olivLaw · US equity research
Alkermes plc ALKS
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Alkermes plc is an Irish biopharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience, with proprietary products for alcohol and opioid dependence, schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder and narcolepsy. In 2026 it integrated LUMRYZ through the Avadel acquisition, which substantially changed its revenue scale and raised its expenses, while its orexin 2 receptor agonist portfolio could become a long-term growth driver.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Alkermes plc (ALKS) stock was 44.54 USD (−2.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.5 bn USD, beta 0.71, 52-week range 27.20–55.22 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 480.1 m USD (+21.8% YoY), net income of 16.3 m USD (−80.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.09 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 38.91 – 47.60
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.65 · band width 20.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 43.77 / 40.66
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.67 / 0.36
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.9% | −5.9% | +12.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.9% | −4.6% | −3.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +25.8% | +0.2% | +25.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +59.2% | +7.4% | +51.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +43.4% | +8.2% | +35.2 pp | +13.7% |
| 3 years | +78.2% | +68.4% | +9.8 pp | +19.7% |
| 5 years | +46.9% | +56.5% | −9.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 430.0 m | 306.5 m | 390.7 m | 394.2 m | 384.5 m | 392.9 m | 496.0 m | 480.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 62.1 m | 49.2 m | 49.5 m | 51.6 m | 46.2 m | 61.6 m | 98.1 m | 94.2 m |
| Research & development | 58.2 m | 71.8 m | 77.4 m | 81.7 m | 93.0 m | 103.3 m | 112.9 m | 121.1 m |
| SG&A | 147.0 m | 171.7 m | 170.8 m | 171.8 m | 187.2 m | 264.6 m | 217.6 m | 208.5 m |
| Operating income | 162.7 m | 13.8 m | 93.0 m | 89.1 m | 58.1 m | -48.3 m | 18.4 m | 36.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 6.8 m | 7.4 m | 7.8 m ≈ | 8.1 m ≈ | 3.8 m | 19.4 m | 30.3 m ≈ | 27.2 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 4.6 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.3 m | 20.9 m | 25.9 m | 27.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 169.9 m | 25.5 m | 104.8 m | 100.7 m | 60.4 m | -61.9 m | -1.9 m | 14.7 m |
| Income tax | 24.2 m | 3.0 m | 17.7 m | 18.0 m | 11.0 m | 4.6 m | -2.4 m | -1.6 m |
| Net income | 146.5 m | 22.5 m | 87.1 m | 82.8 m | 49.3 m | -66.5 m | 501.0 k | 16.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.88 ≈ | 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.29 ≈ | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Operating cash flow | 190.4 m | 98.8 m | 150.2 m ≈ | 101.7 m ≈ | 170.1 m | -165.7 m | 145.2 m ≈ | 93.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 9.8 m | 10.1 m | 13.0 m ≈ | 17.3 m ≈ | -20.0 k | 4.1 m | 8.1 m ≈ | 3.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.0 k | — | — | 0 ≈ | — | 27.7 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +21.1% | +7.0% | −11.3% | +13.0% | −5.3% | +49.6% | −6.4% | −5.2% |
| Net income | -139.3 m | -196.6 m | -110.9 m | -48.2 m | -158.3 m | 355.8 m | 367.1 m | 241.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +3.2% | −34.2% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | -0.70 | -0.29 | -0.97 | 2.10 | 2.17 | 1.43 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +3.3% | −34.1% |
| net % | -12.7% | -16.8% | -10.7% | -4.1% | -14.2% | 21.4% | 23.6% | 16.4% |
| Free cash flow | 29.9 m | -18.9 m | 40.6 m | 73.7 m | -17.2 m | 353.3 m | 405.6 m | 480.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 388.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -388.6 m USD
- Equity
- 1.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 3.55x
- ROE
- 14.7%
- ROA
- 10.6%
- FCF margin
