olivLaw · US equity research
OGE Energy Corp. OGE
Electric Services · SIC 4911 · Vertical: Electric Services (SIC 4911)
OGE Energy is the holding company for OG&E, the largest electric company in Oklahoma, serving Oklahoma and western Arkansas. It targets steady earnings-per-share growth and grid investment as electricity demand rises. Its 2026 guidance was left unchanged after the second quarter.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) stock was 50.63 USD (+3.10% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.4 bn USD, P/E 22.5 on diluted EPS of 2.25 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.35%, beta 0.21, 52-week range 42.16–50.63 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2026): revenue of 752.6 m USD (+0.7% YoY), net income of 50.2 m USD (−19.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 45.70 – 50.63
- in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 10.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 46.76 / 47.24
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.98 / 0.78
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.6% | −2.0% | +14.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +7.7% | −2.2% | +9.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.1% | +4.3% | +1.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +18.6% | +10.6% | +8.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +14.3% | +10.5% | +3.9 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | +43.6% | +73.7% | −30.0 pp | +40.4% |
| 5 years | +46.3% | +61.7% | −15.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 662.6 m | 965.4 m | 760.5 m | 747.7 m | 741.6 m | 1.0 bn | 725.8 m | 752.6 m |
| Cost of revenue | 193.9 m | 350.1 m | 300.2 m | 324.0 m | 261.1 m | 388.5 m | 286.3 m | 336.7 m |
| Operating income | 175.9 m | 313.2 m | 182.2 m | 133.3 m | 186.6 m | 341.3 m | 138.2 m | 113.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 135.5 m | 144.0 m | 130.8 m | 137.4 m | 140.6 m | 146.7 m | 135.1 m | 136.4 m |
| Interest expense | 64.9 m | 64.2 m | 65.2 m | 67.3 m | 72.2 m | 69.6 m | 61.2 m | 59.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 121.5 m | 259.7 m | 119.2 m | 72.9 m | 129.5 m | 276.8 m | 81.3 m | 59.4 m |
| Income tax | 19.2 m | 41.0 m | 17.3 m | 10.2 m | 22.0 m | 45.5 m | 12.1 m | 9.2 m |
| Net income | 102.3 m | 218.7 m | 101.9 m | 62.7 m | 107.5 m | 231.3 m | 69.2 m | 50.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.51 | 1.09 | 0.51 ≈ | 0.31 | 0.53 | 1.14 | 0.34 ≈ | 0.24 |
| Operating cash flow | 253.1 m ≈ | 347.1 m ≈ | 129.6 m | 15.9 m | 338.6 m ≈ | 397.8 m ≈ | 384.8 m | 175.5 m |
| Capex | 323.3 m | 244.1 m | 296.6 m | 249.5 m | 273.7 m | 229.5 m | 301.7 m | 266.8 m |
| Dividends paid | 84.0 m ≈ | 84.0 m ≈ | 84.6 m | 86.6 m | 84.9 m ≈ | 84.8 m ≈ | 85.6 m | 89.1 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 7.8, median 17.7, max 21.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +0.4% | −1.7% | −4.9% | +72.2% | −7.6% | −20.8% | +11.6% | +9.2% |
| Net income | 425.5 m | 433.6 m | -173.7 m | 737.3 m | 665.7 m | 416.8 m | 441.5 m | 470.7 m |
| Net income YoY | −31.3% | +1.9% | −140.1% | unavailable | −9.7% | −37.4% | +5.9% | +6.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.12 | 2.16 | -0.87 | 3.68 | 3.32 | 2.07 | 2.19 | 2.32 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −31.6% | +1.9% | −140.3% | unavailable | −9.8% | −37.7% | +5.8% | +5.9% |
| net % | 18.7% | 19.4% | -8.2% | 20.2% | 19.7% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 14.4% |
| Free cash flow | 377.5 m | 46.0 m | 62.3 m | -1.0 bn | -98.5 m | 54.1 m | -278.1 m | 82.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 200.0 k USD
- Financial debt
- 5.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 5.7 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 14.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.14x
- Current ratio
- 0.78x
- ROE
- 9.8%
- ROA
- 3.4%
- FCF margin
- 2.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 644.6 m | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 911.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | — | 139.3 m | 135.5 m | 148.3 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2024verified |
