olivLaw · US equity research
Ultrapar Holdings Inc. UGP
Natural Gas Distribution · SIC 4924 · Vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)
Ultrapar Holdings is a Brazilian holding company that runs Ipiranga (fuel distribution), Ultragaz (LPG and new energy sources), Ultracargo (liquid bulk storage) and Hidrovias (waterway logistics). Net revenues reached R$142,369.5 million in fiscal 2025, but margins face pressure from competition, dependence on Petrobras and a restrictive monetary cycle.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ultrapar Holdings Inc. (UGP) stock was 5.60 USD (−0.71% on the day), with beta 0.61, 52-week range 3.63–7.97 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 19.2
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.22 – 8.95
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.10 · band width 52.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.22 / 5.95
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.48 / -0.25
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −27.9% | −2.0% | −25.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.5% | −2.2% | −8.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.5% | +4.3% | −10.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +48.5% | +10.6% | +38.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +42.5% | +10.5% | +32.0 pp | +2.8% |
| 3 years | +29.3% | +73.7% | −44.3 pp | +42.7% |
| 5 years | +145.6% | +61.7% | +83.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 79.2 bn | 90.7 bn | 83.0 bn | 74.1 bn | 109.7 bn | 143.6 bn | 126.0 bn | 133.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +3.2% | +14.5% | −8.5% | −10.8% | +48.2% | +30.9% | −12.2% | +5.9% |
| Net income | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 373.5 m | 893.4 m | 850.5 m | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | −0.7% | −24.6% | −67.5% | +139.2% | −4.8% | +111.7% | +35.5% | −3.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.40 | 1.05 | 0.34 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 1.64 | 2.21 | 2.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −0.8% | −24.7% | −67.5% | +138.5% | −4.9% | +111.4% | +34.7% | −4.3% |
| net % | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Free cash flow | 436.9 m | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.8 bn | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 2.1 bn BRL
- Financial debt
- 10.7 bn BRL
- Net debt
- 8.7 bn BRL
- Equity
- 15.8 bn BRL
- Total assets
- 39.6 bn BRL
- Debt / equity
- 0.68x
- Current ratio
- 1.53x
- ROE
- 15.8%
- ROA
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (BRL)
Margins
Income statement · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 83.0 bn | 74.1 bn | 109.7 bn | 143.6 bn | 126.0 bn | 133.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 78.2 bn | 70.1 bn | 104.8 bn | 136.3 bn | 116.7 bn | 123.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 4.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.9 bn | 7.4 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Research & development | 61.6 m | 63.7 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2021verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 551.8 m | 595.5 m | 653.1 m | 732.2 m | 840.4 m | 861.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 1.0 bn | 908.0 m | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.4 bn | 951.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 470.0 m | 304.5 m | 188.0 m | 341.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 373.5 m | 893.4 m | 850.5 m | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 1.64 | 2.21 | 2.11 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.77 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025derived |
Balance sheet · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | 36.8 m | 57.0 m | 56.2 m | 174.2 m | 263.8 m | 294.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 15.1 bn | 17.5 bn | 25.0 bn | 18.6 bn | 18.6 bn | 16.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 7.6 bn | 8.0 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2021verified |
| Total assets | 31.2 bn | 36.3 bn | 39.0 bn | 36.4 bn | 38.3 bn | 39.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.2 bn | 2.7 bn | — | — | 4.7 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 14.1 bn | 13.5 bn | 8.4 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.2 bn | 9.2 bn | 12.6 bn | 12.8 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 9.8 bn | 9.9 bn | 10.5 bn | 12.2 bn | 14.0 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 720.8 m | 750.6 m | 1.0 bn | 929.2 m | 1.0 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.8 bn | -2.1 bn | 724.1 m | 7.9 bn | -1.0 bn | -6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.9 bn | -592.3 m | -3.4 bn | -6.9 bn | -2.5 bn | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 596.4 m | 284.8 m | 705.8 m | 638.3 m | 400.0 m | 833.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.8% | 25 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 115.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.8% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 39.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 30.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial61/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth78/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC. (UGP). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 133.5 bn BRL in 2024; YoY growth 5.9%; net margin 1.8%; ROE 16.5%.
