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olivLaw · US equity research

Landstar System, Inc. LSTR

Trucking (No Local) · SIC 4213 · Vertical: Trucking (No Local) (SIC 4213)

151.25USD+0.13% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Landstar System is an asset-light provider of transportation and logistics services that operates through a network of independent commission sales agents and third-party capacity providers, without owning a large fleet. The company reported second-quarter 2026 revenue growing 18% to 1.432 billion USD amid improving freight demand, while rising insurance and claims costs remain a key pressure.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) stock was 151.25 USD (+0.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.1 bn USD, P/E 32.0 on diluted EPS of 4.72 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.41%, beta 0.77, 52-week range 121.51–225.37 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.5 bn USD (+25.4% YoY), net income of 48.0 m USD (+148.1% YoY), diluted EPS 1.42 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.1 bn USD
shares as of 19 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
32.0
Diluted EPS TTM 4.72 · TTM to 26 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.12%
TTM to 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.41%
DPS 12m 3.64
Beta (2y)
0.77
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
121.51225.37

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
39.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
139.47 – 184.44
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 27.8%
SMA 50 / 200
168.14 / 176.74
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-6.29 / -4.76
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−11.7%−2.0%−9.7 pp—
3 months−15.7%−2.2%−13.5 pp—
6 months−16.6%+4.3%−20.9 pp—
Year to date+5.3%+10.6%−5.3 pp—
1 year+18.2%+10.5%+7.7 pp+34.0%
3 years−11.1%+73.7%−84.7 pp+4.3%
5 years−14.0%+61.7%−75.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−38.4%
08 Jun 2026 → 28 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−41.2%
26 Jul 2023 → 23 Sept 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−3.0%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.5 bn USD
+25.4% YoY
Net income
48.0 m USD
+148.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.42
+153.6% YoY
net / operating
3.2% / 4.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn
SG&A55.1 m61.6 m55.7 m57.0 m56.2 m61.0 m68.2 m62.4 m
Operating income57.8 m39.4 m56.3 m26.3 m29.6 m53.2 m66.2 m65.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation12.7 m12.2 m12.1 m11.5 m10.5 m10.6 m10.4 m9.9 m
Interest expense1.2 m1.5 m1.4 m1.4 m1.3 m1.3 m1.3 m1.2 m
Pre-tax income58.7 m39.6 m55.6 m26.1 m29.3 m52.7 m65.4 m65.2 m
Income tax12.5 m9.8 m13.7 m6.7 m5.4 m13.3 m16.5 m17.1 m
Net income46.2 m29.8 m41.9 m19.4 m23.9 m39.4 m49.0 m48.0 m
Diluted EPS1.31 ≈0.851.200.560.70 ≈1.161.441.42
Operating cash flow61.1 m55.7 m7.1 m ≈89.3 m ≈72.7 m78.2 m-50.4 m ≈70.9 m ≈
Capex6.7 m1.9 m2.5 m ≈3.3 m ≈2.2 m5.8 m2.9 m ≈2.9 m ≈
Dividends paid12.7 m83.3 m13.9 m ≈13.9 m ≈13.7 m81.7 m13.6 m ≈14.9 m ≈
Share repurchases2.7 m60.4 m41.9 m ≈40.9 m ≈36.6 m22.4 m1.8 m ≈41.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 11.8, median 24.7, max 54.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue4.6 bn4.1 bn4.1 bn6.5 bn7.4 bn5.3 bn4.8 bn4.7 bn
Revenue YoY+26.6%−11.5%+1.2%+58.2%+13.8%−28.7%−9.1%−1.6%
Net income255.3 m227.7 m192.1 m381.5 m430.9 m264.4 m195.9 m115.0 m
Net income YoY+44.2%−10.8%−15.6%+98.6%+12.9%−38.6%−25.9%−41.3%
Diluted EPS6.185.724.989.9811.767.365.513.31
Diluted EPS YoY+46.8%−7.4%−12.9%+100.4%+17.8%−37.4%−25.1%−39.9%
net %5.5%5.6%4.6%5.8%5.8%5.0%4.1%2.4%
Free cash flow288.2 m288.4 m180.1 m253.5 m596.7 m368.0 m255.6 m215.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025

