olivLaw · US equity research
Arcus Biosciences, Inc. RCUS
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Arcus Biosciences is a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing small molecules for cancer and inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Its most advanced product, casdatifan, is in Phase 3 studies, while the company reported a net loss of 353 million USD in fiscal 2025 and holds 1.0 billion USD to fund its plans.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS) stock was 19.31 USD (+2.12% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.8 bn USD, beta 1.47, 52-week range 17.76–31.57 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 9.0 m USD (−65.4% YoY), net income of -128.0 m USD, diluted EPS -1.00 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 15.84 – 25.42
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 46.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 24.26 / 24.62
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.76 / -1.82
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −21.9% | −1.1% | −20.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −30.3% | −0.5% | −29.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −25.7% | +4.4% | −30.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −19.0% | +12.3% | −31.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.6% | +13.5% | −16.2 pp | +8.9% |
| 3 years | +18.0% | +76.4% | −58.5 pp | +15.7% |
| 5 years | −44.7% | +63.7% | −108.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26.0 m | 28.0 m | 160.0 m | 26.0 m | 33.0 m | 17.0 m | 41.0 m | 9.0 m |
| Research & development | 101.0 m | 122.0 m | 139.0 m | 141.0 m | 121.0 m | 122.0 m | 113.0 m | 117.0 m |
| Operating income | -103.0 m | -122.0 m | -8.0 m | -142.0 m | -114.0 m | -134.0 m | -96.0 m | -131.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | 2.0 m ≈ | 2.0 m ≈ | 3.0 m | 2.0 m | 3.0 m ≈ | 2.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 2.0 m | 1.0 m | 2.0 m | 3.0 m | 2.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -93.0 m | -112.0 m | 0 | -135.0 m | -106.0 m | -128.0 m | -91.0 m | -128.0 m |
| Income tax | 1.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net income | -94.0 m | -112.0 m | 0 | -135.0 m | -106.0 m | -128.0 m | -91.0 m | -128.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.03 ≈ | -1.14 | 0.00 | -1.27 | -0.90 ≈ | -1.02 | -0.72 | -1.00 |
| Operating cash flow | -100.0 m | -132.0 m | -133.0 m ≈ | -97.0 m ≈ | -120.0 m | -138.0 m | -119.0 m ≈ | -88.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 1.0 m | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | ⚠ 2020 | 2021 | ⚠ 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.4 m | 15.0 m | 78.0 m | 383.0 m | 112.0 m | 117.0 m | 258.0 m | 247.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | +491.2% | +79.6% | — | +391.0% | — | +4.5% | +120.5% | −4.3% |
| Net income | -49.6 m | -84.7 m | -123.0 m | 53.0 m | -267.0 m | -307.0 m | -283.0 m | -353.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | — | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -1.93 | -2.24 | 0.71 | -3.71 | -4.15 | -3.14 | -3.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | — | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -593.7% | -564.7% | -157.7% | 13.8% | -238.4% | -262.4% | -109.7% | -142.9% |
| Free cash flow | -46.7 m | -75.4 m | 108.0 m | -282.0 m | 432.0 m | -330.0 m | -176.0 m | -484.0 m |
The series breaks before 2020, 2022: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 222.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 99.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -123.0 m USD
- Equity
- 631.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.16x
- Current ratio
- 4.36x
- ROE
- -63.3%
- ROA
- -30.8%
- FCF margin
- -196.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 78.0 m | 383.0 m | 112.0 m | 117.0 m | 258.0 m | 247.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 159.0 m | 257.0 m | 288.0 m | 340.0 m | 448.0 m | 523.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -124.0 m | 54.0 m | -280.0 m | -340.0 m | -330.0 m | -386.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.0 m | 4.0 m | 6.0 m | 8.0 m | 10.0 m | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -121.0 m ≈ | 58.0 m ≈ | -274.0 m ≈ | -332.0 m ≈ | -320.0 m ≈ | -376.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 2.0 m | 2.0 m | 4.0 m | 8.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -123.0 m | 55.0 m | -266.0 m | -301.0 m | -282.0 m | -353.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 2.0 m | 1.0 m | 6.0 m | 1.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -123.0 m | 53.0 m | -267.0 m | -307.0 m | -283.0 m | -353.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.24 | 0.71 | -3.71 | -4.15 | -3.14 | -3.29 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 54.8 m | 74.0 m | 72.0 m | 74.0 m | 90.1 m | 107.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 173.4 m | 148.0 m | 206.0 m | 127.0 m | 150.0 m | 222.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 735.8 m | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 831.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 10.8 m | 32.0 m | 35.0 m | 51.0 m | 47.0 m | 40.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 772.3 m | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 15.7 m | 10.0 m | 20.0 m | 17.0 m | 18.0 m | 42.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 0 | 48.0 m | 99.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 121.7 m | 166.0 m | 193.0 m | 184.0 m | 226.0 m | 231.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 270.0 m | 750.4 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2022verified |
