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olivLaw · US equity research

Tejon Ranch Co. TRC

Real Estate · SIC 6500 · Vertical: Real Estate (SIC 6500)

16.28USD−0.12% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) is a California real estate development and agribusiness company anchored by Tejon Ranch Commerce Center, covering about 270,000 acres with a fully leased industrial portfolio. It is expanding into multifamily rental housing, but revenue still depends on land sales and on economic and regulatory cycles.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) stock was 16.28 USD (−0.12% on the day), with market capitalisation 439.9 m USD, P/E 71.3 on diluted EPS of 0.23 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.33, 52-week range 15.66–20.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 14.3 m USD (+71.7% YoY), net income of 2.6 m USD, diluted EPS 0.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
439.9 m USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
71.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.23 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.40%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.33
Volatility (1y) 21%
52-week range
15.6620.48

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
48.4
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
15.99 – 16.72
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.39 · band width 4.4%
SMA 50 / 200
16.27 / 17.74
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.01 / 0.01
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+0.6%−1.1%+1.7 pp—
3 months−1.0%−0.5%−0.6 pp—
6 months−17.4%+4.4%−21.8 pp—
Year to date+3.2%+12.3%−9.1 pp—
1 year+4.5%+13.5%−9.1 pp−12.2%
3 years−0.3%+76.4%−76.7 pp−5.4%
5 years−20.0%+63.7%−83.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−22.5%
07 May 2026 → 26 Aug 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−32.4%
11 Nov 2021 → 30 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
−4.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
14.3 m USD
+71.7% YoY
Net income
2.6 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.10
unavailable YoY
net / operating
18.5% / 2.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue10.9 m17.9 m8.2 m8.3 m12.0 m21.1 m9.5 m14.3 m
Gross profit2.5 m7.7 m1.2 m3.5 m3.4 m6.5 m2.0 m6.8 m
Operating income-3.8 m2.1 m-4.2 m-4.1 m-2.0 m2.3 m-1.1 m348.0 k
Depreciation & amortisation1.2 m1.7 m1.0 m1.1 m1.7 m2.2 m1.5 m1.4 m
Pre-tax income-4.0 k5.7 m-2.7 m-1.3 m699.0 k4.5 m209.0 k3.5 m
Income tax1.8 m1.3 m-1.3 m435.0 k-972.0 k2.9 m59.0 k843.0 k
Net income-1.8 m4.5 m-1.5 m-1.7 m1.7 m1.6 m151.0 k2.6 m
Diluted EPS-0.070.17 ≈-0.05-0.060.060.06 ≈0.010.10
Operating cash flow2.1 m ≈13.3 m-1.3 m-381.0 k ≈-2.4 m ≈10.2 m3.3 m1.3 m ≈
Capex18.9 m ≈16.2 m17.5 m19.6 m ≈12.2 m ≈———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 32 percentile of its own 31-quarter history (min 22.6, median 133.3, max 1,926.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue45.6 m49.5 m37.8 munavailable79.2 m44.7 m41.9 m49.6 m
Revenue YoY+29.4%+8.6%−23.6%unavailableunavailable−43.5%−6.4%+18.4%
Net income4.3 m10.6 m-740.0 k5.3 m15.8 m3.3 m2.7 m75.0 k
Net income YoYunavailable+148.6%−107.0%unavailable+195.6%−79.3%−17.6%−97.2%
Diluted EPS0.160.40-0.030.200.590.120.100.00
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+150.0%−107.5%unavailable+195.0%−79.7%−16.7%−100.0%
net %9.3%21.4%-2.0%unavailable20.0%7.3%6.4%0.2%
Free cash flow-8.2 m-9.2 m-6.8 m-18.1 m-14.1 m-7.7 m-42.9 munavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
9.5 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
490.6 m USD
Total assets
630.5 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
4.14x
ROE
0.0%
ROA
0.0%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
44.7 m
2024
41.9 m
2025
49.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
13.0 m
2024
12.8 m
2025
14.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-3.7 m
2024
-9.2 m
2025
-8.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
4.8 m
2024
4.9 m
2025
6.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.1 m ≈
2024
-4.3 m ≈
2025
-1.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
5.6 m
2024
3.7 m
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
2.3 m
2024
976.0 k
2025
1.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
3.3 m
2024
2.7 m
2025
75.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.12
2024
0.10
2025
0.00