| Operating income | 522.2 m | 544.2 m | 649.5 m | 650.2 m | 745.3 m | 799.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 391.3 m | 416.0 m | 460.9 m | 506.6 m | 539.5 m | 559.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 913.5 m ≈ | 960.2 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 158.5 m | 158.3 m | 166.3 m | 221.4 m | 254.5 m | 270.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -301.1 m | 878.5 m | 789.3 m | 473.0 m | 520.6 m | 560.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -127.4 m | 141.2 m | 123.6 m | 56.2 m | 79.1 m | 89.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -173.7 m | 737.3 m | 665.7 m | 416.8 m | 441.5 m | 470.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.87 | 3.68 | 3.32 | 2.07 | 2.19 | 2.32 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 200.1 m | 200.3 m | 200.8 m | 200.9 m | 201.3 m | 202.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.58 | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.69 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 m | 0 | 88.1 m | 200.0 k | 600.0 k | 200.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 157.8 m | 162.3 m | 250.1 m | 208.8 m | 240.6 m | 347.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 36.5 m | 40.6 m | 108.8 m | 158.5 m | 148.3 m | 112.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 428.5 m | 613.6 m | 1.3 bn | 771.5 m | 895.1 m | 857.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 9.4 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 11.3 bn | 12.1 bn | 12.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 10.7 bn | 12.6 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.8 bn | 13.7 bn | 14.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 251.5 m | 274.0 m | 448.9 m | 276.4 m | 305.7 m | 350.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 95.0 m | 486.9 m | 0 | 499.2 m | 469.3 m | 292.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 697.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.1 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 200.0 m | 200.2 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2022verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 712.8 m | -229.9 m | 952.4 m | 1.2 bn | 812.8 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 650.5 m | 778.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 62.3 m ≈ | -1.0 bn ≈ | -98.5 m ≈ | 54.1 m ≈ | -278.1 m ≈ | 82.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -654.9 m | -832.5 m | -96.4 m | -1.3 bn | -1.2 bn | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -56.8 m | 1.1 bn | -767.9 m | -48.1 m | 348.8 m | -10.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 314.9 m | 324.9 m | 329.3 m | 333.2 m | 338.5 m | 341.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 47 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 10.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet44
- Growth4
- Quality71
- Returns61
- Valuation53
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.13 – 59.15 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)2.13 – 24.49 (Mid 10.14)WACC 7.8% · starting FCFF 445.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 32.4%
- Dividend discount (DDM)22.24 – 29.91 (Mid 25.51)
- Peers: EV/EBITDA32.21 – 59.15 (Mid 50.63)19 companies used · median multiple 12.2x · quartiles 9.3x – 13.5xAEP, AQN, BKH, CEG, CNP, CWEN, D, EIX, ELLO, ES, ETR, HE, NEE, NRG, POR, SO, SPRU, TXNM, VST
- Peers: P/E46.13 – 57.71 (Mid 51.83)15 companies used · median multiple 23.0x · quartiles 20.5x – 25.7xAEP, AQN, BKH, CEG, CNP, D, ES, ETR, FE, NEE, NRG, POR, PPL, SO, VST
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 47/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.1% | 61 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.0% | 81 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.2% | 8 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -11.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.4x | 62 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 42 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 22.5x | 54 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.2x | 52 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 3.4% | 62 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 75.4% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet44/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth4/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Returns61/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation53/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
OGE ENERGY CORP. (OGE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.2%; net margin 14.0%; ROE 9.6%; net debt/EBITDA 4.4x.
