olivLaw · US equity research
Moody's Corporation MCO
Services-Consumer Credit Reporting, Collection Agencies · SIC 7320 · Vertical: Business services and software (SIC 73xx)
Moody's is a global risk assessment firm offering data, analytics, credit ratings and cloud solutions to banks, insurers and investors. As debt markets grow more complex, Moody's Analytics grows through recurring subscriptions, while ratings depend on issuance volume. Third-quarter 2026 total revenue reached 2,023 million USD and the workforce is about 16,000.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Moody's Corporation (MCO) stock was 528.34 USD (+4.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 91.1 bn USD, P/E 32.2 on diluted EPS of 16.41 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.76%, beta 0.90, 52-week range 412.23–539.61 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.0 bn USD (+0.8% YoY), net income of 734.0 m USD (+13.6% YoY), diluted EPS 4.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.3
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 450.38 – 515.39
- above the upper band · %B 1.20 · band width 13.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 477.53 / 466.51
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 10.16 / 5.46
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +17.9% | −1.1% | +19.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.2% | −0.5% | +9.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +17.8% | +4.4% | +13.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.4% | +12.3% | −8.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.4% | +13.5% | −5.2 pp | +1.4% |
| 3 years | +59.4% | +76.4% | −17.0 pp | +21.5% |
| 5 years | +36.5% | +63.7% | −27.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 497.0 m | 491.0 m | 489.0 m | 492.0 m | 501.0 m | 531.0 m | 518.0 m | 524.0 m |
| SG&A | 442.0 m | 439.0 m | 443.0 m | 453.0 m | 468.0 m | 477.0 m | 463.0 m | 442.0 m |
| Operating income | 561.0 m | 846.0 m | 818.0 m | 917.0 m | 770.0 m | 922.0 m | 1.0 bn | 906.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 113.0 m | 113.0 m | 120.0 m | 123.0 m | 124.0 m | 122.0 m | 126.0 m | 124.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 525.0 m | 804.0 m | 772.0 m | 867.0 m | 687.0 m | 870.0 m | 1.2 bn | 968.0 m |
| Income tax | 130.0 m | 179.0 m | 193.0 m | 220.0 m | 76.0 m | 209.0 m | 292.0 m | 232.0 m |
| Net income | 395.0 m | 625.0 m | 578.0 m | 646.0 m | 610.0 m | 661.0 m | 878.0 m | 734.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 2.17 ≈ | 3.46 | 3.21 | 3.60 | 3.41 ≈ | 3.73 | 5.03 | 4.24 |
| Operating cash flow | 674.0 m | 757.0 m | 543.0 m ≈ | 743.0 m ≈ | 858.0 m | 939.0 m | 779.0 m ≈ | 753.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 74.0 m | 85.0 m | 75.0 m ≈ | 85.0 m ≈ | 81.0 m | 95.0 m | 91.0 m ≈ | 85.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 155.0 m | 195.0 m | 171.0 m ≈ | 168.0 m ≈ | 167.0 m | 185.0 m | 180.0 m ≈ | 178.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 480.0 m | 373.0 m | 284.0 m ≈ | 513.0 m ≈ | 437.0 m | 1.5 bn | 694.0 m ≈ | 388.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 57 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 20.8, median 31.6, max 73.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.7% | +8.7% | +11.2% | +15.8% | −12.1% | +8.2% | +19.8% | +8.9% |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | +30.9% | +8.5% | +25.0% | +24.5% | −37.9% | +17.0% | +28.1% | +19.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.74 | 7.42 | 9.39 | 11.78 | 7.44 | 8.73 | 11.26 | 13.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +30.9% | +10.1% | +26.5% | +25.5% | −36.8% | +17.3% | +29.0% | +21.4% |
| net % | 29.5% | 29.4% | 33.1% | 35.6% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 29.0% | 31.9% |
| Free cash flow | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 7.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 4.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 15.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.66x
- Current ratio
- 1.74x
- ROE
- 62.0%
- ROA
- 15.7%
- FCF margin
- 33.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 3.9 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 5.1 bn ≈ | 5.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 220.0 m | 257.0 m | 331.0 m | 373.0 m | 431.0 m | 480.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.6 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 452.0 m | 541.0 m | 386.0 m | 327.0 m | 640.0 m | 668.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 9.39 | 11.78 | 7.44 | 8.73 | 11.26 | 13.67 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 189.3 m | 187.9 m | 184.7 m | 184.0 m | 182.7 m | 179.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.24 | 2.48 | 2.80 | 3.08 | 3.40 | 3.76 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 278.0 m | 347.0 m | 502.0 m | 603.0 m | 656.0 m | 722.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 12.4 bn | 14.7 bn | 14.3 bn | 14.6 bn | 15.5 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 39.0 m | 47.0 m | 52.0 m | 23.0 m | 53.0 m | 62.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 697.