olivLaw · US equity research
Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL
Operative Builders · SIC 1531 · Vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)
Toll Brothers is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, active in dozens of US markets with annual revenues above 10 billion dollars. The company is going through a period of softer demand and lower margins, yet it stays in focus through its push to grow community count and its exit from multifamily development, with revenues of 10.97 billion USD in fiscal 2025.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock was 158.49 USD (+6.20% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.6 bn USD, P/E 12.7 on diluted EPS of 12.46 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.64%, beta 0.99, 52-week range 124.14–166.12 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.7 bn USD (−9.7% YoY), net income of 280.1 m USD (−24.2% YoY), diluted EPS 2.97 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.7
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 124.27 – 154.43
- above the upper band · %B 1.13 · band width 21.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 138.21 / 144.21
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.04 / 1.78
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +17.1% | −1.1% | +18.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.3% | −0.5% | +2.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.9% | +4.4% | +7.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +17.2% | +12.3% | +4.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +18.6% | +13.5% | +5.0 pp | −12.9% |
| 3 years | +95.0% | +76.4% | +18.6 pp | +3.7% |
| 5 years | +155.5% | +63.7% | +91.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| SG&A | 269.7 m | 240.4 m | 255.8 m | 253.7 m | 283.8 m | 257.9 m | 258.3 m | 266.1 m |
| Operating income | 611.1 m | 219.1 m | 449.7 m | 487.7 m | 564.1 m | 219.1 m | 346.6 m | 359.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 25.8 m | 17.2 m | 20.8 m ≈ | 22.3 m ≈ | 21.8 m | 16.2 m | 17.3 m ≈ | 20.9 m ≈ |
| Income tax | 145.7 m | 43.7 m | 125.1 m | 129.9 m | 146.3 m | 62.6 m | 89.8 m | 94.6 m |
| Net income | 475.4 m | 177.7 m | 352.4 m | 369.6 m | 446.7 m | 210.9 m | 260.6 m | 280.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 4.63 | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.73 | 4.58 | 2.19 | 2.72 | 2.97 |
| Operating cash flow | 682.5 m | -420.8 m | 362.8 m ≈ | 370.3 m ≈ | 800.0 m | 7.3 m | 134.5 m ≈ | 250.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 18.2 m | 17.3 m | 15.6 m ≈ | 25.4 m ≈ | 27.8 m | 18.9 m | 24.5 m ≈ | 30.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 23.1 m | 24.4 m | 24.6 m ≈ | 24.3 m ≈ | 23.8 m | 25.0 m | 24.4 m ≈ | 24.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 203.5 m | 23.7 m | 181.2 m ≈ | 199.4 m ≈ | 246.7 m | 50.4 m | 179.6 m ≈ | 204.9 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 83 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 3.9, median 9.5, max 14.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +22.8% | +1.1% | −2.0% | +24.2% | +16.9% | −2.7% | +8.5% | +1.1% |
| Net income | 748.2 m | 590.0 m | 446.6 m | 833.6 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +39.7% | −21.1% | −24.3% | +86.7% | +54.3% | +6.7% | +14.5% | −14.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.85 | 4.03 | 3.40 | 6.63 | 10.90 | 12.36 | 15.01 | 13.49 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +53.0% | −16.9% | −15.6% | +95.0% | +64.4% | +13.4% | +21.4% | −10.1% |
| net % | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 12.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 350.7 m | 898.6 m | 1.2 bn | 915.1 m | 1.2 bn | 936.5 m | 1.0 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Oct 2025
- Cash
- 1.3 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 8.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 14.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 16.9%
- ROA
- 9.7%
- FCF margin
- 9.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.7 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025derived |
| SG&A | 867.4 m | 922.0 m | 977.8 m | 909.4 m | 982.3 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Operating income | 550.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 68.9 m | 76.3 m | 76.8 m | 76.5 m | 81.2 m | 82.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 619.1 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 2.4 m | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2022verified |
