olivLaw · US equity research
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. SUPN
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a US biopharmaceutical company developing and selling treatments for central nervous system disorders, from ADHD to postpartum depression and epilepsy. It grew through the Sage Therapeutics acquisition completed in July 2025 and, per its latest filings, has agreed a merger of equals with Indivior, where Qelbree made up 49% of net revenues in 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) stock was 28.21 USD (+0.21% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn USD, beta 0.53, 52-week range 28.15–56.32 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 226.8 m USD (+18.0% YoY), net income of 20.9 m USD, diluted EPS 0.35 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 21.0
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 30.52 – 47.32
- below the lower band · %B -0.14 · band width 43.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 41.44 / 46.97
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.81 / -1.57
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −34.0% | −1.1% | −32.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −39.9% | −0.5% | −39.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −45.2% | +4.4% | −49.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −43.2% | +12.3% | −55.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −50.5% | +13.5% | −64.1 pp | −9.2% |
| 3 years | +15.2% | +76.4% | −61.2 pp | +50.7% |
| 5 years | −12.4% | +63.7% | −76.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 174.2 m | 149.8 m | 165.5 m | 192.1 m | 211.6 m | 207.7 m | 219.1 m | 226.8 m |
| Cost of revenue | 26.1 m | 15.8 m | 16.8 m | 19.0 m | 23.0 m | 23.4 m | 33.7 m | 27.0 m |
| Research & development | 28.6 m | 26.9 m | 22.1 m | 29.4 m | 27.8 m | 39.4 m | 29.5 m | 25.8 m |
| SG&A | 79.4 m | 89.9 m | 93.6 m | 179.7 m | 122.4 m | 125.2 m | 133.6 m | 128.1 m |
| Operating income | 21.4 m | -10.3 m | 12.1 m | -60.2 m | -3.9 m | -8.3 m | -58.0 m | 21.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 18.8 m | 20.4 m | 500.0 k | 500.0 k | 25.0 m | 26.1 m | 400.0 k | 400.0 k |
| Interest expense | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2.3 m | 718.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 26.4 m | -5.8 m | 16.7 m | -58.0 m | -1.9 m | -6.0 m | -57.6 m | 22.7 m |
| Income tax | 11.1 m | 6.0 m | -5.8 m | -12.8 m | 2.2 m | -3.7 m | 723.0 k | 1.8 m |
| Net income | 15.3 m | -11.8 m | 22.5 m | -45.1 m | -4.1 m | -2.3 m | -58.4 m | 20.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.27 ≈ | -0.21 | 0.40 | -0.80 | -0.07 ≈ | -0.04 | -1.01 | 0.35 |
| Operating cash flow | 44.4 m | 30.6 m | 58.5 m ≈ | -61.7 m ≈ | 19.9 m | 66.5 m | -4.8 m ≈ | 6.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 213.0 k | 327.0 k | 455.0 k ≈ | 129.0 k ≈ | 427.0 k | 0 | 568.0 k ≈ | 230.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 408.9 m | 392.8 m | 520.4 m | 579.8 m | 667.2 m | 607.5 m | 661.8 m | 719.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | +35.3% | −3.9% | +32.5% | +11.4% | +15.1% | −8.9% | +8.9% | +8.6% |
| Net income | 111.0 m | 113.1 m | 127.0 m | 53.4 m | 60.7 m | 1.3 m | 73.9 m | -38.6 m |
| Net income YoY | +93.8% | +1.9% | +12.3% | −57.9% | +13.6% | −97.8% | +5,512.8% | −152.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.36 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 0.02 | 1.32 | -0.68 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +89.8% | +2.4% | +12.4% | −58.5% | +6.1% | −98.1% | +6,500.0% | −151.5% |
| net % | 27.1% | 28.8% | 24.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 0.2% | 11.2% | -5.4% |
| Free cash flow | 128.1 m | 140.4 m | 135.0 m | unavailable | 116.4 m | 110.5 m | 171.2 m | 46.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 128.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.90x
- ROE
- -3.7%
- ROA
- -2.7%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 520.4 m | 579.8 m | 667.2 m | 607.5 m | 661.8 m | 719.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 52.5 m | 75.1 m | 87.2 m | 83.8 m | 77.9 m | 74.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 467.9 m ≈ | 504.7 m ≈ | 580.0 m ≈ | 523.7 m ≈ | 583.9 m ≈ | 644.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Research & development | 76.0 m | 90.5 m | 74.6 m | 91.6 m | 108.8 m | 106.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 200.7 m | 304.8 m | 377.2 m | 336.4 m | 321.6 m | 485.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 173.7 m | 86.0 m | 46.1 m | -5.3 m | 81.7 m | -62.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 18.1 m | 32.6 m | 85.5 m | 84.9 m | 80.4 m | 91.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 191.8 m ≈ | 118.6 m ≈ | 131.7 m ≈ | 79.6 m ≈ | 162.1 m ≈ | 29.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 19.4 m | 19.7 m | 7.1 m | 2.4 m | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 168.6 m | 73.2 m | 60.7 m | 2.8 m | 97.9 m | -49.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 41.7 m | 19.8 m | 32.0 k | 1.5 m | 24.0 m | -10.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 127.0 m | 53.4 m | 60.7 m | 1.3 m | 73.9 m | -38.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.36 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 0.02 | 1.32 | -0.68 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 53.7 m | 54.4 m | 61.7 m | 55.5 m | 56.0 m | 56.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 288.6 m | 203.4 m | 93.1 m | 75.1 m | 69.3 m | 128.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 140.9 m | 148.9 m | 165.5 m | 144.2 m | 142.1 m | 187.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 48.3 m | 86.0 m | 91.5 m | 77.4 m | 54.3 m | 112.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 630.4 m | 601.6 m | 734.2 m | 493.1 m | 686.1 m | 644.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 37.8 m | 17.0 m | 15.2 m | 13.5 m | 11.5 m | 10.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 77.9 m | 117.5 m | 117.0 m | 117.0 m | 117.0 m | 124.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 364.3 m | 784.7 m | 702.5 m | 599.9 m | 521.9 m | 569.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 6.1 m | 9.3 m | 10.5 m | 2.0 m | 4.6 m | 2.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Aug 2022verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 379.3 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Aug 2022verified |
