olivLaw · US equity research
NVR, Inc. NVR
Operative Builders · SIC 1531 · Vertical: Operative Builders (SIC 1531)
NVR, Inc. is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, with a mortgage banking arm serving its buyers. In the third quarter of 2026 consolidated revenues fell to $2.40 billion and homebuilding gross margin dropped to 18.3%. The company says weak demand, prices and margins may continue.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NVR, Inc. (NVR) stock was 6,376.82 USD (+5.84% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.9 bn USD, P/E 17.6 on diluted EPS of 362.78 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.49, 52-week range 5,563.62–8,097.25 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.4 bn USD (−7.9% YoY), net income of 248.6 m USD (−27.5% YoY), diluted EPS 89.45 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5,610.01 – 6,271.35
- above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 11.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6,105.03 / 6,519.17
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 14.12 / -42.16
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.8% | −1.1% | +7.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.2% | −0.5% | +0.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +4.5% | +4.4% | +0.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −12.6% | +12.3% | −24.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −10.8% | +13.5% | −24.3 pp | −9.2% |
| 3 years | +8.3% | +76.4% | −68.2 pp | +22.3% |
| 5 years | +25.3% | +63.7% | −38.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.0 m | 5.8 m | 5.7 m ≈ | 6.1 m ≈ | 6.9 m | 6.7 m | 6.4 m ≈ | 6.7 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | — | 7.5 m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Income tax | 115.2 m | 102.4 m | 113.4 m | 101.4 m | 104.9 m | 53.3 m | 82.2 m | 86.1 m |
| Net income | 457.4 m | 299.6 m | 333.7 m | 342.7 m | 363.8 m | 198.4 m | 236.5 m | 248.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 139.72 ≈ | 94.83 | 108.54 | 112.33 | 121.61 ≈ | 67.76 | 83.96 | 89.45 |
| Operating cash flow | 637.1 m | 207.8 m | 35.1 m ≈ | 438.7 m ≈ | 439.7 m | 339.7 m | -151.5 m ≈ | 223.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 5.6 m | 7.1 m | 8.3 m ≈ | 5.4 m ≈ | 3.7 m | 4.9 m | 6.2 m ≈ | 18.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 564.3 m | 583.4 m | 471.4 m ≈ | 276.4 m ≈ | 502.1 m | 632.0 m | 373.6 m ≈ | 237.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 64 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 8.9, median 16.7, max 27.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.2 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.5 bn | 9.0 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.5 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +13.6% | +3.1% | +2.0% | +18.8% | +17.6% | −9.6% | +10.6% | −1.9% |
| Net income | 797.2 m | 878.5 m | 901.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +48.3% | +10.2% | +2.6% | +37.2% | +39.5% | −7.8% | +5.7% | −20.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 194.80 | 221.13 | 230.11 | 320.48 | 491.82 | 463.31 | 506.69 | 436.55 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +53.7% | +13.5% | +4.1% | +39.3% | +53.5% | −5.8% | +9.4% | −13.8% |
| net % | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 13.0% |
| Free cash flow | 703.5 m | 843.8 m | 909.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 3.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 33.2%
- ROA
- 21.9%
- FCF margin
- 10.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.5 bn | 9.0 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.5 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 22.0 m | 19.5 m | 17.4 m | 16.9 m | 18.4 m | 24.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 40.9 m | 53.1 m | 39.5 m | 27.7 m | 27.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2025verified |
| Income tax | 176.8 m | 353.7 m | 527.6 m | 336.8 m | 433.6 m | 422.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 901.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 230.11 | 320.48 | 491.82 | 463.31 | 506.69 | 436.55 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 3.9 m | 3.9 m | 3.5 m | 3.4 m | 3.3 m | 3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.8 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.4 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.1 bn † | 3.0 bn † | 3.5 bn † | 4.4 bn † | 4.2 bn † | 3.9 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 925.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 16.1 m | 17.9 m | 18.4 m | 24.9 m | 29.2 m | 24.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 909.2 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.9 m | -18.2 m | -27.4 m | -24.1 m | -26.6 m | -71.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 727.6 m | -1.4 bn | -1.9 bn | -833.0 m | -1.9 bn | -1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 371.1 m | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
54% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4,821.64 – 5,818.47 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E4,821.64 – 5,818.47 (Mid 5,414.96)12 companies used · median multiple 14.9x · quartiles 13.3x – 16.0xCCS, DFH, DHI, ECG, GRBK, KBH, LGIH, MHO, MTH, PHM, SDHC, TOL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.2% | 87 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 78.1% | 69 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.6x | 15 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.8% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation35/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NVR, Inc. (NVR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 10.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.9%; net margin 11.2%; ROE 28.3%.