| Income tax | 140.3 m | 266.7 m | 417.2 m | 470.3 m | 514.4 m | 444.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Net income | 446.6 m | 833.6 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.40 | 6.63 | 10.90 | 12.36 | 15.01 | 13.49 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 131.2 m | 125.8 m | 118.0 m | 111.0 m | 104.7 m | 99.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.90 | 0.98 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 316.1 m | 310.5 m | 287.8 m | 324.0 m | 453.0 m | 273.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Total assets | 11.1 bn | 11.5 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.5 bn | 13.4 bn | 14.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Equity | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 986.8 m | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Capex | 109.6 m | 66.9 m | 71.7 m | 73.0 m | 73.6 m | 86.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 898.6 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 915.1 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 936.5 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -177.8 m | -4.2 m | -153.2 m | -150.6 m | -167.6 m | -310.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -753.3 m | -1.0 bn | -1.1 bn | -1.2 bn | -816.5 m | -833.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 56.6 m | 76.6 m | 88.9 m | 91.1 m | 93.4 m | 97.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 634.1 m | 378.3 m | 542.7 m | 561.6 m | 627.1 m | 651.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 14.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 183.44 – 202.91 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E183.44 – 202.91 (Mid 189.62)11 companies used · median multiple 15.2x · quartiles 14.7x – 16.3xCCS, DFH, DHI, ECG, KBH, LGIH, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, SDHC
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate12.88 – 17.32 (Mid 14.77)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.1% | 80 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 91.0% | 87 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.2% | 18 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.4% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.7x | 92 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.5% | 93 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.3% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 8.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth34/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns86/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.1%; net margin 11.1%; ROE 14.4%.
The estimated value range is 183.44–202.91 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 189.62 USD, the price of 158.49 USD leaves a potential of 19.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 16.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.1%
- FCF conversion: 91.0%
- P/E (TTM): 12.7x
- FCF yield: 7.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 8.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Operative Builders (SIC 1531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | 43.9 bn | 14.9 | 12.8% | 9.2% | −6.9% | −1% / +23% |
| PHMPultegroup, Inc. | 25.0 bn | 14.5 | 13.9% | 11.2% | −3.5% | +7% / +54% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 17.6 | 28.3% | 11.2% | −1.9% | −15% / +4% |
| TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | 14.6 bn | 12.7 | 14.4% | 11.1% | +1.1% | +19% / +95% |
| MTHMeritage Homes Corporation | 4.7 bn | 16.5 | 5.8% | — | unavailable | +0% / +4% |
| ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc. | 4.1 bn | 16.0 | 39.5% | 6.0% | +31.5% | −13% / unavailable |
| MHOM/i Homes, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 13.1 | 8.7% | 6.6% | −1.9% | +0% / +31% |
| KBHKb Home | 3.2 bn | 14.9 | 5.9% | 4.4% | −10.0% | −17% / +2% |
| GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | 2.8 bn | 10.7 | 14.3% | 14.2% | −1.0% | −2% / +40% |
| CCSCentury Communities, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 15.2 | 4.2% | 2.9% | −6.4% | −12% / −21% |
| LGIHLgi Homes, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 16.0 | 3.4% | 4.2% | −22.6% | −6% / −59% |
| BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc | 893.2 m | — | -0.7% | -0.4% | +1.8% | +49% / +38% |
| HOVHovnanian Enterprises Inc | 79.6 m | 81.2 | 2.2% | 0.6% | −0.9% | −16% / +22% |
| DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc. | — | 13.3 | 7.6% | 2.6% | −2.9% | −35% / −47% |
| SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp. | — | 18.0 | 6.0% | 0.5% | −0.4% | −50% / unavailable |
| LRELead Real Estate Co., Ltd | — | — | 12.2% | 3.5% | −3.5% | −14% / −84% |
| LGPSLogprostyle Inc. | — | — | 19.7% | 3.4% | +7.6% | −43% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TOL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 95.51 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 169.05 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 254.90 Total return 62% · Per year 62% |
| 3 years | 88.45 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 176.55 Total return 14% · Per year 4% | 292.90 Total return 87% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 81.91 Total return -46% · Per year -12% | 184.38 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 336.55 Total return 117% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 44.14
- Net margin± 30.90
- Annual revenue growth± 25.93
- Annual dilution± 2.60
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Toll Brothers is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, active in dozens of US markets with annual revenues above 10 billion dollars. The company is going through a period of softer demand and lower margins, yet it stays in focus through its push to grow community count and its exit from multifamily development, with revenues of 10.97 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The luxury brand and reputation are well recognized, and the affluent customer base holds up better under economic pressure 12.
