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olivLaw · US equity research

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited MATH

Finance Services · SIC 6199 · Vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

1.04USD+5.05% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is a Cayman Islands holding company that, after ceasing its mainland China operations, now provides digital asset services, mainly structured crypto derivative products for institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals. Revenue reached 37.1 million USD in fiscal 2026, while net profit declined sharply from the prior year.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) stock was 1.04 USD (+5.05% on the day), with market capitalisation 49.0 m USD, P/E 2.5 on diluted EPS of 0.41 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.78, 52-week range 0.75–3.17 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
49.0 m USD
shares as of 31 Mar 2026
P/E (TTM)
2.5
Diluted EPS TTM 0.41 · TTM to 31 Mar 2025
E/P (TTM)
39.42%
TTM to 31 Mar 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.78
Volatility (1y) 84%
52-week range
0.753.17

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
52.9
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.94 – 1.12
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.56 · band width 16.9%
SMA 50 / 200
0.99 / 1.09
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.00 / 0.01
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−4.6%−1.1%−3.5 pp—
3 months+12.6%−0.5%+13.0 pp—
6 months−6.3%+4.4%−10.7 pp—
Year to date−50.5%+12.3%−62.8 pp—
1 year−61.9%+13.5%−75.4 pp−47.5%
3 years−27.8%+76.4%−104.2 pp−48.3%
5 years−35.8%+63.7%−99.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−76.5%
20 Nov 2025 → 20 Aug 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−81.9%
12 Jun 2025 → 20 Aug 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−8.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 4.1, median 88.1, max 172.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022⚠ 202320242025
Revenue4.3 m2.8 m11.3 k225.7 k2.2 m5.7 m16.8 m44.6 m
Revenue YoY+19.2%−35.6%−99.6%+1,906.3%+854.9%—+194.5%+165.9%
Net income193.1 k-1.1 m-1.4 m-5.1 m-14.4 m-20.6 m-3.7 m15.8 m
Net income YoY−88.7%−647.0%unavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS0.02-0.09-0.12-0.44-0.79-0.76-0.110.41
Diluted EPS YoY−88.2%−550.0%unavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailable
net %4.5%-38.3%-12,590.8%-2,280.4%-669.9%-361.1%-21.9%35.4%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable-1.1 m-11.6 m24.7 k

The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Mar 2025

Cash
6.9 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
36.6 m USD
Total assets
246.8 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.17x
ROE
59.1%
ROA
7.5%
FCF margin
0.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
5.7 m
2024
16.8 m
2025
44.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.7 m
2024
11.1 m
2025
23.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
2.0 m
2024
5.6 m
2025
21.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

SG&A
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Aug 2021verified

Operating income
2023
-1.6 m
2024
1.3 m
2025
17.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.9 k
2024
3.2 k
2025
3.1 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
-1.6 m ≈
2024
1.3 m ≈
2025
17.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
8.5 k
2024
4.2 k
2025
75.3 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-11.7 m
2024
-3.7 m
2025
15.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Income tax
2023
218.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2024verified

Net income
2023
-20.6 m
2024
-3.7 m
2025
15.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.76
2024
-0.11
2025
0.41

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
27.0 m
2024
34.7 m
2025
38.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
6.7 m
2024
4.9 m
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Current assets
2023
55.9 m
2024
174.6 m
2025
246.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
8.4 k
2024
5.9 k
2025
50.1 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
41.1 m
2024
126.5 m
2025
221.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Total assets
2023
56.1 m
2024
174.7 m
2025
246.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.3 m
2024
11.5 m
2025
7.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
47.4 m
2024
157.9 m
2025
210.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
47.5 m
2024
157.9 m
2025
210.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Equity
2023
8.6 m
2024
16.9 m
2025
36.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
37.2 m
2024
—
2025
39.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-1.1 m
2024
-11.6 m
2025
72.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Capex
2023
3.2 k
2024
1.3 k
2025
47.3 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
-1.1 m ≈
2024
-11.6 m ≈
2025
24.7 k ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-20.4 k
2024
32.7 k
2025
-23.3 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.6 m
2024
9.7 m
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jul 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
165.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
174.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
424.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
1,209.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
47.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
39.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
39.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
35.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
59.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
ROA
7.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
47.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
231.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
72.0 k USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
47.3 k USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
24.7 k USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
145 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
49.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
3.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
2.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
39.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
P/S
1.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
1,985.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
FCF yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

1.04 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 49.0 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
49.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
P/E (TTM)
2.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
59.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2025
Net margin
35.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
165.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Mar 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Mar 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Mar 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 271

The data is older than the freshness threshold.

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
3.33
USD per share
Mid
8.59
USD per share
High
11.61
USD per share
Price: 1.04 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 725.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 87.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.33 – 11.61 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E3.33 – 11.61 (Mid 8.59)
    10 companies used · median multiple 20.9x · quartiles 8.1x – 28.3x
    ATCH, AXP, JFU, NU, PGY, PURR, RHLD, SNFCA, SOFI, UPST
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality35.4%86 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Quality0.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth174.5%100 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet231.7x100 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x31 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation2.5x100 (vs peers)21%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation0.1%1 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet72/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-03-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 44.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 165.9%; net margin 35.4%; ROE 59.1%.

