olivLaw · US equity research
Assembly Biosciences, Inc. ASMB
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Assembly Biosciences is a biotechnology company developing antiviral therapies for recurrent genital herpes, hepatitis delta and hepatitis B. The current focus is the transition of its HPI program to Gilead and the pending decision on the cost and profit sharing option, against a cash position meant to fund operations without any approved products. The company has no approved products yet, and its revenue comes mainly from the Gilead collaboration.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (ASMB) stock was 19.87 USD (−0.25% on the day), with market capitalisation 404.6 m USD, beta 1.10, 52-week range 19.51–38.50 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 13.4 m USD (+38.9% YoY), net income of -3.9 m USD, diluted EPS -0.20 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 18.52 – 22.82
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.31 · band width 20.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.28 / 27.03
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.26 / -1.48
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.6% | −1.1% | −11.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −25.1% | −0.5% | −24.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −36.6% | +4.4% | −41.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −41.6% | +12.3% | −53.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −36.8% | +13.5% | −50.3 pp | +8.9% |
| 3 years | +90.3% | +76.4% | +13.9 pp | +15.7% |
| 5 years | −46.8% | +63.7% | −110.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.8 m | 7.4 m | 9.4 m | 9.6 m | 10.8 m | 42.5 m | 8.2 m | 13.4 m |
| Research & development | 13.5 m | 14.3 m | 14.9 m | 16.1 m | 16.6 m | 17.3 m | 14.9 m | 14.9 m |
| Operating income | -11.0 m | -11.5 m | -9.9 m | -11.1 m | -10.9 m | 19.8 m | -11.4 m | -6.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 33.0 k ≈ | 32.0 k | 33.0 k | 32.0 k ≈ | 32.0 k ≈ | 32.0 k | 26.0 k | 20.0 k ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | -9.6 m | -10.4 m | — | -10.2 m | -9.2 m | 22.1 m | — | — |
| Income tax | 0 | -76.0 k | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Net income | -9.6 m | -10.3 m | -8.8 m | -10.2 m | -9.2 m | 22.1 m | -9.1 m | -3.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.51 | -1.58 ≈ | -1.17 | -1.33 | -0.72 | 1.31 ≈ | -0.54 | -0.20 |
| Operating cash flow | -15.2 m ≈ | -407.0 k | -23.4 m | -16.8 m ≈ | -15.1 m ≈ | 14.2 m | -22.1 m | -15.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 42.0 k ≈ | 24.0 k | 19.0 k | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ⚠ 2022 | 2023 | ⚠ 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.8 m | 16.0 m | 79.1 m | 6.3 m | 0 | 7.2 m | 28.5 m | 72.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | +64.1% | +7.8% | +395.6% | −92.1% | — | unavailable | — | +153.5% |
| Net income | -90.8 m | -97.6 m | -62.2 m | -129.9 m | -93.1 m | -61.2 m | -40.2 m | -6.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | — | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -3.00 | -23.08 | -13.38 | -6.69 | -0.55 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | — | unavailable |
| net % | -613.0% | -611.6% | -78.6% | -2,076.4% | unavailable | -854.8% | -140.9% | -8.5% |
| Free cash flow | -65.3 m | -85.6 m | -63.4 m | -96.5 m | -84.6 m | 22.5 m | -51.1 m | -41.2 m |
The series breaks before 2022, 2024: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 58.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 206.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 257.6 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 5.22x
- ROE
- -5.1%
- ROA
- -3.2%
- FCF margin
- -56.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 79.1 m | 6.3 m | 0 | 7.2 m | 28.5 m | 72.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 106.8 m | 68.5 m | 70.0 m | 48.9 m | 55.9 m | 64.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -64.8 m | -132.7 m | -94.1 m | -64.6 m | -45.4 m | -12.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 691.0 k | 466.0 k | 498.0 k | 450.0 k | 129.0 k | 129.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -64.1 m ≈ | -132.2 m ≈ | -93.6 m ≈ | -64.2 m ≈ | -45.3 m ≈ | -12.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -62.2 m | -132.4 m | -93.1 m | -61.2 m | -39.8 m | -6.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | -2.5 m | 0 | 33.0 k | 330.0 k | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -62.2 m | -129.9 m | -93.1 m | -61.2 m | -40.2 m | -6.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -3.00 | -23.08 | -13.38 | -6.69 | -0.55 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 43.3 m | 4.0 m | 4.6 m | 6.0 m | 11.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 59.4 m | 45.6 m | 52.4 m | 19.8 m | 38.3 m | 58.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 m | 336.0 k | 944.0 k | 43.0 k | 0 | 974.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 224.5 m | 154.2 m | 97.0 m | 133.8 m | 115.5 m | 254.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.6 m | 1.1 m | 743.0 k | 385.0 k | 284.0 k | 221.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 12.6 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2021verified |
| Total assets | 283.3 m | 191.1 m | 101.8 m | 136.8 m | 119.2 m | 257.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 4.6 m | 2.7 m | 2.5 m | 461.0 k | 585.0 k | 1.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 24.4 m | 16.1 m | 16.3 m | 39.2 m | 47.8 m | 48.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 42.7 m | 22.1 m | 19.1 m | 95.7 m | 85.8 m | 50.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 240.6 m † | 168.9 m † | 82.7 m † | 41.1 m † | 33.4 m † | 206.8 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -63.0 m | -93.4 m | -84.5 m | 22.7 m | -51.1 m | -41.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 470.0 k | 3.1 m | 102.0 k | 255.0 k | 28.0 k | 66.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -63.4 m ≈ | -96.5 m ≈ | -84.6 m ≈ | 22.5 m ≈ | -51.1 m ≈ | -41.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 68.1 m | 26.5 m | 90.6 m | -69.1 m | 40.2 m | -113.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 7.6 m | 53.1 m | 614.0 k | 13.8 m | 29.4 m | 174.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 404.6 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
19% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.1% | 34 (vs peers) | 33% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 14.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -9.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 44% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial34/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (ASMB). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 72.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 153.5%; net margin -0.1%; ROE -0.0%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 14.0x
What contradicts it
- FCF yield: -9.5%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,334.0 bn | 46.0 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +32% / +140% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 665.2 bn | 41.9 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +34% / +79% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 558.4 bn | 869.9 | 14.7% | 10.7% | +40.2% | +11% / +102% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 521.1 bn | 50.7 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +29% / +107% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 370.7 bn | 154.7 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +43% / +47% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 200.1 bn | 43.0 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −10% / +11% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 175.5 bn | 43.9 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +20% / +1% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 139.2 bn | 35.3 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +27% / +55% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 131.2 bn | 14.2 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +30% / +30% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.4 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +56% / +326% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 36.9 bn | 14.7 | 64.4% | 27.5% | +2.3% | −30% / −50% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 27.6 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +84% / +300% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 26.2 bn | 47.7 | 6.9% | 25.7% | +5.1% | +69% / +150% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 25.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.1% | 38.6% | +10.6% | +25% / +154% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 24.1 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −47% / +340% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 22.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +80% / +109% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.6 bn | 8.1 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −64% / −4% |
| ORKAOruka Therapeutics, Inc. | 6.7 bn | — | -18.2% | — | unavailable | +237% / +364% |
| HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 11.4 | 18.7% | 18.1% | +21.5% | −2% / +18% |
| OMEROmeros Corp | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | — | — | −34.0% | +88% / +730% |
| VSTMVerastem, Inc. | 892.0 m | — | -471.2% | -231.6% | +209.1% | −7% / +43% |
| COLLCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. | 770.6 m | 19.1 | 17.6% | 5.9% | +23.6% | −49% / −8% |
| IBOImpact BioMedical, INC. | 442.1 m | 560.3 | 371.3% | 2,254.3% | unavailable | −27% / unavailable |
| KMDAKamada Ltd | 428.0 m | 21.2 | 7.6% | 11.2% | +12.1% | +11% / +57% |
| ASMBAssembly Biosciences, Inc. | 404.6 m | — | -0.0% | -0.1% | +153.5% | −37% / +90% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ASMB from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Assembly Biosciences is a biotechnology company developing antiviral therapies for recurrent genital herpes, hepatitis delta and hepatitis B. The current focus is the transition of its HPI program to Gilead and the pending decision on the cost and profit sharing option, against a cash position meant to fund operations without any approved products. The company has no approved products yet, and its revenue comes mainly from the Gilead collaboration.
SWOT
Strengths
- The portfolio includes advanced clinical candidates with favorable Phase 1b data, and the leadership team has recognized experience in antiviral development 1.
- The Gilead agreement brings an important industry partner and funding through payments and equity investments 2.
- The company secured a longer funding runway through the financing transaction announced in 2026 2.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Risks
- Dependence on Gileadhigh
The HPI program is controlled by Gilead, and the partner's decisions on development and options could change the timeline and value of the agreement 1.
- Funding needsmedium
The company announced a financing transaction, but long-term development may require additional capital 1.
- Dependence on overseas CROsmedium
Studies are partly run by CROs outside the US, and geopolitical tensions or tariffs could disrupt activity 1.
- Cost and profit sharing decisionlow
The decision on the cost and profit sharing option depends on the partner's commercial estimates and could influence the structure of revenue 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Phase 1b data are confirmed in later phases, the HPI program could generate significant payments from Gilead.
- The recurrent genital herpes and hepatitis delta markets have unmet medical needs, which could support adoption of new therapies.
- Extended financing could allow the company to advance ABI-6250 without depending immediately on new equity.
What would break the thesis
- The company has no approved products, and failure of a clinical study could materially reduce the portfolio's value.
- Revenue depends on a single partner, and net losses persist, which could increase pressure on funding.
- Gilead could decide not to exercise certain options, as has already happened with ABI-4334, which could limit prospects.
