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olivLaw · US equity research

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ARWR

Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

57.46USD−6.80% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops medicines for hard-to-treat diseases by silencing the genes that cause them, using RNA interference (RNAi). In 2025 it launched its first commercial product, REDEMPLO, and in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 revenue reached 75.253 mn USD, compared with 27.767 mn USD a year earlier, as the company expands its market and partnerships.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) stock was 57.46 USD (−6.80% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.1 bn USD, beta 1.74, 52-week range 38.09–89.59 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 75.3 m USD (+171.0% YoY), net income of -194.3 m USD, diluted EPS -1.36 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
8.1 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -2.25 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-3.91%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.74
Volatility (1y) 60%
52-week range
38.0989.59

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
37.1
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
56.07 – 62.19
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 10.3%
SMA 50 / 200
67.52 / 71.61
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.94 / -2.64
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−6.6%−5.9%−0.7 pp—
3 months−33.1%−4.6%−28.4 pp—
6 months−26.3%+0.2%−26.5 pp—
Year to date−13.5%+7.4%−20.9 pp—
1 year+42.5%+8.2%+34.3 pp+13.7%
3 years+113.4%+68.4%+44.9 pp+15.7%
5 years−28.8%+56.5%−85.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−37.6%
04 Aug 2026 → 16 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−87.9%
08 Nov 2021 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−6.6%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
75.3 m USD
+171.0% YoY
Net income
-194.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-1.36
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-258.2% / -226.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue02.5 m542.7 m27.8 m256.5 m264.0 m73.7 m75.3 m
Research & development—137.0 m133.1 m162.4 m174.7 m177.2 m173.3 m198.2 m
SG&A——28.4 m30.9 m——41.7 m47.1 m
Operating income-162.2 m-161.4 m381.2 m-165.6 m44.1 m40.8 m-141.3 m-170.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation4.6 m4.8 m5.6 m5.8 m6.0 m6.0 m5.9 m6.2 m
Interest expense14.6 m21.6 m21.6 m24.4 m21.7 m22.5 m23.8 m24.6 m
Pre-tax income-172.8 m-175.1 m369.6 m-179.1 m36.1 m28.3 m-137.6 m-178.9 m
Income tax546.0 k103.0 k1.8 m-437.0 k20.0 m29.0 k7.0 k11.0 k
Net income-170.5 m-173.1 m370.4 m-175.2 m-23.8 m30.8 m-132.7 m-194.3 m
Diluted EPS-1.37 ≈-1.392.75-1.26-0.18 ≈0.22-0.93-1.36
Operating cash flow-137.2 m-146.3 m460.1 m ≈-154.7 m ≈20.5 m13.5 m84.4 m ≈-177.5 m ≈
Capex24.3 m7.5 m5.3 m ≈2.4 m ≈7.5 m2.1 m2.6 m ≈3.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2018⚠ 2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue16.1 m168.8 m88.0 m138.3 m243.2 m240.7 m3.6 m829.4 m
Revenue YoY−48.6%—−47.9%+57.2%+75.9%−1.0%−98.5%+23,258.2%
Net income-54.5 m68.0 m-84.6 m-140.8 m-176.1 m-205.3 m-599.5 m-1.6 m
Net income YoYunavailable—−224.4%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.650.69-0.84-1.36-1.67-1.92-5.00-0.01
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable—−221.7%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-337.3%40.3%-96.1%-101.9%-72.4%-85.3%-16,882.4%-0.2%
Free cash flow-48.6 m161.0 m-107.8 m147.7 m-188.9 m-330.6 m-604.3 m156.9 m

The series breaks before 2019: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
226.5 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
503.4 m USD
Total assets
1.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
4.86x
ROE
-0.5%
ROA
-0.1%
FCF margin
18.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
240.7 m
2024
3.6 m
2025
829.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Research & development
2023
353.2 m
2024
505.9 m
2025
607.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Operating income
2023
-205.0 m
2024
-601.1 m
2025
98.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
10.7 m
2024
16.9 m
2025
22.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
-194.3 m ≈
2024
-584.2 m ≈
2025
120.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
18.3 m
2024
32.4 m
2025
89.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-206.5 m
2024
-612.5 m
2025
51.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Income tax
2023
2.8 m
2024
-2.8 m
2025
21.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Net income
2023
-205.3 m
2024
-599.5 m
2025
-1.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.92
2024
-5.00
2025
-0.01