The estimated value range is 17.27–26.60 BRL per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 115.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 39.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 30.6%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 1.8%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNGCheniere Energy, Inc. | 63.5 bn | 21.7 | 45.7% | 13.1% | +27.2% | +49% / +71% |
| CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | 30.5 bn | 9.3 | — | 28.1% | +23.6% | +16% / +2% |
| ATOAtmos Energy Corp | 29.4 bn | 20.7 | 9.8% | 28.5% | +12.9% | −1% / +53% |
| NFGNational Fuel Gas Company | 7.3 bn | 10.6 | 19.6% | 26.9% | +17.1% | −7% / +51% |
| NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation | 5.6 bn | 15.2 | 14.5% | 24.0% | +9.9% | +15% / +30% |
| SRSpire Inc. | 5.3 bn | 14.9 | 10.3% | 13.9% | −4.5% | +2% / +48% |
| OGSONE Gas, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 17.5 | 8.7% | — | +42.5% | −2% / +43% |
| MDUMdu Resources Group Inc | 4.2 bn | 20.8 | 7.0% | 10.7% | +6.7% | −7% / +87% |
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | 2.2 bn | 17.1 | 8.3% | 9.7% | +11.8% | +4% / +40% |
| NFENew Fortress Energy Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -533.9% | -148.7% | −36.2% | +234% / −89% |
| SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc. | 71.2 m | — | -12.7% | -14.1% | −6.9% | −18% / −16% |
| CETYClean Energy Technologies, Inc. | 10.4 m | — | -76.3% | -245.9% | −63.8% | −53% / −96% |
| VGVenture Global, Inc. | — | 9.1 | 54.7% | 22.3% | +176.9% | +61% / unavailable |
| EEExcelerate Energy, Inc | — | 26.8 | — | — | +44.3% | +22% / +105% |
| UGPUltrapar Holdings Inc. | — | — | 16.5% | 1.8% | +5.9% | +42% / +29% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for UGP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (18 Jun 2026).
In brief
Ultrapar Holdings is a Brazilian holding company that runs Ipiranga (fuel distribution), Ultragaz (LPG and new energy sources), Ultracargo (liquid bulk storage) and Hidrovias (waterway logistics). Net revenues reached R$142,369.5 million in fiscal 2025 1, but margins face pressure from competition, dependence on Petrobras and a restrictive monetary cycle 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds leading positions in fuel distribution, LPG and bulk storage, backed by extensive networks and a broad customer base 1.
- A portfolio diversified across mobility, energy and logistics gives several revenue sources and better absorption of sector shocks 1.
- The holding structure and capital discipline aim to concentrate resources in sectors with growth potential 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expansion into electricity, CNG and biomethane could open new revenue streams on the existing customer base 1.
- Growth in Brazilian agriculture could support demand for waterway and storage services through Hidrovias and Ultracargo 1.
- Expansion of Ultracargo terminals, including on the biofuel chain, could strengthen its logistics position 1.
Risks
- Dependence on Petrobrashigh
Petrobras supplies most of the LPG and fuels in Brazil, and an interruption in supply would immediately affect the ability to serve customers 1.
- Leverage and refinancinghigh
High consolidated gross debt may require a large part of cash flow and could make refinancing harder if the credit rating weakens 1.
- Competition and anticompetitive practicesmedium
Intense rivalry and tax evasion in fuel distribution can reduce volumes and margins, and CADE investigations remain open 1.
- Operational disruptionsmedium
Terminals, storage and transport can be shut down by weather events, social conflicts or road blockades, affecting deliveries 1.
- Macroeconomic and currency riskmedium
Inflation, the SELIC rate and the exchange rate affect costs and dollar-linked debt, and market volatility can weigh on results 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Ipiranga sustains its operational recovery and Ultragaz shifts its mix toward energy, results could become steadier than in the past 1.
- A leading position in liquid bulk terminals and Ultracargo's expansion could support long-term revenue, especially on the biofuel chain 1.
- If the monetary cycle eases, financing costs could fall and lighten the debt burden and financial result 1.