- 32.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 178.3 m | 197.3 m | 218.1 m | 253.0 m | 245.3 m | 196.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 860.4 m ≈ | 976.4 m ≈ | 893.7 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 394.6 m | 290.9 m | 272.7 m | 270.8 m | 245.3 m | 324.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 538.8 m | 549.6 m | 590.8 m | 689.8 m | 645.2 m | 701.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -112.4 m | 97.7 m | -6.1 m | 414.1 m | 420.6 m | 254.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 81.9 m | 78.7 m | 77.9 m | 74.9 m | 28.5 m | 27.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -30.6 m ≈ | 176.4 m ≈ | 71.8 m ≈ | 489.0 m ≈ | 449.2 m ≈ | 281.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 8.7 m | 11.2 m | 13.0 m | 23.0 m | 22.6 m | 12.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -96.5 m | 87.7 m | -31.1 m | 421.5 m | 443.8 m | 291.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 14.3 m | 11.3 m | 2.0 m | -97.6 m | 71.6 m | 49.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -110.9 m | -48.2 m | -158.3 m | 355.8 m | 367.1 m | 241.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.70 | -0.29 | -0.97 | 2.10 | 2.17 | 1.43 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 158.8 m | 164.8 m | 163.7 m | 169.7 m | 169.2 m | 168.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 273.0 m | 337.5 m | 292.5 m | 457.5 m | 291.1 m | 388.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 125.7 m | 150.3 m | 181.4 m | 186.4 m | 182.9 m | 196.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 350.0 m | 341.1 m | 222.9 m | 226.9 m | 227.6 m | 221.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 92.9 m | 92.9 m | 83.0 m | 83.0 m | 83.0 m | 83.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 111.2 m | 74.0 m | 37.7 m | 2.0 m | 890.0 k | 815.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 46.0 m | 55.7 m | 32.8 m | 65.6 m | 45.6 m | 108.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.8 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 272.1 m | 292.8 m | 290.3 m | 287.7 m | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 438.3 m | 471.3 m | 497.7 m | 520.2 m | 465.2 m | 543.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 882.7 m | 911.9 m | 920.2 m | 933.5 m | 590.6 m | 667.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn † | 1.1 bn † | 1.0 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 1.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 82.8 m | 101.7 m | 21.0 m | 401.4 m | 439.1 m | 520.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 42.2 m | 28.0 m | 38.3 m | 48.0 m | 33.5 m | 40.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 40.6 m ≈ | 73.7 m ≈ | -17.2 m ≈ | 353.3 m ≈ | 405.6 m ≈ | 480.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.5 m | -66.2 m | -64.5 m | 53.4 m | -111.3 m | 295.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.2 m | 29.1 m | -1.6 m | -289.7 m | -494.1 m | 12.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | 200.3 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 37 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Returns0
- Growth83
- Balance sheet34
- Valuation26
- Quality44
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.06 – 41.24 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)23.75 – 41.24 (Mid 30.36)WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 300.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 26.0%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA5.06 – 20.87 (Mid 12.20)5 companies used · median multiple 20.1x · quartiles 11.8x – 30.2xBHC, JAZZ, TEVA, VRTX, VTRS
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 37/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 2.0% | 42 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.0% | 47 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.9% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 6.0x | 29 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 57.6x | 17 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.0% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet34/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial83/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation26/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Alkermes plc. (ALKS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -5.2%; net margin -0.0%; ROE -0.0%; net debt/EBITDA 6.0x.