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
106.8 m
2024
119.8 m
2025
133.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
110.9 m
2024
102.7 m
2025
226.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Receivables
2023
0
2024
0
2025
6.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Current assets
2023
416.5 m
2024
695.5 m
2025
950.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
290.3 m
2024
386.0 m
2025
382.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
10.3 m
2024
8.6 m
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Total assets
2023
765.6 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
35.9 m
2024
11.4 m
2025
17.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
105.5 m
2024
103.2 m
2025
195.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Equity
2023
287.2 m
2024
191.1 m
2025
503.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-153.9 m
2024
-462.9 m
2025
179.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Capex
2023
176.7 m
2024
141.5 m
2025
22.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
-330.6 m ≈
2024
-604.3 m ≈
2025
156.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-96.2 m
2024
-420.1 m
2025
-129.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
253.1 m
2024
870.5 m
2025
74.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
23,258.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
50.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
56.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-30.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-33.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-47.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-11.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-64.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-18.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
5.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-59.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
16.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-75.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
5 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
8.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
17.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
12.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

57.46 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 8.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
8.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
17.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-64.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-47.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
23,258.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Aug 2026
verified 1852derived 113

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-47.8%23 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth50.5%100 (on a fixed band)25%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-2.4x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Current ratio · Balance sheet5.9x100 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-0.9%0 (on a fixed band)25%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial23/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (ARWR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 829.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 23,258.2%; net margin -47.8%; ROE -64.8%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 50.5%
  • Current ratio: 5.9x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -47.8%
  • Interest coverage: -2.4x
  • FCF yield: -0.9%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 38.1x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 25.2x
P/S
12.1x
vertical median 6.6x
above median (+85.0%)
P/B
17.4x
vertical median 3.9x
above median (+352.2%)
ROE
-64.8%
vertical median -4.8%
below median
Net margin
-47.8%
vertical median 3.6%
below median (−1,412.7%)
EBIT margin
-33.8%
vertical median -2.5%
below median
Revenue YoY
23,258.2%
vertical median 5.1%
above median (+459,226.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LLYEli Lilly And Company1,283.9 bn44.386.1%31.9%+44.7%+27% / +131%
JNJJohnson & Johnson655.6 bn41.320.0%16.2%+6.0%+32% / +76%
ONCBeone Medicines Ltd.572.4 bn891.714.7%10.7%+40.2%+14% / +107%
ABBVAbbVie Inc.509.5 bn49.6—15.7%+8.6%+27% / +102%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.362.2 bn151.25.1%3.6%+1.3%+40% / +43%
ABTAbbott Laboratories196.7 bn42.39.2%9.7%+5.7%−12% / +9%
PFEPfizer Inc170.3 bn42.64.4%6.3%−1.6%+16% / −2%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc137.5 bn34.920.8%30.7%+8.9%+25% / +53%
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company129.0 bn14.044.1%18.5%−0.2%+28% / +28%
TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited48.8 bn97.36.6%3.6%+4.3%+55% / +325%
ZTSZoetis Inc.33.9 bn13.564.4%27.5%+2.3%−36% / −54%
ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd.26.5 bn—-6.2%-3,535.0%−71.6%+76% / +283%
RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc26.2 bn47.76.9%25.7%+5.1%+69% / +150%
UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation24.1 bn21.319.1%38.6%+10.6%+16% / +136%
INSMInsmed Inc23.9 bn—-72.5%-39.9%+66.7%−48% / +335%
VTRSViatris Inc.21.8 bn—-23.6%-23.9%−3.0%+77% / +107%
ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.21.0 bn7.9126.6%52.8%+65.2%−65% / −7%
BBIOBridgeBio Pharma, Inc.14.5 bn——-61.3%+126.3%+3% / +159%
MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.9.3 bn—-24.8%-10.9%+432.1%−33% / +97%
ARWRArrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.8.1 bn—-64.8%-47.8%+23,258.2%+43% / +113%
OGNOrganon & Co.3.6 bn18.020.3%3.5%−2.9%+79% / +22%
ZLABZai Lab Limited2.0 bn—-26.9%-41.9%+15.3%+11% / −17%
SLSSELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc.1.6 bn—-39.6%—−100.0%+386% / +658%
OMEROmeros Corp1.2 bn9.9——−34.0%+76% / +679%
IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals Inc667.2 m4.5—37.4%−15.7%+15% / −59%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ARWR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
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Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops medicines for hard-to-treat diseases by silencing the genes that cause them, using RNA interference (RNAi). In 2025 it launched its first commercial product, REDEMPLO, and in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 revenue reached 75.253 mn USD, compared with 27.767 mn USD a year earlier, as the company expands its market and partnerships.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A broad TRiM platform and a large clinical portfolio, plus a first commercial product with solid clinical evidence.
    • Very large cash resources at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2026, providing capacity to fund programs.
    • An extensive network of major partners bringing upfront payments, milestones and access to international markets.