| Current liabilities | 245.1 m | 315.4 m | 688.0 m | 290.2 m | 292.4 m | 338.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 759.2 m | 873.3 m | 816.3 m | 356.2 m | 332.3 m | 390.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 744.9 m † | 815.9 m † | 886.2 m † | 921.5 m † | 1.0 bn † | 1.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 138.4 m | 127.1 m | 116.8 m | 111.1 m | 172.0 m | 47.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.4 m | — | 412.0 k | 551.0 k | 725.0 k | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 135.0 m ≈ | — | 116.4 m ≈ | 110.5 m ≈ | 171.2 m ≈ | 46.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -34.7 m | -81.9 m | -216.7 m | 268.7 m | -189.9 m | 4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 3.6 m | -130.4 m | -10.5 m | -397.9 m | 12.2 m | 9.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -5.1% | 44 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.5% | 21 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -16.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.3% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial21/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial44/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial66/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (SUPN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 719.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.6%; net margin -5.1%; ROE -4.2%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.5x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.5%
- Interest coverage: -16.2x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,334.0 bn | 46.0 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +32% / +140% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 665.2 bn | 41.9 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +34% / +79% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 558.4 bn | 869.9 | 14.7% | 10.7% | +40.2% | +11% / +102% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 521.1 bn | 50.7 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +29% / +107% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 370.7 bn | 154.7 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +43% / +47% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 200.1 bn | 43.0 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −10% / +11% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 175.5 bn | 43.9 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +20% / +1% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 139.2 bn | 35.3 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +27% / +55% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 131.2 bn | 14.2 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +30% / +30% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.4 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +56% / +326% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 36.9 bn | 14.7 | 64.4% | 27.5% | +2.3% | −30% / −50% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 27.6 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +84% / +300% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 26.2 bn | 47.7 | 6.9% | 25.7% | +5.1% | +69% / +150% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 25.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.1% | 38.6% | +10.6% | +25% / +154% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 24.1 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −47% / +340% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 22.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +80% / +109% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.6 bn | 8.1 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −64% / −4% |
| ORKAOruka Therapeutics, Inc. | 6.7 bn | — | -18.2% | — | unavailable | +237% / +364% |
| IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 6.7 bn | — | -105.5% | -64.7% | +33.8% | −51% / −19% |
| IDYAIDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. | 3.1 bn | — | -38.5% | -1,149.6% | +3,024.4% | −9% / +3% |
| RADXRadiopharm Theranostics Limited | 3.1 bn | — | -109.2% | -1,055.3% | +1,114.3% | −81% / unavailable |
| AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 2.3 bn | 7.5 | 61.4% | 97.7% | +20.4% | +6% / +98% |
| SUPNSupernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 1.6 bn | — | -4.2% | -5.1% | +8.6% | −51% / +15% |
| QUREuniQure N.V. | 1.6 bn | — | -89.0% | -1,154.8% | −40.6% | −16% / +240% |
| URGNUroGen Pharma Ltd. | 1.4 bn | — | — | -26.3% | +21.4% | −0% / +118% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SUPN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a US biopharmaceutical company developing and selling treatments for central nervous system disorders, from ADHD to postpartum depression and epilepsy. It grew through the Sage Therapeutics acquisition completed in July 2025 and, per its latest filings, has agreed a merger of equals with Indivior, where Qelbree made up 49% of net revenues in 2025 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- A diversified neurology and psychiatry portfolio, with products approved for several indications and a clear base of institutional customers.
- A dedicated sales force across specialized segments that supports growth of key US products.
- The Sage acquisition added a commercial product and partnerships with Biogen and Shionogi, which share international risk.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on a few US products makes revenue sensitive to changes in prescriptions or payor coverage.
- Supply constraints for ONAPGO led to paused deliveries and a negative revenue impact in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Opportunities
- International approvals for zuranolone and expansion into depression could open new revenue sources.
