olivLaw · US equity research
LEAD REAL ESTATE CO., LTD LRE
Operative Builders · SIC 1531 · Vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)
LRE develops luxury single-family homes and condominiums in Tokyo, Kanagawa prefecture and Sapporo, and adds hotels and apartment leasing. Real estate sales make up nearly all revenue, and the company raised its operating margin in fiscal 2025 while relying heavily on short-term borrowings.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, LEAD REAL ESTATE CO., LTD (LRE) stock was 1.12 USD (−2.61% on the day), with beta 0.22, 52-week range 1.05–1.82 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.05 – 1.16
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.62 · band width 9.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.15 / 1.28
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.4% | −1.1% | +2.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.3% | −0.5% | −11.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.4% | +4.4% | −17.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −29.0% | +12.3% | −41.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −26.2% | +13.5% | −39.7 pp | −9.2% |
| 3 years | −79.7% | +76.4% | −156.1 pp | +22.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.3 bn | 14.7 bn | 17.4 bn | 19.0 bn | 18.8 bn | 18.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +30.5% | +18.6% | +8.8% | −0.6% | −3.5% |
| Net income | 279.5 m | 551.6 m | 611.9 m | 627.0 m | 846.8 m | 642.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +97.4% | +10.9% | +2.5% | +35.1% | −24.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 22.30 | 44.15 | 48.96 | 46.93 | 62.07 | 47.08 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +98.0% | +10.9% | −4.1% | +32.3% | −24.2% |
| net % | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Free cash flow | -414.9 m | -2.8 bn | -2.2 bn | -649.6 m | 791.3 m | -5.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 2.5 bn JPY
- Financial debt
- unavailable JPY
- Net debt
- unavailable JPY
- Equity
- 5.5 bn JPY
- Total assets
- 27.3 bn JPY
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.46x
- ROE
- 12.2%
- ROA
- 2.7%
- FCF margin
- -29.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (JPY)
Margins
Income statement · JPY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.3 bn | 14.7 bn | 17.4 bn | 19.0 bn | 18.8 bn | 18.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Operating income | 453.6 m | 887.1 m | 939.3 m | 898.6 m | 1.5 bn | 926.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 37.3 m | 43.4 m | 82.9 m | 102.7 m | 110.4 m | 121.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 491.0 m ≈ | 930.5 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 56.7 m | 23.3 m | 16.7 m | 18.3 m | 44.5 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Oct 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 387.2 m | 838.2 m | 928.8 m | 954.0 m | 1.4 bn | 979.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Income tax | 134.9 m | 286.9 m | 317.4 m | 327.9 m | 548.3 m | 337.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Net income | 279.5 m | 551.6 m | 611.9 m | 627.0 m | 846.8 m | 642.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 22.30 | 44.15 | 48.96 | 46.93 | 62.07 | 47.08 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 12.5 m | 12.5 m | 12.5 m | 13.4 m | 13.6 m | 13.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | 2.00 | 3.00 | 10.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · JPY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 480.3 m | 403.1 m | 786.4 m | 1.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 261.1 m | 6.6 m | 22.9 m | 38.5 m | 44.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 9.8 bn | 11.9 bn | 11.3 bn | 13.4 bn | 20.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 2.0 bn | 3.2 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Nov 2023verified |
| Total assets | — | 12.4 bn | 15.7 bn | 17.2 bn | 20.5 bn | 27.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 602.4 m | 732.7 m | 602.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 7.6 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.0 bn | 9.9 bn | 13.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 10.2 bn | 13.0 bn | 13.0 bn | 15.4 bn | 21.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 13.6 m | 13.6 m | 13.6 m | 13.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
Cash flow · JPY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -244.7 m | -2.6 bn | -919.6 m | 1.6 bn | 3.3 bn | -4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Capex | 170.2 m | 204.0 m | 1.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 872.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -414.9 m ≈ | -2.8 bn ≈ | -2.2 bn ≈ | -649.6 m ≈ | 791.3 m ≈ | -5.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -160.4 m | -216.1 m | -1.3 bn | -2.2 bn | -2.6 bn | -916.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 555.6 m | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 695.8 m | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | — | 25.0 m | 40.9 m | 136.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
40% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.5% | 40 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -826.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.4% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 20.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 55 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet82/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth6/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LEAD REAL ESTATE CO., LTD (LRE). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.2 bn JPY in 2026; YoY growth -3.5%; net margin 3.5%; ROE 12.2%.