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
26.7 m
2024
26.8 m
2025
26.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
31.9 m
2024
39.3 m
2025
9.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
8.4 m
2024
7.9 m
2025
9.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
3.5 m
2024
4.0 m
2025
3.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
79.8 m
2024
69.4 m
2025
39.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
54.0 m
2024
56.4 m
2025
59.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
20.4 m
2024
19.0 m
2025
17.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
577.5 m
2024
608.0 m
2025
630.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
6.5 m
2024
9.1 m
2025
5.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2024verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2024verified

Current liabilities
2023
11.6 m
2024
16.8 m
2025
9.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
94.4 m
2024
119.0 m
2025
139.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
483.1 m
2024
489.0 m
2025
490.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
13.7 m
2024
14.3 m
2025
6.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
21.3 m
2024
57.2 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
-7.7 m ≈
2024
-42.9 m ≈
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-14.0 m
2024
-25.7 m
2025
-62.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-6.9 m
2024
18.8 m
2025
26.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
18.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
-97.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-83.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-100.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
32.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-93.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
12.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
65.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
Free cash flow
-53.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
199.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
439.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
72.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
71.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

9 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 52.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

16.28 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 439.9 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
439.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
71.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
18.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2182derived 149

Score by group

52% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
8.78
USD per share
Mid
15.00
USD per share
High
29.27
USD per share
Price: 16.28 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -7.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -8.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.78 – 29.27 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • Net asset value (NAV)unavailable · input data missing
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
  • Peers: P/B8.78 – 29.27 (Mid 15.00)
    19 companies used · median multiple 0.8x · quartiles 0.5x – 1.7x
    AEI, AHRT, AIRE, BEEP, CBRE, CHCI, CIGI, CMTG, CURB, CWK, FOR, FRPH, GTY, HPP, IIPR, LPA, OPI, TRNO, UE
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Real Estate (SIC 6500)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 52.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROE · Quality1.3%45 (vs peers)13%
EBITDA margin · Quality11.0%0 (on a fixed band)17%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-14.5%0 (on a fixed band)17%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/B · Valuation0.9x52 (vs peers)38%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation71.3x20 (vs peers)17%
Dividend yield · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Quality19/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation42/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TEJON RANCH CO. (TRC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 49.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 18.4%; net margin 10.6%; ROE 1.3%.

The estimated value range is 8.78–29.27 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 15.00 USD, the price of 16.28 USD leaves a potential of -7.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -8.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 52.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • EBITDA margin: 11.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -14.5%
  • P/E (TTM): 71.3x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).