    Weaknesses

    • Persistent net losses and rising research spending, with no near-term profitability.
    • Uneven revenue that depends on the timing of milestones and partner payments.
    • Limited commercial experience with a single approved product, which makes evaluation difficult.

    Opportunities

    • Extension of REDEMPLO to severe hypertriglyceridemia, a far more prevalent condition.
    • New agreements for programs such as ARO-PNPLA3 and ARO-SNCA that could bring additional revenue.
    • Development in obesity, liver disease and neurodegeneration, where the platform could have broad applications.

    Threats

    • Delays in clinical trials or rejected approval filings could postpone revenue.
    • Competition in the triglyceride and cholesterol therapy class could reduce market share.
    • Pricing pressure and reimbursement conditions could limit product margins.

    Risks

    • Commercial acceptance of REDEMPLOhigh

      If medical adoption is slow, product revenue could fall short of expectations while commercial spending remains high.

    • Need for additional fundingmedium

      The company notes it will need substantial funds for research and development, and its debt and credit arrangements may limit financial flexibility.

    • Dependence on partners and third-party manufacturersmedium

      Control over milestones and production is partly in the hands of others, which could lead to delays.

    • Protection of intellectual propertymedium

      Patents could be challenged, and generic entry could affect REDEMPLO revenue if exclusivity periods are not respected.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the sHTG indication for REDEMPLO is approved quickly, the market for the product could grow considerably, giving the company a product with a much wider patient base.
    • Very large cash resources and agreements with major partners could fund several programs at once without depending on a single approval.
    • The TRiM platform could yield more candidates over time, and each new clinical success could add value to the portfolio.

    What would break the thesis

    • Persistent net losses and rising research spending could continue, possibly forcing new equity issues or costly financing.
    • If REDEMPLO adoption stays below expectations, or pricing and reimbursement prove harsher, commercial revenue could remain well below plan.
    • Dependence on partner milestones and payments makes revenue unpredictable, and trial delays could postpone receipts.

    What to watch

    • Filing of the supplemental REDEMPLO application for sHTG and FDA review progress2026
    • Pace of REDEMPLO prescription growth and expansion of payer coverageQ4 2026
    • Final results of SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4, presented at the ESC Congress2026
    • Completion of the YOSEMITE trial for zodasiran and subsequent approval filingsmid-2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company developing medicines for intractable diseases by silencing the genes that cause them, using the natural RNA interference mechanism. Its proprietary TRiM platform enables targeted delivery of molecules to several tissue types, from liver and lung to the central nervous system. The company has 18 Arrowhead discovered candidates in clinical trials, from phase 1 to phase 3, according to its annual report for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. Its first approved product, REDEMPLO (plozasiran), was approved by the FDA in November 2025 for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS).