- The balance sheet is solid, with strong liquidity and a moderate debt-to-capital ratio in the latest reports 3.
- Vertical integration through in-house land, mortgage and construction subsidiaries gives control over costs and quality 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Housing demand downturnhigh
A housing market slowdown could reduce sales, margins and inventory values, with possible impairments 1.
- Margin pressurehigh
Higher incentives and construction costs could keep compressing home sales gross margin in the near term 23.
- Geographic concentration in Californiamedium
A significant share of revenue and income comes from California, where regulatory and economic factors can weigh on results 1.
- Construction and land risksmedium
Delays in approvals or completion could raise costs and reduce returns on land investments 1.
- Execution of the multifamily exitlow
Selling rental assets and the operating platform could face delays or weaker terms than expected 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If mortgage rates stabilize, demand in the luxury segment could recover and the company could benefit from higher delivery volume 2.
- The structural housing shortage and a wealthy customer base could support pricing over the long term 12.
- A solid balance sheet and a share repurchase program could support shareholder value if operating performance improves 3.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in adjusted home sales gross margin versus the 26.1% full-year guidanceQ4 fiscal 2026
- Completion of the remaining multifamily portfolio sale to Kennedy WilsonQ2 fiscal 2026
- Guidance for fiscal 2027 on community count and home sales revenues2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Toll Brothers designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for a range of luxury single-family detached, attached, master-planned and urban communities, aimed at first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult and second-home buyers 1. At October 31, 2025 it operated in 24 states and the District of Columbia, and over five years it delivered 52,203 homes 1. The company owns architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance and landscaping subsidiaries, which lets it control several stages of the value chain 1.
In recent years the company has increased its share of spec homes, started without a signed contract, which can be delivered faster and attract buyers who need a home soon; about 54% of fiscal 2025 deliveries were spec homes 1. The owned or optioned land portfolio stood at about 76,100 lots at October 31, 2025 1. By July 31, 2026 controlled lots had fallen to 75,486, while selling communities rose to 471 23.
In September 2025 the company announced an exit from multifamily development, starting with the sale of part of its portfolio and its operating platform to Kennedy Wilson, and a significant part of that deal was completed in December 2025 1. Rental activity therefore sits outside the core model of selling homes to owners 1.
Segments
North, Mid-Atlantic, South, Mountain and Pacific
Operations are organized into five geographic regions. At October 31, 2025 the South had the most operating communities, 177, while the Pacific region carried a large share of revenue from California, where margins tend to run above the company average 1. The Pacific and Mid-Atlantic regions drove higher average delivered prices in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 2.
Luxury and affordable luxury buyers
The company sells to both the top of the luxury market and the affordable luxury segment, aimed mainly at more affluent first-time buyers 1. Its customers tend to have higher incomes and more accumulated wealth than average, which has helped them absorb affordability pressure at the lower end of the market 2.
Market context
The US new-home market is fragmented, with many builders of different sizes, some with greater financial resources than Toll Brothers, and sales of existing homes are a direct alternative 1. Demand weakened in fiscal 2025, with net contracts down 3% in units, mainly because of affordability pressure and weaker consumer confidence 1. The company still sees a positive long-term outlook, supported by favorable demographics and a structural undersupply of homes 12.
In the quarter ended July 31, 2026 net contracts rose 5% in units, but prices and margins stayed under pressure from elevated incentives and high mortgage rates 23. If demand stays soft, elevated incentives and slower sales paces could persist in the near term 2.