What would break the thesis
- If Petrobras further changes its pricing policy or reduces supply, distributor margins could fall quickly 1.
- High debt and a negative financial result could limit flexibility and investment capacity if interest rates stay high 1.
- Energy transition and competition from natural gas or electrification could reduce demand for traditional products over the long term 1.
What to watch
- Ipiranga margin trend and Petrobras pricing policyQ1 2027
- Gross debt level and financing cost after the SELIC cut2027
- Pace of Hidrovias integration and its operating resultsnext 10-K
- Status of CADE investigations into fuel distribution2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (18 Jun 2026).
The business
Ultrapar operates as a holding company that redefined its portfolio after divesting Oxiteno and Extrafarma in 2022, focusing on mobility, energy and logistics infrastructure 1. Ipiranga is the largest segment, and Ultragaz and Ipiranga together generate over 90% of consolidated revenue 1. In 2025 the holding gained control of Hidrovias, whose stake reached 58.72% at year end 1.
Ultrapar operates as a holding company that redefined its portfolio after divesting Oxiteno and Extrafarma in 2022, focusing on mobility, energy and logistics infrastructure 1. Ipiranga is the largest segment, and Ultragaz and Ipiranga together generate over 90% of consolidated revenue 1. In 2025 the holding gained control of Hidrovias, whose stake reached 58.72% at year end 1.
Capital structure is significant: consolidated gross debt was R$20,093.3 million at 31 December 2025, against net cash from operating activities of R$5,452.5 million 1. The company stresses disciplined capital allocation and long-term portfolio management rather than volume growth at any cost 1.
In 2025 Ultracargo completed one of its largest expansion cycles, reaching 1,131 thousand m³ of installed capacity at year end, while Hidrovias divested its coastal navigation operations at a total enterprise value of R$715 million 1.
Segments
Ipiranga
Ipiranga is one of Brazil's largest fuel distributors, with net revenues of R$127,632.9 million in fiscal 2025 1. Sales volume rose slightly, with a 2% increase in the Otto cycle and 1% in diesel 1. The four-pillar turnaround plan (pricing, logistics, supply and network) remains central 1.
Market context
Trends
- Petrobras pricing policyheadwind
Since May 2023 Petrobras has set diesel and gasoline prices using national references as well as import parity 1. If import prices diverge materially from Petrobras prices, distributor margins and market share could be affected 1.
- Restrictive monetary cyclemixed
The SELIC rate rose during 2025 and was cut by 25 basis points in March 2026 to 14.75% 1. High financing costs weigh on the financial result, which was negative at R$1,167.4 million in 2025, though a lower rate could ease this pressure 1.
- Ultragaz energy expansiontailwind
Ultragaz is extending its portfolio into renewable electricity, CNG and biomethane, building on its reach and existing customer base 1. If these platforms reach scale, they could diversify revenue beyond LPG 1.
- Competition from alternative energyheadwind
LPG competes with natural gas, mainly for large industrial users, and oil-based fuels face biofuels and electric vehicles 1. The company says it cannot foresee the pace or which renewable sources will be adopted, which could affect long-term competitiveness 1.
Competitive position
Brazil's LPG market is highly competitive in all segments, and rivalry can lead to lower volumes, lower prices and higher marketing costs 1. Fuel distribution is equally contested, and small local and regional distributors have grown their share in recent years 1.
Tax evasion and fuel adulteration by some distributors distort prices, and CADE investigations into cartel conduct remain open across the sector 1. In 2025 the company obtained a favorable administrative decision in one cartel case but remains exposed to a market allocation investigation 1.
- Local and regional fuel distributors
Smaller companies that have increased their market share in recent years, intensifying competition in retail and wholesale 1.
- Natural gas suppliers
Natural gas is the main competing energy source for LPG, especially among large industrial consumers 1.
- Biofuel and electric vehicle providers
Renewable alternatives and electrification could reduce demand for oil-based fuels over the long term 1.
- Other liquid bulk terminal operators
Ultracargo presents itself as the largest independent operator, but competition at port and inland terminals remains relevant 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ultrapar Holdings Inc. · 29 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.