- The Indivior merger could offer scale benefits and access to a broader portfolio, if integration succeeds.
Threats
- Generics for key products, such as XADAGO, could significantly reduce sales if they enter the market earlier than expected.
- Competition in ADHD could increase with new approvals, potentially pressuring prices and market share.
- Changes in healthcare regulation and reimbursement policies could limit patient access to products.
Risks
- Dependence on key US productshigh
Revenue depends heavily on a few products, and safety, supply or competition problems could significantly affect profit.
- Generics and loss of exclusivityhigh
Generics for several products already exist or are planned, and their earlier entry could reduce revenue.
- ONAPGO supplymedium
Supply constraints led to paused deliveries, and a second supplier is not expected until 2027, which could limit growth.
- Merger integration riskmedium
The Indivior merger depends on regulatory approvals and integrating two organizations, which could delay benefits if problems arise.
- Clinical trial failuremedium
Candidates in development may not demonstrate the required safety and efficacy, which could delay or block launches.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If ZURZUVAE and other new products grow sales, revenue could become more diversified and less dependent on a single product.
- The Indivior merger could create a larger company with access to more markets, if synergies are achieved.
- International approvals for zuranolone could open revenue outside the US through existing partners.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on a few products and the arrival of generics could significantly reduce revenue in the coming years.
- Supply problems and clinical trial failures could delay growth and raise costs.
- Integrating the Indivior merger could prove more complex than expected, and benefits could be smaller.
What to watch
- Third quarter 2026 results and guidance, announced on October 29, 2026Q3 2026
- Progress of the Indivior merger and regulatory approvals2026
- ONAPGO deliveries and entry of the second supplier2027
- Timing of generic entry for XADAGO and its effect on sales2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Supernus is a biopharmaceutical company focused on CNS diseases, with products for ADHD, dyskinesia and hypomobility in Parkinson's disease, postpartum depression, epilepsy, migraine, cervical dystonia and chronic sialorrhea 1. The company is listed on NASDAQ as SUPN and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland 1. Its strategy combines driving growth of current US products, advancing candidates and expanding the pipeline through internal research or acquisitions 1.
The Sage Therapeutics acquisition, completed on July 31, 2025, brought ZURZUVAE, an oral treatment for postpartum depression co-commercialized with Biogen, which has since received approvals in Europe, the UK and Canada 1. In August 2026 the company agreed a merger with Indivior, after which the combined company will be renamed Supernus, Inc. and continue trading as SUPN 2. The fixed exchange ratio means the value received by shareholders may vary with both companies' share prices 2.
Segments
ADHD and neurology (Qelbree)
Qelbree is a once-daily non-stimulant approved for ADHD in children and adults, and was the company's largest product in 2025 1. The ADHD market is increasingly competitive, with stimulants, non-stimulants and generics 1.
Market context
The targeted markets are specialized segments of the pharmaceutical industry with many large competitors, universities and research organizations 1. ADHD affects a notable share of US school-age children and adults, while Parkinson's is the second most common progressive neurodegenerative disorder 1.
Revenue depends on physician prescriptions, payor coverage and the ability to compete with generics; if market acceptance of products declines, the impact on revenue could be significant 1. These conditions are described as risks, not certain outcomes 1.
Trends
- Generics for existing productsheadwind
Generics of Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR are already on the market, and generics for XADAGO are permitted from December 2027 1. If these trends accelerate, revenue from existing products could decline.
- Expansion in depression and new treatmentstailwind
ZURZUVAE has received approvals in Europe, the UK and Canada, and partner Shionogi obtained approval for zuranolone for major depressive disorder in Japan 1. If these approvals translate into sales, they could offset pressure in other segments.
- Competition in ADHDheadwind
The launch of new products, such as centanafadine, for which an NDA was filed with the FDA, could increase competition in the ADHD market 1. The company expects competition to intensify as new products are developed 1.
- Indivior mergermixed
The merger of equals with Indivior could create a more diversified entity, but integration and regulatory approvals remain uncertain 2. The final effect depends on execution and market conditions.
Competitive position
Competition comes from large pharmaceutical companies, generic manufacturers and academic researchers developing or selling treatments for the same conditions 1. In ADHD, competition includes stimulants, non-stimulants and generic versions of branded drugs 1.
In Parkinson's and epilepsy, competing companies may offer alternative formulations or generics of the same active ingredient, which could reduce Supernus's market share 1. The company acknowledges that new competing products could prove more effective or cost-effective 1.
- Indivior PharmaceuticalsINDV
merger partner announced in August 2026, set to become part of the combined company 2
- BiogenBIIB
collaboration partner for ZURZUVAE in the US and rights holder outside the US 1
- Shionogi & Co., Ltd.
develops zuranolone in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea and received approval for major depressive disorder in Japan 1
- Generic manufacturers
have obtained marketing agreements for generic versions of Trokendi XR, Oxtellar XR and XADAGO 1
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Delisting notice
- Current report02 Nov 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.03 · Item 5.01 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Oct 2026Termination of a material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Oct 2026Results of operations
- Current report15 Oct 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 03 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 19 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.