Trends
- Mortgage rates and affordabilityheadwind
High mortgage rates and weaker affordability, especially at the lower end, have made home purchases harder and pressured demand 12. Higher-income buyers have been less affected, but the pressure remains visible in market behavior 2.
- Structural housing shortagetailwind
The company points to a structural undersupply of US housing after more than a decade of underbuilding, and an aging stock of existing homes 12. This could support long-term demand if rates stabilize 1.
- Higher incentives and lower marginsheadwind
To balance price and pace the company raised incentives, which cut the home sales gross margin from 25.6% to 23.9% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 23. This pattern could persist if demand remains weak 2.
- Growth in community countmixed
Selling communities rose to 471 and the company is on track for 8% to 10% community growth in fiscal 2026, which could support future volume 23. If the market stays difficult, this expansion could still absorb lower margins 3.
Competitive position
The home building industry is highly competitive and fragmented; the company competes on price, location, design, quality, service and reputation 1. Rivals include local and national builders, some with greater financial resources, and existing homes are a direct substitute 1. The company believes its size and financial stability give it an advantage over many peers 1.
Its edge lies in the luxury brand, integrated land and construction expertise, and an affluent customer base less sensitive to borrowing costs 12. If competitors with lower margins cut prices, pressure on Toll Brothers' margins could increase 1.
- Local and regional homebuilders
Smaller companies with different access to capital that compete in local markets and may offer lower prices in the affordable segment.
- National homebuilders with greater financial resources
Nationally scaled companies that can compete aggressively on price and for available land, as the source describes.
- Sellers of existing homes
Not a classic competitor, but a direct alternative for buyers, especially when new-home supply is limited.
- Land developers and joint venture partners
Partners and at the same time competitors for access to land, which can affect the cost and availability of lots.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Police find missing woman alive four days after Russian bombing of Komyshuvakha underground school. Death toll rises to 43.Euromaidan Press (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Zelenskyy says death toll from Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia region rises to 43Anadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll from Russian airstrike on Komyshuvakha rises to 43 – ZelenskyUkrinform (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll from Russian strike on aid center in southeastern Ukraine rises to 42Anadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russian attacks kill 9, injure 19 across Ukraine over past day, as casualty toll from Russian strikes in Kherson Oblast rises following end of ceasefireKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll from airstrike on Komyshuvakha rises to 42, search operations continueUkrinform (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Israel kills man to push Gaza truce violation death toll past 1,600Daily Sabah — Economy (TR, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Missile War Monitor: More than 200 drones attack Russia's Ryazan region as Komyshuvakha toll rises to 40bne IntelliNews (EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll in Indian Himalayas avalanche rises to 4, with 4 still missingAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Amid Iran conflict, ‘non-hostile’ deaths of 2 US airmen raise overseas tollDefense News (US, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll in Russian attack on aid centre up to 40: ZelenskyyCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukraine raises death toll from Russian strike on Zaporizhia to 40 peopleAl Jazeera English · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- When customers cross the line: Study reveals hidden toll of harassment on gig workersPhys.org · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russian attacks disrupt power in Kyiv, while death toll in a stricken village rises to 40The Hindu — International · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Zelensky: Death toll in Komyshuvakha rises to 40, more than 30 may remain trapped under rubbleUkrinform (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukraine says death toll in Russian attack on aid center in Zaporizhzhia region rises to 37Anadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll from Russian attack on Komyshuvakha rises to 37 as search operation enters 3rd dayKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll in Komyshuvakha rises to 37 as search operations continueUkrinform (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Death toll from Russian strike on Komyshuvakha rises to 37, search and rescue operations continueUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Latvia Seeks Emergency UN Security Council Meeting as Komyshuvakha Death Toll Hits 31Kyiv Post · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report28 Aug 2026
- Current report18 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 May 2026
- Current report19 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Mar 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report27 Feb 2026
- Current report17 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Feb 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-10-31 · SEC / Toll Brothers, Inc. · 19 Dec 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Toll Brothers, Inc. · 28 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Toll Brothers, Inc. · 18 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.