The estimated value range is 27.22–43.81 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 38.07 USD, the price of 50.63 USD leaves a potential of -24.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -33.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 14.0%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -11.3%
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Electric Services (SIC 4911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEENextera Energy Inc | 175.9 bn | 21.4 | 15.6% | 31.5% | +9.8% | −2% / +44% |
| SOSouthern Co | 105.7 bn | 24.0 | 11.3% | 14.5% | +10.6% | +3% / +32% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | 93.3 bn | 25.7 | 15.3% | 11.1% | +8.3% | −28% / +118% |
| PAMPampa Energy Inc. | 88.2 bn | 141.0 | 21.8% | 33.0% | +8.3% | −28% / +38% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | 70.7 bn | 19.0 | 12.8% | 16.9% | +10.9% | +5% / +63% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc | 58.7 bn | 19.8 | 10.5% | 16.9% | +14.2% | +6% / +47% |
| ETREntergy Corp | 49.9 bn | 27.7 | 11.1% | 13.6% | +9.0% | +12% / +115% |
| VSTVistra Operations Company LLC | 46.9 bn | 23.0 | 43.1% | 11.6% | +3.0% | −22% / +294% |
| CNPCenterpoint Energy Inc | 27.8 bn | 26.1 | 9.6% | 11.4% | +8.3% | +6% / +50% |
| FEFirstenergy Corp | 27.3 bn | 25.7 | 8.4% | 6.9% | +12.0% | −1% / +28% |
| PPLPPL Corp | 26.9 bn | 21.8 | 8.3% | 13.1% | +6.9% | −3% / +37% |
| ESEversource Energy | 26.0 bn | 17.9 | 9.1% | 10.4% | +13.8% | +3% / +16% |
| EIXEdison International | 22.9 bn | 6.3 | 20.8% | 19.6% | +9.8% | +1% / −11% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc | 20.2 bn | 24.9 | 23.8% | 2.6% | +9.2% | −43% / +101% |
| TLNTalen Energy Corporation | 15.5 bn | — | -16.7% | -6.4% | +22.0% | −9% / +523% |
| OGEOge Energy Corp. | 10.4 bn | 22.5 | 9.6% | 14.0% | +9.2% | +14% / +44% |
| BEPBrookfield Renewable Partners L.P. | 8.5 bn | — | -1.9% | -1.1% | +9.0% | +8% / +25% |
| CWENClearway Energy, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 72.6 | 1.8% | 6.4% | +4.2% | −2% / +43% |
| TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc. | 6.5 bn | 41.1 | 5.5% | 7.5% | +9.9% | +0% / +41% |
| BKHBlack Hills Corporation | 6.4 bn | 21.3 | 7.9% | 13.0% | +8.6% | +14% / +63% |
| ORAOrmat Technologies, Inc. | 5.8 bn | 46.3 | 5.0% | 10.7% | +12.5% | −16% / +40% |
| PORPortland General Electric Company | 5.5 bn | 19.7 | 6.6% | 7.7% | +4.0% | −9% / +12% |
| BEPCBrookfield Renewable Corporation | 5.4 bn | — | -501.4% | -62.9% | −10.0% | −24% / +19% |
| OKLOOklo Inc. | 4.1 bn | — | -7.7% | — | unavailable | −76% / +114% |
| AQNAlgonquin Power & Utilities Corp. | 3.4 bn | 25.6 | 3.9% | 7.4% | +4.9% | −8% / −8% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OGE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 27.86 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 49.40 Total return 1% · Per year 1% | 74.60 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 24.05 Total return -46% · Per year -18% | 48.27 Total return 5% · Per year 2% | 80.45 Total return 71% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 20.77 Total return -48% · Per year -12% | 47.16 Total return 9% · Per year 2% | 86.76 Total return 93% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 12.07
- Net margin± 8.45
- Annual revenue growth± 7.33
- Annual dilution± 0.71
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
OGE Energy is the holding company for OG&E, the largest electric company in Oklahoma, serving Oklahoma and western Arkansas. It targets steady earnings-per-share growth and grid investment as electricity demand rises. Its 2026 guidance was left unchanged after the second quarter.
SWOT
Strengths
- Regulated monopoly position in its service territory, with predictable revenues and cost recovery through approved tariffs 1.
- Clear financial guidance for 2026, reaffirmed after the second quarter, with earnings per diluted share in the 2.38 to 2.48 USD range 2.