Cash
396.7 m USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-396.7 m USD
Equity
795.7 m USD
Total assets
1.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
1.75x
ROE
13.0%
ROA
6.7%
FCF margin
4.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
5.3 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
211.8 m
2024
217.7 m
2025
230.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
344.1 m
2024
248.9 m
2025
151.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
58.2 m
2024
56.7 m
2025
46.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
402.3 m ≈
2024
305.6 m ≈
2025
198.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
3.9 m
2024
4.1 m
2025
5.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
348.1 m
2024
254.3 m
2025
150.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
83.7 m
2024
58.4 m
2025
35.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
264.4 m
2024
195.9 m
2025
115.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
7.36
2024
5.51
2025
3.31

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
35.9 m
2024
35.5 m
2025
34.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
3.26
2024
3.38
2025
3.56

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
481.0 m
2024
515.0 m
2025
396.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
—
2025
670.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
284.3 m
2024
311.3 m
2025
261.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
42.3 m
2024
40.9 m
2025
34.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
396.0 m
2024
383.6 m
2025
369.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
675.2 m
2024
673.2 m
2025
695.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
983.9 m
2024
972.4 m
2025
795.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
393.6 m
2024
286.6 m
2025
224.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
25.7 m
2024
31.0 m
2025
9.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
368.0 m ≈
2024
255.6 m ≈
2025
215.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-6.5 m
2024
-10.5 m
2025
-2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-248.0 m
2024
-237.3 m
2025
-343.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
117.1 m
2024
120.5 m
2025
124.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
53.9 m
2024
81.4 m
2025
179.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-13.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-39.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-41.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-35.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-9.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-39.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-34.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-15.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF margin
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
18.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROA
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
20.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
77.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
78.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
42.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
171.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
13.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
157.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
98.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
67.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
62 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
31.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
32.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
6.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/S
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
32.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

151.25 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
32.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
6.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
18.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 26 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 19 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 2524derived 177

Score by group

  • Valuation66
  • Returns62
  • Quality86
  • Balance sheet93
  • Growth0

Estimated value range

Low
104.17
USD per share
Mid
110.93
USD per share
High
172.19
USD per share
Price: 151.25 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -26.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -36.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.78 – 281.47 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E161.55 – 281.47 (Mid 168.21)
    6 companies used · median multiple 35.6x · quartiles 34.2x – 59.6x
    JBHT, KNX, MRTN, ODFL, SAIA, SNDR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)46.78 – 62.91 (Mid 53.66)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Trucking (No Local) (SIC 4213)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality3.0%75 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality98.3%98 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-13.9%0 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-34.5%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet42.4x100 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x83 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation32.0x88 (vs peers)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation3.1%39 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.4%63 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns78.6%59 (on a fixed band)6%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality86/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns62/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

Memo

LANDSTAR SYSTEM, INC. (LSTR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.6%; net margin 3.0%; ROE 18.7%.

The estimated value range is 104.17–172.19 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 110.93 USD, the price of 151.25 USD leaves a potential of -26.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -36.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 3.0%
  • FCF conversion: 98.3%
  • Interest coverage: 42.4x
  • Current ratio: 1.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 32.0x

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -13.9%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -34.5%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Trucking (No Local) (SIC 4213) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
32.0x
vertical median 52.1x
below median (−38.5%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 15.1x
P/S
1.0x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−16.3%)
P/B
6.1x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+313.3%)
ROE
18.7%
vertical median 1.5%
above median (+1,180.5%)
Net margin
3.0%
vertical median 0.9%
above median (+225.7%)
EBIT margin
4.1%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+219.4%)
Revenue YoY
-1.6%
vertical median -2.9%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.3x
Dividend yield
2.4%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+92.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.36.8 bn34.224.8%19.4%−5.5%+31% / −9%
JBHTJ.b. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.20.9 bn31.618.8%5.1%−0.7%+29% / +21%
KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.10.2 bn67.22.2%1.9%+0.8%+36% / +16%
SAIASaia, Inc.9.7 bn34.310.6%8.0%+0.8%+28% / −7%
LSTRLandstar System, Inc.5.1 bn32.018.7%3.0%−1.6%+18% / −11%
ARCBArcbest Corporation3.1 bn201.51.3%0.4%−4.0%+117% / +17%
WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.1.8 bn—-3.3%-1.4%−1.8%+15% / −27%
MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.1.0 bn74.81.6%1.5%−8.3%+21% / −34%
ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.862.8 m—-15.1%-6.0%−15.6%+118% / +32%
HTLDHeartland Express Inc829.0 m—-2.8%-3.0%−23.1%+36% / −20%
PAMTPamt Corp259.3 m—-18.9%-7.1%−16.3%+38% / −34%
SNDRSchneider National, Inc.—37.04.6%2.4%+7.3%+32% / +29%
CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.—237.70.9%0.3%+2.9%+70% / +59%

