olivLaw · US equity research
Wabash National Corporation WNC
Truck Trailers · SIC 3715 · Vertical: Transportation equipment (SIC 371x)
Wabash National is a U.S. maker of trailers and truck bodies that is expanding its parts, services and digital offerings for fleets. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales fell 9.1%, while the order backlog rose, a sign of a sector still under pressure from a freight recession.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Wabash National Corporation (WNC) stock was 11.58 USD (+1.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 471.8 m USD, dividend yield 2.76%, beta 1.26, 52-week range 6.77–14.31 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 476.4 m USD (+24.8% YoY), net income of -20.7 m USD (−151.9% YoY), diluted EPS -0.51 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.39 – 14.17
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 21.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.85 / 10.86
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.25 / -0.05
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −17.2% | −1.1% | −16.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.9% | −0.5% | −8.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +49.0% | +4.4% | +44.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +33.9% | +12.3% | +21.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +50.6% | +13.5% | +37.0 pp | −16.6% |
| 3 years | −46.7% | +76.4% | −123.1 pp | −14.6% |
| 5 years | −32.9% | +63.7% | −96.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 416.8 m | 380.9 m | 458.8 m | 381.6 m | 321.5 m | 303.2 m | 417.2 m | 476.4 m |
| Cost of revenue | 373.9 m | 361.9 m | 417.4 m | 365.9 m | 327.7 m | 313.8 m | 401.9 m | 461.5 m |
| Gross profit | 43.0 m | 19.0 m | 41.4 m | 15.7 m | -6.2 m | -10.6 m | 15.3 m | 14.9 m |
| Operating income | 3.6 m | 314.6 m | -4.8 m | 57.6 m | -59.9 m | -52.4 m | -25.3 m | -20.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 16.6 m | 15.0 m | 14.1 m | 14.6 m | 15.0 m | 15.0 m | 13.6 m | 13.6 m |
| Interest expense | 4.9 m | 5.0 m | 5.3 m | 5.4 m | 5.6 m | 6.2 m | 6.7 m | 7.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -2.0 m | 309.3 m | -12.3 m | 51.7 m | -65.5 m | -58.3 m | -31.5 m | -26.6 m |
| Income tax | -1.3 m | 78.1 m | -2.7 m | 11.6 m | -15.5 m | -13.0 m | -8.9 m | -6.2 m |
| Net income | -1.0 m | 230.9 m | -9.6 m | 40.0 m | -49.9 m | -45.2 m | -22.9 m | -20.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | 5.36 | -0.23 | 0.97 | -1.23 | -1.11 | -0.56 | -0.51 |
| Operating cash flow | 80.9 m | -272.0 k | -15.8 m ≈ | 85.2 m ≈ | -57.4 m | -33.7 m | 5.1 m ≈ | -37.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 21.3 m | 8.7 m | 6.2 m ≈ | 5.3 m ≈ | 4.5 m | 3.4 m | 2.1 m ≈ | 3.5 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 3.5 m | 3.9 m | 3.4 m ≈ | 3.3 m ≈ | 3.2 m | 3.5 m | 3.3 m ≈ | 3.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +28.3% | +2.3% | −36.1% | +21.7% | +38.8% | +1.4% | −23.3% | −20.8% |
| Net income | 69.4 m | 89.6 m | -97.4 m | 1.2 m | 112.3 m | 231.3 m | -284.1 m | 211.5 m |
| Net income YoY | −37.7% | +29.0% | −208.7% | unavailable | +9,544.2% | +106.0% | −222.8% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.19 | 1.62 | -1.84 | 0.02 | 2.25 | 4.81 | -6.40 | 5.07 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −33.1% | +36.1% | −213.6% | unavailable | +11,150.0% | +113.8% | −233.1% | unavailable |
| net % | 3.1% | 3.9% | -6.6% | 0.1% | 4.5% | 9.1% | -14.6% | 13.7% |
| Free cash flow | 78.5 m | 108.6 m | 104.0 m | -56.6 m | 67.0 m | 221.5 m | 45.1 m | -13.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 31.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 442.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 410.9 m USD
- Equity
- 367.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.21x
- Current ratio
- 1.39x
- ROE
- 76.0%
- ROA
- 16.4%
- FCF margin