What to watch
- Decision on the cost and profit sharing option for the HPI programmid-2026
- Start of the Phase 2 study of ABI-6250 in HDVQ4 2026
- Start of the Phase 2 study of 1179 run by Gilead2026
- Phase 2 preparation for ABI-6250 in cholestatic liver diseasesQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Assembly Biosciences develops innovative therapeutics for serious viral diseases, with a pipeline of several clinical-stage candidates. According to the 10-K for 2025, the company has two long-acting helicase-primase inhibitors for recurrent genital herpes, an entry inhibitor for hepatitis delta virus (HDV) and a next-generation capsid assembly modulator for hepatitis B (HBV). The company has no approved products and has not yet submitted an application to the FDA 1.
In December 2025, Gilead Sciences exercised its option to license the HPI program for recurrent genital herpes, including candidates ABI-1179 and ABI-5366 1. In June 2026, the company received Gilead's development plan and budget, and the decision on the cost and profit sharing option was to be made after review of Gilead's commercial cost estimates 2. For ABI-6250, the company completed chronic toxicology studies, and Phase 2 initiation in HDV is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 3.
The company's revenue is currently tied almost entirely to the Gilead collaboration. For the first quarter of 2026, collaboration revenue from Gilead was 8.2 million USD, compared with 9.4 million USD in the same period of 2025, and the net loss attributable to common stockholders was 9.1 million USD 3. The company says its cash is projected to fund operations into 2028, which however depends on the progress of collaborations and further financing 3.
Segments
Recurrent genital herpes (HPI, with Gilead)
The HPI program, including candidates ABI-5366 and ABI-1179, has been licensed to Gilead. Phase 1b data reported a 94% reduction in HSV-2 shedding rate for the 350 mg weekly dose of 5366 and a 98% reduction for 1179 at 50 mg 1. Gilead controls development, and a Phase 2 study for 1179 is expected by the end of 2026 2.
Hepatitis delta and cholestatic liver disease (ABI-6250)
ABI-6250 is an oral entry inhibitor for HDV, with Phase 2 preparation ongoing and initiation expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company has extended the program to primary biliary cholangitis and primary sclerosing cholangitis, with Phase 2 initiation expected in the first quarter of 2027 2. Chronic toxicology studies have been completed 3.
Market context
Hepatitis B affects a large number of people globally, and the World Health Organization estimates that 254 million people were chronically infected in 2022 1. For recurrent genital herpes, current treatments are nucleoside analogs, and no new drug has been approved in the US or EU for more than 25 years 1. The market remains largely underserved, which could support interest in new therapies if clinical data hold up.
Hepatitis delta is considered the most severe form of hepatitis, and the recently approved treatments are available only in certain regions 1. This context of unmet medical need could favor candidates in development, but commercial success depends on later-stage results, regulatory approvals and market access conditions.
Trends
- Unmet need in genital herpestailwind
Current treatments are only partially effective, and many people do not receive consistent suppressive therapy. If new long-acting therapies show clinical benefit, they could address a clear need.
- Interest from large partners in antiviralsmixed
The Gilead agreement shows that major industry players are willing to invest in the company's antiviral programs. This trend can support candidate development, but it leaves the company dependent on the partner's decisions.
- Macroeconomic environment and tariffsheadwind
Geopolitical conflicts, tariffs and interest rate changes can affect access to capital and supply chains with CROs outside the US, including in China 1. A more difficult environment could make future financing harder.
- Stricter regulatory and clinical evidence requirementsmixed
Evidence requirements for approval remain extensive, and pivotal studies can take years 1. This could lengthen development timelines, although a clear regulatory path could reduce uncertainty.
Competitive position
The genital herpes market is dominated by three nucleoside analog antivirals approved in the US and EU4/UK 1. Gilead, the company's partner, could develop competing products if it considers them more promising or easier to commercialize 1. In hepatitis delta and hepatitis B, competition comes from other candidates in development, and the sources do not detail other competitors.
The sources reviewed explicitly name only Gilead Sciences as a partner and potential competitor. For other competitors, the information in the documents provided is insufficient, which limits the assessment of the company's relative position.
- Gilead SciencesGILD
Partner in the HPI agreement and holder of roughly 28 percent of the shares, with a right to acquire up to 35 percent 1. Could independently develop competing products.
- Makers of nucleoside analogs for herpes
Three approved antivirals in the US and EU4/UK form the current standard of care, and the sources do not identify their manufacturers 1.
- Approved therapies for hepatitis delta
The sources mention a recently approved therapy in the EU, Australia and Canada, without details on its manufacturer 1.
- Developers of anti-HBV candidates
The hepatitis B market lacks new mechanisms of action, but the sources do not identify specific competitors 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (amendment)14 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report13 Aug 2026
- Current report13 Aug 2026Acquisition or disposition of assets · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 May 2026Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement22 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Assembly Biosciences, Inc. · 19 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Assembly Biosciences, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Assembly Biosciences, Inc. · 07 May 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.