Versus the vertical median

Real Estate (SIC 6500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 31 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
71.3x
vertical median 24.6x
above median (+190.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 13.3x
P/S
7.7x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+261.0%)
P/B
0.9x
vertical median 1.0x
below median (−5.8%)
ROE
1.3%
vertical median 1.3%
at median
Net margin
10.6%
vertical median 2.7%
above median (+289.3%)
EBIT margin
-0.9%
vertical median 6.4%
below median (−114.1%)
Revenue YoY
18.4%
vertical median 7.5%
above median (+145.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.6x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 3.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CBRECbre Group, Inc.40.7 bn30.216.1%3.1%+13.4%−13% / +79%
VTMXVesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.32.7 bn131.89.1%85.4%+12.2%+19% / −2%
TRNOTerreno Realty Corporation7.5 bn20.38.3%68.1%+24.5%+8% / +19%
FSVFirstService Corporation7.1 bn49.014.9%3.5%+5.4%−1% / −1%
CIGIColliers International Group Inc.4.0 bn48.815.7%4.0%+15.3%−32% / −5%
CURBCurbline Properties Corp.3.7 bn125.41.3%11.2%+51.3%+26% / unavailable
CWKCushman & Wakefield Ltd.3.5 bn50.53.4%0.6%+8.9%−11% / +82%
UEUrban Edge Properties2.7 bn24.67.9%22.2%+6.1%+10% / +26%
GTYGetty Realty Corp.1.9 bn17.48.9%42.4%+9.0%+1% / −2%
IIPRInnovative Industrial Properties, Inc.1.6 bn12.57.6%53.2%−13.8%+14% / −31%
FORForestar Group Inc.1.3 bn7.59.6%9.9%+10.1%−2% / −18%
HPPHudson Pacific Properties, Inc.572.8 m—-19.8%-69.1%−1.3%−24% / −74%
DUOFangdd Network Group Ltd.548.5 m—-17.9%-23.9%+9.2%−68% / −96%
AHRTAh Realty Trust, Inc.500.6 m—-6.7%-18.2%+4.1%+3% / −38%
TRCTejon Ranch Co.439.9 m71.31.3%10.6%+18.4%+4% / −0%
FRPHFrp Holdings, Inc.360.7 m2,041,655.00.0%0.2%+2.6%−19% / −32%
MLPMaui Land & Pineapple Co Inc289.5 m—-16.1%-28.6%+68.2%−8% / −2%
OPIOffice Properties Income Trust285.6 m—-40.5%-73.0%−11.8%unavailable / unavailable
CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc.261.0 m—-36.5%-391.9%−24.4%−44% / −85%
CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.165.7 m6.736.4%32.2%+22.6%+46% / +352%
BEEPMobile Infrastructure Corporation100.4 m—-16.1%-67.2%−5.2%−22% / −54%
LPALogistic Properties of the Americas78.1 m7.54.3%20.9%+14.3%−27% / unavailable
OZBelpointe PREP, LLC47.6 m——-212.1%+243.4%−41% / −50%
AEIAlset Inc.21.1 m—-43.4%-951.4%−78.8%−80% / −54%
CWDCalibercos Inc.4.7 m——-117.3%−60.7%−80% / −98%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TRC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
8.52
Total return -48% · Per year -48%
15.14
Total return -7% · Per year -7%
22.91
Total return 41% · Per year 41%
3 years
6.77
Total return -58% · Per year -25%
13.67
Total return -16% · Per year -6%
22.91
Total return 41% · Per year 12%
5 years
5.37
Total return -67% · Per year -20%
12.33
Total return -24% · Per year -5%
22.91
Total return 41% · Per year 7%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 3.42
  • Net margin± 2.39
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.16
  • Annual dilution± 0.20

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) is a California real estate development and agribusiness company anchored by Tejon Ranch Commerce Center, covering about 270,000 acres with a fully leased industrial portfolio. It is expanding into multifamily rental housing, but revenue still depends on land sales and on economic and regulatory cycles. 12

SWOT

Strengths

  • Contiguous land and a position along a heavily traveled freeway give a strategic advantage that is hard to replicate 1.
  • The TRCC industrial portfolio is fully leased, with nationally recognized tenants 12.
  • Diversification into farming, mineral resources and royalties adds complementary recurring income 13.

Weaknesses

  • Activity is geographically concentrated in California, exposing the company to the state's economic and regulatory conditions 1.
  • Revenue is volatile, depending on occasional land sales and water sales 13.
  • Corporate expenses rose in 2025, mainly due to defense against shareholder activism, which reduced profit 1.

Opportunities

  • Stabilization of Terra Vista and the opening of a new casino could lift traffic and sales in the commercial area 3.
  • Re-entitlement of Centennial could unlock a major residential portfolio if the process advances 2.
  • New industrial joint ventures could expand capacity without absorbing all of the company's capital 3.

Threats

  • Third-party litigation and regulatory processes can delay or block project development 1.
  • High interest rates and tighter credit could reduce demand for land and commercial space 1.
  • Climate risks, including wildfire and drought, can affect insurance costs, crops and property values 1.

Risks

  • Litigation and Centennial re-entitlementhigh

    The Centennial approvals were set aside, and re-entitlement could be challenged in court again, delaying the project 12.

  • Geographic concentrationmedium

    All developable land is in California, so an economic or regulatory change in the state could affect results directly 1.

  • Real estate cyclicalitymedium

    If the property market enters a downturn when projects reach development, sales could be postponed 1.

  • Reliance on land salesmedium

    Quarterly profit can swing widely if land or water sales do not occur in the expected period 23.

  • Tenant risklow

    Non-payment of rent or non-renewal of leases could reduce cash flow from affected properties 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If TRCC stays fully leased and Terra Vista reaches stabilization, recurring revenue could grow and lessen reliance on land sales 13.
  • Corporate cost control and higher adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter could support improved profitability 3.
  • A 270,000-acre landholding offers long-term development options if the residential projects obtain the necessary approvals 12.