The estimated value range is 3.33–11.61 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 8.59 USD, the price of 1.04 USD leaves a potential of 725.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 87.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 35.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 174.5%
  • Interest coverage: 231.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 2.5x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 0.2%
  • FCF yield: 0.1%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Finance Services (SIC 6199) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
2.5x
vertical median 23.7x
below median (−89.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
1.1x
vertical median 4.7x
below median (−76.7%)
P/B
1.3x
vertical median 1.3x
at median
ROE
59.1%
vertical median -17.4%
above median
Net margin
35.4%
vertical median -99.7%
above median
EBIT margin
39.1%
vertical median -116.6%
above median
Revenue YoY
165.9%
vertical median 21.9%
above median (+657.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AXPAmerican Express Co223.0 bn18.735.9%27.9%+6.4%−9% / +95%
ARBKArgo Blockchain PLC45.2 bn——-117.2%−7.0%−97% / −99%
COINCoinbase Global, Inc.40.1 bn—-4.7%-12.5%+9.4%−44% / +21%
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.22.4 bn36.37.1%104.3%+23.1%−42% / +138%
MARAMara Holdings, Inc.2.7 bn—-107.2%-430.2%+38.2%−42% / −43%
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.2.3 bn39.98.0%4.9%+64.0%−48% / −13%
PURRHyperliquid Strategies Inc1.9 bn3.032.6%3,229.8%unavailableunavailable / unavailable
CLSKCleanSpark, Inc.1.7 bn—-68.6%-130.2%+102.2%−55% / +9%
BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group1.5 bn—-196.7%-171.3%−5.1%−51% / +45%
RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc.1.0 bn24.1—4.2%+9.9%−26% / unavailable
CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc.741.4 m—-12.3%-182.5%+277.9%−30% / +622%
GDOTGreen Dot Corp727.1 m—-2.8%-1.1%+20.7%+2% / +59%
TRONTron Inc.664.1 m96.83.8%135.6%+10.0%−24% / −48%
JFU9F Inc.536.7 m23.24.7%125.2%+12.2%−52% / −43%
BTBTBit Digital, Inc.300.9 m—-56.7%-237.2%+5.1%−65% / −68%
CANGCango Inc.272.7 m—-130.8%-90.4%+524.3%−92% / −76%
CNTNCanton Strategic Holdings, Inc.172.1 m—-43.1%—unavailable−17% / −83%
USBCUsbc, Inc.166.5 m—-414.1%—−100.0%−47% / −97%
SNFCASecurity National Financial Corporation166.1 m6.59.0%11.1%+3.0%+15% / +37%
TONXTon Strategy Company159.7 m—-75.5%-532.8%+1,327.8%−15% / −93%
BMHLBluemount Holdings Limited79.0 m61,098.226.2%18.8%unavailable−8% / unavailable
UPXIUpexi, Inc.62.9 m—-1,356.3%-984.3%+58.1%−73% / −95%
MATHMetalpha Technology Holding Limited49.0 m2.559.1%35.4%+165.9%−62% / −28%
SGRXSangrix Inc.40.8 m—-300.3%-36,190.3%−98.6%−99% / −100%
AVXAvax One Technology Ltd.34.9 m—-189.6%-1,533.9%+8,709.3%−80% / −100%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MATH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
0.56
Total return -47% · Per year -47%
0.98
Total return -6% · Per year -6%
1.47
Total return 41% · Per year 41%
3 years
0.66
Total return -37% · Per year -14%
1.29
Total return 24% · Per year 7%
2.11
Total return 103% · Per year 27%
5 years
0.78
Total return -25% · Per year -6%
1.71
Total return 64% · Per year 10%
3.04
Total return 192% · Per year 24%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 0.32
  • Net margin± 0.23
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.17
  • Annual dilution± 0.02

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Sept 2026).

In brief

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is a Cayman Islands holding company that, after ceasing its mainland China operations, now provides digital asset services, mainly structured crypto derivative products for institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals. Revenue reached 37.1 million USD in fiscal 2026, while net profit declined sharply from the prior year.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a clearly defined strategy focused on institutional and high-net-worth clients, which may provide more stable relationships than the retail segment.
  • The trading team and experience across financial and technology sectors are regarded by the company as important assets.
  • Its hedging structure reduces exposure to one-sided market moves, which may protect operating results.

Weaknesses

  • The operating history in this field is short and the business model is still being tested by the market, which makes results volatile.
  • The company depends on a few large clients, and a substantial shareholder plays an important role in product subscriptions.
  • General and administrative expenses rose sharply in fiscal 2026, which significantly reduced profit.

Opportunities

  • If institutional interest in digital assets continues, structured products could attract new clients.
  • Expansion into North America through the Canadian joint venture could diversify revenue sources.
  • Hong Kong licenses could support advisory and asset management services for clients seeking regulated exposure.

Threats

  • A fall in cryptocurrency prices or higher volatility could reduce client demand for the company's products.
  • Regulatory changes in the jurisdictions where the company operates could restrict its activity or raise compliance costs.
  • Problems at trading and custody partners could interrupt services or lead to loss of assets.