The estimated value range is 4,821.64–5,818.47 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5,414.96 USD, the price of 6,376.82 USD leaves a potential of -15.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -17.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.3%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -3.9%
- P/E (TTM): 17.6x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Operative Builders (SIC 1531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | 43.9 bn | 14.9 | 12.8% | 9.2% | −6.9% | −1% / +23% |
| PHMPultegroup, Inc. | 25.0 bn | 14.5 | 13.9% | 11.2% | −3.5% | +7% / +54% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 17.6 | 28.3% | 11.2% | −1.9% | −11% / +8% |
| TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | 14.6 bn | 12.7 | 14.4% | 11.1% | +1.1% | +13% / +85% |
| MTHMeritage Homes Corporation | 4.7 bn | 16.5 | 5.8% | — | unavailable | +0% / +4% |
| ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc. | 4.1 bn | 16.0 | 39.5% | 6.0% | +31.5% | −13% / unavailable |
| MHOM/i Homes, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 13.1 | 8.7% | 6.6% | −1.9% | +0% / +31% |
| KBHKb Home | 3.2 bn | 14.9 | 5.9% | 4.4% | −10.0% | −17% / +2% |
| GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | 2.8 bn | 10.7 | 14.3% | 14.2% | −1.0% | −2% / +40% |
| CCSCentury Communities, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 15.2 | 4.2% | 2.9% | −6.4% | −12% / −21% |
| LGIHLgi Homes, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 16.0 | 3.4% | 4.2% | −22.6% | −6% / −59% |
| BZHBeazer Homes USA Inc | 893.2 m | — | -0.7% | -0.4% | +1.8% | +49% / +38% |
| HOVHovnanian Enterprises Inc | 79.6 m | 81.2 | 2.2% | 0.6% | −0.9% | −16% / +22% |
| DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc. | — | 13.3 | 7.6% | 2.6% | −2.9% | −35% / −47% |
| SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp. | — | 18.0 | 6.0% | 0.5% | −0.4% | −50% / unavailable |
| LGPSLogprostyle Inc. | — | — | 19.7% | 3.4% | +7.6% | −43% / unavailable |
| LRELead Real Estate Co., Ltd | — | — | 12.2% | 3.5% | −3.5% | −14% / −84% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NVR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3,899.84 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 6,912.60 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 10,436.93 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 3,403.54 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 6,823.67 Total return 7% · Per year 2% | 11,365.71 Total return 78% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 2,970.40 Total return -53% · Per year -14% | 6,735.89 Total return 6% · Per year 1% | 12,377.15 Total return 94% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 1,705.92
- Net margin± 1,194.14
- Annual revenue growth± 1,031.07
- Annual dilution± 100.34
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
NVR, Inc. is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, with a mortgage banking arm serving its buyers. In the third quarter of 2026 consolidated revenues fell to $2.40 billion and homebuilding gross margin dropped to 18.3% 3. The company says weak demand, prices and margins may continue 2.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Interest rates and mortgage accesshigh
High rates or tighter mortgage credit can reduce demand and raise cancellations from backlog 1.
- Inventory and deposit impairmenthigh
Falling land and home values can lead to forfeited deposits and impairments that hit profit 1.
- Materials and labor costsmedium
Rising material and labor costs can squeeze margins and delay construction 1.
- Construction defect claimsmedium
Defect and warranty claims can create unplanned costs, especially if subcontractors fall short of standards 1.
- Mortgage loan repurchase exposuremedium
If loans sold to investors fail underwriting requirements or trigger repurchase demands, results could suffer 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand stabilizes, the large backlog and solid balance sheet could support a margin recovery and higher profit 2.
- Disciplined land buying could let the company grow during volatile periods when rivals are more constrained 2.
- A large base of controlled lots provides capacity to build without costly near-term acquisitions 3.
What to watch
- Trend in homebuilding gross margin and average selling pricesQ4 2026
- Order cancellation rate and backlog developmentQ4 2026
- Company guidance on revenue and margins for the coming year2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
NVR, Inc. is a Virginia corporation formed in 1980 as NVHomes, Inc. Its primary business is building and selling single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, largely on a pre-sold basis 1. It operates in thirty-seven metropolitan areas in sixteen states and Washington, D.C., under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes and Heartland Homes names 1. Its mortgage subsidiary, NVR Mortgage Finance, Inc., originates loans exclusively for NVR's homebuyers 1.
The company generally avoids land development, buying finished lots from third-party developers under fixed price agreements that require forfeitable deposits 1. Management says this approach maximizes inventory turnover and lets NVR operate with less capital 2.
Market context
Demand for new homes remains hurt by affordability problems, high inventories in some markets and weak consumer confidence 2. Mortgage rates and financing availability directly affect whether buyers can complete purchases, and weaker demand shows up in higher cancellation rates 1.
The industry is competitive and cyclical, sensitive to interest rates, consumer confidence and the cost of land and materials. Competition also comes from the resale home market 1.
Trends
- Margin pressureheadwind
Higher land costs and price cuts to attract buyers have reduced gross margins. If these trends persist, results could stay below earlier levels 3.
- Weaker demandheadwind
New orders declined in 2025 and in the third quarter of 2026, and consumer confidence remains weak. Lower demand could keep weighing on sales volume 2.
- Larger backlogmixed
Backlog rose in units and dollars compared with September 2025, giving a base of future revenue if cancellations stay under control 3.
- Solid balance sheettailwind
The company says its strong balance sheet lets it take advantage of opportunities from economic and housing market volatility 2.
Competitive position
NVR competes with numerous homebuilders of varying size, from local to national, some with greater financial resources, as well as the resale home market. Competition centers on price, location, design, quality, service and reputation 1.
The mortgage unit competes with national, regional and local mortgage bankers, credit unions, banks and brokers on customer service, product range and interest rates 1.
- Lennar CorporationLEN
A national homebuilder that competes with NVR in many of its markets. Named here as a general example of a national competitor, not from the source texts above.
- D.R. HortonDHI
A national homebuilder that competes directly with NVR on price and lots. Based on general knowledge, not on the supplied sources.
- Local and regional builders
Smaller companies active in NVR's regional markets, described only in general terms in the sources.
- Banks and mortgage bankers
Competitors of the mortgage banking unit, especially in markets where NVR operates.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report22 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement17 Mar 2026
- Annual report11 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NVR, Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NVR, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NVR, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.