    The business model relies on licensing and collaboration agreements with large companies for programs Arrowhead does not intend to commercialize independently. These deals bring upfront payments, milestone payments and royalties that help fund its own candidates. According to the August 4, 2026 release, the company ended the third quarter of fiscal 2026 with total cash resources of 1,566,886 thousand USD, well above the level at September 30, 2025. Dependence on partners who control the timing of payments remains an important factor to consider.

    Research is carried out in laboratories in California and Wisconsin, and the principal executive offices are in Pasadena, California. The company uses outside contract research organizations and third-party manufacturers for part of its trial materials and, in the future, commercial products. Candidate costs rise as candidates advance through development, and net losses remain a feature of the company, with a net loss attributable to Arrowhead of 194,280 thousand USD in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.

    Segments

    Licensing and collaborations

    Revenue comes mainly from agreements with partners such as Sarepta, Novartis, Madrigal, GSK, Takeda and Amgen. In fiscal 2025 Arrowhead earned a 200.0 mn USD milestone from Sarepta, and milestones are generally tied to clinical events, so revenue is lumpy from quarter to quarter.

    REDEMPLO (commercial product)

    REDEMPLO is the first commercial product, approved in the US, European Union, Canada, Australia and China for adults with FCS. Prescription volume roughly doubled in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, and more than 400 practitioners have already prescribed it. The company is preparing a supplemental filing for sHTG and has acquired an FDA priority review voucher to accelerate review.

    Clinical and preclinical pipeline

    The pipeline includes phase 3 candidates for severe hypertriglyceridemia and HoFH, as well as programs in obesity, liver disease, complement-mediated disease and neuromuscular disorders. Many of these programs are licensed to other companies, but Arrowhead retains rights to some, making the pipeline an asset both on its own and through partners.

    Market context

    The markets Arrowhead targets include metabolic and cardiovascular disease, liver disease, neuromuscular and neurodegenerative conditions, where many targets remain hard to address with conventional drugs. Severe hypertriglyceridemia is far more prevalent than FCS, so approval of the sHTG indication could significantly widen the REDEMPLO market. For Alzheimer's disease, the company cites an estimate of 32 mn people worldwide, a large market but with considerable clinical uncertainty.

    RNAi markets are still forming, and outcomes depend on clinical trials and on acceptance by physicians and payers. The company reports that most major payers already have favorable policies for REDEMPLO, which could speed adoption if the trend holds. The real size of the market will, however, depend on the final price, access to reimbursement and competition in the segment.

    Trends

    • Regulatory approvals and geographic expansiontailwind

      Approvals in the US, EU, Canada, Australia and China for REDEMPLO open new markets and strengthen the clinical evidence for the technology. If approvals translate into adoption, commercial revenue could rise meaningfully in coming quarters.

    • Expansion into severe hypertriglyceridemiatailwind

      Results from SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 support demand for a broader indication, and the priority review voucher could shorten the review period. This is a favorable factor, but it depends on FDA acceptance and final data.

    • Dependence on partners for revenueheadwind

      Much of the revenue and milestone income comes from partners who control the pace of development. If partners delay programs, cash inflows could fall, making the company vulnerable.

    Competitive position

    Arrowhead competes with other companies developing genetic and RNA therapies for metabolic and cardiovascular disease, as well as with established drugs and antibody-type molecules. Its stated advantage is the TRiM platform, which could offer targeted delivery and better safety profiles. The sources, however, give no direct quantitative comparison with competitors.

    In the REDEMPLO launch, Arrowhead must establish its position against therapies already used for triglycerides and new candidates in the same class. Several of its programs are licensed to other firms, so some competitors may also be partners, and competition depends on what those companies pursue.

    • Sanofi

      Holds rights to develop and commercialize plozasiran in Greater China, making it both a partner and a player in the same therapeutic class.

    • Amgen Inc.AMGN

      Partner for olpasiran, a cardiovascular program licensed from Arrowhead's portfolio.

    • GlaxoSmithKline

      Partner on several programs, including GSK4532990 in MASH and daplusiran/tomligisiran in hepatitis B.

    • Madrigal Pharmaceuticals

      Partner that licensed ARO-PNPLA3 for MASH and paid an upfront payment of 25 mn USD.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 06 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 25 Nov 2025
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.