olivLaw · US equity research
Magnite, Inc. MGNI
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. · SIC 7370 · Vertical: Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370)
Magnite is the world's largest independent sell-side advertising platform, with a focus on connected TV (CTV). The company automates the buying and selling of digital ad inventory and could benefit from advertising budgets moving from linear TV to streaming, as well as from the outcome of its lawsuit against Google. Second-quarter 2026 results showed revenue rising to 192.8 million USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Magnite, Inc. (MGNI) stock was 22.79 USD (+2.01% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 19.9 on diluted EPS of 1.14 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.68, 52-week range 11.20–25.67 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 204.2 m USD (+13.8% YoY), net income of 34.0 m USD (+69.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.23 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 20.69 – 25.90
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.40 · band width 22.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 23.90 / 17.71
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.60 / -0.52
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.7% | −1.1% | −7.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.3% | −0.5% | +10.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +70.2% | +4.4% | +65.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +40.4% | +12.3% | +28.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +36.2% | +13.5% | +22.7 pp | −20.6% |
| 3 years | +208.0% | +76.4% | +131.6 pp | −22.6% |
| 5 years | +0.6% | +63.7% | −63.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 194.0 m | 155.8 m | 173.3 m | 179.5 m | 205.4 m | 164.4 m | 192.8 m | 204.2 m |
| Cost of revenue | 67.8 m | 62.8 m | 65.0 m | 69.4 m | 69.5 m | 60.4 m | 62.0 m | 64.0 m |
| Research & development | 22.3 m | 22.3 m | 21.6 m | 20.2 m | 20.6 m | 25.2 m | 24.1 m | 21.4 m |
| Operating income | 40.2 m | -1.4 m | 22.0 m | 25.0 m | 52.0 m | 7.7 m | 31.2 m | 50.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 16.2 m | 15.6 m | 12.2 m ≈ | 12.3 m ≈ | 13.6 m | 14.4 m | 14.6 m ≈ | 13.9 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 5.4 m | 5.2 m | 5.1 m | 4.7 m | 4.0 m | 4.6 m | 6.3 m | 4.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 42.3 m | -10.5 m | 12.1 m | 20.9 m | 48.1 m | 3.7 m | 25.5 m | 45.6 m |
| Income tax | 5.9 m | -853.0 k | 958.0 k | 885.0 k | -75.0 m | -681.0 k | 6.2 m | 11.6 m |
| Net income | 36.4 m | -9.6 m | 11.1 m | 20.1 m | 123.1 m | 4.4 m | 19.4 m | 34.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.22 ≈ | -0.07 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.75 ≈ | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Operating cash flow | 114.7 m | 2.6 m | 18.5 m ≈ | 86.6 m ≈ | 128.5 m | -120.8 m | 186.6 m ≈ | 102.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 3.7 m | 14.4 m | 12.5 m ≈ | 18.2 m ≈ | 25.4 m | 9.4 m | 12.1 m ≈ | 9.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 5.6 m | 19.2 m | 3.7 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 23.4 m | 14.5 m | 21.1 m ≈ | 20.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 27 percentile of its own 11-quarter history (min 12.0, median 63.6, max 1,400.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 124.7 m | 156.4 m | 221.6 m | 468.4 m | 577.1 m | 619.7 m | 668.2 m | 714.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | −19.8% | +25.4% | +41.7% | +111.4% | +23.2% | +7.4% | +7.8% | +6.9% |
| Net income | -61.8 m | -25.5 m | -53.4 m | 65.0 k | -130.3 m | -159.2 m | 22.8 m | 144.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −200,596.9% | unavailable | unavailable | +534.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -0.48 | -0.55 | 0.00 | -0.98 | -1.17 | 0.16 | 0.95 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +493.8% |
| net % | -49.6% | -16.3% | -24.1% | 0.0% | -22.6% | -25.7% | 3.4% | 20.3% |
| Free cash flow | -34.1 m | 20.6 m | -26.4 m | 108.9 m | 161.7 m | 187.6 m | 202.4 m | 165.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 553.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 556.1 m USD
- Net debt
- 2.8 m USD
- Equity
- 922.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 3.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.60x
- Current ratio
- 1.02x
- ROE
- 17.1%
- ROA
- 4.8%
- FCF margin