| Equity | 502.0 m † | 842.0 m † | 657.0 m † | 462.0 m † | 485.0 m † | 631.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 111.0 m | -256.0 m | 438.0 m | -306.0 m | -170.0 m | -482.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.0 m | 26.0 m | 6.0 m | 24.0 m | 6.0 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 108.0 m ≈ | -282.0 m ≈ | 432.0 m ≈ | -330.0 m ≈ | -176.0 m ≈ | -484.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -434.0 m | -4.0 m | -413.0 m | 194.0 m | -84.0 m | 66.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 439.0 m | 237.0 m | 33.0 m | 33.0 m | 277.0 m | 488.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -131.9% | 8 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -453.0% | 14 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 30.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -43.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -16.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality10/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 247.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -4.3%; net margin -453.0%; ROE -114.1%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 30.2%
- Current ratio: 3.3x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -131.9%
- Net margin: -453.0%
- Interest coverage: -43.2x
- FCF yield: -16.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,334.0 bn | 46.0 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +32% / +140% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 665.2 bn | 41.9 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +34% / +79% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 558.4 bn | 869.9 | 14.7% | 10.7% | +40.2% | +11% / +102% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 521.1 bn | 50.7 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +29% / +107% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 370.7 bn | 154.7 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +43% / +47% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 200.1 bn | 43.0 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −10% / +11% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 175.5 bn | 43.9 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +20% / +1% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 139.2 bn | 35.3 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +27% / +55% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 131.2 bn | 14.2 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +30% / +30% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.4 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +56% / +326% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 36.9 bn | 14.7 | 64.4% | 27.5% | +2.3% | −30% / −50% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 27.6 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +84% / +300% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 26.2 bn | 47.7 | 6.9% | 25.7% | +5.1% | +69% / +150% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 25.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.1% | 38.6% | +10.6% | +25% / +154% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 24.1 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −47% / +340% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 22.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +80% / +109% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.6 bn | 8.1 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −64% / −4% |
| ORKAOruka Therapeutics, Inc. | 6.7 bn | — | -18.2% | — | unavailable | +237% / +364% |
| RCUSArcus Biosciences, Inc. | 2.8 bn | — | -114.1% | -453.0% | −4.3% | −3% / +18% |
| HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 11.4 | 18.7% | 18.1% | +21.5% | −2% / +18% |
| OMEROmeros Corp | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | — | — | −34.0% | +88% / +730% |
| VSTMVerastem, Inc. | 892.0 m | — | -471.2% | -231.6% | +209.1% | −7% / +43% |
| COLLCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. | 770.6 m | 19.1 | 17.6% | 5.9% | +23.6% | −49% / −8% |
| IBOImpact BioMedical, INC. | 442.1 m | 560.3 | 371.3% | 2,254.3% | unavailable | −27% / unavailable |
| KMDAKamada Ltd | 428.0 m | 21.2 | 7.6% | 11.2% | +12.1% | +11% / +57% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RCUS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (21 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Arcus Biosciences is a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing small molecules for cancer and inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Its most advanced product, casdatifan, is in Phase 3 studies, while the company reported a net loss of 353 million USD 1 in fiscal 2025 and holds 1.0 billion USD 1 to fund its plans.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a portfolio of small molecules in advanced clinical stages and an oncology program with favourable comparative data against belzutifan 1.
- Partnerships with several large companies provide financial support and access to diverse therapeutic combinations 12.
- The company solely owns casdatifan outside the territories licensed to Taiho, which keeps control over its main program 1.
Weaknesses
- The company has no approved products and no product sales revenue, which makes its reliance on external funding very high 1.
- Repeated net losses and a growing accumulated deficit raise questions about its ability to become profitable over the long term 1.
- Several important programs, including anti-TIGIT studies, were stopped for futility, showing the fragility of the portfolio 12.
Opportunities
- If the PEAK-1 and TKI-free studies confirm casdatifan's efficacy, the company could access large oncology markets 1.
- Oral inflammation programs could open a new growth phase if the first candidate enters the clinic in 2026 1.
- New collaborations for casdatifan with several partners could widen the range of indications and combinations tested 2.
Threats
- Negative study results, as with anti-TIGIT, could reduce the value of several programs at once 2.
- Competition in renal oncology and anti-inflammatory therapies is intense, and competitors with approved products have a clear advantage 1.
- Safety risks, such as the immune-mediated events seen in the volrustomig study, could delay or halt important programs 1.