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 6.4 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 10.6 bn | 11.8 bn | 11.7 bn | 11.1 bn | 11.8 bn | 11.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 103.0 m | 139.0 m | 283.0 m | 271.0 m | 317.0 m | 326.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.0 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.1 bn | -2.6 bn | -262.0 m | -247.0 m | -1.1 bn | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -351.0 m | -122.0 m | -1.2 bn | -1.6 bn | -1.4 bn | -3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 420.0 m | 463.0 m | 515.0 m | 564.0 m | 620.0 m | 701.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 503.0 m | 750.0 m | 983.0 m | 490.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 91.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet40
- Valuation41
- Quality84
- Growth100
- Returns75
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 217.07 – 576.32 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA217.07 – 421.36 (Mid 327.60)18 companies used · median multiple 14.9x · quartiles 10.3x – 18.9xADBE, ADSK, APP, CPAY, CRM, CTSH, EBAY, EFX, GPN, MELI, MSCI, OMC, PYPL, SPGI, SUNB, UBER, URI, VRSK
- Peers: P/E343.62 – 576.32 (Mid 450.52)26 companies used · median multiple 27.5x · quartiles 20.9x – 35.1xACN, ADBE, ADP, ADSK, APP, CPAY, CRM, CTSH, EBAY, EFX, INTU, MA, MELI, MSCI, OMC, ORCL, PYPL, SPGI, SUNB, TWLO, UBER, URI, VEEV, VRSK, VRSN, WDAY
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate49.41 – 66.45 (Mid 56.68)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 32.1% | 75 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 35.3% | 85 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 103.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 12.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 22.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 40 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 32.2x | 47 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 23.3x | 35 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.3% | 41 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.1% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 23.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns75/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation41/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Moody’s Corporation (MCO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.9%; net margin 35.3%; ROE 79.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.3x.
The estimated value range is 280.34–498.84 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 389.06 USD, the price of 528.34 USD leaves a potential of -26.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -35.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 32.1%
- Net margin: 35.3%
- FCF conversion: 103.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 22.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 23.8%
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Business services and software (SIC 73xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 10.6 bn and 677.3 bn (within 8× of the company's); 569 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | 413.7 bn | 120.4 | 41.2% | 50.3% | +56.2% | +2% / +756% |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | 374.1 bn | 19.3 | 41.6% | 26.4% | +17.3% | −39% / +6% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | 246.8 bn | 1,120.4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | +21.7% | +89% / +307% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | 186.9 bn | 20.7 | 19.4% | 22.0% | +9.6% | −1% / −10% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | 142.7 bn | 41.3 | 12.4% | 6.1% | +18.3% | −20% / +24% |
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | 139.6 bn | 28.6 | 18.9% | 29.0% | +7.9% | +2% / +22% |
| ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc. | 119.8 bn | 27.7 | 77.0% | 20.1% | +6.7% | +19% / +32% |
| NOWServicenow, Inc. | 112.9 bn | 78.1 | 11.8% | 9.4% | +20.9% | −33% / −21% |
| SNOWSnowflake Inc. | 102.5 bn | — | -48.2% | -20.1% | +29.2% | +16% / +55% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | 96.7 bn | 13.9 | 61.9% | 28.0% | +10.5% | −22% / −59% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | 95.3 bn | 21.7 | 23.6% | 21.3% | +13.9% | −44% / −38% |
| MCOMoody’s Corporation | 91.1 bn | 32.2 | 79.8% | 35.3% | +8.9% | +8% / +59% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | 90.4 bn | 65.5 | 22.9% | 22.5% | +14.1% | +6% / +21% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | 90.0 bn | 18.3 | 210.1% | 65.9% | +70.0% | −55% / +625% |
| SNPSSynopsys Inc | 88.7 bn | 81.8 | 3.7% | 11.4% | +15.1% | +11% / −15% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 88.2 bn | 47.3 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −16% / +7% |
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | 69.6 bn | 24.4 | 30.6% | 16.3% | +4.9% | +38% / +136% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | 56.4 bn | 35.0 | 53.9% | 21.1% | +17.5% | −11% / +24% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.9 bn | 27.2 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +51% / +205% |
| VEEVVeeva Systems Inc. | 50.3 bn | 50.8 | 14.4% | 29.3% | +16.3% | +29% / +78% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 50.0 bn | 11.5 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −4% / +4% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 48.2 bn | 35.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +20% / +29% |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | 44.4 bn | 40.9 | 16.0% | 12.3% | +13.1% | −6% / −25% |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | 39.1 bn | — | -9.0% | -4.8% | +18.2% | −15% / +32% |
| ZSZscaler Inc | 36.6 bn | — | -2.9% | -1.9% | +25.4% | −11% / +14% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MCO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 342.84 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 604.04 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 907.01 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 386.04 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 760.07 Total return 47% · Per year 14% | 1,245.31 Total return 139% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 434.68 Total return -14% · Per year -3% | 956.39 Total return 87% · Per year 13% | 1,709.77 Total return 231% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 190.02
- Net margin± 133.01
- Annual revenue growth± 101.70
- Annual dilution± 11.18
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Moody's is a global risk assessment firm offering data, analytics, credit ratings and cloud solutions to banks, insurers and investors. As debt markets grow more complex, Moody's Analytics grows through recurring subscriptions, while ratings depend on issuance volume. Third-quarter 2026 total revenue reached 2,023 million USD 2 and the workforce is about 16,000 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The proprietary database and validated analytical models are hard to replicate and support client confidence 1.
- High recurring revenue in MA and long-term subscriptions with good client retention 13.
- High operating margin in MIS and solid cash generation, with capital returned to shareholders through repurchases 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Rating regulationhigh
The legal framework in the US, EU and UK is complex and changing, and new rules could alter the MIS business model 1.
- Cyclicality of issuancehigh
Debt issuance volume can drop sharply, affecting MIS transaction revenue 3.
- Legal liabilitymedium
Ratings can give rise to investor lawsuits, and defence costs could rise 1.
- Data protectionmedium
Products using personal data are subject to strict rules, and breaches could lead to sanctions 1.
- Technology costslow
Investment in AI and infrastructure can raise operating costs faster than revenue 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Delivery of full-year Adjusted Diluted EPS and Free Cash Flow guidance2026
- Trend in leveraged finance and investment grade issuanceQ1 2027
- ARR growth in Decision Solutionsnext 10-K
- Effect of new EU and UK rules on rating agencies2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Moody's reports two segments: Moody's Analytics (MA), which provides research, data and decision solutions, and Moody's Investors Service (MIS), which publishes credit ratings and assessment services for debt obligations and issuing entities 1. The company describes its strategy as combining proprietary data, validated analytical models and integration of intelligence into customer workflows 1. In the quarter ended 30 September 2026, MCO revenue was 2,023 million USD, up 1% year-over-year 2.
The company has also expanded through organic investment, acquisitions and partnerships, including products built on generative and agentic AI 1. The divestiture of MA Regulatory Solutions produced a non-operating gain in 2026, which affects comparability of results 2.
Market context
The company operates in the global market for credit ratings, financial data and risk analysis, where it competes with other rating agencies and data providers. Demand depends on debt capital markets activity, including private credit and AI-related financing 1. The company cites the health of major economies and the expansion of the market for integrated data and analytics as growth factors 1.
Regulation of credit rating agencies in the US, EU and UK is strict and could change the business model of rating agencies 1. Data regulation may also affect MA products 1.
Trends
- AI-related issuancetailwind
Financing linked to AI and data centres supported MIS investment grade and project finance revenue 3. If this activity keeps its pace, it could offset weakness in leveraged finance.
- Volatility and leveraged financeheadwind
Higher market volatility reduced leveraged finance issuance, which fell sharply in Q3 2026 3. A harder environment could keep pressure on transaction revenue.
- Shift to recurring revenuemixed
Growth in MA subscriptions and ARR reduces dependence on issuance volume, but transaction revenue still dominates MIS 3. The net effect depends on the balance between the two segments.
- Regulation and pricing pressureheadwind
Regulation could limit pricing models and raise compliance costs, which could affect margins 1. The concrete effect depends on final rules in each jurisdiction.