- 23.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 221.6 m | 468.4 m | 577.1 m | 619.7 m | 668.2 m | 714.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 77.7 m | 201.7 m | 307.2 m | 409.9 m | 258.8 m | 266.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 143.9 m ≈ | 266.8 m ≈ | 269.9 m ≈ | 209.8 m ≈ | 409.3 m ≈ | 447.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 51.5 m | 74.4 m | 93.8 m | 94.3 m | 95.2 m | 84.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -54.2 m | -81.1 m | -112.8 m | -155.0 m | 51.1 m | 97.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 49.2 m | 146.9 m | 216.1 m | 240.8 m | 58.5 m | 53.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -5.0 m ≈ | 65.8 m ≈ | 103.3 m ≈ | 85.8 m ≈ | 109.6 m ≈ | 151.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 29.3 m | 32.4 m | 27.0 m | 18.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -52.7 m | -95.0 m | -135.6 m | -157.5 m | 26.5 m | 70.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 693.0 k | -95.1 m | -5.3 m | 1.6 m | 3.7 m | -74.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -53.4 m | 65.0 k | -130.3 m | -159.2 m | 22.8 m | 144.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.55 | 0.00 | -0.98 | -1.17 | 0.16 | 0.95 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 96.7 m | 136.3 m | 132.9 m | 136.6 m | 146.8 m | 153.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 117.7 m | 230.4 m | 326.3 m | 326.2 m | 483.2 m | 553.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 471.7 m | 927.8 m | 976.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 607.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 23.7 m | 34.1 m | 45.0 m | 47.4 m | 68.7 m | 108.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 158.1 m | 969.9 m | 978.2 m | 978.2 m | 978.2 m | 983.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 89.9 m | 426.6 m | 253.5 m | 51.0 m | 21.3 m | 12.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 939.0 m | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 509.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 3.6 m | 3.6 m | 3.6 m | 3.6 m | 208.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 720.0 m | 722.8 m | 533.0 m | 550.1 m | 347.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 522.2 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 557.3 m | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 381.6 m † | 880.8 m † | 791.3 m † | 701.7 m † | 768.2 m † | 922.4 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -12.1 m | 126.6 m | 192.6 m | 214.4 m | 235.2 m | 236.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 14.3 m | 17.7 m | 30.8 m | 26.8 m | 32.8 m | 70.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -26.4 m ≈ | 108.9 m ≈ | 161.7 m ≈ | 187.6 m ≈ | 202.4 m ≈ | 165.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 32.6 m | -691.0 m | -65.2 m | -37.4 m | -47.5 m | -92.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 7.4 m | 678.1 m | -30.2 m | -177.8 m | -28.9 m | -75.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 6.0 m | 15.7 m | 0 | 14.6 m | 46.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 60 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet42
- Valuation66
- Quality83
- Growth35
- Returns74
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.07 – 42.85 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)26.64 – 41.51 (Mid 32.34)WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 256.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -7.7%
- Peers: EV/Sales4.07 – 42.85 (Mid 7.50)16 companies used · median multiple 1.3x · quartiles 0.7x – 8.0xAPP, CDLX, DOCN, FDS, FLUT, GMM, GOOGL, NIQ, PPLI, RXT, RZLV, SIFY, TBLA, TEAD, WB, ZIP
- Peers: EV/EBITDA8.40 – 38.54 (Mid 20.88)9 companies used · median multiple 14.9x · quartiles 5.9x – 27.7xAPP, DOCN, FDS, FLUT, GMM, NIQ, TBLA, WB, ZIP
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 60/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 66.6% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 18.4% | 86 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 31.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.4% | 29 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 6.9% | 46 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.2x | 69 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 14 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 4.2x | 41 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.4% | 74 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet42/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth35/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns74/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation66/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
MAGNITE, INC. (MGNI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 714.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.9%; net margin 23.6%; ROE 20.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.
