and 2026 guidance placing Adjusted EBITDA between $1.225 billion and $1.265 billion.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) stock was 43.76 USD (+4.79% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 8.4 on diluted EPS of 5.20 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.28, 52-week range 34.05–54.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.0 bn USD (+50.8% YoY), net income of 291.0 m USD (+1,064.0% YoY), diluted EPS 3.70 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.3 bn USD
shares as of 22 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.4
Diluted EPS TTM 5.20 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
11.87%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.28
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
34.0554.69

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
77.8
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
31.61 – 41.69
above the upper band · %B 1.20 · band width 27.5%
SMA 50 / 200
37.57 / 44.53
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.03 / 0.02
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+28.5%−1.1%+29.6 pp—
3 months−7.1%−0.5%−6.6 pp—
6 months−10.0%+4.4%−14.4 pp—
Year to date−2.2%+12.3%−14.5 pp—
1 year+7.8%+13.5%−5.7 pp+10.0%
3 years+17.5%+76.4%−58.9 pp+9.2%
5 years−20.0%+63.7%−83.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−37.7%
26 Jun 2026 → 05 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−42.2%
18 Nov 2021 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−4.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
2.0 bn USD
+50.8% YoY
Net income
291.0 m USD
+1,064.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.70
+1,221.4% YoY
net / operating
14.8% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.3 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn2.0 bn
Depreciation & amortisation70.0 m67.0 m59.0 m67.0 m80.0 m71.0 m71.0 m70.0 m
Interest expense79.0 m77.0 m79.0 m79.0 m76.0 m73.0 m70.0 m78.0 m
Pre-tax income49.0 m-6.0 m43.0 m45.0 m93.0 m74.0 m23.0 m414.0 m
Income tax23.0 m6.0 m15.0 m15.0 m40.0 m6.0 m8.0 m117.0 m
Net income20.0 m-17.0 m25.0 m25.0 m48.0 m66.0 m12.0 m291.0 m
Diluted EPS0.20 ≈-0.170.250.280.56 ≈0.790.153.70
Operating cash flow105.0 m38.0 m61.0 m ≈34.0 m ≈167.0 m128.0 m134.0 m ≈87.0 m ≈
Capex15.0 m14.0 m15.0 m ≈21.0 m ≈20.0 m6.0 m3.0 m ≈14.0 m ≈
Share repurchases125.0 m150.0 m150.0 m ≈150.0 m ≈150.0 m150.0 m150.0 m ≈110.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 6 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 6.7, median 14.3, max 112.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.0 bn1.8 bn894.0 m2.3 bn3.8 bn4.0 bn5.0 bn5.0 bn
Revenue YoY+16.8%−8.1%−51.4%+161.2%+64.2%+3.7%+25.2%+1.3%
Net income298.1 m215.7 m-201.0 m176.0 m352.0 m313.0 m47.0 m81.0 m
Net income YoY−8.8%−27.6%−193.2%unavailable+100.0%−11.1%−85.0%+72.3%
Diluted EPS3.052.42-2.361.752.932.800.450.89
Diluted EPS YoY−7.0%−20.7%−197.5%unavailable+67.4%−4.4%−83.9%+97.8%
net %14.9%11.7%-22.5%7.5%9.2%7.9%0.9%1.6%
Free cash flow-208.0 m106.0 m71.0 m150.0 m689.0 m281.0 m267.0 m230.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
239.0 m USD
Financial debt
4.5 bn USD
Net debt
4.3 bn USD
Equity
1.4 bn USD
Total assets
11.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
3.16x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
4.9%
ROA
0.7%
FCF margin
4.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.0 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
213.0 m
2024
268.0 m
2025
273.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
178.0 m
2024
329.0 m
2025
311.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
449.0 m
2024
136.0 m
2025
175.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
136.0 m
2024
76.0 m
2025
76.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
313.0 m
2024
47.0 m
2025
81.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.80
2024
0.45
2025
0.89