Competitive position
The company competes with other rating agencies and with providers of financial data and risk analysis. The analysed sources do not explicitly name competitors, so they cannot be identified with certainty from these texts 1. European and UK rules on rating agencies could increase competition in ratings 1.
In data and solutions, competition depends on the quality of proprietary data and on integration into client workflows, advantages the company explicitly cites 1. Presence in emerging markets and strategic partnerships are also differentiating factors 1.
- Other credit rating agencies
Competitors in ratings, especially in regulated EU and UK markets, within the framework the company describes 1.
- Financial data and analytics providers
Competitors in data and research, where access to proprietary data is a key advantage 1.
- KYC and compliance solution providers
Competitors in the verification and compliance area of Decision Solutions 1.
- Artificial intelligence platforms
Providers that could offer alternatives to the company's analytical products if AI integration becomes standard 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Why Florida Republicans are "white-knuckled" about TuesdayAxios · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Cum face față Binance urmărilor atacului cibernetic de 6,3 miliarde de dolari? - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody's sees positive shift in Japan's growth, resilience remains key testCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Акции Европы начали неделю в плюсеInterfax Russia (RU) · 27 Oct 2026 · RU
- Bolojan, atac la Grindeanu: Își asumă rolul unui premier de facto. Știe diferența dintre deficitul trimestrial și cel anual? - BihoreanulSurge — Google News · 26 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody's оставило кредитный рейтинг Франции на уровне "Aa3" с "негативным" прогнозомInterfax Russia (RU) · 26 Oct 2026 · RU
- Bolojan: Observ că domnul Grindeanu îşi asumă rolul unui premier de facto, anunţând activităţi şi stabilind, practic, agenda domnului Niculescu/ Ce asemănări vede între „un deficit de etapă, trimestrial” şi „cutiile de pantofi” - News.roSurge — Google News · 26 Oct 2026 · RO
- Bank of Israel Forecasts 5.6% Growth, but Without Israeli Companies' Output Abroad, Growth Is 3.4% - Ziarul BursaBURSA.ro · 25 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody's dă Franței „un scurt răgaz”, nu „vot de încredere”. Agenția menține ratingul Aa3 al țării, dar cu perspectivă negativăAntena 3 CNN · 24 Oct 2026 · RO
- INEDIT Marco Rubio îi îndeamnă pe cubanezi să colaboreze "discret" cu CIA - Profit.roProfit.ro · 24 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody's grațiază deocamdată ratingul FranțeiProfit.ro · 24 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody's holds steady on France's credit rating as country grapples with turmoil and higher yieldsCNBC — Top News · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Guvernul Niculescu a trecut de Parlament cu 280 de voturi. Moody's spune că noul Executiv lasă timp pentru bugetul pe 2027, dar agenţia a revizuit prognoza şi anticipează o contracţie a PIB de 0,5% în 2026Ziarul Financiar · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody’s says Romania can bring down its budget deficit, but a major test lies ahead. What’s next for its credit rating? - Spotmedia.roSpotMedia.ro · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody's: Fiscal policy continuity and timely adoption of 2027 budget support Romania's fiscal consolidation - StiripesurseSurge — Google News · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Ce mesaj a dat agenția Moody's înainte de votul din Parlament pentru Guvernul Luca Niculescu. Nazare: Bugetul pe 2027, un test majorAntena 3 CNN · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moody's, mesaj către România privind noul Guvern: Componența propusă favorizează reținere la cheltuieli. Pe termen mediu, nu este eliminat riscul unei noi crize politice. Menținerea lui Nazare la Finanțe asigură continuitatea politicii fiscaleProfit.ro · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- We have government: political crisis ends, budget gap remains - Ziarul BursaBURSA.ro · 19 Oct 2026 · RO
- Bolojan's Fiscal Policy Had Serious Justifications: Higher Taxes Reduced the Deficit and the Risk of a Credit Downgrade, but Came at the Cost of Foreign Investment - Ziarul BursaBURSA.ro · 17 Oct 2026 · RO
- European datacenter boom threatens higher energy bills unless governments interveneThe Register · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report21 Oct 2026
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)15 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report12 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
- Current report22 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Apr 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report15 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Moody's Corporation · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Moody's Corporation · 21 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Moody's Corporation · 21 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.