The estimated value range is 8.40–41.51 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 20.88 USD, the price of 22.79 USD leaves a potential of -8.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -9.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 60/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EBIT margin: 18.4%
- FCF margin: 31.3%
- FCF yield: 7.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 2.4%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 7.4%
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | 3,552.1 bn | 15.1 | 44.3% | 50.0% | +15.1% | −10% / +118% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | 90.0 bn | 18.3 | 210.1% | 65.9% | +70.0% | −55% / +625% |
| FLUTFlutter Entertainment plc | 14.2 bn | — | -14.3% | -7.1% | +16.6% | −61% / −48% |
| FDSFactset Research Systems Inc | 12.1 bn | 23.5 | 25.5% | 21.5% | +6.7% | +23% / −25% |
| DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 281.3 | 5.1% | 3.1% | +15.5% | +89% / +184% |
| SOGPSound Group Inc. | 8.8 bn | 350.3 | 70.4% | 7.1% | +59.4% | −21% / +265% |
| NIQNIQ Global Intelligence plc | 6.0 bn | — | -65.3% | -8.0% | +5.7% | +29% / unavailable |
| SIFYSify Technologies Ltd | 5.8 bn | — | -4.1% | -2.0% | +9.0% | +20% / +53% |
| MGNIMagnite, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 19.9 | 20.4% | 23.6% | +6.9% | +36% / +208% |
| DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | 2.1 bn | 34.0 | 5.8% | 8.2% | +13.9% | +29% / −59% |
| WBWeibo Corporation | 1.6 bn | 3.8 | 12.1% | 25.6% | +0.1% | −35% / −36% |
| DJTTrump Media & Technology Group Corp. | 1.2 bn | — | -78.9% | -28,867.7% | +1.8% | −61% / −74% |
| HSTMHealthstream Inc | 949.7 m | 45.4 | 6.0% | 6.6% | +4.3% | +29% / +30% |
| NXDRNextdoor Holdings, Inc | 934.4 m | — | -7.2% | -11.1% | +4.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| TBLATaboola.com Ltd. | 921.2 m | 7.0 | 14.3% | 6.8% | +8.3% | −33% / −21% |
| CEVACeva, Inc. | 788.9 m | — | -3.6% | -9.5% | +2.5% | +30% / +29% |
| RXTRackspace Technology, Inc. | 716.2 m | — | — | -5.9% | −1.9% | +165% / +123% |
| NEXNNexxen International Ltd. | 513.3 m | 22.2 | 5.0% | 6.9% | −0.2% | +41% / +151% |
| HUYAHUYA Inc. | 470.7 m | — | -1.9% | -1.7% | +11.6% | −27% / −38% |
| RZLVRezolve AI plc | 460.8 m | — | -98.7% | -216.7% | +2,224.2% | −55% / −87% |
| ZIPZiprecruiter, Inc. | 321.9 m | 12.9 | — | 6.2% | −5.3% | −5% / −66% |
| MFMindForge Inc. | 172.5 m | — | -167.2% | -222.9% | −49.9% | −83% / unavailable |
| GOAIEva Live Inc | 31.8 m | — | -58.5% | -39.3% | +82.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| HOLOMicroCloud Hologram Inc. | 27.2 m | — | -2.3% | -12.4% | +38.6% | −66% / −100% |
| TEADTeads Holding Co. | 27.0 m | — | -196.2% | -43.3% | +46.1% | −61% / −93% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MGNI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 15.27 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 26.96 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 40.57 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 15.68 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 31.08 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 51.21 Total return 125% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 16.11 Total return -29% · Per year -7% | 35.81 Total return 57% · Per year 9% | 64.64 Total return 184% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 7.77
- Net margin± 5.44
- Annual revenue growth± 4.35
- Annual dilution± 0.46
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Magnite is the world's largest independent sell-side advertising platform, with a focus on connected TV (CTV). The company automates the buying and selling of digital ad inventory and could benefit from advertising budgets moving from linear TV to streaming, as well as from the outcome of its lawsuit against Google. Second-quarter 2026 results showed revenue rising to 192.8 million USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company claims a leading independent position in CTV, backed by the SpringServe platform and relationships with broadcast publishers 13. Its omni-channel model has network effects and revenue tied to ad spend volume 1. Rising adjusted EBITDA margin points to operational discipline 3.