- -0.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 159.8 m | 196.5 m | 322.7 m | 498.2 m | 265.1 m | 69.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 21.9 m | 13.6 m | 5.3 m | 7.5 m | 8.6 m | 5.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | — | 156.0 m | 186.2 m | 621.2 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2025verified |
| Operating income | -85.6 m | 33.5 m | 166.6 m | 311.9 m | -356.1 m | 307.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 48.0 m | 48.8 m | 47.0 m | 45.3 m | 57.0 m | 58.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -37.6 m ≈ | 82.4 m ≈ | 213.6 m ≈ | 357.3 m ≈ | -299.1 m ≈ | 366.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 24.2 m | 23.1 m | 20.5 m | 19.9 m | 19.8 m | 21.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -109.2 m | 1.3 m | 146.4 m | 294.7 m | -376.6 m | 283.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -11.8 m | 126.0 k | 33.7 m | 62.8 m | -93.5 m | 71.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -97.4 m | 1.2 m | 112.3 m | 231.3 m | -284.1 m | 211.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.84 | 0.02 | 2.25 | 4.81 | -6.40 | 5.07 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 52.9 m | 51.6 m | 49.9 m | 48.0 m | 44.4 m | 41.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 217.7 m | 71.8 m | 58.2 m | 179.3 m | 115.5 m | 31.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 101.3 m | 176.5 m | 255.6 m | 183.0 m | 143.9 m | 119.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 163.8 m | 237.6 m | 243.9 m | 267.6 m | 258.8 m | 181.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 545.8 m | 529.7 m | 592.6 m | 681.4 m | 594.5 m | 419.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 199.6 m | 188.4 m | 188.4 m | 188.4 m | 188.4 m | 191.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 166.9 m | 114.4 m | 99.2 m | 86.4 m | 74.4 m | 63.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 104.4 m | 174.0 m | 189.1 m | 156.6 m | 146.7 m | 145.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 448.0 m | 428.3 m | 395.8 m | 396.5 m | 397.1 m | 442.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 235.8 m | 289.3 m | 347.5 m | 352.2 m | 308.4 m | 302.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 756.6 m | 781.5 m | 805.4 m | 812.7 m | 1.2 bn | 802.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 404.9 m † | 325.5 m † | 397.6 m † | 549.5 m † | 188.8 m † | 367.4 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 124.1 m | -7.5 m | 124.1 m | 319.6 m | 117.3 m | 11.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 20.1 m | 49.1 m | 57.1 m | 98.1 m | 72.2 m | 24.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 104.0 m ≈ | -56.6 m ≈ | 67.0 m ≈ | 221.5 m ≈ | 45.1 m ≈ | -13.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.0 m | -27.1 m | -55.3 m | -106.0 m | -94.8 m | -92.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -44.0 m | -111.4 m | -82.3 m | -92.5 m | -86.3 m | -2.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 17.3 m | 16.4 m | 16.0 m | 15.9 m | 14.8 m | 13.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 471.8 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.21 – 5.66 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)4.21 – 5.66 (Mid 4.82)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -17.8% | 27 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | -9.1% | 36 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -14.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 31.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -6.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 48 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -29.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.8% | 40 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial40/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION (WNC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -20.8%; net margin -9.1%; ROE -40.2%.