- Access to regulated capital and investment-grade credit ratings supports grid expansion plans 1.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on natural gas and coal exposes the company to price swings it does not fully control 1.
- Results are strongly seasonal, with profit concentrated in summer quarters, which makes weaker quarters more vulnerable 1.
- The holding segment records steady losses, and interest costs have risen in recent quarters 2.
Opportunities
Risks
- Recovery of costs through tariffshigh
If regulators do not approve tariff increases on time or in full, large investments could remain unrecovered 1.
- Environmental and compliance costshigh
Emissions rules could require large expenditures or early retirement of assets 1.
- Changes to SPP market rulesmedium
Changes in regulation or transmission cost allocation could affect revenues and expenses 1.
- Fuel cost exposuremedium
Higher natural gas or coal prices could create temporary under-recoveries before adjustments are approved 1.
- Access to financinglow
Market conditions for borrowing could become more expensive, raising interest costs 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Load growth and a growing regulated asset base could support earnings per share in line with long-term targets 1.
- Oklahoma and Arkansas laws that speed up investment recovery could reduce the risk of delayed revenue 1.
- The 2026 guidance was left unchanged after the second quarter, which could indicate operating stability 2.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Updates to 2026 guidance and third-quarter resultsQ3 2026
- OCC decision on new tariffs and recovery of investments2026
- Outcome of the litigation over EPA emissions rules2026
- Next annual report (10-K) with updated long-term growth targetsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
OGE Energy is a holding company whose primary investment is OG&E, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric energy in Oklahoma and western Arkansas 1. OG&E, incorporated in 1902, serves approximately 913,000 customers across a franchised service territory 1. Its rates are regulated by the OCC, APSC and FERC, and the company exited its former midstream business in 2022 1.
Segments
Electric company (OG&E)
The electric segment drives nearly all of the group's earnings, with OG&E operating revenues of about 3,260.1 million USD in 2025 1. The generation mix is natural gas 57%, coal 34% and renewables 9% 1. Results are seasonal, with most earnings in the third quarter due to air conditioning demand 1.
Market context
OG&E operates in a region where electricity demand grew in 2025 over 2024, and SPP rules call for rising capacity requirements 1. Direct competition is limited by the regulated monopoly structure, but pressure comes from municipal systems, cooperatives and distributed generation 1.
Revenue depends on the recovery of capital costs under regulated tariffs in Oklahoma and Arkansas, and load growth underpins the company's forecasts 2. Changes in energy policy and SPP market rules could quickly alter demand and capacity costs.
Trends
- Rising electricity demandtailwind
Demand in Oklahoma is growing, supported by new commercial customers and economic development, which supports growth of the regulated asset base 1.
- Investment-friendly legislationtailwind
Oklahoma SB 998 and Arkansas Act 373 allow earlier recovery of investments in natural gas and transmission, which could shorten the lag in cost recovery 1.
- Emissions pressureheadwind
EPA rules on greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fired plants remain under judicial review and could raise compliance costs 1.
- Fuel costsmixed
Higher natural gas prices raised average energy costs, but fuel adjustment clauses limit the direct profit impact if recovery is approved on time 1.
Competitive position
OG&E faces competition from government-owned systems, municipal systems, rural cooperatives and, in some respects, other private utilities, power marketers and cogenerators 1. Oklahoma law forbids granting an exclusive franchise, which opens the door to competition in principle 1.
Indirect competition comes from other energy forms and technologies such as fuel cells, microturbines and photovoltaic cells, which could lower costs for customers 1. The ability to keep costs low and operations reliable remains a key competitive factor 1.
- Municipal systems and rural cooperatives
Local providers that compete with OG&E for customers in Oklahoma and Arkansas, per the annual report 1.
- Other private utilities
Regional providers that may partly compete with OG&E in its service area, per the annual report 1.
- Power marketers
Companies that buy and sell energy and could enter the market, per the source 1.
- Cogenerators and distributed producers
Local producers that could reduce grid demand through their own technologies, per the source 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report28 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report08 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report03 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report15 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Shareholder vote · Other events
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / OGE Energy Corp. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / OGE Energy Corp. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / OGE Energy Corp. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.