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
111.6 m
2024
103.1 m
2025
91.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
589.0 m
2024
328.0 m
2025
239.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
507.0 m
2024
315.0 m
2025
270.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
758.0 m
2024
792.0 m
2025
859.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.4 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
8.7 bn
2024
11.4 bn
2025
11.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
3.0 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
6.6 bn
2024
9.5 bn
2025
10.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.1 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
312.0 m
2024
309.0 m
2025
300.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
31.0 m
2024
42.0 m
2025
70.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
281.0 m ≈
2024
267.0 m ≈
2025
230.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-158.0 m
2024
-1.6 bn
2025
-146.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
183.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
-338.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
368.0 m
2024
432.0 m
2025
600.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
41.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
72.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-38.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
97.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-32.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-13.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
8.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
31.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
3.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
516.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
43.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
473.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
113.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
22 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
8.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
7.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
14.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
16.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

43.76 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
31.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

23/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 22 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 1335derived 90

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
122.28
USD per share
Mid
187.69
USD per share
High
302.38
USD per share
Price: 43.76 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 328.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 76.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 97.87 – 400.65 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)146.69 – 400.65 (Mid 223.96)
    WACC 6.3% · starting FCFF 685.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 84%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -28.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E97.87 – 204.10 (Mid 151.42)
    15 companies used · median multiple 29.1x · quartiles 18.8x – 39.3x
    ATAT, BYD, CHH, HLT, IHG, LVS, MAR, MCRI, MGM, MLCO, RRR, SHO, TNL, WH, WYNN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Hotels and lodging (SIC 70xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality7.0%61 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Quality113.4%100 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth9.6%80 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-32.8%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.4x100 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation14.3%100 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns16.9%100 (on a fixed band)12%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.3%; net margin 7.0%; ROE 31.0%.

The estimated value range is 122.28–302.38 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 187.69 USD, the price of 43.76 USD leaves a potential of 328.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 76.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 113.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.6%
  • P/E (TTM): 8.4x
  • FCF yield: 14.3%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 16.9%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -32.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Hotels and lodging (SIC 70xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.4x
vertical median 30.2x
below median (−72.1%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.0x
P/S
0.6x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−69.0%)
P/B
2.5x
vertical median 2.5x
at median
ROE
31.0%
vertical median 5.6%
above median (+455.7%)
Net margin
7.0%
vertical median 5.5%
above median (+28.2%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 14.2%
Revenue YoY
1.3%
vertical median 4.1%
below median (−67.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.9x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
HTHTH World Group Ltd154.3 bn218.441.5%20.1%+10.5%+9% / +37%
MARMarriott International Inc109.4 bn42.4—9.7%+4.3%+39% / +110%
HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.83.8 bn50.8—13.4%+7.7%+32% / +125%
IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC29.0 bn36.2—14.6%+5.4%+31% / +124%
LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.25.5 bn16.7262.8%11.8%+15.2%−40% / −12%
ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited14.5 bn63.750.5%16.6%+41.0%−9% / +97%
WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited8.5 bn19.7—6.1%+0.1%−36% / −2%
MGMMGM Resorts International8.3 bn12.726.8%3.9%+1.7%−7% / −17%
CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.6.0 bn—-15.1%-4.5%+2.1%+26% / −34%
WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.5.9 bn29.838.2%14.0%+1.5%+10% / +4%
MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited5.7 bn30.6—3.6%+11.3%−48% / −33%
BYDBoyd Gaming Corp5.5 bn11.719.6%12.3%+4.1%−7% / +32%
CHHChoice Hotels International Inc5.4 bn26.7146.5%12.7%+0.8%+32% / +9%
TNLTravel & Leisure Co.4.7 bn20.7—5.7%+4.1%+13% / +118%
PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc.3.4 bn—-5.0%-6.4%−2.2%+57% / +14%
HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.3.3 bn8.431.0%7.0%+1.3%+8% / +17%
SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.2.4 bn54.72.8%5.3%+6.0%+39% / +32%
PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc.2.3 bn—-37.4%-12.7%+5.8%+18% / −29%
XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.2.0 bn628.90.3%0.3%+3.8%+57% / +79%
MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.2.0 bn17.920.4%20.4%+4.4%+17% / +80%
THTarget Hospitality Corp.1.1 bn—-9.8%-10.8%−17.0%+45% / +3%
BALYBally’s Corporation680.3 m———+0.1%−23% / unavailable
CVEOCiveo Corp360.4 m—-4.7%-1.1%−6.3%+56% / +60%
FLLFull House Resorts Inc29.1 m—-936.4%-12.1%+3.5%−70% / −84%
CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc.16.9 m——-9.6%−0.5%−61% / −86%