The estimated value range is 628.42–755.28 JPY per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 20.8x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -826.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -1.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Operative Builders (SIC 1531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | 43.9 bn | 14.9 | 12.8% | 9.2% | −6.9% | −1% / +23% |
| PHMPultegroup, Inc. | 25.0 bn | 14.5 | 13.9% | 11.2% | −3.5% | +7% / +54% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 17.6 | 28.3% | 11.2% | −1.9% | −15% / +4% |
| TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | 14.6 bn | 12.7 | 14.4% | 11.1% | +1.1% | +13% / +85% |
| MTHMeritage Homes Corporation | 4.7 bn | 16.5 | 5.8% | — | unavailable | +0% / +4% |
| ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc. | 4.1 bn | 16.0 | 39.5% | 6.0% | +31.5% | −13% / unavailable |
| MHOM/i Homes, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 13.1 | 8.7% | 6.6% | −1.9% | +0% / +31% |
| KBHKb Home | 3.2 bn | 14.9 | 5.9% | 4.4% | −10.0% | −17% / +2% |
| GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | 2.8 bn | 10.7 | 14.3% | 14.2% | −1.0% | −2% / +40% |
| CCSCentury Communities, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 15.2 | 4.2% | 2.9% | −6.4% | −12% / −21% |
| LGIHLgi Homes, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 16.0 | 3.4% | 4.2% | −22.6% | −6% / −59% |
| BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc | 893.2 m | — | -0.7% | -0.4% | +1.8% | +49% / +38% |
| HOVHovnanian Enterprises Inc | 79.6 m | 81.2 | 2.2% | 0.6% | −0.9% | −16% / +22% |
| LRELead Real Estate Co., Ltd | — | — | 12.2% | 3.5% | −3.5% | −26% / −80% |
| LGPSLogprostyle Inc. | — | — | 19.7% | 3.4% | +7.6% | −43% / unavailable |
| DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc. | — | 13.3 | 7.6% | 2.6% | −2.9% | −35% / −47% |
| SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp. | — | 18.0 | 6.0% | 0.5% | −0.4% | −50% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LRE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Oct 2025; since then the company filed 20-F (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (22 Jun 2026), 6-K (15 Jun 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026).
In brief
LRE develops luxury single-family homes and condominiums in Tokyo, Kanagawa prefecture and Sapporo, and adds hotels and apartment leasing. Real estate sales make up nearly all revenue, and the company raised its operating margin in fiscal 2025 while relying heavily on short-term borrowings 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a long history and a recognized brand in Tokyo, which eases access to land through agencies it has worked with for many years.
- The pre-sold model for single-family homes reduces pressure to hold unsold inventory.
- Management has long experience in Japanese real estate development and is respected for the quality of its projects.
Weaknesses
- The company relies heavily on short-term bank loans that must be renewed regularly, creating liquidity risk.
- Condominium revenue is lumpy because each project is large and deliveries are few in a year.
- The Glocaly platform has not yet generated revenue and depends on market adoption.
Opportunities
- Expansion across the Kanto region and diversification into hotels and leasing could bring steadier revenue.
- If the changes on electronic documents are applied, the Glocaly platform could become a transaction tool.
- Markets in Texas and Southeast Asia could offer land at more favorable prices if financing is secured.
Threats
- Rising material and labor costs could reduce margins, and the company cannot always pass them on to customers.
- If short-term loans cannot be renewed, the company could be forced to use more expensive financing.
- Available land in central Tokyo is limited, which could make acquisitions more expensive over time.
Risks
- Reliance on short-term borrowingshigh
Land acquisitions for single-family homes are funded largely by short-term bank loans. Failure to renew them could affect liquidity and operations.
- High indebtednesshigh
Total debt is significant relative to the size of the business. It could limit cash flow available for other investments.