The estimated value range is 14.41–31.06 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 21.28 USD, the price of 44.54 USD leaves a potential of -52.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -109.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 37/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.9%
- Current ratio: 2.4x
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 6.0x
- Interest coverage: 0.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 57.6x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,283.9 bn | 44.3 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +27% / +131% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 655.6 bn | 41.3 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +32% / +76% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 575.0 bn | 640.9 | 18.4% | 13.9% | +40.2% | +14% / +107% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 509.5 bn | 49.6 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +27% / +102% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 362.2 bn | 151.2 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +40% / +43% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 196.7 bn | 42.3 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −12% / +9% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 170.3 bn | 42.6 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +16% / −2% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 137.5 bn | 34.9 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +25% / +53% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 129.0 bn | 14.0 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +28% / +28% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.3 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +55% / +325% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 33.4 bn | 13.8 | 57.6% | 26.4% | +2.3% | −36% / −54% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 26.5 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +76% / +283% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 26.2 bn | 47.7 | 6.9% | 25.7% | +5.1% | +69% / +150% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 24.1 bn | 21.3 | 19.1% | 38.6% | +10.6% | +16% / +136% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 23.9 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −48% / +335% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 21.7 bn | — | -24.3% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +77% / +107% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.0 bn | 7.9 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −65% / −7% |
| JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plc | 14.6 bn | 74.1 | 5.1% | 4.4% | +4.9% | +29% / +92% |
| ALKSAlkermes plc. | 7.5 bn | — | -0.0% | -0.0% | −5.2% | +43% / +78% |
| TVTXTravere Therapeutics, Inc. | 4.7 bn | — | -252.7% | -18.7% | +110.5% | +38% / +678% |
| LQDALiquidia Corporation | 4.0 bn | 32.1 | 131.8% | 30.7% | +1,031.2% | +36% / +521% |
| ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -17.3% | -248.8% | +160.6% | +198% / +136% |
| BHCBausch Health Companies Inc. | 3.0 bn | — | — | -7.6% | +6.7% | +25% / +11% |
| PRGOPerrigo Company plc | 2.2 bn | — | -51.4% | -43.3% | −2.8% | +18% / −48% |
| SRPTSarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -7.6% | -5.9% | +15.6% | −18% / −78% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ALKS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
In brief
Alkermes plc is an Irish biopharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience, with proprietary products for alcohol and opioid dependence, schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder and narcolepsy. In 2026 it integrated LUMRYZ through the Avadel acquisition, which substantially changed its revenue scale and raised its expenses, while its orexin 2 receptor agonist portfolio could become a long-term growth driver 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- A proprietary portfolio sold exclusively in the U.S., with products that make up the main part of revenue 1.
- Growth in proprietary product revenue, especially LYBALVI and LUMRYZ, with 2026 guidance reaffirmed 23.
- A neuroscience pipeline with Breakthrough Therapy designation and positive phase 2 results 13.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on a few proprietary products whose sales can be affected by regulation and payer pressure 1.
- A net loss in the first half of 2026, driven by integration costs and amortization after the Avadel acquisition 2.
- Declining royalty income, mainly from INVEGA products, which reduces the predictability of licensed revenue 1.
Opportunities
- Development of alixorexton in narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia could substantially expand the addressable market 13.
- If LUMRYZ maintains its growth, it could become a central part of the narcolepsy portfolio 3.
- Expanding indications for products such as ARISTADA and LYBALVI could increase revenue over the medium term 1.
Risks
- Concentration of revenue in proprietary productshigh
A small number of proprietary products generate most of the revenue, so manufacturing, regulatory or market problems could have a substantial effect 1.
- Payer and regulatory pressurehigh
Price reductions and changes to reimbursement programs could reduce revenue from U.S. sales 1.
- Integration of the Avadel acquisitionmedium
Integrating LUMRYZ and the acquired commercial organization involves high costs and operational risks, and contingent consideration may increase 23.
- Patent litigationmedium
The company is involved in Paragraph IV litigation over LYBALVI, and the outcome is uncertain 1.
- Clinical trial outcomesmedium
Drug development carries a high degree of risk, and phase 3 results for alixorexton could differ from phase 2 results 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in LYBALVI and ARISTADA sales and the contribution from LUMRYZ could support revenue in the second half of 2026 23.
- The orexin 2 pipeline could become a major new source of growth if phase 2 data are confirmed in later studies 13.
- If integration costs stabilize, the adjusted EBITDA margin could improve profitability 3.