1- and 3-year price returns: for HGV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
28.78
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
50.77
Total return 16% · Per year 16%
76.30
Total return 74% · Per year 74%
3 years
30.86
Total return -29% · Per year -11%
60.96
Total return 39% · Per year 12%
100.19
Total return 129% · Per year 32%
5 years
33.09
Total return -24% · Per year -5%
73.21
Total return 67% · Per year 11%
131.55
Total return 201% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 15.24
  • Net margin± 10.67
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.35
  • Annual dilution± 0.90

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

In brief

Hilton Grand Vacations is a global timeshare company that develops, sells and manages resorts under Hilton Grand Vacations brands, with more than 720,000 Club members. Current interest stems from the integration of the Diamond and Bluegreen acquisitions, sales dynamics and 2026 guidance placing Adjusted EBITDA between $1.225 billion and $1.265 billion 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A loyal member base and sales to existing owners provide a predictable stream of fee and dues revenue.
  • The capital-efficient model, combining fee-for-service and just-in-time agreements, reduces the need to fund construction and inventory risk.
  • The affiliation with Hilton brands and the Hilton Honors loyalty program supports customer trust and package sales.

Weaknesses

  • Corporate and non-recourse debt is substantial, and its cost remains a pressure on profitability.
  • Revenue deferrals on projects under construction reduce the visibility of quarterly results.
  • Rising tour counts have not fully translated into higher value per guest, pointing to a sales-quality issue.

Opportunities

  • Rebranding of Diamond and Bluegreen properties to Hilton brands could raise their appeal and pricing.
  • Expanding HGV Max and partnerships with retail and hotel brands could attract new members.
  • Monetizing receivables through securitization or warehouse borrowing could unlock additional cash.

Threats

  • An economic slowdown or rising unemployment could reduce demand for timeshare vacations.
  • If the Hilton license relationship deteriorated, the company could lose important brand rights.
  • Higher interest rates or rising defaults could raise financing costs and weaken the loan portfolio.

Risks

  • Dependence on the Hilton licensehigh

    The company does not own the Hilton brands. A breach or termination of the license agreement could materially affect sales and competitive position 1.

  • Customer defaults and financinghigh

    The loan portfolio depends on borrower quality, and higher defaults could reduce interest income and securitization capacity 13.

  • Indebtedness and cost of fundingmedium

    Corporate and non-recourse debt is large, and changes in variable interest rates could increase financing expenses 13.

  • Construction-related deferralsmedium

    Projects under construction can defer revenue recognition, making quarterly results more volatile and harder to forecast 3.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Integrating Diamond and Bluegreen remains complex and could generate complaints or litigation from former owners 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • A large member base and sales to existing owners provide recurring revenue that could support growth if tour productivity and sales efficiency keep improving 13.
  • The capital-efficient model and debt management could improve returns on capital and cash generation, especially if segment margins expand 3.
  • Rebranding acquired properties under Hilton brands could raise product appeal and the value of existing inventory 12.