1- and 3-year price returns: for LSTR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
81.52
Total return -44% · Per year -44%
144.84
Total return -2% · Per year -2%
219.17
Total return 48% · Per year 48%
3 years
64.73
Total return -53% · Per year -22%
130.72
Total return -7% · Per year -2%
219.17
Total return 53% · Per year 15%
5 years
51.40
Total return -59% · Per year -16%
117.97
Total return -12% · Per year -2%
219.17
Total return 59% · Per year 10%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 32.68
  • Net margin± 22.88
  • Annual revenue growth± 20.66
  • Annual dilution± 1.92

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Landstar System is an asset-light provider of transportation and logistics services that operates through a network of independent commission sales agents and third-party capacity providers, without owning a large fleet. The company reported second-quarter 2026 revenue growing 18% to 1.432 billion USD amid improving freight demand, while rising insurance and claims costs remain a key pressure. 3

SWOT

Strengths

  • Asset-light model with low fixed costs and high return on invested capital, supported by a large network of agents and contractors.
  • Strong balance sheet with substantial liquidity and a consistent dividend paid to shareholders.
  • Proprietary digital platform linking agents, capacity and customers, supporting operational efficiency.

Weaknesses

  • High dependence on a limited number of large agents that generate most of the revenue.
  • Exposure to insurance and claims costs, which can rise quickly and affect results.
  • Reliance on third parties for nearly all transport capacity, limiting control over quality and costs.

Opportunities

  • A recovery in freight demand could support higher volumes and revenue going forward.
  • Expanding the BCO contractor base and recruiting new agents could strengthen market position.
  • Developing digital services and integrated logistics solutions could raise value added.

Threats

  • Nuclear verdicts and claims against brokers could generate unexpected costs.
  • Withdrawal of insurers from excess coverage could reduce the availability of protection.
  • Cargo theft and sophisticated fraud could increase exposure to cargo losses.

Risks

  • Accident and claims exposurehigh

    Severe accidents and large judgments could generate insurance and claims costs above estimates, with direct impact on results.

  • Broker liabilityhigh

    Case law on claims against brokers may be changed by the Supreme Court decision, which could increase or reduce the company's exposure.

  • Dependence on large agentsmedium

    A small number of agents generates a very large share of revenue, and losing one could significantly affect volumes.

  • Dependence on third-party capacitymedium

    Without an owned fleet, availability and cost of capacity depend on third parties, which can affect margins in periods of high demand.

  • Fraud and cargo theftmedium

    Rising sophisticated supply chain fraud could lead to cargo losses and additional legal costs.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the freight demand recovery consolidates, rising revenue and volumes could amplify the operating leverage of the asset-light model.
  • The extensive agent and contractor network and proprietary digital platform offer an advantage that is hard to replicate and can support market share.
  • A solid balance sheet and a steady dividend policy could support shareholder returns even in periods of volatility.

What would break the thesis

  • If insurance and claims costs keep rising, they could erode margins gained from the demand recovery.
  • Concentration of revenue in a few large agents could become a vulnerability if those relationships change.
  • An unfavorable change in case law on broker liability could significantly increase the company's litigation exposure.

What to watch

  • Trend in insurance costs and development of prior years' claimsQ3 2026
  • U.S. Supreme Court decision in the Montgomery case and its effect on broker liability2026
  • Pace of net BCO contractor additions and number of agents above 1 million USD in revenueQ3 2026
  • Outcome of the Cabral appeal and any gain from the no claims bonusnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Landstar presents itself as a technology-enabled asset-light company offering integrated transportation management solutions, from individual freight shipments to comprehensive third-party logistics for customers. Services are delivered through approximately 960 independent commission sales agents and over 70,000 third-party capacity providers, mainly truck capacity providers, linked by proprietary digital technology 1. Revenue of 4.7 billion USD in fiscal 2025 came mainly from truck transportation, and operating costs vary largely directly with revenue 1.