- Dependence on third-party contractorsmedium
Construction is outsourced, and delays or defects by contractors could lead to extra costs and reputational damage.
- Volatility of condominium revenuemedium
Condominium revenue varies widely from year to year, making short-term results hard to predict.
- International expansion risklow
Expansion in the US and Southeast Asia could fail if financing is lacking or local regulations differ.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If fiscal 2025 margins hold, the company could show that its pre-sold model works well in luxury areas.
- Diversification into hotels and leasing could reduce dependence on lumpy condominium sales.
- Long relationships with real estate agencies could continue to secure land access in prime areas.
What would break the thesis
- Reliance on short-term borrowings could become a problem if financing conditions worsen.
- Sales revenue slipped in fiscal 2025, and rising costs could compress margins further.
- The Glocaly platform and international expansion are still unproven and could consume capital without quick results.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and construction costsnext 10-K
- Level of short-term debt and its renewal2026
- First revenue from the Glocaly platform2026
- Launch of new hotel brands and results of the Master Lease Business2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Oct 2025; since then the company filed 20-F (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (22 Jun 2026), 6-K (15 Jun 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026).
The business
LRE Real Estate is a developer of luxury residential properties covering land acquisition, design, construction and delivery to customers. The company focuses on single-family homes for wealthy family buyers and condominiums sold entirely to institutional investors 1. Total revenue in fiscal 2025 was 18842,663 million JPY, about 130,698 million USD 1.
The business model reduces risk because customers for single-family homes are identified before land is acquired and construction starts. The company works with real estate agencies to find land and buyers, and outsources construction to third-party firms under internal supervision 1.
Beyond sales, LRE operates hotels in Tokyo and leases apartment units in Japan and Dallas, Texas. The Glocaly platform, launched in October 2021, has not yet generated revenue but facilitates matching between sellers and buyers of condominiums 1.
Segments
Real estate sales
Sales of single-family homes and condominiums accounted for about 97.2% of revenue in fiscal 2025, and sales revenue fell slightly by 1.0% due to fewer single-family land deliveries 1.
Glocaly platform
Glocaly has not yet generated revenue but could become a multilingual transaction platform if the legal changes on electronic documents are applied successfully in the company's business 1.
Market context
The luxury residential market in Tokyo, Kanagawa and Sapporo is highly competitive with limited land available. The company depends on access to land through real estate agencies, and acquisition costs are a major component of cost of real estate sales 1.
Rising material and labor costs can directly pressure margins, as the company may not always pass increases to customers. Planned expansion in the Kanto region, Texas and the Philippines could open new markets if financing is available 1.
Trends
- Rising construction costsheadwind
Labor and material costs increased and contributed to the lower gross margin in fiscal 2024. If the pressure continues, margins could be affected again.
- Demand for hotelstailwind
New hotel openings and higher average daily rates supported other revenue and helped lift the gross margin in fiscal 2025.
- Cost of financingmixed
Interest rates rose and interest expense increased in fiscal 2025. Short-term debt must be renewed frequently, which could make financing more expensive.
- International and domestic expansionmixed
The company plans to expand its hotel business across Japan and abroad, including Texas and the Philippines. Success depends on available capital.
Competitive position
LRE competes with other luxury residential developers in Tokyo and nearby regions for land and customers. Its advantage comes from long-standing relationships with real estate agencies and brand recognition of Lead Real in these areas 1.
The analyzed sources do not identify competitors listed on US exchanges. Competition is described mainly as pressure on available land at reasonable costs in the company's target areas 1.
- Other luxury residential developers in Tokyo
Compete for the same land through real estate agencies and for the same wealthy customers, as the company describes.
- Local real estate agencies
Not direct competitors but the main channel to land, so also a source of pressure on acquisition costs.
- Developers in Dallas, Texas
Relevant to the planned US expansion, where the company already leases apartment units.
- Developers in the Philippines
Relevant to the planned expansion in Southeast Asia, where the company seeks land acquisitions.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Annual report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Jan 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2025
- Annual report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-06-30 · SEC / LEAD REAL ESTATE CO., LTD · 30 Oct 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.