- Owning no media properties and offering no dedicated DSP gives it a neutral image toward clients 1. Bid data and traffic filtering tools help improve returns for buyers 1.
- The Streamr.ai acquisition extends CTV access to small and medium businesses through generative AI tools 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue concentration in a few large buyers means losing one major client could quickly affect results 1. Contracts are non-exclusive and do not guarantee minimum volumes 1.
- The desktop and mobile web segment keeps shrinking as a share of revenue, weighing on total growth 1. The gross-basis managed service model is losing importance 1.
- Larger competitors have superior financial and technical resources, limiting the company's ability to compete on price 1.
Opportunities
- If CTV keeps drawing budgets from linear TV, the segment could remain the main growth engine 13. Raising 2026 expectations suggests recent execution has been good 3.
- Remedies in the Google case could open the display market to rivals like Magnite if publishers gain more choice 1.
- Recently launched agentic products could become useful infrastructure for the future of digital advertising, according to management 3.
Threats
- Cuts in ad spending due to inflation or recession could slow the platform's growth 1.
- If CTV publishers prefer direct reserve deals, the average take rate could fall, hurting margins 1.
- Competitors that adopt the company's business model or use AI more effectively could reduce its product differentiation 1.
Risks
- Dependence on a few large buyershigh
Two buyers indirectly contributed a significant part of 2025 revenue. Their departure could cause a rapid revenue decline 1.
- Google litigationmedium
The company sued Google in September 2025. The outcome is uncertain, and Google has indicated it intends to appeal the initial decision 1.
- Contracts without volume commitmentsmedium
Clients can reduce or end business without penalty, making revenue vulnerable to sudden changes 1.
- Slow adoption of biddable auctions in CTVmedium
If CTV publishers adopt multi-buyer auctions too slowly, the take rate could remain under pressure 1.
- Macroeconomic pressuremedium
Inflation, tariffs and recession risk can reduce ad budgets and raise infrastructure costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If CTV growth holds near its recent pace, the segment could keep supporting company results 3.
- Raising full-year 2026 expectations could reflect solid operational execution and a rising margin 3.
- Remedies in the Google case could improve the company's access to display inventory if the court opens the market further 1.
What would break the thesis
- Concentration of revenue in a few large buyers could leave results exposed to changes in their behaviour 1.
- The DV+ segment remains nearly flat, and the decline of desktop and mobile web could slow total growth 13.
- If CTV publishers prefer direct reserve deals or rivals gain ground, the average take rate could fall 1.
What to watch
- CTV contribution ex-TAC against the quarterly guidanceQ3 2026
- Full-year 2026 total contribution ex-TAC guidance against the 13% to 14% growth rangenext 10-K
- Court decisions on remedies and appeal in the Google antitrust case2027
- Revenue concentration among the top two buyers in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Magnite, Inc. provides technology solutions that automate the purchase and sale of digital advertising inventory, serving publishers who monetize CTV channels, apps and websites, as well as agencies, agency trading desks and DSPs that buy ad space 1. Its platform processes trillions of ad requests per month, offering buyers an independent alternative to 'walled gardens' 1. The company reported 2025 revenue of 713,953 thousand USD, up 7% from 2024 1.