The business model depends on the ability of its agents to generate freight; agents contract with the company, while the operating subsidiaries contract directly with customers and generally assume credit risk. The company does not operate a significant owned fleet, which reduces fixed costs and raises return on invested capital, but makes it dependent on third parties for capacity and on a relatively small number of large agents 1.

The company reports two segments: transportation logistics, which generates most revenue, and insurance, which provides risk and claims management to operating subsidiaries and reinsures some risks of BCO Independent Contractors 1. Insurance segment revenue is a very small share of the total, approximately 1% 1.

Segments

Transportation logistics

This segment covers truckload, less-than-truckload, rail intermodal, air and ocean cargo, expedited, heavy-haul, hazardous materials, cold chain and cross-border services. Truck transportation accounted for about 91% of consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026, truck revenue rose 19% and revenue per load about 17% 3.

Insurance segment

The segment includes Signature Insurance Company, an offshore subsidiary, and Risk Management Claim Services, which provide risk and claims services to subsidiaries and reinsure certain risks of contractors. It is small in total revenue but plays an important role in controlling insurance costs, which have risen sharply in recent years 12.

Air and ocean services

These international air and ocean services are executed as an IATA agent and as an NVOCC. Their share of revenue declined slightly in 2025 and remained modest, and in the first half of 2026 the company indicates a share of about 4% 12.

Market context

Freight transportation in the United States and Canada went through a period of soft demand in 2024 and 2025, with declines in the number of agents above 1 million USD in revenue, but the 2026 recovery appears stronger according to company reporting 13. The market remains fragmented and dominated by independent carriers and brokers, which makes agent networks an important competitive advantage 1.

The commercial auto insurance market has tightened significantly, and availability and pricing of excess coverage above 10 million USD have risen considerably, raising costs for all operators in the sector 1. Changes in case law on broker liability could further reshape industry economics if the exception under the FAAAA is interpreted differently 13.

Trends

  • Recovery in freight demandtailwind

    In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported improving volumes and revenue per load, with net BCO truck additions reaching the strongest quarterly level since 2022 3. If the recovery holds, it could support revenue and variable contribution.

  • Surge in insurance costsheadwind

    Nuclear verdicts and rising premiums for excess coverage have increased claims costs across the industry, and Landstar reported higher insurance and claims expense in the second quarter of 2026, mainly from unfavorable development of prior years' claims 13.

  • Broker liabilitymixed

    Claims against brokers for accidents involving contracted carriers are multiplying, and the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in the Montgomery case could change the federal preemption framework, with impact on the company's exposure 13.

  • Fraud and cargo theftheadwind

    Cargo theft and supply chain fraud have grown more sophisticated, and the company faces higher exposure to cargo claims, although its own technology and verification procedures can partly mitigate the risk 1.

Competitive position

Landstar competes with other asset-light transportation and logistics providers in the United States that pursue the same shipper customers and capacity providers. The company states it has more independent commission sales agents than any other integrated asset-light provider in the United States, and that its BCO network is the largest in the country 1. Competition is intense, and insurance and capacity costs affect all players alike 1.

The company's main advantage lies in combining its agent network, digital platform and asset-light model, which allow it to serve large and small shippers with comparable service 1. Concentration of revenue in a few large agents is, however, also a competitive vulnerability 1.

  • Asset-light transportation and freight brokerage providers

    The source documents do not name specific competitors, so no concrete providers are listed; the company describes competition in integrated transportation as intense.

  • Truck brokerage carriers and third-party capacity providers

    Truck Brokerage Carriers are, for the company, a category of capacity provider rather than a direct rival; they represent a major share of revenue and capacity.

  • Commercial auto insurance providers

    Insurers providing excess coverage influence the company's costs but are not described as rivals in the analyzed sources.

  • Integrated logistics solution providers

    The company generally mentions competition from integrated logistics providers without identifying specific entities in the materials analyzed.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / Landstar System, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Landstar System, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Landstar System, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw