olivLaw · US equity research
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO
Natural Gas Distribution · SIC 4924 · Vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)
Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distributor serving about 3.4 million customers across eight mainly southern states. For the nine months ended June 30, 2026, it reported net income of $1,227.6 million, or $7.33 per diluted share, and reaffirmed fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $8.40 - $8.50 per diluted share. Its capital spending and ratemaking outcomes are the main drivers of financial performance.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock was 176.45 USD (+1.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 29.8 bn USD, P/E 21.0 on diluted EPS of 8.41 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.19%, beta 0.08, 52-week range 156.24–192.29 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 879.1 m USD (+4.8% YoY), net income of 242.7 m USD (+30.2% YoY), diluted EPS 1.43 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.5
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 159.03 – 177.86
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 11.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 164.61 / 174.38
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.21 / 2.45
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.6% | −1.1% | +12.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.5% | −0.5% | +2.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −4.5% | +4.4% | −8.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.3% | +12.3% | −7.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.4% | +13.5% | −12.1 pp | +3.9% |
| 3 years | +58.3% | +76.4% | −18.1 pp | +40.1% |
| 5 years | +87.7% | +63.7% | +24.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 657.9 m | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 838.8 m | 737.5 m | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 879.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | — | 234.0 m | 779.2 m | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | 185.0 m | 459.5 m | 628.9 m | 252.1 m | 219.5 m | 514.8 m | 764.8 m | 320.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 173.5 m | 180.5 m | 182.8 m | 185.8 m | 185.7 m | 194.6 m | 195.7 m | 201.5 m |
| Interest expense | 42.2 m | 52.9 m | 50.0 m | 41.5 m | 27.2 m | 33.4 m | 48.7 m | 33.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 159.4 m | 431.2 m | 603.1 m | 230.6 m | 213.1 m | 503.6 m | 733.6 m | 303.3 m |
| Income tax | 25.4 m | 79.3 m | 117.5 m | 44.2 m | 38.2 m | 100.6 m | 151.7 m | 60.6 m |
| Net income | 134.0 m | 351.9 m | 485.6 m | 186.4 m | 174.9 m | 403.0 m | 581.9 m | 242.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.86 ≈ | 2.23 | 3.03 | 1.16 | 1.07 ≈ | 2.44 | 3.47 | 1.43 |
| Operating cash flow | 330.7 m | 282.0 m | 922.9 m ≈ | 496.4 m ≈ | 348.1 m | 308.1 m | 723.5 m ≈ | 639.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 808.0 m | 891.2 m | 839.7 m | 866.9 m | 963.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 126.2 m | 135.5 m | 138.4 m ≈ | 138.4 m ≈ | 141.4 m | 160.4 m | 164.1 m ≈ | 166.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 58 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 17.1, median 20.3, max 26.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.9% | −6.9% | −2.8% | +20.8% | +23.3% | +1.8% | −2.6% | +12.9% |
| Net income | 603.1 m | 511.4 m | 601.4 m | 665.6 m | 774.4 m | 885.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | +52.1% | −15.2% | +17.6% | +10.7% | +16.4% | +14.4% | +17.7% | +14.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.43 | 4.35 | 4.89 | 5.12 | 5.60 | 6.10 | 6.83 | 7.46 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +45.6% | −19.9% | +12.4% | +4.7% | +9.4% | +8.9% | +12.0% | +9.2% |
| net % | 19.4% | 17.6% | 21.3% | 19.5% | 18.4% | 20.7% | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| Free cash flow | -342.9 m | -724.7 m | -897.7 m | -3.1 bn | -1.5 bn | 653.8 m | -1.2 bn | -1.5 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 202.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 11.8 m USD
- Net debt
- -190.9 m USD
- Equity
- 13.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 28.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 0.77x
- ROE
- 9.3%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- -32.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 658.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2023derived |
| Operating income | 824.1 m | 905.0 m | 921.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 429.8 m | 478.0 m | 535.7 m | 604.3 m | 670.0 m | 734.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 84.5 m | 83.6 m | 102.8 m | 137.3 m | 190.6 m | 171.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 746.8 m | 819.3 m | 851.9 m | 999.6 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 145.4 m | 153.7 m | 77.5 m | 113.8 m | 192.9 m | 279.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 601.4 m | 665.6 m | 774.4 m | 885.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.89 | 5.12 | 5.60 | 6.10 | 6.83 | 7.46 | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 122.9 m | 129.8 m | 138.1 m | 145.2 m | 152.7 m | 160.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.72 | 2.96 | 3.22 | 3.48 | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 20.8 m | 116.7 m | 51.6 m | 15.4 m | 307.3 m | 202.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 230.6 m | 343.0 m | 363.7 m | 328.7 m | 365.9 m | 375.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 471.3 m | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 885.8 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 731.3 m | 731.3 m | 731.3 m | 731.3 m | 731.3 m | 731.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | 0 | 92.2 m | 82.8 m | 75.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 15.4 bn | 19.6 bn | 22.2 bn | 22.5 bn | 25.2 bn | 28.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 235.8 m | 423.2 m | 496.0 m | 336.1 m | 445.4 m | 506.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 185.0 m | 241.9 m | 0 | 11.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 782.4 m | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 6.8 bn † | 7.9 bn † | 9.4 bn † | 10.9 bn † | 12.2 bn † | 13.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | -1.1 bn | 977.6 m | 3.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -897.7 m ≈ | -3.1 bn ≈ | -1.5 bn ≈ | 653.8 m ≈ | -1.2 bn ≈ | -1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.9 bn | -2.0 bn | -2.4 bn | -2.8 bn | -2.9 bn | -3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 883.8 m | 3.1 bn | 1.4 bn | -696.8 m | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 282.4 m | 323.9 m | 375.9 m | 430.3 m | 493.0 m | 553.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 44 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 29.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation14
- Returns30
- Quality50
- Balance sheet80
- Growth49
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 45.73 – 176.89 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDA126.67 – 176.89 (Mid 152.53)7 companies used · median multiple 9.9x · quartiles 8.2x – 11.5xCQP, LNG, MDU, NFG, NJR, NWN, SR
- Peers: P/E98.45 – 165.21 (Mid 136.00)10 companies used · median multiple 16.2x · quartiles 11.7x – 19.6xCQP, EE, LNG, MDU, NFG, NJR, NWN, OGS, SR, VG
- Dividend discount (DDM)45.73 – 61.50 (Mid 52.46)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 44/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.4% | 50 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 28.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -144.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.8% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.0% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.0x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 12.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 1 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.0x | 10 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 11.5x | 29 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -6.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth49/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial30/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation14/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ATMOS ENERGY CORP (ATO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.9%; net margin 28.5%; ROE 9.8%; net debt/EBITDA -0.0x.
The estimated value range is 98.45–165.21 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 136.00 USD, the price of 176.45 USD leaves a potential of -22.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -29.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 28.5%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.0x
- Interest coverage: 12.8x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -144.1%
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- P/E (TTM): 21.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 11.5x
- FCF yield: -6.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNGCheniere Energy, Inc. | 59.6 bn | 20.3 | 45.7% | 13.1% | +27.2% | +40% / +60% |
| ATOAtmos Energy Corp | 29.8 bn | 21.0 | 9.8% | 28.5% | +12.9% | +1% / +58% |
| CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | 27.4 bn | 8.4 | — | 28.1% | +23.6% | +4% / −8% |
| NFGNational Fuel Gas Company | 7.3 bn | 10.6 | 19.6% | 26.9% | +17.1% | −7% / +51% |
| NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation | 5.6 bn | 15.2 | 14.5% | 24.0% | +9.9% | +15% / +30% |
| SRSpire Inc. | 5.3 bn | 14.9 | 10.3% | 13.9% | −4.5% | +2% / +48% |
| OGSONE Gas, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 17.5 | 8.7% | — | +42.5% | −2% / +43% |
| MDUMdu Resources Group Inc | 4.2 bn | 20.8 | 7.0% | 10.7% | +6.7% | −7% / +87% |
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | 2.2 bn | 17.1 | 8.3% | 9.7% | +11.8% | +4% / +40% |
| NFENew Fortress Energy Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -533.9% | -148.7% | −36.2% | +234% / −89% |
| SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc. | 71.2 m | — | -14.0% | -17.4% | −6.9% | −18% / −16% |
| CETYClean Energy Technologies, Inc. | 10.4 m | — | -76.3% | -245.9% | −63.8% | −53% / −96% |
| VGVenture Global, Inc. | — | 9.1 | 54.7% | 22.3% | +176.9% | +61% / unavailable |
| EEExcelerate Energy, Inc | — | 26.8 | — | — | +44.3% | +22% / +105% |
| UGPUltrapar Holdings Inc. | — | — | 16.5% | 1.8% | +5.9% | +36% / +10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ATO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 102.18 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 180.70 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 272.27 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 97.83 Total return -40% · Per year -15% | 194.80 Total return 17% · Per year 5% | 322.46 Total return 92% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 93.67 Total return -39% · Per year -9% | 210.00 Total return 31% · Per year 6% | 381.90 Total return 133% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 48.70
- Net margin± 34.09
- Annual revenue growth± 28.16
- Annual dilution± 2.86
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distributor serving about 3.4 million customers across eight mainly southern states 13. For the nine months ended June 30, 2026, it reported net income of $1,227.6 million, or $7.33 per diluted share 23, and reaffirmed fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $8.40 - $8.50 per diluted share 3. Its capital spending and ratemaking outcomes are the main drivers of financial performance 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is a natural gas-only distributor with a large customer base and an extensive pipeline network 1. Mechanisms that reduce regulatory lag support margin stability 12. Its capital structure is solid, with a high equity share and available liquidity 3.
- WNA mechanisms reduce the effect of weather on residential and commercial revenues, making revenues more predictable 1. Nine-month results for fiscal 2026 show higher net income supported by rate outcomes 2.
- The company holds long-term franchises in most of the communities it serves and has a history of renewing them 1. This combination supports continuity of operations over time.
Weaknesses
- Operations are concentrated in Texas, exposing the company to economic and regulatory conditions in one major state 1. Large capital spending creates ongoing financing needs in capital markets 12.
- Regulatory lag remains a risk, and rate approvals can be delayed or reduced 1. Higher bad debt, employee and depreciation costs have weighed on some periods 12.
- The company relies on many suppliers and transportation contracts, which could complicate supply during peak periods 1.
Opportunities
- The extensive safety and reliability program could expand the rate base if regulators continue to approve recovery 12. Projects in progress could add operating income if approved 23.
- Population growth in served communities could support long-term demand 1. Expanding pipeline and storage activity could add revenue if existing infrastructure is used effectively 1.
- Modernizing the network and reducing regulatory lag could improve returns on investment if ratemaking tools remain in place 12.
Threats
- Changes in federal energy policy or safety rules could raise costs and reduce revenues 1. Ending ratemaking mechanisms would increase regulatory lag 1.
- Competition from electricity and from industrial customers who reduce use or switch sources could affect volumes 1. Difficult economic conditions could push customers toward other energy sources 1.
- Cyberattacks, extreme weather and safety incidents could create uninsured costs and damage public confidence 1.
Risks
- Regulatory laghigh
Decisions by regulators could delay or reduce recovery of investments, and ending rate mechanisms could increase lag 1.
- Federal and safety oversighthigh
Increased federal oversight and safety requirements for pipelines could add operating and capital costs without certainty of full recovery 1.
- Concentration in Texasmedium
Dependence on one state exposes the company to political and economic developments there, which could affect results if major changes occur 1.
- Cybersecuritymedium
Attacks on information systems could disrupt operations and lead to data exposure, affecting reputation and costs 1.
- Gas supply and transport capacitymedium
Disruptions at suppliers, interstate pipelines or storage facilities could limit the company's ability to meet customer demand 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A multi-year investment program focused on safety could expand the rate base if regulators approve cost recovery 12.
- Nine-month fiscal 2026 results and reaffirmed guidance could point to stable financial performance if the trend holds 23.
- Annual rate mechanisms and WNA protections reduce sensitivity of revenues to weather and regulatory delays, which could support earnings predictability 1.
What would break the thesis
- If regulators reject or reduce rate requests, revenue growth could slow, particularly for projects still under review 12.
- Substantial external financing needs could expose the company to harsher capital market conditions if access to funding worsens 12.
- Compliance and cybersecurity costs could rise faster than the costs recovered through rates, potentially squeezing margins 1.
What to watch
- Regulatory decisions on pending rate requests, including Mid-Tex and MississippiQ1 2027
- Capital expenditures compared with fiscal 2026 guidance of about $4.2 billion2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distributor headquartered in Dallas that delivers gas through regulated sales and transportation arrangements to about 3.4 million residential, commercial, public authority and industrial customers 1. It also operates one of the largest intrastate pipeline systems in Texas based on miles of pipe 1. Its operating strategy focuses on modernizing the business and infrastructure while reducing regulatory lag, with a stated vision of being the safest provider of natural gas services 1.