Risks
- No product revenuehigh
The company has no approved products and does not expect product sales revenue for the foreseeable future, which depends on clinical success and regulatory approvals 1.
- Need for additional fundinghigh
If the company cannot raise capital when needed, it could be forced to reduce or stop development programs 1.
- Restrictions in the loan agreementmedium
The Hercules agreement limits debt, investments and dividends, and an event of default could accelerate repayment 1.
- Clinical trial failureshigh
Stopping studies for lack of efficacy shows results can be negative, and the remaining programs could meet the same fate 2.
- Dependence on partnersmedium
Gilead and Taiho hold important rights to programs, and changes in their decisions could alter timelines and project value 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the PEAK-1 study confirms casdatifan's advantages over belzutifan, the company could hold an important position in renal cancer treatment 1.
- Recent collaborations with several partners could expand testing of casdatifan and bring resources without fully diluting the company's control 2.
- If the first inflammation candidate enters the clinic, the program could open a new growth direction beyond oncology 1.
What would break the thesis
- The company has no approved products and continuing net losses could force new share issuances or programme cuts 1.
- The discontinuation of several anti-TIGIT studies shows results can disappoint, and casdatifan could face similar difficulties 2.
- If Gilead and other partners reduce their involvement, the company could face higher costs and fewer funding sources 2.
What to watch
- Results of the PEAK-1 study of casdatifan in renal cell carcinoma2027
- Results of the PRISM-1 study of quemliclustat in pancreatic cancerfirst half of 2027
- Entry of the first inflammation development candidate into the clinic2026
- Evolution of liquidity and the terms of the loan agreementnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (21 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Arcus Biosciences describes itself as a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on differentiated molecules for patients with cancer and inflammatory and autoimmune diseases 1. It has not generated revenue from product sales, its revenue coming from upfront and milestone payments, R&D support and reimbursements from strategic partners 1. Its stated goal is to use internal small-molecule discovery to develop therapies with a meaningful impact on patients 1.
Segments
Inflammation and immunology
The inflammation programs include five research and preclinical efforts directed at MRGPRX2, TNF, CCR6, CD89 and CD40 ligand, with the company expecting to advance a first development candidate into the clinic in 2026 1. The stated aim is to replace injectable biologics with oral small molecules, particularly in chronic spontaneous urticaria and atopic dermatitis 1.
Market context
The company operates in the oral renal cell carcinoma market, where approval of belzutifan has validated the HIF-2α target 1. Casdatifan is designed for greater efficacy, and the company estimates potential global peak sales above 2 billion USD 1 for the PEAK-1 setting and above 3 billion USD 1 for the TKI-free first-line setting.
In inflammation, the company targets areas it describes as multi-billion dollar opportunities, such as chronic spontaneous urticaria and atopic dermatitis, where MRGPRX2 and TNF inhibition could displace injectable treatments 1. The timing and outcome of these programs depend on clinical success, which remains uncertain.
Trends
- Shift to oral therapies in immunologytailwind
Developing oral small molecules to replace injectable biologics in inflammatory diseases could open large markets if clinical studies confirm efficacy.
- Setbacks in anti-TIGIT combinationsheadwind
The discontinuation of several Phase 3 studies with domvanalimab suggests the anti-TIGIT combination strategy may not succeed, which could reduce the value of some programs.
- Collaborations with other antibody developersmixed
Recent agreements with Bristol Myers Squibb, Summit Therapeutics and AVEO widen testing of casdatifan in combinations but may dilute control over the program.
- Pressure on funding and debtheadwind
Large net losses and a loan agreement with restrictive terms could make access to capital harder if studies are delayed.
Competitive position
In the HIF-2α space, Merck's belzutifan is the only approved inhibitor and the main reference point for casdatifan 1. In oncology, companies developing PD-1, PD-L1 or VEGF antibodies compete for the same treatment settings, while in inflammation the competition comes from established injectable biologics 12.
The company notes that few other small-molecule TNF inhibitors are in development, which could give an advantage if its program reaches the clinic 1. Any advantage, however, depends on future study results.
- Merck & Co., Inc.MRK
Maker of belzutifan, the only approved HIF-2α inhibitor and the main reference point for casdatifan.
- Gilead Sciences, Inc.GILD
Strategic partner with rights to several programs and a significant shareholder in the company.
- AstraZeneca plc
Partner in studies with volrustomig and durvalumab, which compete with the dual PD-1 and CTLA-4 therapies the company is testing.
- Summit Therapeutics
Developer of ivonescimab, a PD-1/VEGF antibody tested with casdatifan and also a potential competitor in oncology.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Arcus Weighs £2 Billion Sale of Workdry InternationalBloomberg Markets · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 24 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations
- Current report20 Oct 2026Other events
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Arcus Biosciences, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Arcus Biosciences, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.