The estimated value range is 4.21–5.66 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.82 USD, the price of 11.58 USD leaves a potential of -58.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -140.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 31.1%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -17.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -14.9%
- Interest coverage: -6.2x
- FCF yield: -29.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Transportation equipment (SIC 371x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | 1,522.6 bn | 424.6 | 3.8% | 3.1% | −2.9% | −10% / +60% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | 78.0 bn | 20.6 | 6.1% | 2.1% | −1.3% | +26% / +192% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | 55.9 bn | 20.2 | 13.7% | 9.5% | −15.5% | +1% / +16% |
| LILi Auto Inc. | 23.5 bn | 144.8 | 1.6% | 1.0% | −18.8% | −37% / −69% |
| RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc. | 20.5 bn | — | -55.0% | -45.9% | +8.4% | −17% / −16% |
| ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 17.4 | 29.7% | 11.1% | −6.7% | +36% / +125% |
| ALVAutoliv, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 15.1 | 24.8% | 5.6% | +4.1% | +7% / +21% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| OSKOshkosh Corporation | 8.7 bn | 17.5 | 11.0% | 4.6% | −2.9% | +12% / +47% |
| VFSVinFast Auto Ltd. | 7.8 bn | — | — | -175.5% | +54.7% | +2% / −61% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | 7.2 bn | 24.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | +17.1% | +3% / +71% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −11% |
| THOThor Industries, Inc. | 4.4 bn | 25.0 | 4.2% | 1.8% | +0.3% | −20% / −15% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PATKPatrick Industries Inc | 2.7 bn | 20.1 | 13.0% | 3.7% | +6.3% | −22% / +55% |
| LCIILci Industries | 2.5 bn | 12.1 | 15.0% | 5.2% | +10.2% | −8% / −4% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| LCIDLucid Group, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -571.4% | -249.2% | +67.6% | −75% / −92% |
| ADNTAdient plc | 1.3 bn | 28.5 | 2.7% | 0.3% | −1.0% | −12% / −47% |
| DCHDauch Corporation | 1.1 bn | — | -15.2% | -2.0% | −4.7% | −27% / −31% |
| SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 15.1 | 9.9% | 3.8% | +22.4% | +22% / +28% |
| WGOWinnebago Industries, Inc. | 969.7 m | 28.2 | 2.8% | 1.3% | −3.4% | −6% / −47% |
| AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc. | 661.5 m | — | — | -150.1% | +99.4% | −15% / +240% |
| WNCWabash National Corporation | 471.8 m | — | -40.2% | -9.1% | −20.8% | +51% / −47% |
| MPAAMotorcar Parts Of America, Inc. | 200.3 m | — | -1.6% | -0.5% | +4.3% | −20% / +10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WNC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Wabash National is a U.S. maker of trailers and truck bodies that is expanding its parts, services and digital offerings for fleets. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales fell 9.1% 3, while the order backlog rose, a sign of a sector still under pressure from a freight recession 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad product line, a balance sheet management describes as strong, and an extensive dealer and partner network across North America 1.
- The Parts & Services segment grew even while trailer output fell, offering a cushion against cyclicality 3.
- Digital integration and full ownership of Linq Venture Holdings could create more durable customer relationships 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a few large customers and on a limited number of raw material suppliers makes the company vulnerable to sudden changes 1.
- Gross margin in the trailer segment fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026, showing sensitivity to low volumes 23.
- Charges tied to a product liability matter weighed heavily on fiscal 2025 operating results 1.
Opportunities
- If the freight market recovers, fleet replacement could lift demand for trailers and truck bodies 3.
- Anti-dumping measures against unfairly traded imports could protect U.S. dry van and refrigerated trailer production 1.
- Growth in recurring parts, service and TaaS revenue could reduce dependence on the equipment cycle 13.
Threats
- A prolonged economic downturn could reduce freight volumes and demand for the company's products 1.
- Shortages of components or rising raw material and freight costs could pressure margins and delivery times 1.
- An unfavorable outcome in product liability litigation could generate further significant financial charges 1.
Risks
- Industry cyclicalityhigh
Trailer demand depends on economic conditions and freight volumes, which can cause sharp drops in sales 1.
- Customer concentrationmedium
A small number of customers generates a large share of sales, and losing a major customer could affect results 1.
- Product liability litigationhigh
The non-cash punitive damages charge recorded in fiscal 2025 shows that litigation can have major financial effects 1.
- Supplier dependencemedium
A limited number of suppliers for critical components could cause delays and cost increases if supply chain problems arise 1.