What would break the thesis

  • Repeated litigation and the setting aside of Centennial approvals show that development can be delayed or blocked, which could affect growth plans 12.
  • Profit remains volatile and depends on occasional land and water sales, which makes results hard to predict 13.
  • Concentration in California and cost pressures from insurance and financing could limit demand over the medium term 1.

What to watch

  • Progress of Centennial re-entitlement and the RPDEIRlate 2026
  • Occupancy at Terra Vista at TejonQ3 2026
  • Delivery of industrial Building 1B at TRCCearly 2027
  • Almond and pistachio yields after harvestnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Tejon Ranch Co. is a diversified real estate development company whose main asset is Tejon Ranch Commerce Center (TRCC), a commercial and industrial park of 20 million square feet along Interstate 5 between the Los Angeles Basin and California's Central Valley 1. The company holds about 270,000 acres of contiguous land, on which it runs development, leasing, farming, mineral royalties and ranch operations 1. In 2025 it began reporting Multifamily as a separate segment, with the launch of Terra Vista at Tejon 1.

The platform has six reporting segments: commercial/industrial real estate, multifamily, resort/residential real estate, mineral resources, farming and ranch operations 1. The company also operates nine joint ventures that develop portions of its land, including those with TravelCenters of America, Majestic Realty and Rockefeller Development Group 1.

Over the long term the company holds entitlements for Mountain Village, Grapevine and Centennial, with more than 35,000 housing units in total, although Centennial is in re-entitlement after the 2019 approvals were set aside 12. The timing of residential development therefore remains uncertain and dependent on administrative and court processes 1.

Segments

Commercial/industrial real estate

This is the largest contributor to operating profit, with revenue from leases, land sales and a leased power plant 1. The TRCC industrial portfolio is fully leased, and the commercial portfolio was 95% leased at June 30, 2026 23.

Multifamily

The segment includes Terra Vista at Tejon, in lease-up, with leasing above 80% by mid-2026 3. Its revenue is still modest and its 2025 operating loss suggests stabilization is ongoing 1.

Farming and mineral resources

The company grows almonds, pistachios and wine grapes, and farm revenue depends on harvests and market prices 1. Mineral resources generate steady royalties, while occasional water sales can move quarterly results noticeably 3.

Market context

The Los Angeles industrial market is considered among the largest in the country, with high rents and low vacancy, which supports demand for TRCC space 1. Land values in the area have risen significantly in recent years, but the market remains sensitive to financing costs and California's economic conditions 1.

The residential market depends on occupancy, wildfire insurance costs and interest rates, factors that could influence demand for Centennial, Mountain Village and Grapevine 1. The timing of these projects also depends on local approvals and possible litigation 2.

Trends

  • Industrial growth in Los Angelestailwind

    Demand for logistics space in the Los Angeles area supports full occupancy at TRCC and interest in new buildings 1.

  • Residential lease-up at Terra Vistatailwind

    Stabilization at Terra Vista could produce steadier recurring revenue if occupancy keeps rising 23.

  • Financing costs and interest ratesheadwind

    High rates and tighter credit can reduce demand for land and slow industrial development 1.

  • Cyclical farm and water pricesmixed

    Crop revenue and water sales depend on prices and water allocations, which introduces volatility 23.

Competitive position

The company competes with other industrial areas in Northern, Central and Southern California for tenants and land buyers, as well as with other Interstate 5 and State Route 99 interchange locations 1. Its residential projects will compete with other housing options in Santa Clarita Valley, Lancaster, Palmdale and Bakersfield 1.

In the recreation and second-home segment, Mountain Village will compete with a broad range of projects, which could limit absorption 1. Intense competition may reduce sales and affect operating results 1.

  • Other Southern California industrial parks

    Compete for industrial tenants and land buyers across Northern, Central and Southern California 1.

  • Residential developers in Santa Clarita Valley, Lancaster and Palmdale

    Offer housing alternatives that could compete with Centennial and Grapevine once approved 1.

  • Fuel stops and travel centers along Interstate 5 and State Route 99

    Compete for commercial leasing opportunities at highway interchanges 1.

  • Recreation and second-home destinations in the region

    Compete for discretionary consumer spending relevant to Mountain Village 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Tejon Ranch Co. · 19 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Tejon Ranch Co. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Tejon Ranch Co. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.