What would break the thesis

  • VPG fell 8.6% in the second quarter of 2026, which could signal pressure on sales value per guest if the trend persists 3.
  • High leverage and customer defaults could limit financial flexibility and affect results if economic conditions deteriorate 13.
  • Dependence on the Hilton license and on integrating acquisitions could create operational and reputational risks if execution slips 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery against 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and any changes to itQ3 2026
  • Trend in VPG and contract sales after the second quarterQ3 2026
  • Default rates and the quality of the loan portfolionext 10-K
  • Progress rebranding Bluegreen and Diamond properties2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

The business

The company operates as a global timeshare business focused on selling vacation ownership intervals (VOIs) and managing resorts and member clubs, mainly under Hilton Grand Vacations brands 1. It manages over 200 properties across the United States, Europe, Canada, the Caribbean, Mexico and Asia, with a significant share concentrated in Florida, Europe and Hawaii 12. Its model combines owned inventory sales, fee-for-service and just-in-time agreements with third-party developers, and consumer financing 1.

Club members can exchange points for stays at its own resorts, across the Hilton system of 25 brands, in experiential vacations and in external exchange networks, with HGV Max benefits adding to the offer 1. The Bluegreen Acquisition, completed in January 2024 for total consideration of $1.6 billion inclusive of net debt, expanded the portfolio and member base 1. After the second quarter the company reiterated its 2026 guidance, although reported results are affected by construction-related deferrals 3.

VOI sales remain the core activity, but the company increasingly earns recurring management fees and fees from existing owners, who accounted for 74% of contract sales in fiscal 2025 1. The capital-efficient model, covering 35% of the inventory supply, reduces the need to finance construction 1.

Segments

Real estate sales and financing

This segment earns revenue from sales of owned VOIs, fee-for-service commissions and interest on loans to buyers, at a weighted average interest rate of 14.7% on loans as of December 31, 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the segment generated revenue of $809 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.1% 3.

Resort operations and club management

The segment collects cost-plus management fees from owners' associations, annual Club dues and transaction fees from member exchanges, and revenue from renting unsold inventory 1. In the second quarter of 2026 it generated revenue of $430 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.8% 3.

Market context

Demand for timeshare is tied to vacation spending and to general economic conditions, and the company operates mainly in the United States, Europe and Asia 1. The sources do not provide quantified market-size data, so an assessment of market share remains limited to the information available 1. Pressures in the secondary market can influence prices of new inventory 1.

Demand remains sensitive to consumer discretionary spending and inflation, and interest rates and defaults shape the cost of financing for buyers 12. The historical default rate was 9.86% in fiscal 2025, down from 10.77% in fiscal 2024 1.

Trends

  • Integration of Diamond and Bluegreenmixed

    Rebranding of acquired properties is ongoing and could support sales if the Hilton brand attracts new members, but it requires investment and operational attention 12.

  • Sales traffic growth versus spending per guestmixed

    In the second quarter of 2026 tours rose 6.1%, yet VPG fell 8.6%, suggesting higher volume has not fully translated into more value per guest 3.

  • Refinancing and continued buybackstailwind

    The company refinanced its Term Loan B into a 2033 maturity and continued share repurchases, which could support financial flexibility if cash generation holds 3.

Competitive position

The company competes with other timeshare developers and operators, vacation rental firms, hotels and home-sharing services, based on location, quality, price and financing terms 1. Competition also comes from the secondary market, where owners can resell existing intervals and reduce demand for new sales 1.

It also competes for property acquisitions and partnerships, and its relationships with third-party developers matter for the fee-for-service model 1. Dependence on marketing partners such as Bass Pro and Choice Hotels is a distinctive feature but also a specific exposure 1.

  • Marriott Vacations WorldwideVAC

    Timeshare operator tied to a major hotel chain, cited in the source as a type of competitor in the hotel-brand timeshare segment; no specific figures from the analysed sources.

  • Travel + Leisure Co.TNL

    Timeshare and vacation exchange company referenced as part of the competitor category; the sources give no quantitative detail about it.

  • Independent timeshare developers and operators

    Numerous smaller owners compete for VOI sales, management agreements and off-site sales center locations.

  • Vacation rental and home-sharing platforms

    Home-sharing services compete with the company's vacation products through short-term rentals.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Current report30 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
  • Current report29 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
  • Current report30 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report17 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report02 Jul 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report04 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report22 May 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.