The business is split between the omni-channel SSP, covering CTV, mobile, desktop, video, display and audio, and the SpringServe CTV platform, launched in April 2025, which combines streaming SSP and ad server functions 1. Magnite owns no media properties of its own and offers no dedicated DSP, which it says avoids conflicts of interest between sell side and buy side 1. Revenue is generally a percentage of ad spend running through the platform, and client contracts are non-exclusive with no minimum volumes 1.
In the first half of 2026, Magnite reported on 5 August 2026 second-quarter revenue of 192.8 million USD, while contribution ex-TAC grew 17% to 189.6 million USD 3. The company also raised its full-year 2026 expectations, now calling for contribution ex-TAC growth of 13% to 14% 3.
Segments
CTV (SpringServe and ClearLine)
The CTV segment is the company's fastest-growing area, with contribution ex-TAC of 97.1 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, up 36% 3. The SpringServe platform gives publishers mediation, podding and dynamic ad insertion tools, while ClearLine lets buyers build curated deal packages 1.
Market context
Digital advertising spend keeps shifting toward digital channels, and CTV is drawing budgets that previously sat in linear TV 1. Programmatic CTV is dominated by reserve deals, but the company expects more inventory to move to biddable auctions with several buyers, which could favour Magnite 1. Macroeconomic pressure, inflation and tariffs could reduce ad budgets and slow growth 1.
Market sentiment also depends on the court ruling on Google, which in April 2025 found that Google had violated antitrust law in the display ad server and ad exchange markets 1. If remedies create a more level playing field, Magnite could capture a larger share of display inventory, though the company acknowledges that the timing and form of remedies remain uncertain 1.
Trends
- CTV growth and budgets moving from linear TVtailwind
CTV adoption is accelerating, and the largest streaming platforms have moved to ad-supported models, increasing the inventory available 1. If the budget shift continues, CTV could remain the company's main growth driver 1.
- Shift toward biddable auctions with several buyersmixed
If CTV publishers open more inventory to biddable auctions, the take rate could rise, since these transactions need a higher level of service 1. Meanwhile, a growing share of direct reserve deals could pull the average take rate down 1.
- Phase-out of third-party cookiesmixed
Restrictions on third-party cookies have raised the importance of first-party identity, and Magnite has invested in the Magnite Curator Marketplace and audience solutions 1. The change could favour companies with direct consumer relationships, but it requires costly technology adaptation 1.
Competitive position
Magnite operates in a highly competitive market, and some rivals have greater financial, technical and marketing resources than the company 1. Competition comes both from platforms that are also buyers and sellers and from sellers that connect directly with buyers 1.
Consolidation in the ad technology industry could create stronger players and reduce the number of large buyers and sellers, adding pressure on prices 1. The company believes it could gain market share if remedies against Google increase publisher choice 1.
- Google (ad exchange and ad server)GOOGL
Main rival in display ad exchange, whose ad server the company says is used by most open-web publishers 1.
- Amazon (header bidding solutions)AMZN
Offers header bidding solutions integrated with display, which Magnite treats as a competing route to publisher impressions 1.
- DSP demand platforms and large agencies
Some buyers have direct relationships with sellers or can redirect spend to competitors, threatening transaction volume 1.
- Sellers connecting directly with buyers
Publishers may build their own technology and sell inventory directly without intermediaries such as Magnite 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Magnite Jumps 5% as Craig-Hallum Lifts Target to $32 on Google Auction Remedies; PubMatic Rises 6%, Trade Desk Barely BudgesYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Advertising Leader Magnite Touches New Buy Point, But Reverses LowerYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Trade Desk Rises 5% on Kokai Zuma Agentic AI Launch, AppLovin and Magnite Barely BudgeYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- A Magnite Director Sells Nearly 50,000 Shares Worth $1.2 Million Amid a Rising Stock PriceYahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Magnite Director Paul Caine Sells 7,500 Shares for $187,500Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Proxy statement21 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Magnite, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Magnite, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Magnite, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.