In fiscal 2025 the company spent $3.6 billion on capital expenditures, with about 87 percent invested to improve safety and reliability of its distribution and transportation systems 1. For 2026 to 2030 it anticipates spending about $26 billion, with more than 80 percent dedicated to safety and reliability 1. Recovery of this program depends on ratemaking mechanisms that reduce lag 12.
Trends
- Safety and reliability investmentmixed
Regulatory pressure on pipeline safety supports a large investment program that could generate higher rate base if regulators allow timely recovery 1. If recovery remains fast, the spending could support earnings growth 1.
- Ratemaking tools and faster cost recoverytailwind
Annual formula rates and infrastructure programs reduce regulatory lag, which could support revenues if regulators keep these tools in place 12. Changing or ending them could increase lag 1.
- Compliance and cybersecurity costsheadwind
Higher safety, pipeline integrity and cybersecurity requirements add costs, and there is no certainty that all such costs will be recovered through rates 1. Unrecovered costs could weigh on margins 1.
- Energy transition and climate policymixed
Legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or fossil fuels, along with changes in federal energy policy, could affect long-term demand 12. The effect is uncertain and depends on future policy 1.
Competitive position
In residential and commercial markets, Atmos Energy competes with other energy products, mainly electricity for heating, water heating and cooking, and with propane 1. In industrial markets, customers could switch to alternative energy or bypass the system through special contracts with lower unit costs 1. New pipelines in the service area could intensify competition in the pipeline business 1.
Competition is limited by the regulated structure of the business, but pressure from electricity and from industrial customers seeking lower unit costs remains a risk 1. In transportation and storage, rivals include other intrastate pipelines and gas marketers 1.
- Electricity providers
Main competing energy product for heating, water heating and cooking in residential and commercial markets 1.
- Propane
Alternative energy product for residential and commercial customers, cited as a competing product 1.
- Other intrastate pipelines in Texas
Could compete for transportation and storage services, particularly as new pipelines are built in the service area 1.
- Gas marketers and intermediaries
Can arrange transportation, storage and other services for customers, creating competition in the pipeline segment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Atmos Ascent vs. Atmos Summit: The Summit is better—but not for everyoneThe Points Guy · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Atmos Rewards Ascent Visa Signature review: Valuable points and solid perks for Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines flyersThe Points Guy · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Atmos Rewards Summit Visa card review: Stellar value for more than just Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines loyalistsThe Points Guy · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- New offers on Atmos Rewards credit cards: Earn up to 100,000 points, companion fares and moreThe Points Guy · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- How to pick the best Atmos Rewards accrual method for youThe Points Guy · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- Alaska and Hawaiian expand 'Atmos Communities' with 6 new options to save and earnThe Points Guy · 03 Oct 2026 · EN
- Alaska plots credit card with no annual fee, drops hints about next Atmos transfer partnerThe Points Guy · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
- Pick how you earn points: Alaska's new Atmos Rewards 'choice accrual' starts this weekThe Points Guy · 29 Sept 2026 · EN
- Alaska Airlines Atmos Rewards program: How to earn and redeem points, elite status and moreThe Points Guy · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Atmos Energy Stock Underperforming the Dow?Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Redmi Note 17 Pro Max 5G: Acustică stereo cu moduri Dolby Atmos sau Sunet Xiaomi și opțiune 400% volum - Mobilissimo.Surge — Google News · 16 Sept 2026 · RO
- Atmos Summit card: Why it's the most rewarding airline card to maximize international travelThe Points Guy · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Baby on board: Alaska Airlines Atmos Rewards just made it much cheaper to fly with lap infants on award ticketsThe Points Guy · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Fly to Tokyo and London from 20,000 points with the September Atmos Rewards Global GetawaysThe Points Guy · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- Why 7,500-point economy awards are my go-to Atmos Rewards redemptionThe Points Guy · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- De ce nu primești sunet 5.1 sau Atmos de pe Netflix, Max, Disney+ sau Apple TV+Profit.ro · 01 Sept 2026 · RO
- Why Atmos Energy (ATO) Lost Its Investment AppealYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- De la Kalașnikov și BTR la Piranha, ATMOS, Humvee și drone. Schimbarea la față a Armatei Republicii MoldovaDefenseRomania.ro · 28 Aug 2026 · RO
- Cum verifici dacă televizorul tău transmite Dolby Atmos prin HDMI eARCProfit.ro · 27 Aug 2026 · RO
- Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Atmos Energy Stock Will Climb or Sink?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 30 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Atmos Energy Corporation · 14 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Atmos Energy Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Atmos Energy Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.