Risks

  • Client concentrationhigh

    A small number of clients account for a significant share of transaction volume. If they reduce or stop subscriptions, revenue could fall quickly.

  • Dependence on a shareholder-clienthigh

    A substantial shareholder is also an important client and service provider. A deterioration in that relationship could affect subscriptions and operations.

  • Custody and trading partner riskhigh

    Operations depend on partners such as Binance for trading and custody. Security incidents or regulatory sanctions could lead to loss of assets or interruptions.

  • Evolving regulatory landscapemedium

    Digital asset rules are changing quickly in several jurisdictions. Failure to comply could damage reputation and the continuity of the business.

  • Need for additional capitalmedium

    The company states current resources should cover at least the next 12 months, but if cash flows weaken, new capital could be needed, with possible dilution.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If institutional interest in digital assets grows, the company could benefit from demand for its structured products and sustain its revenue.
  • Cost control or stronger operating profitability could show that the business model is becoming more efficient after years of testing.
  • Expansion in North America and the Hong Kong licenses could open new revenue sources and reduce dependence on a single segment.

What would break the thesis

  • Revenue declined in fiscal 2026 and net profit fell sharply, which could indicate difficulty sustaining results.
  • Reliance on a few clients and on a shareholder-client could expose the company to sudden losses of revenue.
  • If regulation tightens or trading partners face problems, operations could be seriously affected.

What to watch

  • Trend of digital asset revenue and the number of large clientsNext 10-K
  • Level of general and administrative expenses after the fiscal 2026 increase2027
  • Progress of the NOWLIT joint venture in Canada2027
  • Cash position and the need for additional financingNext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Sept 2026).

The business

The company no longer has operations in mainland China, having disposed of its supply chain management platform by March 2023 and terminated the VIE structure. Its main activity is providing digital asset services through subsidiaries, mainly structured derivative products based on cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, alongside proprietary trading. Income from these services was 37.1 million USD in fiscal 2026 1.

Its Hong Kong subsidiary, LSQ Capital Limited, holds SFC Type 4 and Type 9 licenses and offers securities advisory and asset management services. The company reported revenue from these activities in fiscal 2025 but none in fiscal 2026 1.

Target clients are institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals rather than the general public, and the company argues its structures offer risk-adjusted exposure compared with direct cryptocurrency purchases. An April 2024 joint venture, NOWLIT FinTech Solutions Corp. in Canada, aims to expand its presence in North America 1.

Segments

Digital asset services

This is the main revenue source, including gains on trading of digital assets, listed securities and derivative contracts, plus interest and service fee income. Revenue fell from 41.5 million USD in fiscal 2025 to 37.1 million USD in fiscal 2026 1.

Advisory and asset management (Hong Kong)

Through LSQ Capital Limited, this segment contributed 3.1 million USD of revenue in fiscal 2025 and nothing in fiscal 2026. The company also disposed of its 40% interest in NextGen Fund in June 2025 1.

Discontinued supply chain platform

The mainland China supply chain platform generated no revenue in fiscal 2024, 2025 or 2026, as operations ceased in January 2023 and were fully divested by March 2023 1.

Market context

The company operates in the market for structured financial products linked to cryptocurrencies, aimed at institutional and professional investors. The source notes that the sector has been marked by volatility and by the collapse of major platforms such as FTX and Luna, which affected investor confidence 1.

Regulation is still evolving, both in the British Virgin Islands under the VASP Act effective February 2023 and in Hong Kong, where the framework for virtual assets is developing. The company notes that regulatory changes could adversely affect its business 1.

Trends

  • Volatility in crypto marketsheadwind

    The value of the company's products depends on cryptocurrency prices. If prices fall or become more volatile, clients could reduce purchases, which would affect revenue 1.

  • Institutional interest in digital assetstailwind

    The company argues that crypto is increasingly recognized within traditional finance, which could open opportunities for structured products aimed at institutions 1.

  • Regulatory scrutiny of trading platformsmixed

    US and other authorities have increased scrutiny of crypto trading service providers. If key partners such as Binance were found in violation, restrictions or additional compliance costs could follow 1.

  • Expansion into North Americatailwind

    Through the NOWLIT joint venture in Canada, the company aims to build a presence in the North American digital asset market. The effect depends on winning clients and on local regulation 1.

Competitive position

The source does not explicitly identify the company's competitors or provide comparative market share data. The company differentiates itself by targeting institutions and high-net-worth clients rather than the retail public, which it considers less stable 1.

The company depends on industry partners for trading and custody, such as Binance and Deribit, so competitive pressure and supplier conditions directly influence its operations 1.

  • Binance

    Primary trading and custody provider and also an important client; the relationship carries reputational and regulatory risk.

  • Deribit

    Key industry partner for trading and custody, cited as an operational dependency.

  • Northstar Technologies

    Substantial shareholder and key client, which also provides technical services to the company.

  • Retail-focused crypto platforms

    The source notes that other crypto enterprises mainly serve retail individuals, unlike Metalpha.

News & filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / Metalpha Technology Holding Limited · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.