- Inflation and labor cost pressuremedium
Higher labor, material and transport costs could reduce margins if they cannot be fully passed on to customers 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the freight market recovers and fleet replacement resumes, order volume and growth in the parts segment could support a rebound in results 3.
- Protection against unfairly traded imports and growth in recurring service revenue could reduce the company's sensitivity to the production cycle 13.
- A rising backlog and a balance sheet management describes as solid could provide flexibility for investment and capacity adjustments 13.
What would break the thesis
- If the freight recession continues, lower trailer production and truck body volumes could extend the operating losses seen in the second quarter 23.
- Customer concentration and supplier dependence could make results more volatile than they appear at first sight 1.
- Product liability litigation could generate new financial charges, and compliance and protection costs could rise 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against the revenue guidance for the third quarter of 2026Q3 2026
- Development of the backlog and the gross margin of the TS segmentQ3 2026
- Outcome of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into trailer imports2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Wabash National Corporation, headquartered in Lafayette, Indiana, was founded in 1985 as a dry van trailer maker and has since diversified into end-to-end solutions for transportation, logistics and infrastructure 1. The company designs, manufactures and services dry and refrigerated trailers, platform and tank trailers, truck bodies, DuraPlate composite panels and specialty food processing equipment 1. Through Wabash Hub customers reach a national parts and service network, and through Trailers as a Service (TaaS) the company offers longer-term rental models 1. Operating profit in fiscal 2025 was 307.5 million USD, but it includes a non-cash charge of 418.6 million USD for punitive damages in a product liability matter 1.
Market context
Trailer demand depends directly on freight volumes, and U.S. trailer production fell about 16.6% in 2025 from 2024 levels 1. For 2026 industry forecasters point to even lower output, around 183000 trailers, reflecting a freight recession 1. Forecasts for 2027 and later years are more optimistic but remain uncertain, and the industry says a recovery depends on economic conditions and demand for specific products 1.
Management and a growing number of observers say the freight market is starting to stabilize, with less abundant capacity and better carrier economics 3. For the third quarter of 2026 the company guides revenue to 440 to 460 million USD, and a backlog of 956 million USD could support a sequential improvement if demand continues 3.
Trends
- Freight recession and production cyclicalityheadwind
Trailer demand depends on freight volumes, and production fell in 2025 and is expected to fall further in 2026 1. The company acknowledges that cyclicality is a structural feature of the sector 1.
- Early signs of freight market recoverytailwind
Management says supply-side forces, stricter federal enforcement and improving carrier economics are beginning to improve, which could free up capital for fleet replacement 3.
- Unfairly traded trailer importsmixed
In November 2025 U.S. producers filed petitions against dumped and subsidized van trailer imports from China, Canada and Mexico, and the ITC found in February 2026 a reasonable indication of injury 1. If duties are applied, they could support domestic production 1.
- Growth of digital and parts offeringstailwind
Expansion of the parts network, Wabash Parts and the digital platform could reduce reliance on cyclical equipment sales, but requires investment and time 13.
Competitive position
Trailer makers compete on product quality, customer relationships, technology and price, and some rivals are developing composite sidewalls that compete directly with DuraPlate 1. In specialized truck bodies there are a few national producers and many regional ones, with quality, lead times and geographic proximity as key factors 1. Foreign competition, including from countries targeted by anti-dumping actions, adds further pressure 12.
In niche segments such as tank trailers and food processing equipment the company enters more varied markets where competition differs from classic trailer production 1. Diversification could reduce dependence on one product type, but each niche has its own competitors 1.
- Domestic specialized truck body producers
Not named in the source; the filing refers only to a few national players and many regional ones.
- Foreign trailer manufacturers
Producers in China, Canada and Mexico targeted by anti-dumping petitions, which the filing says could benefit from subsidies.
- Composite panel producers
Other producers develop composite sidewalls that compete directly with the company's DuraPlate products.
- Fleet parts and service providers
Competition in parts and maintenance is mentioned in general terms, without names in the source.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Jul 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Jul 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Wabash National Corporation · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Wabash National Corporation · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Wabash National Corporation · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.