What would break the thesis
- The first-half 2026 net loss and high amortization could prolong the period of low profitability 23.
- If VIVITROL faces generic competition earlier, revenue from an important product could fall quickly 1.
- Royalty revenue from the Janssen portfolio is declining, which could reduce income sources that carry no added cost 1.
What to watch
- Phase 2 results for alixorexton in idiopathic hypersomniayear-end 2026
- LUMRYZ sales trajectory after the Avadel acquisitionQ3 2026
- Changes to 2026 guidance and adjusted EBITDA progressQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
The business
Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines, headquartered in Ireland, with a corporate office and R&D center in Massachusetts and a manufacturing facility in Ohio 1. Its proprietary products marketed in the U.S. include VIVITROL, ARISTADA and ARISTADA INITIO, LYBALVI and, since February 12, 2026, LUMRYZ after completing the Avadel acquisition 13. In fiscal 2025, product sales, net were $1184.6 million and manufacturing and royalty revenues were $291.3 million 1.
Beyond its proprietary products, the company earns revenue from licensed products such as the INVEGA SUSTENNA/XEPLION, INVEGA TRINZA/TREVICTA and INVEGA HAFYERA/BYANNLI franchise, RISPERDAL CONSTA (Janssen) and VUMERITY (Biogen) 12. Revenue from these arrangements declined in 2025, largely because the U.S. royalty on INVEGA SUSTENNA expired in August 2024 1. The pipeline includes alixorexton, an oral selective orexin 2 receptor agonist studied in narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia 13.
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Avadel acquisition and LUMRYZmixed
The acquisition brought LUMRYZ into the portfolio and lifted quarterly revenue, but it also brought high costs, amortization and changes in contingent consideration 23. If LUMRYZ sales keep growing, they could offset declines in other revenue.
- Expansion of the orexin 2 portfoliotailwind
Alixorexton received Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA for NT1 and phase 2 results have been positive, which could open new growth opportunities 13. On the other hand, development costs are rising and final outcomes remain uncertain.
- Drug pricing and reimbursement pressureheadwind
Federal drug pricing rules and negotiation programs could reduce net revenue for products sold in the U.S. 1. This pressure could particularly affect products that contribute most of the revenue.
- Patent expiry and generic competitionmixed
The latest VIVITROL patent expires in 2029 and generics are expected in 2027, while ARISTADA is protected until 2039 1. Loss of exclusivity could reduce sales, but the extended protection for ARISTADA defers that risk.
Competitive position
The company faces competition from academic research, other biopharmaceutical companies and generic manufacturers, and some competitors are also its licensees 1. ARISTADA and LYBALVI compete directly with the INVEGA and RISPERDAL CONSTA products, which Alkermes manufactures and earns royalties on 1.
In addiction treatment, several companies are developing products that could compete with VIVITROL, and in schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder there are many competitors, including an oral antipsychotic selected for Medicare negotiation 1. Larger competitors have considerably greater financial and operational resources 1.
- Janssen
Principal licensee for INVEGA and RISPERDAL CONSTA, a direct competitor in schizophrenia through its long-acting injectable products.
- BiogenBIIB
Exclusive licensee for VUMERITY in multiple sclerosis, which is also a source of revenue for Alkermes.
- Jazz PharmaceuticalsJAZZ
Party to the settlement with Avadel, which provides a royalty on LUMRYZ sales for narcolepsy.
- Generic drug manufacturers
Companies developing generic versions of Alkermes products, with potential impact on sales and pricing.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- STAT+: Pharmalittle: We’re reading about Novo plans to expand its pipeline, early Alkermes ADHD data, and moreSTAT News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- STAT+: Alkermes’ orexin agonist shows potential to treat ADHD in early-stage trialSTAT News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Alkermes Chief Commercial Officer Sells 7,576 Shares for $373,000Yahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Aug 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)03 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jul 2026Termination of a material agreement
- Current report15 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Alkermes plc · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Alkermes plc · 28 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Alkermes plc · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.